股票研究投资策略 A 股 2015 年业绩前瞻创业板年报增速略好于预期一各大板块的业绩增速情况中小创业板小幅, 主板继续减速截止 1 月 30 日,A 股已有 35% 的上市公司发布了 2015 年报业绩预告, 其中创业板除通源石油外已全部发布业绩预告 ; 中小板虽已全部发布业绩预告, 但

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1 Equity Research Investment Strategy Feb 1, A-Share Earnings Preview ChiNext earnings growth slightly better than expected 35% of A-share listed companies had issued a 2015 profit alert as of Jan 30: all companies on the ChiNext board except one have done so; so had all SME board companies, but these forecasts are less meaningful as they were made early on when 9M15 earnings were released; only 30% of main board companies had issued a profit alert for the year, hardly representative for the trading board s overall earnings performance. Annual ChiNext earnings growth up from 9M15 and 1H15 The median of full-year earnings growth expected by ChiNext companies is 25.6%, compared with 24.5% in 9M15 and 22.3% in 1H15. Quarterly earnings rose by as much as 50.4% QoQ in 4Q15, much stronger than the seasonal level and roughly comparable to the 4Q14 level, likely meaning that the consolidation of newly acquired assets remained strong in 4Q ChiNext companies expect their 2015 earnings growth to accelerate by more than 50% from 9M15, with most of them coming from the information technology, machinery and power equipment sectors. A-share ex-financial earnings to have deteriorated further While the low proportion of main board companies having issued a profit alert makes it harder to gauge the trading board s overall earnings performance, there is a strong correlation between A- share ex-financial earnings growth and the industrial profit growth figure compiled by the NBS. Given that industrial profit growth fell from -1.7% in 9M15 to -2.3% YoY in 2015, we expect A-share ex-financial earnings growth to have deteriorated from -14% in 9M15 to -15% in This would mean a decline in cumulative A-share ex-financial earnings for the fifth consecutive quarter. Performance by sector Among major sector groups, agriculture and TMT saw significant accelerations in 2015 earnings growth compared with 9M15, while financial services and midstream manufacturing suffered substantial decelerations. Sectors with over 80% of companies having issued an annual profit alert indicating growth improvements from both 1H15 and 9M15 include restaurants, car services, information technology equipment, plastic, fishery, and auto making. In contrast, those for which decelerations from both 1H15 and 9M15 are expected include shipping, telecom, coal mining, instruments & apparatus, landscaping, other transportation equipment, and decoration. Ou Yafei, Research Analyst, SFC CE No. BFN410, oyf@gf.com.cn GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited, 29-30/F, Li Po Chun Chambers, 189 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong This page is a summary of a report originally written in Chinese. The Chinese version shall prevail in the event of any discrepancy between the two versions.

2 股票研究投资策略 A 股 2015 年业绩前瞻创业板年报增速略好于预期一各大板块的业绩增速情况中小创业板小幅, 主板继续减速截止 1 月 30 日,A 股已有 35% 的上市公司发布了 2015 年报业绩预告, 其中创业板除通源石油外已全部发布业绩预告 ; 中小板虽已全部发布业绩预告, 但由于中小板年报业绩预告大部分是和去年三季报同期发布的, 因此可信度较低 ; 此外, 主板的业绩预告发布率只有 30%, 还不具有代表性二创业板年报业绩增速相比三季报小幅, 同比增速较我们此前预期高了近 6 个百分点创业板年报业绩预告增速的中值为 25.6%, 相对于三季报的 24.5% 以及中报的 22.3% 均小幅创业板在 2015 年四季度的单季环比增速高达 50.4%, 远好于季节性, 与 2014 年四季度的水平相当这可能意味着去年四季度外延式收购资产并表的速度仍然比较快在创业板中, 共有 58 家公司的年报业绩相对于三季报业绩 50% 以上, 这些公司主要集中于计算机机械设备电器设备这三个行业之中三预计 A 股剔除金融业绩增速相比三季报小幅下滑, 连续 5 个季度负增长主板业绩预告发布率较低 (30%), 无法直接判断其年报业绩情况但是我们发现 A 股剔除金融的业绩增速和统计局月度公布的工业企业利润增速具有高度的一致性 2015 年全年的工业企业利润增速为 -2.3%, 相对于 2015 前三季度的 -1.7% 进一步下滑因此, 预计 A 股剔除金融的 2015 年报业绩增速为 -15%, 相比 2015 三季报的 -14% 小幅下滑至此,A 股剔除金融的利润已经连续五个季度负增长四分行业年报业绩情况 : 农业 TMT 消费品, 金融和周期品减速分大类类行业来看 : 农业 TMT 行业年报业绩相对于三季报显著, 而金融服务中游制造等行业的年报业绩大幅减速在申万二级行业中, 我们统计了年报相对中报以及三季报业绩均, 且业绩发布率在 80% 以上的行业这些行业包括餐饮汽车服务计算机设备塑料渔业汽车整车我们同时还统计了年报相对中报以及三季报业绩均减速, 同时, 业绩发布率在 80% 以上的行业这些行业包括航运通信运营煤炭开采仪器仪表园林工程其他交运设备装修装饰欧亚菲, 分析员, 证监会中央编号 BFN410, oyf@gf.com.cn 香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦楼广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司 2

3 一各大板块的业绩增速情况中小创业板小幅, 主板继续减速截止今日,A 股已有 35% 的上市公司发布了 2015 年报业绩预告, 其中创业板除通源石油外已全部发布业绩预告 ; 中小板虽已全部发布业绩预告, 但由于中小板年报业绩预告大部分是和去年三季报同期发布的, 因此可信度较低 ; 此外, 主板的业绩预告发布率只有 30%, 还不具有代表性图 1: 各大类板块年报业绩发布率从大类板块的业绩增速来看, 除了创业板和中小板的年报利润增速相比三季报小幅以外, 其他大类板块的年报业绩增速相比三季报均有不同程度的减速图 2: 大类板块在过去三个季度的利润增速比较 3

4 二创业板年报业绩增速相比三季报小幅, 同比增速较我们此前预期高了近 6 个百分点创业板年报业绩预告增速的中值为 25.6%, 相对于三季报的 24.5% 以及中报的 22.3% 均小幅需要注意的是, 由于 2014 年四季度的基数较高, 我们曾在去年预期创业板 2015 年年报增速会相比三季报下滑 ( 当时预期从 24.5% 下滑至 20%), 但最终的结果比我们的预期值好了近 6 个百分点从下图可以看出, 创业板在 2015 年四季度的单季环比增速高达 50.4%, 远好于季节性, 与 2014 年四季度的水平相当这可能意味着去年四季度外延式收购资产并表的速度仍然比较快图 3: 创业板历年四季度净利润环比增速数据来源 : 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 剔除东方财富和同花顺的影响后, 创业板年报业绩绝对增速水平下降, 但依旧相比三季报东方财富和同花顺的年报预告业绩占创业板整体的比重高达 5%, 且这两个公司的业绩增速均超过 1500%, 考虑到这两家公司可能会对整个板块的业绩产生较大扰动, 因此我们进一步观察剔除这两家公司之后的创业板业绩增速剔除东财和同花顺以后, 创业板年报业绩增速会从 25.6% 下滑至 19.1%, 不过相比三季报的 16.9% 以及中报的 14.7% 仍然小幅提升图 4: 创业板业绩预告在创业板中, 共有 58 家公司的年报业绩相对于三季报业绩 50% 以上, 这些公司主要集中于计算机机械设备电器设备这三个行业之中 4

5 图 5: 创业板中, 年报业绩增速相对于三季报 50% 以上的公司分布三预计 A 股剔除金融业绩增速相比三季报小幅下滑, 连续 5 个季度负增长主板业绩预告发布率较低 (30%), 无法直接判断其年报业绩情况但是我们发现 A 股剔除金融的业绩增速和统计局月度公布的工业企业利润增速具有高度的一致性 2015 年全年的工业企业利润增速为 -2.3%, 相对于 2015 前三季度的 -1.7% 进一步下滑因此, 预计 A 股剔除金融的 2015 年报业绩增速为 -15%, 相比 2015 三季报的 -14% 小幅下滑至此,A 股剔除金融的利润已经连续五个季度负增长图 6: 主板业绩增速与工业企业利润具有高度的一致性四分行业年报业绩情况 : 农业 TMT 消费品, 金融和周期品减速分大类类行业来看 : 农业 TMT 行业年报业绩相对于三季报显著, 而金融服务中游制造等行业的年报业绩大幅减速 5

6 图 7: 分类行业业绩预告分类行业中报三季报年报年报相比三年报相比中季报变化报变化农业 (34%) -41.8% 29.7% 57.8% 28.1% 99.5% TMT(69%) 16.6% 20.6% 36.1% 15.5% 19.5% 大消费 (45%) 9.8% 6.5% 10.8% 4.3% 1.0% 可选消费 (51%) 12.9% 7.4% 11.5% 4.1% -1.4% 必需消费 (36%) 12.9% 13.9% 17.8% 3.9% 5.0% 工业 (56%) -26.7% -34.8% -33.7% 1.0% -7.0% 建筑业 (44%) 10.0% 7.1% 4.3% -2.8% -5.7% 资源类 (92%) -65.8% -73.5% -76.7% -3.3% -10.9% 服务业 (26%) 49.0% 29.8% 24.5% -5.4% -24.6% 周期类 (50%) -28.0% -39.7% -46.2% -6.5% -18.1% 金融服务 (23%) 53.8% 36.5% 29.0% -7.6% -24.8% 中游制造 (35%) -6.4% -32.5% -59.7% -27.2% -53.3% 在申万二级行业中, 我们统计了年报相对中报以及三季报业绩均, 且业绩发布率在 80% 以上的行业这些行业包括餐饮汽车服务计算机设备塑料渔业汽车整车图 8: 年报业绩行业行业中报三季报年报年报相比中报年报相比三季报餐饮 (100%) % % % 307.5% 414.3% 汽车服务 (99%) -3.96% % % 131.3% 140.5% 计算机设备 (82%) 3.44% 5.73% 44.45% 41.0% 38.7% 塑料 (82%) 35.01% 50.87% 71.98% 37.0% 21.1% 渔业 (100%) % % % 213.7% 14.5% 汽车整车 (92%) 10.13% 11.41% 18.80% 8.7% 7.4% 我们同时还统计了年报相对中报以及三季报业绩均减速, 同时, 业绩发布率在 80% 以上的行业这些行业包括航运通信运营煤炭开采仪器仪表园林工程其他交运设备装修装饰图 9: 年报业绩减速行业减速行业中报三季报年报年报相比中报年报相比三季报航运 (91%) 45.33% % % % -47.3% 通信运营 (100%) % % % -47.8% -34.7% 煤炭开采 (98%) % % % -27.5% -22.2% 仪器仪表 (100%) 3.95% 7.45% % -14.1% -17.6% 园林工程 (100%) % % % -12.0% -11.1% 装修装饰 (94%) 1.87% -3.93% -8.82% -10.7% -4.9% 6

7 Investment Strategy Feb 1, 2016 Rating definitions Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time horizon: 12 months Company ratings Buy Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% Accumulate Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% Hold Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% Sector ratings Positive Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10% Neutral Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10% Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the company or relevant securities that the analyst(s) covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views on the company or relevant securities mentioned herein; and (2) no part of his or her remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, in connection with his or her specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Disclosure of Interests (1) The proprietary trading division of GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited ( GF Securities (Hong Kong) ) and/or its affiliated or associated companies do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned in this research report. (2) GF Securities (Hong Kong) and/or its affiliated or associated companies did not have any investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned in this research report in the past 12 months. (3) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the independent views of the analyst(s). Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his/her associate(s) serves as an officer of the companies mentioned in this report, or has any financial interests in or holds any shares of the securities mentioned in this report. Disclaimer This report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong). It is published solely for information purpose and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for investing in, any securities. This research report is intended solely for use by the clients of GF Securities (Hong Kong). The securities mentioned in this research report may not be allowed to be sold in certain jurisdictions. No action has been taken to permit the distribution of this research report to any persons in any jurisdictions that the circulation or distribution of such research report is unlawful. The information contained in this research report has been compiled or arrived at from publically available sources believed to be reliable in good faith, and no representation or warranty, either express or implied, is made by GF Securities (Hong Kong) as to their accuracy and completeness. GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any losses arising from the use of the materials presented in this research report, unless otherwise required by applicable laws or regulations. Please be aware of the fact that investments involve risks and that the prices of securities may fluctuate and therefore returns may vary. Past results do not guarantee future performance. Any recommendations contained in this research report do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any individuals. This report is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the respective recipients of this report. Where necessary, the recipients should obtain professional advice before making investment decisions. GF Securities (Hong Kong) may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this research report. The points of view, opinions and analytical methods adopted in this research report are solely expressed by the analyst(s) but not GF Securities (Hong Kong) or its subsidiaries. The information, opinions and forecasts presented in this research report are the current opinions of the analyst(s) as of the date appearing on this material and are subject to changes at any time without notice. The salespersons, dealers or other professionals of GF Securities (Hong Kong) may deliver opposite points of view to their clients and the proprietary trading division with respect to market commentaries and dealing strategies either in writing or verbally. The proprietary trading division of GF Securities (Hong Kong) may have investment decisions which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. GF Securities (Hong Kong) or its affiliates or respective directors, officers, analysts and employees may have rights and interests in the securities mentioned in this research report. The recipients should be aware of relevant disclosures of interests (if any) when reading this report. Copyright GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited. Without the prior written consent obtained from GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited, any part of the materials contained herein should not (i) in any forms be copied or reproduced or (ii) be re-disseminated. GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited. All rights reserved /F, Li Po Chun Chambers, 189 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel: Fax: Website: 7

Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229

Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229 高曉慶, Stanley Kao 陳漢輝, Freddy Chan 申萬宏源研究 ( 香港 ) 有限公司申萬宏源 A 股每日資訊 - Shenwan Hongyuan A-Share Daily Notes stanley.kao@swhyhk.com freddy.hf.chan@swhyhk.com 2016 年 2 月 29 日星期一 (852)