未雨绸缪的思考我国温室气体减排压力

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椅材可康
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2 2015 年 5 月 20 日北京张博庭中国水力发电工程学

3 Contents 目录 Itroduction 概述 Development &Planning of China s water resources 中国水电资源开发及规划 The development of China's hydropower characteristics 中国水电的发展特点 Relationship between the water resources development and hydropower development 水资源开发与水电开发的关系 Summary 结语

4 Introduction 引言随着人口的增加和社会的现代化, 水和能源是人类可持续发展的关键问题以能源为例,2014 年 11 月联合国发布的报告称, 在遏制气候变化问题上, 要争取平均温度升幅不超过 2 摄氏度, 至 2050 年全球温室气体排放必须较当前减少 40% 至 70%, 到 2100 年接近零 With the increase of population and social modernization, water and energy is the key to sustainable development of human. Energy, for example, the UN report released in November 2014, In order to make the global temperature rising of less than 2 C degrees, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 40% to 70% from current to 2050, close to zero by 2100.

5 General Review 概述否则, 到 21 世纪末, 气候变暖将很可能在全球范围内带来严重的广泛的不可逆转的影响 Otherwise, by the end of the 21st century, global warming will probably bring serious influence. 为此, 中国政府在应对气候变化的政策与行动 (2011) 中, 提出要加快水能风能太阳能等可再生能源开发为了能保障风电太阳能发电的使用, 中国一直把优先发展 ( 包括抽水蓄能在内的 ) 水电作为国家能源发展的重要方针 Therefore, China s Policies and Actions for addressing Climate Change in 2011 is issued to accelerate the hydropower, wind, solar and other renewable energy development. In order to guarantee the use of wind power, solar power, China attaches great importance to hydropower as an important national energy development policy.

6 一 Development &Planning of China s hydropower 中国水电资源开发及规划 China's hydropower generation from water resources reserve in theory is 6083 TWh. Power generation from technology viability is about 2720 TWh.

7 Hydropower Resources Distribution in China 中国水能资源富集的几大基地我国主要水电基地规划电站总座数 364 座, 总装机规模万 kw, 年发 0 电量亿 kwh

8 目前水电现状与目标 The present status of the hydropower and the target 截止 2014 年底, 中国水电装机亿千瓦, 年发电量亿千瓦时按照技术可开发的发电量计算, 开发程度为 39% 根据规划, 到 2020 年, 中国的水电装机将达到 4.2 亿千瓦 ( 其中抽水包括蓄能 0.7 亿千瓦 ) By the end of 2014, China s installed capacity of hydropower is Gw, annual generation reaching to 1066TWh. The technical development degree is about 39%. According to the national plan, by 2020, China s hydropower capacity will reach 420 Gw (including 70Gw pumping storage).

9 Hydropower development of China in 2014 and 2020

10 二 The development of China's hydropower characteristics 中国水电的发展特点从 2010 年开始到 2020 年的这十年, 是中国水电发展最快的时期, 预计水电装机容量将增加 2 亿 Kw, 平均每年增加的装机容量达到 2000 万 Kw 以上 From 2010 to 2020, it is the fastest growing period of hydropower. China hydropower installed capacity is expected to increase 200 GW, in this decade. 从现在, 中国的常规水电将采取三步走的发展战略第一步, 到 2020 年, 实现规划的西部地区水电基地水电开发初具规模, 各河流龙头水库全面开工, 部分投产, 实现常规水电 ( 包括小水电 ) 装机容量达到 350 GW 的目标 From present, China's hydropower development will take "threestep. As a first step, by 2020, the planning of hydropower in the western region of China begins to take shape, the hydropower stations with major reservoirs will start construction, which some of the stations put into operation. The goals of 350 GW will be achieved.

11 二 The development of China s hydropower characteristics 中国水电的发展特点第二步, 到 2030 年, 在 2020 年基础上新增水电装机容量 70 GW 左右, 西南地区规划水电基地全面形成, 澜沧江金沙江等主要河流干流水电开发基本完毕 The second step, by 2030,the hydropower installed capacity will increase by 70 GW compared with the year of 2020, planning of hydropower bases in southwest fully formed, the major rivers in Lancang river and Jinsha river s hydropower development are basically completed. 第三步, 到 2050 年, 实现在 2030 年基础上新增水电装机 70 GW, 雅砻江大渡河和怒江等大江大河的水电资源基本开发完毕 The third step, by 2050, the hydropower installed capacity increase by 70 GW compared with the year of 2030, Yalong river, Dadu river and the Nujiang river hydropower stations are basically completed.

12 预计到 2050 年, 中国水电总装机容量将达到 6.6 亿千瓦 ( 包括抽水蓄能电站水电年发电量将达到 2.19 万亿 kwh 届时, 中国水能资源的技术可开发率将达到 80% 达到目前发达国家的平均水平 By2050, the total installed capacity of hydropower in China will reach 660 GW (including pumped storage ) Hydroelectric generation will reach 2190 TWh. At that time, China's hydropower development rate will be about 80% reaching the average level of developed countries.

13 Goal of Hydropower Development by 2050 表 3 中国水电 2050 年的发展目标

14 Installed Capacity of Hydropower from 2014 to 2050 图 1 中国水电 2050 年的装机容量

15 Annual Power Generation from 2014 to 2050 图 2 中国水电 2050 年的年发电量

16 三 relevance of water resource and hydropower development 水资源开发与水电开发的关系调控水资源的水库建设与水电开发密不可分 2014 年联合国确定的世界水日的主题也是水与能源根据中国的经验, 强调这一关系十分重要 The reservoirs for regulation of water resources and the hydropower are inseparable. In 2014, the theme of world water day determined by UN is "water and energy". According to China's experience, relationship between water and energy is very important.

17 例如, 中国的三峡不仅是全球最大的水电站, 同时还是中国最重要的水资源调控水库一般来说, 一个国家的水电开发与水资源的开发 ( 水库储水能力与水资源量之比 ) 往往是同步的中国目前的水电开发程度是 39%, 水资源开发程度大约是 30% For example, China s Three-gorges hydropower station, not only is the largest hydropower station but also is the most important reservoir for water resources regulation in China. In general, the hydropower development ratio of a country and the ratio of water resources development tend to be directly proportional. China s hydropower development degree is 39% now, water resources development level is about 30%. (the ratio of reservoir storage capacity and the river s water resources quantity)

18 三 relevance of water resource of hydropower development 水资源开发与水电开发的关系美国的水电开发率为 70% 多, 水资源开发率已接近 50% 所以, 相对于中国, 美国的水库往往能储存更多的洪水, 抵御更大的干旱当中国 2050 年水电开发程度接近 80% 时, 中国的水库蓄水能力也将与美国相当洪涝和干旱经常交替出现的水资源矛盾, 也将得到解决 The United State hydropower development rate is over 70%, water resource development rate is close to 50%. So, relative to China, the United States s reservoirs can often store more floods, and resist more serious drought. When China s hydropower development degree is close to 80% in 2050, China s reservoir storage capacity will be fairly the same level with the United States. The situation of floods and droughts often occurring alternatively will also be changed.

19 总之, 水电开发的重要性, 不仅在与提供可再生的清洁能源, 更在于在水电开发的同时为社会的生存和发展提供必要的水资源保障 In short, the importance of hydropower development, is not only to provide renewable energy, more importantly, to provide the necessary water resources for the survival and development of the society.

20 Summary 结语通过水库的调蓄, 开发利用包括水能在内的可再生能源, 也是我们保护环境应对气候变化的最重要措施 Making best use of reservoir and renewable energy is an important approach to address environmental problems and climate change. 总之, 未来发展中国家的水电开发和其社会的现代化进步, 一定是密不可分的 In the future, the hydropower development and social progress in developing countries are closely related.

21 充分利用好现有的水资源和水能资源是中国和所有发展中国家的必然选择 Fully utilization of present hydropower resources is the inevitable choice for China and all developing countries. 为此, 我们相信 IHA 提出的 2050 年全球水电装机达到 2050GKw 的设想一定能实现 Therefore, we believe that the vision of global hydropower reaching 2050GW in 2050, will be achieved.

Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化, 鼓励替代

Chinese oil import policies and reforms SINOPEC EDRI 2014.8 Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化,