Microsoft PowerPoint China-Song.ppt

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Microsoft PowerPoint China-Song.ppt"

港补冯张
6 years ago
Views:

1 The Social and Economic Benefits of Meteorological Services in China Song Lianchun China Meteorological Administration

2 Outline Characteristic of meteorological disasters in China Meteorological services of CMA Benefits of meteorological service in China Conclusion

3 9.6 million KM2, 1.3 billion population CHINA

4 A country prone to frequent disasters Drought High Temp. Typhoon Strong wind Thunder storm El Nino Flood Dust Storm

5 Economic loss(0.1 B RMB) 直接经济损失 ( 亿元 ) Economic loss 直接经济损失年份 Year average 年平均值 186 billion RMB 平均年气象灾害损失占 GDP 的 2.8% 气象灾害损失占 GDP 百分比 Percentage 年平均 average Percentage 百分比 (%) % of GDP Year 年份

6 Impact population(10,000) 受灾人口 ( 万人 ) m people affected 平均年气象灾害受灾人口 3.87 亿人年份 4000 killed 气象灾害总受灾人口年平均死亡人数 ( 人 ) Death 年份 Year

7 Each year meteorological disasters destroy almost 50 million hectare crop 6000 平均年农作物受灾面积万公顷农作物总受灾面积年平均 10,000 hectare 受灾面积 ( 万公顷 ) 年份 Year

8 Typhoon 7 Typhoon landed 438 death, 1266 died and 384 missing in billion RMB loss Economic Loss(0.1b, RMB) 直接经济损失 ( 亿元 ) Economic Loss 直接经济损失年份 Year Death 死亡人数死亡人数 ( 人 ) Death

9 Super-strong Typhoon Saomai The strongest landed Typhoon since 1951 Central wind speed=60m/s 430 people died, 157 people missing 20 billion RMB economic loss

10 Drought 26 million hectare crop land affected by drought each year Severe drought in the Southwest of China in 2006 Affected 0.72 million hectare crop, 19 billion RMB economic loss 干旱受灾面积年平均值 10,000 hectare 干旱受灾面积 ( 万公顷 ) 年份 Year

11 Flood Flooding crop area:1.4 million hectare. The economic loss caused by flood in 1998: 300 billion RMB 10,000 hectare 洪涝受灾面积 ( 万公顷 ) Flooding area 洪涝受灾面积 Avearge 年平均值年份 Year

12 Heat wave The max consecutive hot days in the summer of days 26 days

13 Sandstorm 19 sandstorms in 2006 The most in new century 330m Kg dustfall on April in Beijing

14 Meteorological services of CMA Meteorological Service Categories Public Meteorological Services Cost recovery Services Services for Decision-making Services for General Public Information Service Technical Service Meteorological service focus on 1) the improvement of capacity in predicting disastrous weather and climate events. 2) reducing the damage caused by meteorological disasters

15 Public Services New paper, Radio, TV, Web, Telephone, Cell phone message etc.

16 Weather Channel of CMA 12 TV stations with 69 weather programs 24 hours everyday in weather channel Live telecast meteorological events

17 Dr. Qin Dahe broadcasted the typhoon warning on CCTV on the evening of 12 August,2004.

18 CMA s top 10 meteorological stories in 今年是我国 1951 年以来最暖的一年 9. 北方出现近 14 年来最严重的酸雨 6. 强沙尘暴频袭我国北方, 北京一夜降尘 33 万吨 5. 春季森林火险等级高, 雷击引发大兴安岭特大森林火灾 7. 暴雪封阻旅客春节返乡 4. 重庆四川遭遇历史罕见高温伏旱 8. 夏季暴雨洪涝导致福建高考延期月太阳连续强烈爆发 R 强热带风暴碧利斯横扫我国南方七省 ( 区 ) 2. 百年一遇超强台风桑美登陆我国

19 One time/a day: 56.4% Two times/a day: 22.1% Three times/a day: 8% One time/three days: 8% One time/ a week: 4.3% 86.4%people listen to at least one weather forecast daily, 22% people listen to weather information twice a day.

20 Accuracy assessment Very accurate: 17.3% Accurate: 66.7% Little accurate: 13.6% Less accurate: 2.5% In terms of survey from 200,000 people, 84% people think our weather forecast is accurate

21 Very satisfied: 22.8% Satisfied: 51.4% Satisfaction 74% people are satisfied with meteorological service

Meteorological service for governmental decision-making 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Comments of

22 Meteorological service for governmental decision-making Comments of Chinese senior leaders on CMA s reports 中央领导在决策气象服务材料上批示次数年 2004 年 2005 年 2006 年

23 Emergence Service 开县高桥镇 48 小时内有毒气体影响到地面的区域分布 (23 日 22 时 -25 日 20 时 )

24 Weather modification 40 b Cubic meter

25 Meteorological service for economic sectors Fisheries/ Marine Urban Planning/construction Agriculture Health Meteorological Information Ecosystem Transportation Forestry Energy Water resource management

26 Multi-track Operation and Service Public service platform Climate Weather Climate Climate change change Space Space weather weather Information sharing platform 信息共享平台 Agricultural and ecological 科技人才平台 Integrated Observation Atmosphere composition lightening lightening (Capacity ( 运行保障 building) ) Science & Technology Human resource input 一体化观测平台 Weather Weather modification modification ( 天空地 )

27 Benefits of public meteorological Willing-to-pay method Questions: U= k service ( R *( M / N )* PB ) j j j i ij j= 1 i= 1 How much would you be willing to pay for the service? How much money does the weather forecast save you or your family? The benefits of public meteorological services: 21.3b RMB n

28 Benefits of meteorological service for economic sectors The expert evaluation method: Survey in 1996: 1279 experts from all economic sectors Benefits of meteorological service for economic sectors:25~30b RMB The CMA s meteorological service cost-benefit ratio :1:35 to 1:40

29 High impact sectors No.1 A Agriculture,Forestry,Fishery No.2 F Transportation No.3 N Water resource management No.4 D Energy No.5 E Construction 350 No.6 O Social services Score 得分 ABCDEFGHIJKMNOPQRS 行业 Sector No.7 No.8 No.9 No.10 No.11 No.12 No.13 No.14 J Q M R B P H S Finance, Insurance Human health Tourism Sports, Leisure Mining Education Sales. Retails Public management No.15 I Living and eating NO.16 C Manufacturing

30 Conclusion Effective and useful information Accurate, timely and extensive meteorological services to meet evolving needs more research to assess the influence of meteorological events, more budget

4期

中国农学通报 05,3(4):58-63 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 近 50 年青海海南地区灾害性天气事件变化特征李金红, 丁生祥, 郭连云 ( 青海省海南州气象局, 青海共和 83099; 青海省同德县气象局, 青海同德 830) 摘要 : 为