AA

2008 06 16 33.05 300 2979.12 2868.80 9936.73 3661.05 (8621)61038215 cheng@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038257 zhaoli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 2007 9 2001 2004 2007 6 5 此报告仅供诺安基金管理有限公司使用 1

... 5... 5... 7... 8... 12... 14... 14... 22... 25... 25... 25 1... 5 2... 5 3... 5 4 2007... 5 52008 ()... 6 6 2003-2007... 7 7... 8 8... 8 9... 9 10... 9 11... 9 12... 9 13... 9 14:... 10 15... 10 16 2004... 10 17... 11 18... 11 19... 11 20... 11 21... 12 22(/500 )... 12 2

23... 13 24... 13 25... 13 26... 13 27... 13 28... 14 29 2007... 14 30... 15 31 %... 15 32 %... 16 33 10... 16 34 10 %... 17 35... 17 36... 18 37... 18 38 36... 18 39 2007... 18 40... 18 41... 19 42... 19 43... 19 44... 20 45... 20 46... 20 47 2005 (%)... 21 48... 21 49 2006... 21 50... 21 51... 22 52... 23 53... 23 54... 23 55 2007 11... 24 56 2007 11... 24 57 2007 11... 24 58 2007 11... 24 59... 24 60... 24 3

61... 25 62... 25 63... 25 4

1 2 3 ( 2.6 /) + ++ + + ++ 2007 10 ( 2.3 /) 2007 2 ( 1.9 /) 1.76 / 6059.00 6059.00 6241.50 6241.50 6366.50 12480.00 11040.00 9120.00 8304.00 8304.00 6421.00 4981.00 2878.50 2062.50 1937.50 4 2007 ( / + ) 6092 12282 8423 640 7499 284 3859 11453 21.3 286 6092 1.88 11453 829 5

8423 3208 640 7499 49.6% 39.8% 3666 / 284 2006 5682 1817 2006 479 161 52008 () 6

2008 2.5 2.97 2.6 / 2.5 / 6 2003-2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3753 4258 4108 4024 4305 500 500 500 500 500 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 130 130 130 130 130 0 0 0 0 0 1356 1495 1471 1448 1643 5109 5753 5579 5472 5948 3676 4125 3989 3914 4144 600 600 600 600 600 180 180 180 180 180 100 100 100 100 100 120 120 120 120 120 200 200 200 200 200 1962 2081 2060 2041 2213 5638 6206 6049 5956 6357 5033 5616 5433 5336 5775 700 700 700 700 700 180 180 180 180 180 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 320 320 320 320 320 2248 2349 2232 2315 2466 7281 7965 7765 7651 8241 2006 20 () 404 30% 2003 3 7

6 (1 ) 30% 10% 10% 90% 7 8 + / 4 / 9.5 / 60 / 400 / 8

9 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 10 250 200 150 100 50 0 198212 198412 198612 198812 199012 199212 199412 199612 199812 200012 200212 200412 200612 198212 198412 198612 198812 199012 199212 199412 199612 199812 200012 200212 200412 200612 11 12 18 20 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15 14.5 14 2007 5 3 2007 6 3 2007 7 3 2007 8 3 2007 9 3 2007 10 3 2007 11 3 2007 12 3 2008 1 3 2008 2 3 2008 3 3 19 18 17 16 15 14 2007 5 10 2007 6 10 2007 7 10 2007 8 10 2007 9 10 2007 10 10 2007 11 10 2007 12 10 2008 1 10 2008 2 10 2008 3 10 13 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1994103 1995103 1996103 1997103 1998103 1999103 2000103 2001103 2002103 2003103 2004103 2005103 2006103 2007103 9

14: 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8274 10255 12998 17463 22606 27534 31934 35000 38000 3813 4463 5678 7661 10315 12500 13809 14820 15900 5364 6750 8303 10802 13341 16118 19183 21240 23159 9177 11213 13981 18463 23656 28618 32992 36060 39059 522 610 577 750 832 918 1030 1150 1260 10 43 28 20 25 32 33 65 75 51 41 77 91 91 65 74 57 51 563 608 626 821 898 951 1071 1142 1236 58 70 72 83 68 60 55 56 57 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 5 22 18 35 51 61 55 62 42 39 80 88 107 133 127 115 116 94 91 70% 15 16 2004 20-30% 40% 2.3% 1 1.47 11.13 2006 14.05% 20.5% 12.5%950 /650 / 46% 10

17 18 / 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 131 2006 331 2006 531 2006 731 2006 930 2006 11 30 2007 131 2007 331 2007 531 2007 731 2007 930 2007 11 30 2008 131 19 5-7 2007 4 1.76 8304 2062.5 7000-8000 2007 3 4 300-400 4 20% 5%-8% 2007 15% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4600 5274 5662 6873 8932 11080 12161 13632 14900 14.65% 7.35% 21.39% 29.96% 24.05% 9.75% 12.10% 9.30% 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 489 586.8 663.3 868.9 1042.7 1216 1300 1560 919 1122.9 1400.4 1588 1710 2865.8 3200 3840 200320042005 2007 9 11

21 22(/500 ) 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 2006 6 2006 7 2006 8 2006 9 2006 10 2006 11 2006 12 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2007 5 2007 6 2007 7 2007 8 2007 9 2007 10 2007 11 2007 12 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 2003 4 2003 7 2003 10 / 2004 1 2004 4 2004 7 2004 10 2005 1 2005 4 2005 7 2005 10 2006 1 2006 4 2006 7 2006 10 2007 1 2007 4 2007 7 2007 10 2008 1 2008 4 2001 2004 2007 6 10-20% 12 6 2 20 6 2005 12

23 40 50 20062007 2003 / / 2005 17853.17 4417.52 2474.40 106804.16 23260.31 2177.84 2006 20596.31 5279.90 2563.52 134917.84 28946.49 2145.49 2007 62038.32 17391.25 2803.31 98171.04 32394.23 3299.77 24 25 26 27 13

28 2001 19.56 4.27 15.29 2002 26.38 5.10 21.28 2003 31.50 4.89 26.61 2004 34.72 6.01 28.71 2005 32.00 6.98 25.02 2006 34.78 7.49 27.29 2007 29.87 13.46 16.41 29 2007 2006 2007 0.38 0.41 13.49 9.82 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 18.46 16.76 1.28 1.4 0.99 1.32 100 1-10 10-12 5 10 2006 2007 1995 63% 2004 74.6% 1.3 2005 72.3%2006 71.7% 1995 3.55% 2006 14.6% 1.0 1995 33.4% 2006 13.7% 1.8 14

30 1995 7.73 4.62 0.26 0.35 0.64 0.05 11.45 2000 14.49 9.94 1.12 0.49 1.06 0.16 13.67 2001 16.76 11.9 1.36 0.5 1.2 0.27 13.97 2002 21.37 15.72 1.8 0.55 1.19 0.33 17.96 2003 25.07 18.62 2.53 0.56 1.71 0.6 14.66 2004 25.25 18.83 2.9 0.51 1.98 0.78 12.75 2005 24.79 17.92 3.23 0.52 2.86 1.22 8.67 2006 25.54 18.32 3.72 0.5 3.15-8.11 % 12 13.34 27.37 3.3 15.6 31 % 5% 5% 1995-2000 98.9% 2000 97.8% 0.21 2000-2006 0.8 1995 0.05 2005 1.22 37.6% 10% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 2000 68.57 28.37 36.17 43.24 56.69 69.34 82.13 95.54 117.29 1.71 2001 80.06 34.34 43.26 50.96 66.07 8.66 97.81 111.6 131.15 1.64 2002 104.76 23.05 39.95 51.94 75.42 99.15 128.31 163.67 205.34 1.96 2003 124.7 29.61 47.01 66.24 95.63 122.9 153.33 189.32 228.01 1.83 2004 132.37 35.11 57.53 78.05 106.77 131.64 162.9 194.65 237.34 1.79 2005 138.62 39.44 62.06 82.73 110.8 140.44 173.23 206.79 248.28 1.79 2006 150.23 46.52 75.22 95.12 121.64 153.18 183.65 217.92 260.34 1.73 13.96 8.59 12.98 14.04 13.57 14.12 14.35 14.73 14.21-2000 10% 15

32 % 5% 5% 10% 20% 20% 20% 10 % 10% 2000 14.49 6.04 7.8 9.18 12.16 14.42 17.29 20.28 24.48 1.69 2001 16.76 7.31 9.07 10.89 14.01 16.72 20.3 23.31 27.05 1.61 2002 21.37 5.68 9.76 12.31 17.12 21.61 26.42 31.13 34.32 1.61 2003 25.07 7.79 11.33 15.42 21.51 25.78 30.88 35.08 37.03 1.48 2004 25.25 8.49 12.83 17.17 22.35 25.95 30.73 34.34 37.46 1.48 2005 24.79 8.81 12.71 16.73 21.42 25.98 30.66 34.86 36.64 1.48 2006 25.54 9.81 14.49 17.91 22.68 26.88 30.79 34.08 36.7 1.44 9.91 8.42 10.87 11.78 10.95 10.94 10.1 9.04 6.98-33 10 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2006 2006 114.22 282.74 339.39 279.86 73.55 200.9 270.43 269.24 48.26 178.33 246.88 267.34 43.77 111.42 168.05 187.78 39.59 104.48 159.61 176.72 36.57 98.59 156.29 175.09 35.18 84.25 155.28 173.07 32.54 81.66 154.65 171.83 31.79 79.74 154.26 160.25 31.46 70.66 152.34 159.06 15.9 28.87 38.86 68.82 2000-2006 10 16

34 10 % 1995 2006 2000 2006 15.9 129.09 20.97 51.99 175.09 11.67 22.16 175.09 20.67 27.87 83.86 10.53 16.85 124.17 19.91 43.43 129.09 10.41 23.63 171.83 19.77 40.32 117.88 10.24 20.06 117.88 17.47 43.35 124.17 10.04 31.33 176.72 17.03 43.28 123.22 9.98 31.3 173.07 16.82 63.02 171.83 9.55 28.58 149.13 16.21 50.91 133.19 9.14 24.17 123.22 15.96 65.18 157.28 8.34 26.75 135.05 15.86 58.6 137.93 8.09 35 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 17

36 37 25 14000 2.5 4000 / 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 / 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 08 1-2 232.55 29.35% 8.37 8.96% 17.94% 6.19 38 36 39 2007 36 2007 40 18

36 1968 GDP 2670 GDP 2000 41 42 43 19

44 GD GDP 2002~2003 GDP 01~03 2007 GDP 45 46 % 20

47 2005 (%) 48 60 50 UHT 100% 90% 80% 40 70% 60% 30 20 10 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 0% 49 2006 16 12.3 0.6 86.8 0.6 114.3 0.2 68.9 0.8 157.5 0.8 80.9 4.1 70.9 2.1 53.6 5.8 70 3.1 96.6 0.8 141.4 25 82.4 1.5 91.1 2 51 4.7 108.1 11.1 60.1 1.2 127.8 6.1 48.1 6.7 111.1 2.1 105.4 25 38.3 78 0.4 105.8 50 18 16 14 12 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% / 10 8 20.00% 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007H 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% 21

51 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20,964 22,492 23,908 26,213 28,353 30,772 34,199 38,075 UHT 7,099 10,353 14,065 18,549 22,247 26,671 32,534 38,742 5,859 7,272 9,912 13,674 19,079 22,670 26,710 30,734 10,400 11,141 11,802 12,922 14,176 15,489 17,240 19,068 5,006 6,036 7,416 8,793 10,332 12,317 14,798 17,512 7,466 8,338 9,194 9,905 10,802 11,766 13,127 14,529 3,420 3,695 3,956 4,127 4,342 4,571 4,917 5,279 60,214 69,326 80,254 94,183 109,331 124,257 143,525 163,939 % of total market 34.8 32.4 29.8 27.8 25.9 24.8 23.8 23.2 UHT 11.8 14.9 17.5 19.7 20.3 21.5 22.7 23.6 9.7 10.5 12.4 14.5 17.5 18.2 18.6 18.7 17.3 16.1 14.7 13.7 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.6 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.7 12.4 12.0 11.5 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.9 5.7 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 SARS 3500 3.5 47062 57% 22

52 P1= 1.76 / P2=0.20 / P3=4.74-6.00 / P4=5.29-6.80 / 1.96 / 53 54 16% 11% 14% 6% 8% 13% 23% 45% 64% 2006 100 16.24 1.4 3.75 3.25% 3.20 2.3 3 23

55 2007 11 56 2007 11 4% 4% 7% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% 3% 2% 21% 6% 34% 7% 14% 26% 7% 15% 16% 18% 57 2007 11 58 2007 11 6% 6% 6% 3% 3% 3% 33% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 36% 9% 11% 20% 7% 10% 11% 13% 59 60 1400 30.00% 60.00% 1200 25.00% 50.00% 1000 800 600 400 200 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.00% 24

61 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 5.32% 5.06% 4.34% 4.04 3.44 % % N.A 7.22% 5.69% 5.70 5.80 % % 5.42 4.58 5.18% 2.18% 11.71% % % 5.02 5.51 3.48% 3.14% 4.70% % % 5.74 7.67 9.07% 7.54% 3.62% % % 62 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 5 63 25

26

612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 36 5% 36-5%5% 36 5% 27