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1 Bauxite & Alumina Key Issues 铝土矿 & 氧化铝关键事项 Ron Knapp International Aluminium Institute 罗恩耐普国际铝业协会 3 rd Asian Metal Bulletin Bauxite and Alumina Conference 第 3 届金属导报亚洲矾土 & 氧化铝会议 Singapore 新加坡 30 October 年 10 月 30 日

2 International Aluminium Institute(IAI) 国际铝业协会 ( 简称 IAI) Global association of companies involved in the production and use of aluminium 涉及铝生产和使用的全球性的公司协会 To promote the benefits of aluminium and communicate the good performance of the industry 推广铝的优势并宣传行业的优良表现

3 Aluminium Centroid the shift in global production 铝质心 - 全球生产的转变 (million tonnes = 百万吨 )

4 Smelter Grade Alumina and the pull of China consumption 冶炼级氧化铝 (SGA) - 中国消费的拉动效应

5 IAI sustainability goal: promoting aluminium use and recycling IAI 可持续发展的目标 : 促进铝的使用和回收 part of the Aluminium Story suite of websites 部分铝故事汇网站 Buildings 建筑 (2009) Transport 交通 (2010) Recycling 回收 (2011) Packaging 包装 (2011) Bauxite & alumina 铝土矿 & 氧化铝 (2012) Primary metal production 原铝生产 (2012)

6 Our industry must responsibly manage our use of raw materials and inputs 本行业必须负责任地管理原材料及其他投入的使用 Rehabilitate mining sites 矿区复垦 Improve alumina recovery rates 提升氧化铝回收率 Reduce water consumption 减少水消耗 Improve energy efficiency 提高能效 Manage emissions and bauxite residue (red mud) 排放及铝土矿渣 ( 赤泥 ) 管理 Reduce caustic use; improve caustic recovery 烧碱的使用, 增进烧碱回收降低

Specific energy use (MJ/t Al 2 O 3 ) 能耗 ( 兆焦 / 吨氧化铝 ) Global SGA refining energy intensity 全球生产冶金级氧化铝单位能耗 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 Objective: 10% reduction in energy use per tonne of

7 Specific energy use (MJ/t Al 2 O 3 ) 能耗 ( 兆焦 / 吨氧化铝 ) Global SGA refining energy intensity 全球生产冶金级氧化铝单位能耗 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 Objective: 10% reduction in energy use per tonne of alumina produced for the industry as a whole by 2020 versus 目标 :2020 年生产氧化铝的单位能耗较 2006 年降低 10% 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12, Data source: IAI + CNIA + CRU

8 Asia... the world s dominant economic growth powerhouse 亚洲世界上占主导地位的经济增长源 Dominant in the BRIC grouping 金砖四国中的主导地位 and N11, the next countries driving world growth... including Indonesia 金钻 11 国, 下一批推动世界增长的新兴国家, 包括印尼 aluminium sector no exception to this Asian driver, in both production and consumption 铝行业也毫无例外地在生产和消费方面接受亚洲驱动

9 Global aluminium consumption continues to grow 全球铝的消费量持续增长 China remains major growth market for aluminium - as is ROW 与世界其他地区相比, 中国仍是铝业的主要增长市场 aluminium consumption continues to grow at rates higher than GDP growth in both China and ROW (notwithstanding some regions/countries being below this trend) 铝的消费增长速度在中国和世界其他地区持续高于 GDP 增长 ( 尽管一些地区 / 国家低于这一趋势 ) 2004 to 2012 an average global growth rate of about 6%/annum 至 2012 年全球年平均成长率约为 6%

10 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Average Daily Primary Aluminium Production (Thousands of Metric Tons) 原铝平均日产量 ( 千吨 ) Global Aluminium Average Daily Production 全球原铝日平均产量

11 Primary Aluminium Production (thousand tonnes) 原铝产量 ( 千吨 ) 7000 Primary Aluminium Production 原铝产量 ROW (Form 150) China 蓝 : 世界其他地区红 : 中国

12 Global primary aluminium consumption by 至 2020 年的全球原铝消费量 Analysts forecast around 70+ Mt by 2020 (from 48 Mt in 2012) 分析师预测到 2020 年的消费量过 7000 万吨 (2012 年为 4800 万吨 ) CRU: 70.9 Mt... Harbor: 72.5 Mt... WoodMac: 71.4 Mt, etc. CRU:7090 万吨 Harbor:7250 万吨 WoodMac:7140 万吨. a conservative 4.5% annual growth rate (c.f. 6% average in recent years) is 68 Mt in 2020, an additional 20 Mt in 8 years. 按照年均增长 4.5% 的保守估计 ( 近几年的平均增长率为 6%, 在 )2020 年的消费量达 6800 万吨, 8 年内增加 2000 万吨

13 A 20 Mt increase in global primary aluminium consumption requires... 全球 2000 万吨的原铝消费增长将需要 An extra 40 Mt of alumina 4000 万吨额外的氧化铝 and an extra 110 Mt of bauxite by 至 2020 年 1 亿 1000 万吨额外的铝土矿

14 China alumina production a dramatic increase 中国氧化铝生产引人注目的增长 Alumina production from 3.8 Mt in 1999 to 36.6 Mt in 2012 (SGA) 氧化铝产量从 1999 年的 380 万吨到 2012 年的 3660 万吨 ( 冶金级氧化铝 ) now 40% of global alumina production 目前氧化铝产量占全球的 40%

15 Total Alumina Production (thousand Tonnes) 氧化铝产量 ( 千吨 ) 18,000 Total Alumina Production 氧化铝产量 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - ROW China 蓝 : 世界其他地区红 : 中国

16 Alumina Average Daily Production (thousand tonnes) 氧化铝平均日常量 ( 千吨 ) Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul Alumina Average Daily Production 氧化铝平均日产量 Total Metallurgical 蓝 : 冶金级 & 化学级氧化铝红 : 冶金级氧化铝

17 百万吨 Million Tonne China s recent alumina imports 中国近期氧化铝进口量 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

18 百万吨 Million Tonne China s recent bauxite imports 中国近期铝土矿月进口量 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

19 Tonne 吨 6,000,000 China s bauxite imports from Australia and Indonesia 中国从澳大利亚和印尼月铝土矿进口额 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - Australia 澳大利亚 Indonisia 印尼

20 China bauxite demand triggers other global changes 中国铝土矿的需求引发了其他全球变化 Indonesia negotiating cessation of bauxite exports, a policy objective towards the establishment of a domestic alumina industry 印度尼西亚基于建立本土氧化铝行业的政策, 商议停止铝土矿出口 what happens next? 接下来会发生什么?

21 China and Indonesia... and bauxite 中国与印尼关于铝土矿 China imported 36 mt from Indonesia in 2011 (CRU), and 28mt in 2012 (CNAL) 2011 年中国从印尼进口铝土矿 3600 万吨 (CRU), 2012 年进口量为 2800 万吨 (CNAL) Monthly import in 2013 (mt) 2013 月进口额 ( 百万吨 ) Month 月份 Jan 一 Feb 二 Mar 三 Apr 四 May 五 Jun 六 Jul 七 Aug 八 Sep 九 Bauxite 铝土矿 Australian bauxite to China jumped from 0.6 mt in June 2012 to 1.6mt in September 澳大利亚出口到中国的铝土矿由 2012 年 6 月的 60 万吨增长至 2013 年九月的 160 万吨

22 An alternative bauxite supply paradigm for China 中国铝土矿供给的另一种模式 Will the Indonesian policy be fixed or flexible? 印度尼西亚的政策将是固定的还是灵活的? where can replacement bauxite be found? Existing supply sources, new options? 替代的铝土矿供应在何处? 现有的供应来源, 新选择? bauxite-to-alumina for expanded minerals processing and increased industrial development. 从铝土矿到氧化铝, 扩大矿产品加工, 增加工业发展

23 Indonesian alumina for China? 印尼氧化铝之于中国? Industry reports have a number of Indonesian alumina developments on the drawing boards or under construction 有许多关于印尼规划或建设氧化铝单位的行业报告

24 Indonesian alumina for China? 印尼氧化铝之于中国? PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) - Hangzhou Jinjiang 1.2 Mt SGA 印尼阿内卡矿业公司 - 杭州锦江集团 120 万吨冶金级氧化铝厂 China Hongqiao Group, Winning Investment (HK), PT Cita Mineral Investindo, PT Danpac Resources Kalbar 2.0 Mt SGA, Phase Mt Q 中国宏桥集团, Winning Investment (HK), PT Cita Mineral Investindo, PT Danpac Resources Kalbar 200 万吨冶金级氧化铝厂,2015 年第四季度一期完成 100 万吨冶金级氧化铝 Chalco - PT Indonusa Dwitama, 1.0 Mt SGA, 中铝公司 - PT Indonusa 2014 年 100 万吨冶金级氧化铝厂 [PT Antam & Showa Denko 0.3 Mt chemical grade, 2014] [ 印尼阿内卡矿业公司与昭和电工 2014 年 30 万吨化学级氧化铝 ]

25 Indonesian alumina and aluminium for China? 印尼氧化铝以及原铝之于中国? October 16 th announcement by Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co Ltd for an integrated $5 billion aluminium operation on the Indonesian island of Bintan to be operational within three years 10 月 16 日山东南山铝业股份有限公司宣布, 在印尼民丹岛上, 耗资 50 亿美元的铝业务将于三年内开始运作 Indonesian bauxite to be processed at a 2.1 million tonnes per annum alumina refinery to support a 0.53 million tonne aluminium smelter 印尼氧化铝精炼厂每年需处理铝土矿 210 万吨, 以支持 53 万吨的铝冶炼厂

26 Opportunity to establish an alumina industry in Indonesia under world best practice conditions 印尼可参考业内经验建设自身的氧化铝行业... covering mining activities, alumina recovery rates, water consumption, energy efficiency, emissions management, dust control, caustic use and recovery 包括采矿, 氧化铝回收率, 水消耗, 能效, 排放管理, 粉尘控制, 烧碱使用和回收 and bauxite residue management, our industry s largest waste stream and greatest potential impact on the environment. 铝土矿残渣管理, 是本行业的最大的废物流, 对环境的潜在影响最大

27 IAI bauxite residue voluntary global objectives IAI 铝土矿残渣管理五个自愿全球目标包括 a) Integrity of current residue storage facilities 保证当前残渣贮存设施的完整性 b) Provision of industry based assistance 提供基于业界的广泛支持 c) Best practice management 最佳实践管理 d) Conclusion of bauxite residue solids disposal to marine and aquatic environment 结束向海洋和水生环境倾倒铝土矿残渣的做法 e) Improved technology 改进的技术

28 Bauxite Residue Management Guidelines 铝土矿残渣管理指南 not a single approach, but options for addressing different global conditions in an effective, environmentally-sound manner. 针对全球不同情况, 提供有效的, 对环境无害的解决选项, 而非以一概全的单一的方法

29 New work on bauxite residue management 有关铝土矿残渣管理的新项目 University of Western Australia In Situ Remediation project investigating treatment response 西澳大利亚大学 (UWA) 的原址修复工程调查铝土矿残渣的处理反应 University of Limerick research project to develop a wetlands for alkaline leachate management 利默里克大学的碱性渗滤湿地开发项目

30 International Aluminium Institute(IAI) 国际铝业协会 ( 简称 IAI)

31 The aluminium industry must demonstrate that... 铝业需展现 1. it produces responsibly, by mitigating environmental impacts and contributing to the communities where it operates; 负责任的生产, 减轻对环境的影响并对其经营所在区作出贡献 ; 2. its products bring a net benefit to society through reduced environmental impact; improved quality of life, health, safety & wellness and economic growth; 社会净效益, 其产品降低对环境的影响, 提升生活品质, 促进健康安全及经济增长 ; 3. at the end of product life, the value of the metal, the energy and resource inputs used in its production are retained and realised as another product, through collection and recycling or energy recovery. 金属价值, 金属生产期的能源及其它投入, 在产品寿命结束时, 通过回收利用, 以另一种产品的形式实现再生或能源再利用

32 The IAI is ready to work with participants on all aspects of the bauxite and alumina industry IAI 诚意和各方就铝土矿 & 氧化铝事业合作 Thank you 谢谢

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