1302 ( ) 8,,,,?,,,,,,,, :?,?,,?,??, :,, 1,,, 1980, ( ), 1982, 65,,,,, , ; ;,,, Jones and Olken (2005) , Jones and Olk2 en (2005)
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1 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol18, No14 J uly, ,,,,,, , ; ;,,,, 30,,, (2005),,, (2007), (2007),, U, (2008) 3, ;, :, 135, ; E2mail sysu. edu. cn ( ) (08J C790103) (08JJD820170) (07JDTDXM79006) 2008,
2 1302 ( ) 8,,,,?,,,,,,,, :?,?,,?,??, :,, 1,,, 1980, ( ), 1982, 65,,,,, , ; ;,,, Jones and Olken (2005) , Jones and Olk2 en (2005), :, 1, Jones and Olken (2005), , 57,, (t he reversal in economic growt h)
3 4 : 1303 Jones and Olken (2005) Jones and Olken (2005), ;,, Jones and Olken (2005), ;,,,, : ; ; ; ( ), : ;,, (Qian and Weingast, 1997) (2008),,, (2004, 2007) ; ( 2005, 2007) ; ( 2005, 2007, 2008),,,,,,,, 2,,,,,,,, 2 Li and Zhou (2005),,, 10
4 1304 ( ) 8,,,,, 3, (2007) ; (2008),,,, ( Zhuravskaya, 2000 ; Bardhan, 2006),, ( Zhuravskaya, 2000 ; Blanchard and Shleifer, 2001), (2004),,,,,, (, 2005), ( ),,, (2007) (2008),,,,, (2007), 1, (2007) U,, (2007) (2008),, (2008),,, 3,,
5 4 : 1305,, 4,,,, ( ), ;,,,,,,, :,,,, 5,, 59,,,,,,,,,, 6, 65,,,, 4,, (2008), 5 6,,,
6 1306 ( ) 8,,, 7,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 8,,,,, 9,, 10,,,, :, ,59 %,41 % (,2008) 8,,, 9 Besley and Ghatak (2005),,, (mission), (productivity),, 10 (2005), ;,,
7 4 : 1307,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Kramer (1971) ; Nordhaus (1975) ;, Hibbs (1977, 1987),, ; Frey and Schneider (1978), 20 80,,, (Alesina, 1987, 1988 ; Rogoff and Sibert, 1988 ; Rogoff, 1990),,,, Tao (2003), 1987, ; (2006) , (2007),,,, 1,,,,
8 1308 ( ) 8,,,,,,,,, (2007) (2008),,,, U, (2003), ( ) ,,, 1, , 385, 13175, 28, 1985 ; 3, 1984, 80,, 1, , 2,, 18,, 7,, 9,, 3 ; 11,
9 4 : 1309, 11,, , GDP , GDP , (2006, 2007) ,, GDP,,, 3 29, ; - 3, , 17,, 015 3
10 1310 ( ) 8 ( ), git = chanit + 2log ( y it - 1 ) + 3 log ( nit + it + it ) + 4 log (invit ) + i + t + it. (1) (1), git GDP, chanit, 1, 0 ; yit - 1 nit it it invit, GDP 12 ; i t, :,, (1),,, (1) Mankiw (1992),,, it + it = 0110,,, 1, 1, ( ) 1 (1) 1 1,, 1 = , 5 %,,, 014 3, 12,,,
11 4 : 1311 chan log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv) log (inv( - 1) ) resid 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (90. 50) ( ) OL S (5. 90) ( ) ( ) (5. 10) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 10) 2SL S (5. 40) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 10) (5. 23) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 41) OL S OL S 2SL S OL S (5. 08) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 46) (1. 36) (7. 70) ( ) ( ) (0. 70) (5. 00) (7. 16) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 37) (3. 90) ( ) ( ) ( ) (4. 17) (1. 09) adj2r D2W : (1) 5 8 tenure_ sz, tenure_ sj, age_ sz, age_ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log(inv( - 1) ) ; (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 2 4,, 1,,, 01 4, 5 %log ( y) log ( n + 011) log (inv), 1 1 4,, ( ),,?,,,,,
12 1312 ( ) 8 probit, (), 1,, 0 probit, probit,, 10 %,,,,,,, probit pro (chan) = ( ) (1. 21) (5. 70) tenure _ sz tenure _ sj (2. 71) age _ sz age _ sj. z, Log _ likelihood (3. 13) , 736, 1 261, (1) 1 5, chan,, 10 % 2SL S,, nr 2 = 4187, 2 q,, 13, Hausman, probit,,, OL S 1 6, 20 %,, chan,, 10 % 13 5 %
13 4 : 1313,, 1, ,, 1986, , 1 7, 1-015, 1 % , (1) 8, chan,, 10 %,,,,,,, 2 1 (1),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
14 1314 ( ) 8,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,, (1),, 1, 0, 1 14 chan log( y( - 1) ) 2,, log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) (1) (5. 30) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 10) (2) 2 : (3) (4) (5. 3) g (1. 7) ( ) ( ) (2. 0) (5. 2) (2. 6) ( ) ( ) (2. 0) (5. 3) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 1) (5) (5. 3) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 1) (6) (5. 3) g (1. 5) ( ) ( ) (2. 0) (7) (5. 4) g ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 1) adj2r D2W F :t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %;FE2OL S 14, 1,0, 0
15 4 : , ;, 1 016,, 5 %;, 1 = 014,,, 1, 0, 1 013,, ;, 1 014,,, 1,,,,,, 1,, ,, (2007) (2008), U,, 4, 4,, 3 3 U, U,, ( ) 4 3 chan _ east chan _ noneast, chan _ timea chan _ timeb
16 1316 ( ) 8 chan_east chan_noneast chan_zhixia chan_ nonzhixia chan_timea chan_timeb log( y ( - 1) ) log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) (1) OL S (7. 27) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 27) (2) 2SL S (5. 24) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 41) 3 (3) 2SL S (4. 66) ( ) (0. 45) ( ) ( ) (2. 13) (4) OL S (7. 81) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 299) (5) 2SL S (5. 43) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 47) (6) OL S (7. 84) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 29) (7) 2SL S (4. 82) (0. 55) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 53) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 east tenure_sz, east tenure_sj, east age_sz,east age_sj, noneast tenure_sz, noneast tenure_ sj, noneast age_ sz, noneast age _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv( - 1) ) ; 3 east age_ sz, east age_ sj, noneast age_ sz, noneast age_ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n) log(inv( - 1) ) ; 5 age_sz nonzhixiashi, age_sj nonzhixi2 ashi, zhixiashi age_sz, zhixiashi age_sj, tenure_sz nonzhixiashi, tenure_sj nonzhixiashi, zhixiashi tenure_sz, zhixiashi tenure_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv ( - 1) ) ; 7 time_a tenure_sz, time_a tenure_sj, time_a age_sz, time_a age_sj, time_b tenure_sz, time_b tenure_sj, time_b age_sz, time_b age_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n),log (inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %,, 3 1, , , 1 % ,,,, 1, 3 2 3
17 4 : 1317, 2, 3, 15,, OL S,,,,,,, Jones and Olken (2005),, 3 OL S, chan _ timea , ; chan _ timeb - 014, 5 % 3 7 chan _ timea, ; chan _ timeb - 212, 5 %, OL S, 90,, ( ),,, 1,, 1, chan _ not more 1, 0 ; 1, chan _ more 1, , chan _ notmore,, chan _ more, 1, 1 % 15,,
18 1318 ( ) 8, 2SL S,,, 4 2 3,, chan _ notmore 4 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) chan_not more chan_more chan_bot h chan_double chan_single log( y ( - 1) ) log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) OLS 2SL S 2SL S OL S 2SLS (7. 87) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 22) (4. 54) (0. 73) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 81) (4. 60) (0. 63) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 83) (7. 86) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 21) (4. 30) ( ) (0. 36) (0. 54) ( ) ( ) (1. 81) OLS (3. 96) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (4. 17) 2SL S (4. 92) ( ) ( ) (0. 98) ( ) (0. 42) (1. 72) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 tenure_sz, tenure_sj, age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure_sj, age_sz age_sj,age_ sj tenure_ sz,age_ sz tenure_ sj,age_ sz tenure_ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj,log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n),log (inv( - 1) ) ; 3 tenure_sz,tenure_sj,age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure _sj,age_sz age_sj,age_sj tenure_sz,age_sz tenure_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n),log (inv( - 1) ) ; 5 tenure_ sz,tenure_ sj,age_ sz,age_ sj,tenure_ sz tenure_ sj,age_ sz age_ sj,age_ sj tenure_sz,age _ sz tenure _ sj, age _ sz tenure _ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv( - 1) ) ; 7 tenure_sz,tenure_sj,age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure_sj,age_sz age_ sj, age _ sj tenure _ sz, age _ sz tenure _ sj, age _ sz tenure _ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ),log( n),log(inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %
19 4 : 1319,, chan _ more, 10 %, 3,,,,, 16, 0 1 chan _ double chan _ bot h, chan _ single OL S, chan _ single,, chan _ bot h chan _ double 1 %, 1 5, 2, chan _ single chan _ double,, chan _ bot h 1 %, 3, ,, chan _ double,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, 61, () chan _ gounder61 1, 0 ; 61 65, chan _ go6165 1, 0 ; 65, chan _ goup65 1, OL S, 16,, 1
20 1320 ( ) 8 chan_gounder61 chan_go6165 chan_goup65 chan_comeunder61 chan_come6165 chan_comeup65 log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv( - 1) ) 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) OL S (4. 77) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 15) 2SL S (4. 44) ( ) (0. 02) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 05) OL S (5. 55) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 24) 2SL S (5. 66) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 20) OL S (4. 54) ( ) g ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 92) 2SL S (4. 11) ( ) ( ) g ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 32) OL S (5. 59) g ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 13) 2SL S (5. 56) g ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 16) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 4 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz, tenure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz age2 under60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj,tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz, age_sj age6165_sj,tenure_ sz ageup65_ sz,tenure_ sj ageup65_ sj,age_ sz ageup65_ sz,age_ sj age2 up65_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ),log( n),log(inv( - 1) ) ; 6 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz,ten2 ure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz ageunder60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj,tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz,age_sj age6165_sj,tenure_sz ageup65_sz,tenure_sj ageup65_sj, age_sz ageup65_sz,age_sj ageup65_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n),log (inv ( - 1) ) ; 8 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz,tenure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz ageunder60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj, tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz,age_sj age6165_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %, chan _ goup65 5 %, 1 2,, chan _ goup65 5 % , OL S , 2SL S,, chan _ goup65
21 4 : 1321,, 61, () chan _ comeunder61 1, 0 ; 61 65, chan _ come6165 1, 0 ; 65, chan _ comeup65 1, 0 5 OL S,, 10 %, chan _ comeunder61, chan _ come6165, chan _ comeup65 2SL S, chan _ comeup65 15 %, , 65, OL S chan _ come , 1 %, chan _ comeunder61,, 2SL S, chan _ come6165 chan _ comeunder61 17,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) H P ;, 17 8,,,,,
22 1322 ( ) 8 6, 6 1 4,,, - 014, 5 %;, 20 %,, 6? (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) OL S 2SL S OL S 2SL S (2. 488) (1. 69) (3. 30) (2. 19) OL S 2SL S OL S 2SL S (365) (60. 29) (8. 73) (8. 53) chan log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv( - 1) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 885) g ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 080) (0. 275) g (1. 468) (0. 04) (0. 833) ( ) ( ) (4. 47) ( ) ( ) (4. 46) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 age_sj, age_sz,tenure_sj, tenure_sz ; 4 age_sj,age_ sz,tenure_sj, tenure_sz,log( y ( - 1) ),log ( n ),log (in ( - 1) ) ; 6 age_sj,age_sze,,,, ; 8 age_sj,age_sz, log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n ),log (inv ( - 1) ),,,, (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %, 6 5 8,,,,,, ,,
23 4 : 1323 ( ),,, , dependi = 0 + 1f reqi + 2 log (ryi) + 3 east i + 4 middle i + i. (2) (2), freq log (ry) east middle, 1978, ; depend, , ave _ g ; , , se _ g ; bianyi _ g ; HP,, se _ vol (2), 1 :,, ;,,, ; 1, (2), 7 1, 1 = ,,, , ,, 7 2 4,, 1, 5 %1 %, ,,, 1, ,, ,,
24 1324 ( ) 8 7 : (1) (2) (3) (4) ave_g se_g bianyi_g se_vol (8. 2) 2. 6 (1. 0) ( ) 3. 1 (1. 2) freq ( ) (2. 0) (2. 9) (2. 1) log(ry) ( ) ( ) (1. 0) ( ) east (5. 8) ( ) ( ) (0. 1) middle 0. 4 (0. 8) ( ) ( ) ( ) adj2r D2W : t ; % 5 % 10 %, 18,, : ,,,, Jones and Olken ( 2005) Jones and Olken (2005), Jones and Olken (2005),,,,,, 18,,
25 4 : 1325,,,, Jones and Olken (2005) ,,, ,,, ; ;,,,, Jones and Olken (2005),,,,,, ,,, [ 1 ] Alesina, A., Macroeconomic Policy in a Two2Party System as a Repeated Game, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 1987, 102 (3), [ 2 ] Alesina, A., Macroeconomics and Politics, in Fischer, S. (ed. ) N B ER M acroeconomics A nnual Cambridge, MA : The MIT Press, 1988, [ 3 ] Bardhan, P., Awakening Giant s, Feet of Clay : a Comparative Assessment of t he Rise of China and India, Paper presented at International Conference on t he Dragon and t he Elephant : China and Indiaπs Economic Reforms, 2006 J uly 1 2, Shanghai, China. [ 4 ] Besley, T., and M. Ghatak, Competition and Incentives wit h Motivated Agent s, A merican Eco2 nomic Review, 2005, 95 (3),
26 1326 ( ) 8 [ 5 ] Blanchard, O., and A. Shleifer, Federalism wit h and wit hout Political Centralization : China vs. Russia in Transitional Economics : How Much Progress? I M F S taf f Papers, 2001, 48 (4), [ 6 ] Frey, B., and F. Schneider, An Empirical Study of Politico2Economic Interaction in t he United States, Review of Economics and S tatistics, 1978, 60 (2), [ 7 ] Hibbs, D., Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy, A merican Political Science Review, 1977, 71 (4), [ 8 ] Hibbs, D., The A merican Political Economy : M acroeconomics and Electoral Politics. Cam2 bridge : Harvard University Press, [ 9 ] Jones, B. and B. Olken, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growt h since World War II, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 2005, 120 (3), [ 10 ] Kramer, G., Short2term Fluct uations in U. S. Voting Behavior, , A merican Politi2 cal S cience Review, 1971, 65 (1), [ 11 ] Li, H., and L. Zhou, Political Turnover and Economic Performance : The Incentive Role of Per2 sonel Control in China, J ournal of Public Economics, 2005, 89 (9 10), [ 12 ],:,,2007 5, [ 13 ] Mankiw, N., D. Romer, and D. Weil, A Contribution to t he Empirics of Economic Growt h, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 1992, 107 (2), [ 14 ] Nordhaus, W., The Political Business Cycle, Review of Economic S tudies, 1975, 42 (2), [ 15 ],,,2008 3, [ 16 ] Qian, Y., and B. Weingast, Federalism as a Commit ment to Preserving Market Incentives, J ournal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11 (4), [ 17 ] Rogoff, K., Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles, A merican Economic Review, 1990, 80 ( 1), [ 18 ] Rogoff, K., and A. Sibert, Equilibrium Political Business Cycles, Review of Economic S tudies, 1988, 55 (1), [ 19 ] Tao, Y., Rationalization of Political Business Cycle in China, Presented in the International Con2 ference on The Rise of China Revisited : Perception and Reality, Institute of International Rela2 tions, National Chengchi University, December 11 12, [ 20 ],,,2008 3, [ 21 ],, ( ), , [ 22 ],,,2005 8, 3 15
27 4 : 1327 [ 23 ],, (), , [ 24 ],,2008, [ 25 ],,,2007 9, [ 26 ],,,2008 3, [ 27 ], :,,2005 4, [ 28 ],,, , [ 29 ],?, (), , [ 30 ],,,2004 6, [ 31 ], :,, , [ 32 ],,,2007 7, [ 33 ] Zhuravskaya, E., Incentives to Provide Local Public Goods : Fiscal Federalism, Russian Style, J ournal of Public Economics, 2000, 76 (3), Provincial Governorsπ Turnovers and Economic Growth : Evidence from China XIANBIN WAN G XIAN XIAN G XU XUN L I ( S un Yat2sen U ni versit y ) Abstract Chinaπs special personnel system, combined with its fiscal system, provides provincial governors powerf ul incentives to promote local economic growth. Using panel data with governor2province matches in the period , we find that the turnover of local
28 1328 ( ) 8 governors result s in fluctuations in the local economy, and remarkably slows economic growth in the year of a turnover. The degree of slowdown depends on several factors, such as the f requency of turnovers and the ages of related governors. mostly for short2term and do not affect long2run growth trends. JEL Classif ication O17, R58, H11 However, the negative effect s are
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2001.3~2003.4 1 2 3 ABSTRACT Key words: WTO Accession, Sino-US Trade Relations, Foreign Trade Strategies 4 5 6 ...9... 16... 16... 21... 25... 29... 32... 37... 37... 42... 45... 49... 53... 53... 61...
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引言
1 2 Szelenyi Kostello (1996) Gordon (2000) (Alcock, 1997, pp92-96; Burden, 2000; Duffy, 1998; Gordon et al, 2000; Jordan, 1996; Saraceno, 1997; SEU, 2001) (Bauman, 1998 Silverman & Yanowitch, 1997) 1979
2009 10 Bairoch,1930 1999) (Angus Maddison,1926 ) (Bairoch, 1976, 1981), 1960,1800 324, 220, 228 ;1840 206, 447, 310, 178 (1993) (1988) Peter Brecke (
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