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1 13H. Hau, W. Killeen and M. Moore How has the Euro Changed the Foreign Exchange Market? No. 79/2002

2 13How has the Euro Changed the Foreign Exchange Market? H. Hau W. Killeen M. Moore DNB Staff Reports 2002, No. 79 De Nederlandsche Bank

3 De Nederlandsche Bank NV Corresponding authors: Harald Hau and Michael Moore Aim and scope of DNB Staff Reports are to disseminate research done by staff members of the Bank to encourage scholarly discussion. Views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Nederlandsche Bank. Editorial Committee Lex Hoogduin (chairman), Bert Groothoff (secretary), Maria Demertzis, Klaas Knot, Peter Koeze, Marga Peeters, Bram Scholten, Job Swank. Subscription orders for DNB Staff Reports and requests for specimen copies should be sent to: De Nederlandsche Bank NV Communication and Information Department Westeinde 1 P.O. Box AB Amsterdam The Netherlands Internet:

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40 13Earlier publications in this series as from January 2000 No. 43/2000 H.M.M. Peeters Achieving Price Stability in the Euro Zone: Monetary or Inflation Targeting? No. 44/2000 W. Bolt and P.J.A. van Els Output Gap and Inflation in the EU No. 45/2000 P.J.G. Vlaar Currency Crisis Models for Emerging Markets No. 46/2000 W.J. Jansen The Effects of Capital Inflows in Thailand, Overview of papers presented at the conference on Regulation and Stability in the Banking Sector, held at De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, 3-5 November 1999 (Nos ) No. 47/2000 X. Freixas, B. Parigi and J.C. Rochet Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank No. 48/2000 G.G. Kaufman Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk: A Taxonomy and Review No. 49/2000 X. Freixas Optimal Bail Out Policy, Conditionality and Constructive Ambiguity No. 50/2000 A.W.A. Boot, S. Dezelan and T.T. Milbourn Regulation and the Evolution of the Financial Services Industry No. 51/2000 D.T. Llewellyn Some Lessons for Bank Regulation from Recent Crises No. 52/2000 A.M.C. van der Zwet and J. Swank Financial Fragility and Macroeconomic Performance A Comparison of Emerging and Highly Developed Countries No. 53/2000 S. Sgherri Monetary Transmission Channels, Monetary Regimes and Consumption Behaviour No. 54/2000 C.K. Folkertsma Liquidity Effects and Welfare Costs of Inflation in an Endogenous Growth Model No. 55/2000 J.M. Berk Consumers Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe No. 56/2000 No. 57/2001 No. 58/2001 No. 59/2001 M.M.G. Fase and W.F.V. Vanthoor K. Hubrich and P.J.G. Vlaar L.W. Punt and M.C.J. van Rooij M. Demertzis and A.J. Huges Hallett The Federal Reserve System Discussed: A comparative analysis Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the euro area The Profit-Structure Relationship and Mergers in the European Banking Industry: an empirical assessment Wage Inflation and the Distribution of Output Gaps in Europe: Insiders vs. Outsiders

41 13Overview of papers presented at the Conference on Measuring Inflation for Monetary policy Purposes, held at De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, November 2000 (Nos ) No. 60/2001 L.J. 09lvarez and M a de los Llanos Matea Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain No. 61/2001 L. Aucremanne The Use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation No. 62/2001 No. 63/2001 M.F. Bryan, S.G. Cecchetti and R. OSullivan C.K. Folkertsma and K. Hubrich Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation Performance of Core Inflation Measures No. 64/2001 H. Genberg Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability No. 65/2001 Ch. Goodhart What Weight Should be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation? No.66/2001 No. 67/2001 C.R. Marques, P.D. Neves, and L.M. Sarmento M. Nessn and U. S02derstr02m Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators Core Inflation and Monetary Policy No. 68/2001 J.A. Bikker and K. Haaf Competition, Concentration and their Relationship: an Empirical Analysis of the Banking Industry No. 69/2001 P.A.D. Cavelaars Monetary Policy and Competition Policy in a Two- Country, Two-Sector Model No. 70/2001 W. Bolt and A.F. Tieman Banking Competition, Risk and Regulation No. 71/2001 C.K. Folkertsma The Euro and Psychological Prices: Simulations of the Worst-Case Scenario No. 72/2001 M. Demertzis Central Bank Independence: Low inflation at no cost? A numerical simulations exercise No. 73/2002 L. de Haan The Credit Channel in the Netherlands: Evidence from bank balance sheets No. 74/2002 R.T.F. de Haas Finance, law and growth during transition: a survey Overview of papers presented at the 4th Annual Conference Understanding Exchange Rates held at De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, November 2001 (Nos ) No. 75/2002 P. Bacchetta and E. van Wincoop A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade

42 13No. 76/2002 Y. Chen and K. Rogoff Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles No. 77/2002 M.B. Devereux and Ch. Engel Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect No. 78/2002 P. de Grauwe and I. Vansteenkiste No. 79/2002 H. Hau, W. Killeen and M. Moore Exchange Rates and Fundamentals a Non-Linear Relationship? How has the Euro Changed the Foreign Exchange Market? No. 80/2002 Ph.R. Lane and G.M.Milesi-Ferretti External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate No. 81/2002 R. MacDonald and L. Ricci PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector No. 82/2002 P.J.G. Vlaar On the Strength of the US Dollar: Can it be Explained by Output Growth?

ULC ULC ULC ULC 1. 88

ULC ULC ULC ULC 1. 88 F815 Debate on the Deep Roots of European Debt Crisis Based on the Perspective of Labor Cost per Unit Output CHEN Jing-wei 1, JIANG Neng-peng 2 (1. Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,