Li An

41 4 2017 7 Vol. 41 No. 4 July 2017 82 Population Research 2013 100872 Hukou Relocation andregistered Population Urbanization Hou Yajie Abstract In the Chinese context migration is defined to be move withhukou relocation which is closely associated with urbanization. Over the past two years the central government has attached great importance to the urbanization progress of the registered residents. A new round of household registration system reform was launched in 2014. Based on the data of hukou registration transition in 2013 this study examines patterns and determinants of household migration and urbanization of registered population. Results indicate that the difference ofhukou status between rural and urban areas was the fundamental cause in holding back household migration. Moreover migration to big cities is preferred by elites while the medium - sized cities and small towns are lack of attraction for these people. Keywords hukou Migration Registered Population Urbanization City Hierarchy Entry Threshold Author Hou Yajie is PhD Student School of Sociology and Population Studies Renmin University of China Beijing 100872. Email hbmonkey@ ruc. edu. cn

4 83 1958 20 90 2014 7 2020 1 1 Li An 2009 20 90 2010 1. 1 2016 8 7 9 2020 2300 2015 2170 823 1995

84 41 1. 2 2003 21 3 Seabrook 1996 1. 3 20 80 1997 1978 ~ 2007 2173 19246 20% 45% 2008 2 1958 Wu Treiman 2004 Wu Treiman 2008 Cheng Selden 1994 2006 2006 2006

4 85 1 2 3 3. 1 18 60 18 ~ 60 3. 2 2013 2013 2013 3500 1 28555 18 ~ 60 19849 7 7 3. 3 2014 2014 51

86 41 1 2010 656 287 369 2016 2014 2013 1 2013 1 2013 Table 1 Number of Cities by City Size 2013 1000 3 500 1000 4 300 500 Ⅰ 12 100 300 Ⅱ 50 50 100 96 20 50 Ⅰ 252 20 Ⅱ 241 2014 51 2014 2014 2014 21 2014 12 2013 4 3. 4 multinomial logistic regression 6 1 2014 1000 500 1000 100 500 300 500 Ⅰ 100 300 Ⅱ 50 100 50 20 50 Ⅰ 20 Ⅱ

4 87 ln ln ln ( ) P Y = 1 X P Y = 0 X = α 1 ( ) P Y = 1 X P Y = 0 X = α 2 ( ) P Y = 1 X P Y = 0 X = α 5 + K k = 1 + K k = 1 + K k = 1 b k1 X k b k2 X k b k5 X k 5 log odds 4 4. 1 2 36 11 33 ~ 37 81. 8 1 /4 70% 4. 2 3 1 2 3 1 4 2 3 4 1 21. 4% exp 0. 194-1 = 0. 2141 21. 2% exp 0. 192-1 = 0. 2117

88 41 2 Table 2 Description of Household Migrants n = 2155 n = 2017 n = 4406 n = 2694 n = 3788 n = 4789 n = 8706 34. 30 34. 50 34. 88 36. 71 35. 46 33. 69 33. 45 11. 13 11. 53 10. 92 11. 31 11. 38 10. 89 11. 16 % 47. 80 46. 21 45. 3 44. 28 42. 34 38. 57 35. 09 52. 20 53. 79 54. 7 55. 72 57. 66 61. 43 64. 91 % 0. 88 0. 25 0. 34 0. 41 1. 48 2. 07 2. 76 4. 08 4. 07 7. 17 14. 51 15. 42 23. 80 32. 37 16. 71 20. 77 23. 15 34. 26 37. 06 38. 73 46. 71 27. 33 22. 41 23. 85 25. 80 25. 11 17. 54 10. 58 51. 00 52. 50 45. 48 25. 02 20. 93 17. 85 7. 58 % 42. 78 42. 04 38. 18 30. 55 30. 39 32. 03 27. 93 57. 22 57. 96 61. 82 69. 45 69. 61 67. 97 72. 07 % 4. 04 4. 02 6. 20 3. 56 7. 37 14. 55 12. 96 95. 96 95. 98 93. 80 96. 44 92. 63 85. 45 87. 04 % 22. 92 11. 45 11. 21 7. 31 9. 05 9. 54 8. 63 6. 22 12. 25 14. 16 6. 94 9. 11 11. 94 9. 69 33. 50 21. 96 31. 73 27. 28 11. 03 10. 82 18. 08 37. 35 54. 34 42. 90 58. 46 70. 80 67. 70 63. 60 % 70. 95 1. 04 1. 25 1. 04 0. 87 0. 65 1. 26 2. 55 75. 11 1. 48 1. 30 1. 50 1. 19 0. 75 6. 50 3. 27 70. 72 2. 64 4. 59 5. 62 4. 18 2. 97 3. 72 2. 66 69. 45 1. 93 2. 44 4. 05 4. 22 4. 07 5. 70 3. 12 70. 17 7. 58 13. 07 5. 71 6. 35 8. 33 10. 21 6. 52 60. 87 17. 88 7. 10 6. 45 9. 87 12. 25 14. 41 21. 65 58. 80

4 89 Table 3 3 Logistic = 0 Multinomial Logistic Regression Results of Obtaining Hukou in Mega - cities and Metropolitan Cities 1 2 3 4 = 0 = 0 6. 406 *** 1. 800 *** 6. 324 *** 1. 868 *** 13. 24 *** - 29. 62 13. 49 *** - 32. 77 0. 221 0. 310 0. 220 0. 312 1. 403 969. 0 1. 410 1925 2. 278 *** 5. 546 *** 2. 152 *** 5. 689 *** 5. 952 *** 9. 886 *** 6. 229 *** 10. 48 *** 0. 227 0. 183 0. 228 0. 183 0. 929 0. 730 0. 931 0. 737 1. 369 *** 0. 685 *** 1. 390 *** 0. 950 *** 5. 319 *** 1. 981 ** 5. 409 *** 2. 275 *** 0. 155 0. 179 0. 156 0. 183 0. 523 0. 800 0. 525 0. 804 1. 468 *** 1. 644 *** 1. 527 *** 1. 889 *** 3. 700 *** 2. 799 *** 3. 751 *** 3. 060 *** 0. 194 0. 186 0. 194 0. 190 0. 607 0. 598 0. 610 0. 605 0. 750 *** 0. 584 *** 0. 751 *** 0. 648 *** 0. 501-0. 703 0. 608-0. 428 0. 158 0. 162 0. 158 0. 165 0. 511 0. 557 0. 514 0. 565-1. 047 *** - 0. 975 *** - 1. 049 *** - 0. 951 *** - 1. 684 *** - 1. 904 *** - 1. 630 *** - 1. 629 *** 0. 136 0. 136 0. 136 0. 139 0. 406 0. 397 0. 409 0. 406 0. 0756 *** 0. 0964 *** 0. 0890 *** 0. 115 *** 0. 173 *** 0. 160 *** 0. 194 *** 0. 192 *** = 0 0. 00977 0. 00973 0. 01000 0. 00983 0. 0200 0. 0206 0. 0204 0. 0214 * - 0. 459 *** 1. 604-0. 481 *** 1. 766 0. 0776 51. 00 0. 0780 101. 3 * - 0. 267 *** - 0. 304 *** - 0. 290 *** - 0. 335 *** 0. 0552 0. 0438 0. 0553 0. 0443 * - 0. 287 *** - 0. 121 *** - 0. 289 *** - 0. 126 *** 0. 0332 0. 0471 0. 0333 0. 0475 * - 0. 185 *** - 0. 109 *** - 0. 184 *** - 0. 114 *** 0. 0402 0. 0392 0. 0403 0. 0400 * - 0. 0156 0. 0594-0. 0225 0. 0438 0. 0344 0. 0366 0. 0346 0. 0373 * 0. 0358 0. 0618 ** 0. 0314 0. 0429 0. 0286 0. 0283 0. 0288 0. 0292 = 0 LR chi2 34956. 57 35352. 36 36426. 85 36813. 79 Pseudo R2 0. 5067 0. 5125 0. 5280 0. 5337 N 19849 19849 19849 19849 1 * P < 0. 05 **P < 0. 01 ***P < 0. 001 2 3 3 1 4 5 1 Logistic 3 4 5 2 3 4 1

90 41 1 2 1 1 2 1 Figure 1 2 Expected Probability of Obtaining Figure 2 Expected Probability of Obtaining Hukou in Mega-cities Hukou in Metropolitan Cities 4. 3 4 4 2145 exp 7. 671 = 2145. 226 551 exp 6. 311 = 550. 5953 85% 1 - exp - 1. 874 = 0. 846 78% 1 - exp - 1. 534 = 0. 784 1 16. 3% 7. 2% 3

4 91 4 Table 4 Logistic = 0 Multinomial Logistic Regression Results of Obtaining Hukou in Big and Medium-sized Cities 1 2 3 4 = 0 = 0 1. 290 *** 0. 736 *** 1. 273 *** 0. 709 ** 2. 952 * 1. 008 3. 195 * 1. 115 0. 241 0. 278 0. 241 0. 278 1. 745 2. 159 1. 749 2. 163 1. 039 *** 0. 607 *** 1. 071 *** 0. 640 *** - 0. 491-0. 0875-0. 266-0. 0818 0. 199 0. 233 0. 199 0. 233 1. 404 1. 351 1. 404 1. 353 3. 263 *** - 0. 259 * 3. 377 *** - 0. 180 7. 588 *** 0. 407 7. 671 *** 0. 389 0. 0968 0. 157 0. 0977 0. 157 0. 338 0. 664 0. 340 0. 665 0. 962 *** 4. 118 *** 1. 083 *** 4. 179 *** 0. 793 6. 299 *** 0. 895 * 6. 311 *** 0. 149 0. 125 0. 150 0. 126 0. 537 0. 361 0. 538 0. 362 0. 471 *** - 0. 379 *** 0. 498 *** - 0. 372 *** - 0. 264-1. 222 *** - 0. 144-1. 175 *** 0. 106 0. 143 0. 108 0. 143 0. 321 0. 426 0. 324 0. 427-1. 141 *** - 1. 146 *** - 1. 129 *** - 1. 139 *** - 2. 025 *** - 1. 621 *** - 1. 874 *** - 1. 534 *** 0. 0847 0. 0958 0. 0860 0. 0960 0. 238 0. 253 0. 241 0. 254 0. 0731 *** 0. 0273 *** 0. 0887 *** 0. 0372 *** 0. 133 *** 0. 0586 *** 0. 151 *** 0. 0692 *** 0. 00671 0. 00825 0. 00690 0. 00841 0. 0142 0. 0174 0. 0145 0. 0176 = 0 * - 0. 135-0. 0381-0. 154-0. 0480 0. 0955 0. 118 0. 0958 0. 118 * 0. 0453 0. 0208 0. 0301 0. 0204 0. 0772 0. 0761 0. 0772 0. 0763 * - 0. 306 *** - 0. 0576-0. 305 *** - 0. 0528 0. 0221 0. 0405 0. 0224 0. 0406 * - 0. 0232-0. 177 *** - 0. 0235-0. 174 *** 0. 0342 0. 0269 0. 0344 0. 0270 * 0. 0310 0. 0559 * 0. 0239 0. 0527 0. 0236 0. 0324 0. 0239 0. 0325 * 0. 0629 *** 0. 0414 * 0. 0522 *** 0. 0346 0. 0187 0. 0225 0. 0190 0. 0226 = 0 LR chi2 34956. 57 35352. 36 36426. 85 36813. 79 Pseudo R2 0. 5067 0. 5125 0. 5280 0. 5337 N 19849 19849 19849 19849 1 * P < 0. 05 **P < 0. 01 ***P < 0. 001 2 3 4 5

92 41 6 5 3 Figure 3 4 Expected Probability of Obtaining Hukou in Big Cities Figure 4 Expected Probability of Obtaining Hukou in Medium-sized Cities 4. 4 5 1 2 3 4 4 1 4. 4% 1 - exp 0. 0434 = 0. 0444 2. 5 exp 0. 937 = 2. 522 36. 5 exp 3. 598 = 36. 525 5% exp - 3. 033 = 0. 0482 4 5 6

4 93 Table 5 5 Logistic = 0 Multinomial Logistic Regression Results of Obtaining Hukou in Small Cities 1 2 3 4 = 0 = 0 0. 604 ** 0. 586 ** 2. 450 2. 477 0. 259 0. 259 1. 695 1. 702 0. 518 *** 0. 523 *** - 0. 482-0. 505 0. 200 0. 198 1. 122 1. 124 0. 102 0. 121-0. 0745-0. 111 0. 117 0. 117 0. 509 0. 510 0. 0671 0. 0827 0. 952 * 0. 937 * 0. 162 0. 162 0. 487 0. 486 2. 554 *** 2. 557 *** 3. 577 *** 3. 598 *** 0. 0819 0. 0817 0. 219 0. 219-1. 870 *** - 1. 867 *** - 3. 052 *** - 3. 033 *** 0. 0877 0. 0877 0. 234 0. 234 0. 0253 *** 0. 0295 *** 0. 0390 *** 0. 0434 *** 0. 00692 0. 00713 0. 0142 0. 0142 = 0 * - 0. 115-0. 118 0. 0938 0. 0942 * 0. 0468 0. 0476 0. 0634 0. 0635 * 0. 000396 0. 00353 0. 0310 0. 0311 * - 0. 0702 ** - 0. 0681 ** 0. 0346 0. 0345 * - 0. 0923 *** - 0. 0937 *** 0. 0191 0. 0190 * 0. 104 *** 0. 102 *** 0. 0198 0. 0198 = 0 LR chi2 34956. 57 35352. 36 36426. 85 36813. 79 Pseudo R2 0. 5067 0. 5125 0. 5280 0. 5337 N 19849 19849 19849 19849 1 * P < 0. 05 **P < 0. 01 ***P < 0. 001 2

94 41 5 6 Figure 5 Expected Probability of Obtaining Hukou in Small Cities Figure 6 Expected Probability of Obtaining Hukou in Small Towns 5 2013 3 1 2 2016 2 1 2014 2

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