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1 Sector Research Healthcare policy update Quality drug pricing to brighten up On 28 Feb, the Central government of China issued a guideline paper on classification of drug procurement by public hospitals. In particular, certain patented or exclusive drugs would be considered for a new pricing negotiation mechanism for purchase by hospitals. Generic drugs already attained global production standard will receive priority procurement from hospitals. We see local drug-makers with good self-discovered drug sales would benefit from this development. Patented or exclusive drugs to enter price negotiation method. On 28 Feb, the Central government of China issued a guideline paper on classification of drug procurement by public hospitals. It had stated that certain patented or exclusive drugs would be eligible to enter into a pricing negotiation mechanism, whereby hospitals will procure the medicines based on the pricing from the negotiation result. This aims to provide a wider selection of quality medicines for patients and will ease the recent negative sentiment among the drug sector on lower tender pricing result in some provinces. As we flagged in our 22 Jan 2015 report, China has walked out from "me-too" (generic drugs) to more "mebetter" drug type (an improvement version), we believe that Chinese government intends to encourage the local players to have more self-discovered drugs sales. Quality generic drugs also receive priority procurement. The Chinese government, on 20 Feb, announced that those generic medicines already attained international production standard (presumably the new GMPcompliant) will receive priority procurement from hospital. This aims to reward the local drug-makers producing quality medicines. At the same time, the government re-affirmed that all medicines (excluding Chinese medicine tablets) for hospital usage have to be subject to the central procurement from their own provincial based procurement platform. Positive to local drug-makers rich in self-discovered medicines. We see domestic drug-makers with good self-discovered drug sales would have higher chances to enter into this new negotiation mechanism. For stocks under Guosen coverage, we reckon that Sihuan Pharma (460.HK, BUY, TP:HKD6.65) and Livzon Pharm (1513.HK, BUY, TP:HKD74.00), whose self-discovered drug sales would account for 59% and 39% of FY14 total revenue respectively, would likely benefit from this development. Other bigger drug-makers not under Guosen coverage, which will also benefit from this new policy, are Sino-biopharm (1177.HK, non-rated), Luye Pharm (2186.HK, non-rated) and CSPC (1093.HK, nonrated). Further, drug-marketers with huge exclusive foreign drug sales would also likely become a beneficiary, such as China Medical System (867.HK, non-rated) whose exclusive drug sales made up 49% of FY13 revenue. China / Health Care 02 March 2015 Sector Performance 50, , , , , Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Source: Bloomberg HSI Jason Siu PhD SFC CE No.: AVV jason.siu@guosen.com.hk EqualWeightedIndex Figure 1: Sector Valuation Summary Price(2 Mar 15) FYE1 FYE2 FYE1 FYE2 TP Stock BBG HK$ PE(x) PE(x) Yield(%) Yield(%) HK$ Upside(%) Rating Livzon Pharm 1513 HK Buy Shandong Weigao 1066 HK Neutral Sihuan Pharma 460 HK Buy The United Labor 3933 HK Buy Source: Guosen Securities (HK) See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 行业报告医疗保健 - 政策快讯优质药品定价可更明亮在 2 月 28 日, 国务院办公厅发布公立医院药品集中采购指导意见, 实行药品分类采购尤其是对部分专利药品独家生产药品, 建立多方参与的价格谈判机制, 医院可按谈判结果进行采购优先采购达到国际水平的仿制药我们认为部分制药商具有良好的自家研发药品销售将受益于这方面的发展中国 / 行业 2015 年 3 月 2 日对部分专利药品独家生产药品建立价格谈判机制在 2 月 28 日, 国务院办公厅发布公立医院药品集中采购指导意见它指出, 尤其是对部分专利药品独家生产药品, 建立多方参与的价格谈判机制, 医院可按谈判结果进行采购这可提供中国人民更广泛选择的优质药品, 并缓解药品行业中, 近期在一些省份较低中标价结果所带来的负面情绪正如我们在 2015 年 1 月 22 日报道中说, 中国已经走出从仿制药年代, 进入改良版药物时代, 我们认为中国政府有意鼓励制药商有更多从自家研发药品而来的收入优先采购优质的仿制药在 2 月 20 日, 国务院宣布某些达到国际水平的仿制药可获医院优先采购这旨在鼓励本地制药商生产优质药品同时, 政府再次确认, 医院使用的所有药品 ( 不含中药饮片 ) 均应通过省级药品集中采购平台采购青睐具有丰富原创药销售的制药商我们看到具有丰富原创药销售的国内制药商, 将有较高机会进入新价格谈判机制在国信 ( 香港 ) 覆盖的公司中, 我们认为四环医药 (460.HK, 买入, 目标价 : HKD6.65) 和丽珠药业 (1513.HK, 买入, 目标价 :HKD74.00) 可受益于这一发展中, 其自家研发药品销售将分别占 2014 财年总收入为很大的 59% 和 39%, 其他国信 ( 香港 ) 未有覆盖的国内制药商, 但亦将受益于此为中国生物制药 (1177.HK, 未评级 ), 绿叶制药 ( 2186.HK, 未评级 ) 和石药集团 (1093.HK, 未评级 ) 此外, 进口药推广代理具有庞大的独家药品销售也可将成为受益者, 如康哲药业 (867.HK, 未评级 ), 其独家药品销售占 2013 财年总收入的 49% 股价表现 50, , , , , Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 HSI 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 萧智舜 PhD 证监会中央编号 : AVV jason.siu@guosen.com.hk EqualWeightedIndex 行业概览股价 (2 Mar 15) 股票代码 ( 港元 ) FYE1 FYE2 FYE1 FYE2 目标价市盈率 (x) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 股息率 (%) ( 港元 ) 上升空间 (%) 评级丽珠集团 1513 HK 买入山东威高 1066 HK 中性四环医药 460 HK 买入联邦制药国际 3933 HK 买入资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2 2

3 Patented or exclusive drugs to enter price negotiation method. Patented or exclusive drugs to enter price negotiation mechanism. From the new guideline paper on classification of drug procurement by public hospitals, certain patented or exclusive drugs would be eligible to enter into a pricing negotiation mechanism, whereby hospitals will procure the medicines based on the pricing from the negotiation result. This aims to provide wider selection of quality medicines for Chinese masses. As we flagged in our 24 Feb 2015 note, many local drug-makers such as Sihuan Pharm, would opt for supplementary tenders in certain provinces, which are less price sensitive for their self-discovered drugs. As we cited in our 22 Jan 2015 report, China has walked out from "me-too" (generic drugs) to more "me-better" drug type, an improvement version over an existing patented or off-patent drug. Chinese government intends to encourage the local players to have more revenue from selfdiscovered drugs. We foresee that China would likely have more "me-better" and self-discovered patented medicines ("me-only"), making up to 20% of China's whole pharmaceutical market sales by 2021 from a mere 5% of 2012's total. As such, we re-iterate our stance that self-discovered drugs by local players would less likely be subjected to further tough policy in China, such as restrictive usage or further price cut. Local drug-makers with good percentage of revenue derived from self-discovered drug sales would have higher chances to enter into this new negotiation mechanism. For stocks under Guosen coverage, we reckon that Sihuan Pharma and Livzon Pharm, whose self-discovered drug sales will account for a big 59% and 39% of FY14 total revenue respectively, would likely benefit from this development. Other bigger local drugmakers, which are not under Guosen coverage but appear to benefit from this new policy, are Sino-biopharm, Luye Pharm and CSPC. Although United Lab (3933.HK, BUY, TP:HKD5.60) also produces quality antibiotics under its new-gmp compliant facility as well as its good exports, we believe that the company remains overhang on its sluggish antibiotics sales as a result of restrictive usage. Other essential medicines likely to see direct hospital procurement Other essential medicines likely to have direct hospital procurement. Other drugs for emergency use, infusion sets, female/children specialty medicines or commonlyused low priced drugs may be collectively registered on the internet for hospital direct procurement. Consistent with the government's long-term goal of making essential drugs available to Chinese populations, this should encourage more drug-makers to produce these medicines and prevent supply shortages. The move will ease the imbalances in local drug market, after series of price cuts, which led to drug quality problems and shortages in China. Quality generic medicines already reached international standard will receive priority procurement: Guideline paper on classification of drug procurement by public hospitals: Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Figure 3 Central government of China issued a guideline paper on certain types of drug procurement by public hospitals (in Chinese). Source: Central government of China ( Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Figure 4 Central government of China issued a guideline paper on certain types of drug procurement by public hospitals (cont d) (in Chinese) Source: Central government of China ( Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has investment banking relationship within the past 12 months to Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. (1513HK). Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the other listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 6

7 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动国信证券 ( 香港 ) 在过去 12 个月内与丽珠医药集团股份有限公司 (1513HK) 有投资银行关系 ; 而在过去 12 个月内与其他公司并无投资银行关系国信证券 ( 香港 ) 员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 Guosen Securities (HK) 7

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February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)