众说纷纭中国水安全/Divergent opinions about water security of China

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施铨鲍
6 years ago
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2 提纲/Outline 1. 众说纷纭水安全/ Divergent opinions about water security of China 2. 水资源安全综合评指标体系/Indicative system 3. 中国水资源安全评结论/Assessment conclusions 4. 中国水资源安全对策/Countermeasures

3 众说纷纭中国水安全/Divergent opinions about water security of China

4 美国参议院听证会 The US Senate hearing 因缺水中国会引起世界粮食危机中国400 城缺水 200 严能源基地会吸干黄河水一半以自来水合格缺水

真有400 城缺水吗 Really over 400 cities lack water? 合理的疑严缺水影响在哪 Reasonable doubt: where is the impact of serious water shortage while rapid development? 缺水的定义标准供水能满足需求 Definition of water shortage 1.

5 真有400 城缺水吗 Really over 400 cities lack water? 合理的疑严缺水影响在哪 Reasonable doubt: where is the impact of serious water shortage while rapid development? 缺水的定义标准供水能满足需求 Definition of water shortage 1. 能把水量丰富水质良好而因设施老管理善影响供水的城定性缺水城 /Aging facilities, Poor management under abundant water. is not of water shortage 2. 能把有可替代水源而超采地水的城定性缺水城 /Over exploitation of groundwater while existing other water sources is not of WS city 能把偶尔缺水的城能把区域缺水 shortage 城定义缺水城 /occasional cutting off is not shortage. 缺水混淆 /Regional shortage not equal to city

6 最要的是能把潜在需求等同于需求 Potential need is not market demand 经济学认没有支付能力的需求 on need without paying capacity. /Don t count 说因水高条好来投资就是真正的投资需求也说明些企业可以在合适的其他地区投资 /Possible investment (-moved to other better water condition region finally) is not the real investment

7 具体的城缺水标准/Standards for water shortage city 没有合适的供水水源来满足合理的城 /without suitabe water supply source 用水需求只要能到合适的供水水源就能算是缺水城 /If only there exist suitable water supply source for a city, the city can t be classified as WS city.

8 中国缺水城只有80个/Only 80 cities of water shortage 松花江流域 6个河流域 8个海河流域 25个黄河流域 15个淮河流域 12个长江流域 3 六盘水贵南 6个内流河 5个海等兰察等

9 严缺水城只有32个/Only 32 cites of serious water shortage 严缺水的判断依据是长期而言当地水源足外调水成本高会有供水成本较的城供水水源/The standards of serious WS: no enough water source, high cost of water supply 要分 1. 在海河流域有19个/19 cities in Hai basin 2. 其次是黄河流域有9个其中山西省汾河流域占了7个/9 in Yellow river basin 3. 内流河流域2个 4. 东 5. 淮河流域一个兰察金昌 /2 in inland basins 嫩江流域1个霍林郭勒 /1 in Nenjiang basin 亳州 /1 in Huai basin

10 中国的粮食生产用水有保障吗/Can China guarantee water supply for grain? 粮食产量农业用水 agricultural water use(100 million t) grain yield(10000t) 第一句话中国用更少的水生产了更多的粮食/First judgement: having produced more grain with less water

11 第二句话/second judgement 2014年粮食产量6.071亿吨已经超过了2020年规划产量5.5亿吨接近2030年14.5亿人人均420千克的需求量6.09亿吨 China produced million ton of grain in 2014, greatly surpassed the planned output for year 2020 and neared the demand in 2030 for 1.45 billion population and 420kg/person grain standard.

12 能源用水会构成严危机 Energy water: will not form a serious crisis 火电用水占工业用水的比确实比较高但要用于南方方缺水地区多 1/3 Thermal power is really the main industrial water user,taking up 1/3 water use But, most thermal power water use took place in South China as once-through cooling water, where there is enough water.

13 Water for power plants decreased 8 3 (10 m ) North South

14 黄河中游是矛盾焦点/the middle-upper reaches of the Yellow River is the focus of conflict 未来要的能源基地在 /The main energy base of China, 70% of coal supply of China while coal constitutes of 70% total energy supply

15 But water demand of energy base is not so big! 当地目前的火电用水只有6.5亿方未来规划15亿方并像一些危言耸听的100亿方甚至300亿方 The present thermal power water use is only 0.65 b.m3/year. The future demand is predicted at 1.5 b.m3, not so big as to b.m3. 要靠农业节水万一够可以修建南水调西线的部分工程 will mainly depend on the water saving of agricultural sector. If still not satisfied, the West-Route of SNWTP has been planned.

16 全国水资源安全综合评 Synthetical assessment of water resources security of China

17 水资源安全概念 definition of water resources security Socio-economic and ecological water demand are satisfied with 1. 足够数量/enough quantity 2. 符合要求的质量/acceptable quality 3. 可长期持续 4. 可以水资源供水生的成本/affordable cost /sustainability

18 评指标体系/indicator system 4 aspects:quantity, quality, sustainability and cost 10 sub-principles 31 indicators

19 束条 main principle enough quantity 水资源数量足够 acceptable quality 水质 sustainability 可持续性 affordable cost 成本格子束/sub-principle 评指标 indicators 总需水满足率/ratio of total water satisfied 生活需水满足率/ratio of domestic and commercial Water satisfied 常年需水数量满足程 Satisfaction degree 农业灌溉需水满足率/ 工业需水满足率城镇供水保证率供水保证率农村生活供水保证率 Guarrantee ratio 灌溉用水保证率河流水域功能标长比例湖泊水域功能标面积比例自然水体水质近海水域功能标率 source water quality 城饮用水水源标率农村饮用水水源标率城镇自来水水质标率农村饮用水供水水质标率供水水质 Terminal use water quality 工业用水水质标率灌溉用水水质标率当地水资源减少的可能性幅水资源可持续性 Resource sustainability 客水减少的可能性幅水资源过开发率开发利用可持续性地水超采率 Development sustainability 有争议或未签议水权占全部用水权比例生需水满足率水生可持续性因缺水引起的绿洲萎缩率 Ecosystem sustainability 因缺水引起的湖泊萎缩率生活用水水人均收入比生活水居民是否可以家庭水费支出占家庭可支配收入的比例 Domestic water price 收入人群水费补助率水费占总生产成本的比生产水企业是否可以 Industry water price 生产水其它国家的比较供水成本的国际比较供水成本社会是否可以 Social cost of supply 供水成本的经济增长弹性

20 中国水资源安全评结论 Assessment conlusion no.1 水资源数量总量足够但方若干流域矛盾突出/total quantity is enough, but some local area in north and northwest China in shortage 1. 全国2030年的高峰需水量被要求控制在7000亿方实际可能会超过6500亿方/The future demand will most probably be lower than 650 b.m3 2. 考虑生需水经济可能性全国可供水量 8100亿方/The available for human use is 810 b.m3 3. 但海河流域汾渭盆地河西走廊天山麓西河流域水资源开发过水量足/ Shortage area: Hai basin, middle reach of Yellow river basin, Hexi corridor, Xinjiang, etc.

21 Although there are some crises, Water Quantity is enough for China! (km3) 3,000 2,780 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, available for human withdrawal peak water use planned Total resources

22 Red color: shortage area

评结论 assessment conclusion no.2 水资源质量 threat 1. 2/3河长被明显污染 length polluted 2. 一半以 3. 自来水出厂合格率只有83% 终端合格率更 terminal quality worse 4. 灌溉水质有风险连带土壤被污染农产品品质 controlled 5.

23 评结论 assessment conclusion no.2 水资源质量 threat 1. 2/3河长被明显污染 length polluted 2. 一半以 3. 自来水出厂合格率只有83% 终端合格率更 terminal quality worse 4. 灌溉水质有风险连带土壤被污染农产品品质 controlled 5. 淡水水域近海水域被污染水产品质量堪忧/ risk of Aquatic products from polluted water 地安全是中国水资源安全的首要威胁/quality insecurity is the number 1 水采到二类标准 1/3被严污染到Ⅲ 类 /2/3 river 点水质属于差极差/more than half sample well quality poor Water factory pass rate only 83% 影响/waste water irrigation not well

24 Red color: most polluted area

评结论 assessment conclusion no.3 水资源安全的可持续性属于 sustainability improved 1. 安全近年有所改善/ 方降水有转多的迹象/transforming to rich precipitation period in northern China 2.

25 评结论 assessment conclusion no.3 水资源安全的可持续性属于 sustainability improved 1. 安全近年有所改善/ 方降水有转多的迹象/transforming to rich precipitation period in northern China 2. 水资源开发过的地方建成或在建调水工程海水淡工程中水回用工程/new water supply projects finished or constructing 3. 生需水得到部分恢复黄河再断流干涸的湖泊又有了水面/ecological water requirement has been given more priority

26 Sustainability index distribution

27 评结论 assessment conclusion no.4 Cost affordability index distribution

28 Synthetical assessment index distribution

29 未来趋势/future trend 水量保障程提高修建了一系列调水工程海水淡程/promoting quantity guarantee ratio 水生工继续好转/improving water ecology 水环境更相信会好转/more strict water pollution control 水会升但供水成本 cost and price will rise 会大幅升/water supply 综合判断水资源安全程总体升/Comprehensive judgment security level promote

30 中国水资源安全对策 Countermeasures 以水污染治中 Take the prevention and control of water pollution as the priority among priorities 以污染源控制心真正控制排污总量/Take the pollution source control as the core 借产业升和污染治的东风促进用水零增长/By the east wind of industrial upgrading and pollution prevention and control, to realize water use zero growth 通过结构调整和提高效率来满足经济翻番的用水需求/Through structural adjustment and improve efficiency to meet the water demand of economy doubling 大力扶持非常规水源的开发雨水中水海水 /Vigorously support the development of unconventional water resources 建立和完善水资源配置的场机制水权改革得继续水制得理顺水资源管理体制要场经济相适应/Play the role of market in the allocation of water resources.

31 请批评指正 welcome criticism 谢谢 Thanks Shaofeng Jia:

Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化, 鼓励替代

Chinese oil import policies and reforms SINOPEC EDRI 2014.8 Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化,