518 ( ) 3, ( ), 1,,, :, () 1978, ;,, ( ) 1951, 1955,,, ( Zhao, 2000), 20 60,,,,,, Wu (1994) Zhao (2000), ( ), (1994),,,,, ( ) 1978,, ;,,, 1,(2001),Ma

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1 ( ) China Economic Quarterly Vol. 3, No. 3 April, 2004,? 3 : (1) ; (2) ; (3), ; (4),, 1978, ( ),,, (1999),, (2000) ;, (2000) ;, (1999) ;, West Zhao (2000) 20 70, Todaro ( Todaro, 1969) Harris2Todaro ( Harris Todaro, 1970),, / Harris2Todaro ;, Nabi ( 1984) Rosenzweig Stark (1989), Williamson (1988), (),,,, 3 :, ;: (010) ; E2mail pku. edu. cn ;: (010) ,Xiao2 qing Yu,

2 518 ( ) 3, ( ), 1,,, :, () 1978, ;,, ( ) 1951, 1955,,, ( Zhao, 2000), 20 60,,,,,, Wu (1994) Zhao (2000), ( ), (1994),,,,, ( ) 1978,, ;,,, 1,(2001),Ma (2000) Yao (2001a)

3 3 : 519, (Zhao, 1999 Cai, 2001) , 0. 24, , Zhao (2000) Zhao (2000),, ; ;, Wu (1994), %, %, 20 60,, 1978, % ;,, ( Zhao, 2000) ;,,, ( ) 1979, ;, , (Zhao, 1999a), , ( %) (Lin, 1992), ( Zhao, 1999a) ;,,,,,, (Meng Zhang, 2001 ; Cai, 2001), 20 80, 2 3 ;

4 520 ( ) 3, ( Rozelle, 1999) Zhao Sicular (2002), , , ; 1 (2000), 2 1 (: ) :(2002) 421, 524, 1223 ;Sicular Zhao (2002), (: ) : (2000), 1 3, 735,73. 5,, 1982, 4,,

5 3 : 521, 5,,, 6 ( ) Huang Pieke (2003) ,, , , 20 80,, 1989,, ,, 1995,,, (2001) 3, 1989, , , ;,, 1995, ;,,, ( Zhao, 1999a), (Davin, 2000) 5 :,, ; :,, 6,

6 522 ( ) 3 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) ; ; ; ; ; ;, % ; ;,1997, ; ;1998 ; ; ;, 34 ;1999 8, 4,12 ; A B C, 35,103 :(2001) 4 ( ) ,, ,,, (, 2002),,,,,, (1997 ) ( ), : (1) ; (2) ; (3)

7 3 : 523, ( ), : ( push and pull factors) 20 50, (growing modern industrial complex ) (Williamson, 1988), Todaro (1969) Harris Todaro (1970), ( ) 4, 1980, (, 1994), (Johnson, 2002) (1994) 20 80, 1985 ; (, 1994), (Johnson, 2002),, V Yang Zhou (1999), ; 1985,, 2,, ( ),, ; 5, (Jalan Ravallion, 2000), ( Zhao, 2001)

8 524 ( ) 3 (1996),, ( ) ;, Hare (1999) ( duration analysis), Jalan Ravallion (2000) (quantile regression), Yao (2001b) tobit (to2 bit model) 4 (1994) 3 Johnson (2002) : (1994), :Johnson (2002), 2 5 (1996) 1990 ; ; ;, (OLS) ;

9 3 : 525 Zhao (1997a) :,,,, 7 % ; 1996, 2. 8 % ;, Logit ( Multi2 nomial Logit Model) ; Hare (1999) Hare (1999),,,,30 % ;1995, ;, 10 % ; Probit ( Probit Mod2, el), (spell),,27 % ; 1995 ;, (Duration Analysis) Zhao (1999a),, ,,55. 3 %,, % ; Logit (Logit Mod2 el) ; ; Zhao (1999b), ,, ; Logit (Logit Model) Jalan Ravallion (2000), , ; ; ( Panel da2 ta) ( Quantile Regression) Zhao (2001), 1999,,,,,,,,, Logit (Logit Model) Zhu (2002),,, 1993,, ;,, ( Switching Re2 ; gression) ; Probit ; ( Structural Probit Model)

10 526 ( ) 3, 1990, (1996), ( ) (proxy variable) (1997a) Zhao (1999a, 1999b), Zhu (2002),, 4. 4 %(Zhao, 1999a) ;, 2. 8 %(Zhao, 1999b) ; Hare (1999),,, 27 % (the migration spell), Zhu (2002), (1996),, Hare (1999) ; % Harris2Todaro, V Zhu (2002), U Hare (1999) Zhao (1999a), (Zhao, 1997a),, ;,, ( Zhao, 1999a), Zhao (1997b) ;,,, Zhao ( ), (Zhao, 1999a) ;, (, 1997a) Hare (1999), Zhao (1999b), Zhu (2002),, () (, )

11 3 : 527 (1997a) Zhao (1999a) logit,, (Zhu, 2002), (1997a) 7 %; Hare (1999) 30 %; Zhao (1999a), % 2. 8 % (, 1997a) 10 % ( Hare, 1999) Zhao (1999a), % Zhu (2002), ( ) Jalan Ravallion (2000), Zhao (2001), Hare (1999) Yao ( 2001b) ( duration analysis), Hare (1999) (the spell of migration), 27 % ; ;, (exit probability),, Yao (2001b),, tobit, Yao (2001b) Hare (1999) Yao (2001b), McDonald2Moffitt ( McDonald Moffitt, 1980), (intensive contribution) ( ) (extensive contribution) ( ), ( ),,

12 528 ( ) 3,,,,, (Sicular Zhao, 2002),, (external validity), ( market segrega2 tion) (wage determination) (wage differentials) (market flexibility) 6 6 Zhao (1999a) , % ; ;, % ; (OLS), 9. 0 % ; Yao (2001a) Meng Zhang(2001) Meng Zhang(2001) 135 % (, ) ;, ; ;, (OLS) , ; ( :,,,, ;, ;,, Logit ( Multi2 ) nomial Logit Model) , ;, ;, ;, (OLS)

13 3 : 529 Meng (2001) Meng (2001) Zhu (2002), 1995 ( : ;, Logit ( Multinomial Logit ), Model),1995 ; ; ( Heck2,, man Two2step Model) ; ;, U ; 1993, ;, Switching ( Switch2 ing Regression with Se2 lection2bias Correction) ( ),, (, 2001),, (1998a, 1998b, 1998c),, ;,, Yang Zhou (1999),, 1992, ,

14 530 ( ) 3 Zhao (1999a) 7, ;,,, ( Yao, 2001a),,,, (Yao, 2001a), Meng Zhang (2001),,, 1 %, 19 % ( Knight, Song Jia, 1999), % ( Yao, 2001a) Knight, Song Jia (1999),,, Meng (2001),,,, ( ), Meng Zhang (2001) 1 %;, ;, 50 %, Yao (2001a), 135 %, (), ;, Meng Zhang Yao Rosen (1974) Hedonic Rosen Meng Zhang (2001) 7, 1000,533 (Zhao,1999a)

15 3 : 531, Yao (2001a),, Meng Zhang (2001), 82 %, Gordon Li (1999), ;,, ; ;, (Meng, 2001) Yao (1999b),, Zhao (1999a),, % ;, % ;, 9. 0 %Yao (1999b), Zhao (1999a) ( ) (rigidity),, Meng (2001),,,,, Gordon Li (1999), ( ) Dong Bowles (2002) ( ),,,,,, ( ),, :,

16 532 ( ) 3,,, ( ), ( ), Zhu (2002) :, ;, ;,,,,, Zhu,, Zhu, :,, ; 2000 ;,, :, ;,,,,, Zhu,, V,, 5 ( ),,,,, 1995,,,,

17 3 : 533,, 20,, :, ;,,,, : Taylor, Rozelle de Brauw (2002) ; Zhao (2002) ; Bai (2000),,, Au Henderson (2002),,,,, [ 1 ] Au, Chun2Chung and Henderson, V., How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Produc2 tivity in China, NB ER working paper, 2002, [ 2 ] Bai, Nansheng, The Effect of Labor Migration on Agriculture : An Empirical Study, in R ural L abor Flows in China, eds. Loraine A. West and Yaohui Zhao, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, [ 3 ], :,, , [ 4 ],:,, , [ 5 ],:,, , [ 6 ],,, 1996, [ 7 ] Cai, Fang, Institutional Barriers in Two Processes of Rural Labor Migration in China, Working Paper Series No. 9, Institute of Population Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, [ 8 ],,, , [ 9 ],,, 2000

18 534 ( ) 3 [ 10 ] Davin, Dellia, Migrants and the Media : Concerns about Rural Migration in the Chinese Press, in R u2 ral L abor Flows in China, eds. Loraine A. West and Yaohui Zhao, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, [ 11 ] Dong, Xiao2yuan, Paul Bowles, Segmentation and Discrimination in China s Emerging Industrial Labor Market, China Economic Review, 2002, 13, [ 12 ] Gordon, Roger, and David D. Li, The Effects of Wage Distortions on the Transition : Theory and Evi2 dence from China, European Economic Review, 1999, 43, [ 13 ], 2001, 2002 [ 14 ],,, , [ 15 ] Hare, Denise, Push versus Pull Factors in Migration Outflows and Returns : Determinants of Mi2 gration Status and Spell Duration among China s Rural Population, Journal of Development Studies, 1999, 35 (3), [ 16 ] Hare, Denise, The Determinants of Job Location and Its Effect on Migrants Wages : Evidences from Rural China, Economic Development and Cult ural Change, 2002, 50 (3), [ 17 ] Harris, John R., Michael P. Todaro, Migration, Unemployment and Development : A Two2Sector Analysis, The A merican Economic Review, 1970, 60 (1), [ 18 ] Huang, Ping, Frank N. Pieke, China Migration Country Study, Paper presented at the Conference on Migration, Development and Pro2Poor Policy Choices in Asia, Dhaka, J une 22 24, [ 19 ] Knight, John, Lina Song, and Huaibin Jia, Chinese Rural Migrants in Urban Enterprises : Three Per2 spectives, Journal of Development S t udies, 1999, 35 (3), [ 20 ] Jalan, Jyotsna, Martin Ravallion, Behavioral Responses to Risk in Rural China, Journal of Develop2 ment Economics, forthcoming. [ 21 ] Johnson, D. Gale, Can Agricultural Labour Adjustment Occur Primarily Through Creation of Rural Non2Farm Jobs in China, U rban S t udies, 2002, 39 (12), [ 22 ],,, 2000 [ 23 ],,, , [ 24 ],,, , 7 12 [ 25 ], :,,, 1994 [ 26 ] Lin, J ustin, Rural Reform and Agricultural Growth in China, The A merican Economic Review, 1992, 82 (1), [ 27 ] Ma, Xiaodong, Insider and Outsider Community Strategies toward Migrant Workers, in R ural L abor Flows in China, eds. Loraine A. West and Yaohui Zhao, Institute of East Asian Studies, Uni2 versity of California, Berkeley, [ 28 ] Meng, Xin, The Informal Sector and Rural2Urban Migration A Chinese Case Study, Asian Eco2 nomic Journal, 2001, 15 (1), [ 29 ] Meng, Xin, J unsen Zhang, The Two2Tier Labor Market in Urban China, Journal of Com parative Economics, 2001, 29, [ 30 ] McDonald, John, Robert Moffitt, The Uses of Tobit Analysis, The Review of Economics and Statis2 tics, 1980, 62 (2),

19 3 : 535 [ 31 ] Nabi, Ijaz, Village2end Considerations in Rural2Urban Migration, Journal of Development Eco2 nomics, 1984, 14, [ 32 ] Rosenzweig, Mark R., Oded Stark, Consumption Smoothing, and Migration : Evidence from Rural India, Journal of Political Economy, 1989, 97 (4), [ 33 ] Rosen, Sherwin, Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets : Product Differentiation in Pure Competition, The Journal of Political Economy, 1974, 82 (1), [ 34 ] Rozelle, Scott, Li Guo, Minggao Shen, Amelia Hughart, John Giles, Leaving China s Farms : Survey Results of New Paths and Remaining Hurdles to Rural Migration, The China Quarterly, 1999, No. 158, [ 35 ] Sicular, Terry, Yaohui Zhao, Employment and Earnings in Rural China, manuscript, [ 36 ],, [ 37 ] Taylor, J. Edward, Scott Rozelle, Alan de Brauw, Migration and Incomes in Source Communities : A New Economic of Migration Perspective from China, Economic Development and Cult ural Change, forthcoming. [ 38 ] Todaro, Michael, A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Coun2 tries, The A merican Economic Review, 1969, 59 (1), [ 39 ],,, , 8 16 [ 40 ] Wang, Tianhong, Atsushi Maruyama, Masao Kikuchi, Rural2Urban Migration and Labor Markets in China : A Case Study in a Northeastern Province, The Development Economics, 2000, 38 (1), [ 41 ] Williamson, Jeffrey G., Migration and Urbanization, Chapter 11, Handbook of Development Eco2 nomics, Vol. 1, eds. Hollis Chenery and T. N. Srinivasan, Elsevier, [ 42 ] West, A. Loraine and Yaohui Zhao, Rural Labor Flows in China, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, [ 43 ] Wu, Harry Xiaoying, Rural to Urban Migration in the People s Republic of China, China Quarter2 ly, 1994, 139, [ 44 ],, [ 45 ] Yao, Yang, Rural Industry and Labor Market Integration in Eastern China, Journal of Development Economics, 1999, 59 (2), [ 46 ] Yao, Yang, Social Exclusion and Economic Discrimination : The Status of Migrations in China s Coastal Rural Area, Working paper E , China Center for Economic Research, Peking Universi2 ty, 2001a. [ 47 ] Yao, Yang, Egalitarian Land Distribution and Labor Migration in Rural China, Working paper E , China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, 2001b. [ 48 ] Yang, Dennis Tao and Hao Zhou, Rural2Urban Disparity and Sectoral Labour Allocation in China, Journal of Development S t udies, 1999, 35 (3), [ 49 ],,, 1999 [ 50 ],,, , 1997a, [ 51 ] Zhao, Yaohui, Labor Migration and Returns to Rural Education in China, A merican Journal of A gricult ural Economics, 1997b, 79, [ 52 ] Zhao, Yaohui, Labor Migration and Earnings Differences : The Case of Rural China, Economic De2 velopment and Cult ural Change, 1999a, 47 (4), , J uly.

20 536 ( ) 3 [ 53 ] Zhao, Yaohui, Leaving the Countryside : Rural2to2Urban Migration Decision in China, A merican Economic Review, 1999b, 89 (2), , May. [ 54 ] Zhao, Yaohui, Rural2ro2Urban Labor Migration in China : The Past and the Present, in R ural L abor Flows in China, eds. Loraine A. West and Yaohui Zhao, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, [ 55 ] Zhao, Yaohui, The Role of Migrants Networks in Labor Migration : the Case of China, Working pa2 per, E , China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, [ 56 ] Zhao, Yaohui, Causes and Consequences of Return Migration : Recent Evidence from China, Journal of Com parative Economics, 2002, 30, [ 57 ] Zhu, Nong, The Impact of Income Gaps on Migration Decisions in China, China Economic Review, 2002, 13, Rural2Urban Migration in China What do We Know and What do We Need to Know? ZHON G ZHAO ( Peki ng U niversity) Abstract This paper reviews economic studies on rural2urban migration in China. The re2 view focuses on four issues : the evolution of rural2urban segmentation and migration, explanations for rural2urban migration, the interaction between migration and labor market evolution with spe2 cial attention to labor market segmentation, labor market flexibility and wage differentials, and lastly suggestions for further research. JEL Classif ication J61, J68, J42

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2005 12 3 ( 100101 ;) ( 100101) :,,,,,,,, : 20,, 20 90,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3 Urban China Research Network (UCRN) in Albany, New York,,Scott Rozelle,,,, 45 :,; ;, ( ) 25,, 80 90, 90,,,,,,, ( ), ( ), 2003