6 3 Vol. 6 No. 3 2000 5 Market and Demographic Analysis May., 2000 :1006-4346(2000) 03-0001 - 17 1 2, (1, 100872 ;2 21, 100084) :,,,, : ; ; ; :C913. 13 :A Study on Marriage Squeeze in China GUO Zhi2gang 1,DENG Guo2sheng 2 (1 Institute of Population Research, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China ; 2 Development Research Academy for the 21 st Century, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) Abstract :Marriage squeeze becomes one of the hot issues in population transition of China. This paper proposes some new theoretical concepts, and suggests a new approach to measure marriage squeeze,which is applied to population data to analyze the marriage squeeze in China in the past and the near future. This paper also analyzes the consequences of marriage squeeze in the three aspects of proportion of lifetime unmarried,age of first marriage, and age difference between the couples. The analysis turns out that imbalance of sex ratio at birth in recent years will result in marriage squeeze in near future,but it may not be so severe as exaggerated in mass media. Key words :marriage squeeze ; sex ratio at birth ; age difference between couples ; sex ratio in marriage matching 80, 80, :1999-12 - 02 : (1954 - ), 1
2000 3,,,,,,, 1 111 1. 1. 1 (Marriage Market) (Mary Ann Lamanna and Agnes Riedmann,1991) [1 ],,,,,,,, (Marriage Squeeze),,, 11112,,,, : (1),, ;,,,, (2),,, ;, (3), 2
;,,,,, ;,,, 11113 ; (,,1995,1998) 112 [2 ][3 ] 11211, (Akers,1967 [4 ] ;Schoen,1983 [5 ] ),, ;,, 1 2 3 4 0, 85 %,,,, ;,, (1989),, [6 ],,,,,, 3
2000 3 1-2 (,1988) [7 ] 2-3 (,1983 [8 ] ;,1991 [9 ] ;,,1995 [10 ] ;,,1995 [11 ] ) ;, (,,1993) [12 ] ; (,1989) [13 ] 1982 1 1987 1 % 1990, 1 4, 60 % 70 %, - 14, 1982 1987 1990-14 - 14 23 (,1991 [14 ] ;,,1995 [15 ] ) 23 (,1983) [16 ] : 1 () 4 3 2 1 0-1 ( %) 13198 19121 19148 16186 18161 11186 100 11212,, x, x x ( 100),: P m x MR m x = 4 100 Pf y I x - y x - y = - 1 :MR m x x ; P m x x ; P f y x x - y y ; I x - y x - y,y y y ( 100),: MR f y = 4 Pm x I x - y x - y = - 1 P f y 100 :MR f y y ; 4 P f y y ; P m x y x - y x ;
I x - y x - y,,,, 2236 2034, 2034 2236,: 34 y = 20 4 Pm x x - y = - 1 I x - y MR = 36 4 100 Pf y I x - y x = 22 x - y = - 1 :MR ; 4 Pm x I x - y y ; x - y = - 1 4 Pf y I x - y x x - y = - 1 2 211 60,,, 60 21111 60 (1),1964 15-36 108,25-36 110 ( 2) 1964 15-36, 1964 15-36 [17 (1984) ],, 8 1933 117111, 108107 122118 118. 83 118165 112158 112151 127124 140 (, 1988) [18 ] 1940-1949 109 (,1986) [19 ] 1964 15-36 1928-1949, 60 2,1964 17-26 1953 6-15, (1938-1947 ) 1964, 1964 17-26 1964 17-26,1964 27-36 1953 16-25 ( ), 1964, ; 5
2000 3 2 1953 1964 1995 1953 1964 1995 1949 4 109138 15 111145 1995 0 116157 1948 5 110145 16 111179 1994 1 121108 1947 6 111187 17 108184 1993 2 121126 1946 7 112186 18 104146 1992 3 119117 1945 8 113184 19 106144 1991 4 115101 1944 9 115142 20 108181 1990 5 113101 1943 10 116163 21 108143 1989 6 109177 1942 11 116161 22 107197 1988 7 109185 1941 12 117157 23 109101 1987 8 109131 1940 13 118126 24 109194 1986 9 108199 1939 14 119166 25 112198 1985 10 107182 1938 15 118188 26 115130 1984 11 107191 1937 16 110194 27 114105 1983 12 108138 1936 17 105159 28 113127 1982 13 107198 1935 18 106110 29 112120 1981 14 107152 1934 19 108159 30 113129 1980 15 107162 1933 20 106138 31 112138 1979 16 107147 1932 21 105170 32 112189 1978 17 105165 1931 22 104143 33 112162 1977 18 104172 1930 23 104122 34 110188 1976 19 104161 1929 24 103167 35 110149 1975 20 99103 1928 25 104100 36 110114 1974 21 96168 :1953 1964 1995 1 %, 2 1938-1949 (1953 4-15,1964 15-26 ) 1980-1991 (1995 4-15 ) 4-15,1980-1991 80,, (2) 1964 15-36, 3,1935 0-29 ;1936 0-4 10-14,5-9 15-39 ;1957 11,0-39, 0-39 1928-1949 1964 15-36 6
3 1935 1936 1957 ( 100) 1935 1936 1957 0 - - 92186 0-4 92156 100193-1 - 4 - - 86173 5-9 79127 92119 78126 10-14 66188 111190 80122 15-19 62109 75183 79162 20-24 67136 82120 74160 25-29 58138 84148 71174 30-34 - 62139 78122 35-39 - 80174 87162 : 1 [M]1 :,19881 21112 60 60,, 110 ( 2 1964 ),, 60, 1965 60 1965 1964 1965,1965 109191,,22-36, 26-32 110116,20-34 21113 60 (1) 1),60 109191,22-36 (1929-1943 ) 1929-1943, 1987 44-58, 6 %,1995 52-66, 415 %, 9515 %, 1995 64 (1931 ) 97125 %,1982 60-79 ( ) 97144 %,, 95 % (United Nations,1990) [20 ], 1965 10 %, 50,, (,1988), [21 ] 2) 1953 103128, 1965 109191,1965 1953 6163, 1965 1953 60 7
2000 3, 1988 2, 50 22171, 60 23132, 0161,,60 3) 50 3108, 60,60, 60 3122,50 0. 14 60 70,70 2. 44 (2) 60, 1964 15-36 110, 60,60, 60,, ;,, ( ), 60 109191, 60, 95 % 50,65 97125 %, 60-79 9715 % (1982 60-79 ) 60,60,40 21146, 19128,,,,60,60 24, 25-29,60 50 0161, 23132, 60 50 0114,,60 60 60,, ; 8
109191 212,, 21211 50 ( 4),1947 ; 1960 20-24 (1936-1940 ),30-59 ;1970 30-34 (1936-1940 ),35-64 1969 1969, 1968 10612 1969 11114 1950 15-44 1960 25-54 (1970 35-64 ) 40 50 50 60 70, 1980 1970 1950 15-19 118,20-24 150,25-29 151,30-34 141,35-39 131,40-45 110, 4 1947-1980 21212 50 1947 1960 1970 1980 0-4 104 105 106 107 1969 5-9 104 105 106 106, 10-14 103 106 105 106 1980 15-19 103 106 105 105 20-24 97 70 105 105 25-29 101 105 100 105 30-34 106 113 105 106 35-39 102 121 118 105 40-44 105 125 150 104 45-49 105 129 151 119 50-54 103 118 141 149 55-59 96 110 131 144 60-64 86 99 110 132 65-69 74 87 98 118 70 + 56 61 71 84 : 1 1 [M]1 :,19901 50,,,,1955 138162, 38. 62 %,1955, 9
2000 3 ( 5),30-34 (1921-1925 ),143193 ;25-29 (1926-1930 ),14118 ;20-24 (1931-1935 ),112184 1921-1930, 1960 12517,1965 111129 5 1955 (1) 20-24 1931-1935 112184 123141 25-29 1926-1930 141180 143124 30-34 1921-1925 143193 138132 35-39 1916-1920 130108 133147 21213 50,50, 1955 20-39 1980 45-64, 1980,1980, 45-49 99 %, 50,, 1980, 1 50-69, 35-49 1955 1 1980 1955 30-34 (1921-1925 ), 143193, 1980 55-59,,17. 4 % ;1955 35-39 25-29, 1980 60-64 50-54, 1417 %1318 %, 10
5 %, 415 % 215 %, 1980 50-69 50 1995 50-64 5106 % 1980 50-69 12 %, 70 80,,1955 20-24 112. 84, 1995 60-64 5106 % ;1955 10-14 15-19 1995 50-54 55-59, 4114 % 4158 % 1955 25-39,, 1956, 1970 (,1990) [22 ], 1971 418 1972 515 1976 411 1980 316 1984 313 :, ;,, ;,70, 70, 1972 1971, 1956 (SMAM) 3169 ( 1956, ),, (2) :,,40 50 70 % (,1992) [23 ],,,, (,1984) [24 ], 1965-1967 7. 5 1965 6 1945 0188 1967 2198 1950 0136 1967 2156, ;,,, ( ) 11
2000 3, (,1984) [25 ],,, 3 311 90 1995 (20-34 ) 1961-1975,,105-108, 1995 :26-34, 1961-1969, ;20-26, 1969-1975,,1995 98167, ( ),1995,,1995, 1990,1995 1990 103157, 6 1990 1995 ( %) 1990 1995 1990 1995 1995 1990 20 10016 11315 7117 8019 912 21 9518 11011 5416 6512 1016 22 10114 10610 10917 10613 6214 3815 7313 4910 1110 1015 23 9416 11415 10816 10615 4614 2314 5616 3311 1011 916 24 10610 9919 11116 9815 3416 1412 4210 2018 714 617 25 10412 9416 10816 9416 2513 812 3015 1210 512 318 26 10714 8218 10115 9714 1815 417 2210 618 314 211 27 11917 7011 10514 9215 1315 219 1519 412 214 113 28 7517 10813 8718 11216 1111 210 1211 215 110 014 29 6016 14112 10011 9713 918 116 914 116-014 010 30 8712 12019 10112 9115 813 110 717 112-016 012 31 9512 13117 9614 8615 718 018 617 019-111 011 32 13416 10316 11716 6617 712 016 516 017-116 011 33 12410 10717 8612 8814 616 015 511 016-115 011 34 11012 10912 5517 13810 613 014 510 016-113 012 35 11615 8210 611 014 416 014-115 010 36 10618 8411 519 013 416 014-113 011 : 1 1990 [M]1 :,1993 ; 11995 1 % [M]1 :,19971 ( 6),1995 22-25 1990, 12
32-36 1990,,1990 1995 29-33 6,1990 1995 29-36,1990 1995 29-36, 1990 1995 1990 1995 ;,1990 1995 1995 22-28 1990, 90,, 1995 1990 312 31211, ( ) ( B ),, 1985,1985-1995 2015 20-30,, 1985-1995 ; 1996-2000 1995 11714,2020 20-34 (1986-2000 ),,2015 111137, 2015 1995 ( 98167), 1965 ( 109191), 1965 1146,1965, 1965 109191,2015 20-36, 2015,1965 2015 2020, 115198,2015 4,,2015 2020 11137 %15198 %, 60, 1955, 80 [26 (1993) ],80, 13
2000 3, 19801995 106,2015 106158, 80,2015 106158, 1965, 1990 1995 31212 (1) 1) 2015, 106158 111137,2015 1965 (1965 109191, ) 1955 (138162), 100 15 ( 7),,2015,,, 2015,1996-2000 1995,11714,2020 115198 ;, 2),, ;, ( 7), 3),,,,,, (2), ;,, 60, 14
,,2015,2015,,,, 1965 109191 1955 138162 7 1995 50 50 3108 60, 3122 5 % 1970 1218 % 1972 1970 1955 30-34 515, 1980 55 1984 313-59 50 1714 % 1950 85171 1960-1980 45-49 5 %, 92142 1970, : 1950 1970 United Nations :Demographic Yearbook[ M]11961-1971 1 4,,80,,, : (1), ; ( ),,, (2),,, 16
2000 3,,,,,, (3),,, (4) 19851995 2015, 2015 111137, 1965 109191 (1965, 1965 ), 1955 138162 80, 80 106,2015 106158, 1965, 1990 1995, 2015 106158 111137, (5) 19952000 1995 11714,2020 115198,2015 4,,, 2020, : Marriage Squeeze,, : [1 ] Mary Ann Lamanna and Agnes Riedmann. Marriages and Families : Making Choices and Facing Change [ M]. Fourth Edition. Belmont,California :Wadsworth Publishing Company,1991. 214-219,586-587. [2 ],. [J ].,1995, (3). [3 ],. [J ].,1998, (2) 1 [ 4 ]Akers,D. S,. On Measuring the Marriage Squeeze[J ]. Demography,1967,4(2) :907-9241 [ 5 ]Schoen,R. Measuring the Tightness of a Marriage Squeeze[J ]. Demography,1983,20(1) :61-78. [6 ] 1 [J ]1,1989, (4) 1 [7 ], 1 [A]1 1 [M]1 :,19881 17
[8 ] [ ] 1 [ Z]1 :,19831 [9 ] [ ]. [M]1 :,19911 [10 ] [ ], 1 [M]1 :,19951 [11 ], 1 [M]1 :,19951 [12 ], 1 [J ]1 1993, (1) 1 [13 ] 1 [M]1 :,19891 [14 ] [9 ]1 [15 ] [10 ]1 [16 ] [8 ]1 [17 ], 1 [J ]1,1984, (3) 1 [18 ] 1 [A]1 1 [M]1 :,19881 [19 ] 1 (1940-1981) [J ]1,1986, (5) 1 [ 20 ] United Nations. Patterns of First Marriage :Timing and Prevalence[ Z]. New York :United Nations,1990. [21 ][18 ]1 [22 ], 1 [M]1 :,19901 [23 ] 1 [M]1 :,19921 [24 ], 1 [M]1 :,19841 [25 ] [24 ]1 [26 ], 1 [J ]1,1993, (1) [ :, ] 2000 3 27-28,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, 18,, ( )