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6 2 7 1 Adams, J. (1994). Corporate Crime/Our Crime: What citizens have done and can do to curtail corporate crime. In Context, 38, 45 [Geo-2-329] C N C-IDNDR(1999). Natural Disaster and Disaster Relief in China; the China National Re p o rt on International Decade for Natural Disaster Re d u c t i o n. Beijing, Chinese National Committee IDNDR CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters [Geo-2-330] IDNDR (1999a). Progress and Challenges in Reducing Losses from Natural Disasters [Geo-2-331] IDNDR (1999b). Despite Dedicated Efforts, Number and Cost of Natural Disasters Continue To Rise. Press Release, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction [Geo-2-332] IFRC (2001). World Disasters Report International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies [Geo-2-334] IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, United States, Cambridge University Press ISDR (1999). Les retombées socio-économiques du seisme d Izmit en Turquie. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ISDR (2001). The Concept of Disaster Reduction Embodied in the ISDR. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction [Geo-2-333] Munich Re (2001). Topics 2000: Natural Catastrophes The Current Position. Special Millennium Issue. Munich, Munich Re Group ReliefWeb (2002). Natural Disasters. ReliefWeb: Project of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNDHA (2001). United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs: Internationally agreed glossary of basic terms related to Disaster Management. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction [Geo-2-335] UNDP (2001). Disaster Profiles of the Least Developed Countries. Geneva, United Nations Development Programme Emergency Response Division UNU (2001). Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the El Niño. Tokyo, United Nations University [Geo-1-032] WMO (1999). The El Niño Event: a Scientific and Technical Retrospective. Geneva, World Meteorological Organization

7 % 2 % Findlay 1996 DMC G o m m e s P e t r a s s i 1996 FAO 2001 E h r l i c h E h r l i c h 1990 DMC 2000 FAO Kim a

8 / G D P % 6. 5 % Mpofu 2000 Chenje 2000 UNDHA % 18U N H C R 2001 b S A D C 3 U N D H A 1994 E N S O

9 D i l l e y b IPCC 2001 UNEP 1999 Chenje, M. (ed., 2000). State of the Environment Zambezi Basin Maseru, Lusaka and Harare, SADC, IUCN, ZRA and SARDC Coe, M. and Foley, J. (2001). Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources of the Lake Chad Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research 27 February 2001, Vol. 106, No. D4 CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters [Geo-2-330] Dilley, M. (1997). Warning and intervention: what kind of information does the response community need from the early warning community? Internet Journal of African Studies, Vol. 2. University of Bradford ml [Geo-2-336] DMC (2000). Ten-Day Bulletin. DEKAD 19 Report (1-10 July, 2000). Nairobi, Drought Monitoring Centre Ehrlich, P. and Ehrlich, A. (1990). The Population Explosion. London, Arrow Books FAO (2000). ACC Inter-Agency Task Force on the UN Response to Long Term Food Security, Agricultural Development and Related Aspects in the Horn of Africa. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization FAO (2001). 17 Countries are Facing Exceptional Food Emergencies in Sub-Saharan Africa FAO Concerned About Deteriorating Food Situation in Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe. Press Release 01/48. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization Findlay, A.M. (1996). Population and Environment in Arid Regions. Policy and Research Paper No. 10, Paris, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Gommes, R. and Petrassi, F. (1996). Rainfall Variability and Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa since FAO Agrometeorology Working Paper No 9. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization IPCC (2001). IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Geneva, World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme Kim, S. (2000). Southern Africa Swamped by Rains. Disaster News Network 00_africa-swamped.shtml [Geo-2-337] Mozambique National News Agency (2000). Government reports on flood damage and reconstruction. AIM Reports, Issue No. 194, 6 November Mozambique National News Agency [Geo-2-338] Mpofu, B. (2000). Assessment of Seed Requirements in Southern African Countries Ravaged by Floods and Drought 1999/2000. SADC Food Security Programme [Geo-2-339] UNDHA (1994). First African Sub-Regional Workshop on Natural Disaster Reduction, Gaborone, 28 November to 2 December Gaborone, United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs UNEP (1999). Western Indian Ocean Environment Outlook. Nairobi, United Nations Environment Programme UNHCR (2001a). Refugees and the Environment Caring for the Future. Geneva, UNHCR The UN Refugee Agency UNHCR (2001b). Refugee Children in Africa; Trends and Patterns in the Refugee Population in Africa Below the Age of 18 Years, Geneva, UNHCR The UN Refugee Agency World Bank (2000). World Bank Board Approves $72 million for Kenya. World Bank News Release No: 2001/105/AFR. World Bank nsf [Geo-2-340] World Bank (2001a). Upgrading Urban Communities, Version Spotlight on Alexandra, South Africa. Massachusetts Institute of Technology [Geo-2-341] World Bank (2001b). World Development Indicators Washington DC, World Bank _8.pdf [Geo-2-024]

11 ADP C 2001, CRED-O F DA 2002,DoACIndia 2002 I P C C 1998 UNEP 2001

12 Robins 1990 UNESCAP ADB 1995 Ali, A. (1999). Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Bangladesh. Climate Research, special 6, 12 (2/3), ADPC (2001). Asian Disaster Management News, Vol. 7, No. 1, January-March Bangkok, Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, Asian Institute of Technology CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters [Geo-2-330] DoAC India (2002). Super Cyclone Orissa. Natural Disaster Management, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, India [Geo-2-343] FAO (1998). Time to save the Aral Sea? Agriculture 21, magazine/9809/spot2.htm (26/09/2001) [Geo-2-342] Glantz, M. H. (1999). Currents of Change: EL Nino s Impact on Climate and Society. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press Huang, Z.G. (1999). Sea Level Changes in Guangdong and its Impacts. Guangzhou, China, Guangdong Science and Technology Press (in Chinese) IFRC (2001). World Disaster Report Geneva, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IPCC (1998). The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press Ji, Z.X., Jiang, Z.X and Zhu, J.W. (1993). Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Erosion in the Changjiang Delta Northern Jiangsu Coastal Plain. Acta Geographica Sinica, 48 (6), (in Chinese with English Abstract) Kelly, P.M. and Adger, W.N. (2000). Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Facilitating Adaptation. Climate Change, 47, Mirza, M.Q. and Ericksen, N.J. (1996). Impact of Water Control Projects on Fisheries Resources in Bangladesh. Environmental Management, 20(4), Robins, J. (1990). The World s Greatest Disasters. London, Hamlyn Salafsky, N. (1994). Drought in the Rainforest: Effects of the 1991 El Niño Southern Event on a Rural Economy in West Kailimantan, Indonesia. Climate Change, 27, Salafsky, N. (1998). Drought in the Rainforest, Part II: an Update Based on the 1994 ENSO Event. Climate Change, 39, UNEP (2001). Disasters. Our Planet [Geo-2-344] UNESCAP and ADB (1995). State of the Environment in Asia and the Pacific United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the Asian Development Bank, United Nations, New York UNESCAP and ADB (2000). State of the Environment in Asia and Pacific Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and Asian Development Bank. New York, United Nations [Geo ] World Bank (2001). World Development Indicators Washington DC, World Bank _8.pdf [Geo-2-024]

13 L o t h a r M a r t i n /4 Swiss Re E E A 2001a 8 0 % E E A m1 977 UWIN 1996

14 2 7 9 EEA 1999 EC E E A 1999 I TOPF 2000 E E A 2001b C E E E C 2001 Drogaris 1993,Rasmussen 1996 M&M Protection Consultants EEA 1999 II C E E M A R S S e v e s o

15 EEA E I A s E C E 1991 R E C 2000 BMTF (2000). Report of the International Task Force for Assessing the Baia Mare Accident. Brussels, European Commission Drogaris, G. (1993). Learning from major accidents involving dangerous substances. Safety Science, 16, EEA (1999). Environment in the European Union at the Turn of the Century. Environmental Assessment Report No. 2. Copenhagen, European Environment Agency EEA (2001a). Sustainable Water Use in Europe. Part 3: Extreme Hydrological Events: Floods and Droughts. Environmental Issues Report No. 21. Copenhagen, European Environment Agency EEA (2001b). Environmental Signals Environmental Assessment Report No. 8. Copenhagen, European Environment Agency EC (undated). Major Accident Reporting System of the European Commission. MARS [Geo-2-3??] EC (2001). Nuclear Safety in Central Europe and the New Independent States. Europa r_safety/intro/ [Geo-2-347] ECE (2001). Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Environment and Human Settlements Division. [Geo-2-352] EUMETSAT (2002). Winter Storm Lothar over Europe as seen in Meteosat Images html ICPR (2001). Action Plan on Flood Defense. The International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine. [Geo-2-348] ITOPF (2000). Historical Data. International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation M&M Protection Consultants (1997). Large Property Damage Losses in the Hydrocarbon- Chemical Industries A Thirty-year Review. AcuSafe etrochemicallosses0201.pdf [Geo-2-351] Rasmussen, K. (1996). The Experience with the Major Accident Reporting System from 1984 to CEC, EUR EN REC (2000). Europe Agreening : 2000 Report on the Status and Implementation of Multilateral Environmental Agreements in the European Region. Szentendre, Hungary, Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe and United Nations Environment Programme Swiss Re (2001). Property claims service. The Economist, 31 March 2001 UWIN (1996). Worldwide Paper on River and Wetland Development. Carbondale, Universities Water Information Network, Southern Illinois University

16 % % % 5. 2 %3. 2 % ( C R E D - O F D A / / %C E PA L PAHO %( E PA L 1999 ) G D P 1 2 % CEPAL C R E D - O F D A % G D P E l Guapo 6 0 % MoPD Venezuela I F R C CRED-OFDA 2002

17 % 3 000kg 1 50 L O m a i E s e q u i b o F i l á r t i g a = = = Agüero Wagner 2001 AMIGRANSA I x t o c 5 0 t Cutter Information Corp 2000 UNEP I D R N D PAHO 1998

18 2 8 3 AMIGRANSA (1997). Posición de AMIGRANSA ante el decreto de explotación de los bosques de Imataca. Press Release. Communications for a Sustainable Future, University of Colorado [Geo-2-353] CEPAL (1999). América Latina y el Caribe: El Impacto de los Desastres Naturales en el Desarrollo, Mexico City, Commisión Economica para America Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters [Geo-2-330] Cutter (2000). Oil Spill Intelligence Report. Cutter Information Corporation [Geo-2-354] Filártiga, J. and Agüero Wagner, L. (2001). Fiebre del oro y ecoapocalipsis en Venezuela. Apocalipsis Geo-Ambiental. El Imperialismo Ecológico zuela/body_venezuela.html [Geo-2-355] IFRC (2002). Venezuela: Floods. Situation Report No. 9. Geneva, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies MoPD Venezuela (2000). Venezuela Rises Above Destruction. Caracas, Ministry of Planning and Development, Venezuela PAHO (1998). Health in the Americas Edition. Scientific Publication No Washington DC, Pan American Health Organization Segnestam, L., Winograd, M. and Farrow, A. (2000). Developing Indicators: Lessons Learned from Central America. Washington DC, World Bank UNEP (1999). Caribbean Environment Outlook. Mexico City, United Nations Environment Programme, Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean UNICEF (2001). El Salvador Earthquakes. United Nations Children s Fund [Geo ] WHO (1999). El Niño and Health. Geneva, World Health Organization World Bank (2000). In Wake of Floods, Bank Urges Venezuela to Protect Poor. Press release 7 March [Geo-2-357]

21 Jardine 1994 Booth, W. (2000). Natural Forestry Plan Fights Fires With Fire. Washington Post, 24 Sep Bruce, J.P., Burton, I. and Egener, I.D.M. (1999). Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness in a Changing Climate. Ottawa, Minister of Public Works and Government Services Brun, S.E., Etkin, D., Law, D.G., Wallace, L., and White, R. (1997). Coping with Natural Hazards in Canada [Geo-2-358] CCFM (2000). National Forestry Database Program. Canadian Council of Forest Ministers [Geo-2-389] CEQ (2000). Managing the Impact of Wildfires on Communities and the Environment. A Report to the President In Response to the Wildfires of Council on Environmental Quality Changnon, S.A. and Easterling, D.R. (2000). US Policies Pertaining to Weather and Climate Extremes. Science 289, 5487, CIFFC (2001). Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Hectares by Year [Geo-2-359] COTF (2000). Exploring the Environment: Yellowstone Fires. Wheeling Jesuit University/NASA Classroom of the Future s1.html [Geo-2-360] Dalgish, A. (1998). The Mississippi Flooding of Easterling, D.R., Meehl, G.A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S.A., Karl, T.R. and Mearns, L.O. (2000). Climate Extremes: Observations, Modelling, and Impacts. Science 289, 5487, EC (1998a). Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin for Canada: Annual 1997 Temperature and Precipitation in Historical Perspective. Environment Canada, Atmospheric Environment Service smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/annual 97/ [Geo-2-361] EC (1998b). Canada and Freshwater: Experience and Practices. Ottawa, Environment Canada EC (1999a). The Canada Country Study (CCS), Volume VIII, National Cross-Cutting Issues Volume. Adaptation and Impacts Research Group [Geo-2-362] EC (1999b). Sustaining Canada s Forests: Timber Harvesting, National Environmental Indicator Series, SOE Bulletin No Ottawa, Environment Canada EC (2000). Environment Canada. Floods e_intro.htm [Geo-2-363] EC (2001). Environment Canada. Tracking Key Environmental Issues [Geo-2-364] FEMA (1999). About FEMA: History of the Federal Emergency Management Agency h t p :/ w w w. f e m a. g o v / a b o u t / h i s t o ry.htm [Geo ] Flannigan, M.D., Stocks, B.J., and Wotton, B.M. (2000). Climate Change and Forest Fires. The Science of the Total Environment, 262, Francis, D. and Hengeveld, H. (1998). Extreme Weather and Climate Change. Downsview, Ontario, Ministry of the Environment Climatechange/ccd_9801_e.pdf [Geo-2-366] Gorte, R.W. (1996). Congressional Research Ser vice Report for Congress: Forest Fires and Forest Health. The Committee for the National Institute for the Environment [Geo-2-367] H. John Heinz III Center (2001). Designing a Report on the State of the Nation s Ecosystem: Selected Measurements for Croplands, Forests, and Coasts and Oceans. The H. John Heinz III Center forscience, Economics and the Environment [Geo-2-368] IJC (2000). International Joint Commission Cautions that Efforts Must Remain Focused on Protecting Against Flood Damages. International Joint Commission [Geo-2-369] Jardine, K. (1994). The Carbon Bomb: Climate Change and the Fate of the Northern Boreal Forests. Greenpeace International [Geo-2-370] Morrison, P.H., Karl, J.W., Swope, L., Harma, K., Allen, T., Becwar, P. and Sabold, B. (2000). Assessment of Summer 2000 Wildfires. Pacific Biodiversity Institute [Geo-2-371] Mutch, R.W. (1997). Use Of Fire As A Management Tool On The National Forests: Statement of Robert W. Mutch Before the Committee on Resources, United States House of Representatives Oversight Hearing. Committee on Resources, US House of Representatives omm/sep30.97/mutch.htm [Geo-2-372] NIFC (2000). National Interagency Fire Center [Geo-2-373] NPS (2000). Wildland Fire. The National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park [Geo-2-374] O Meara, M. (1997). The Risks of Disrupting Climate. World Watch 10, 6, OCIPEP (2001). The Office of Critical Infrastructure Protection and Emergency Preparedness [Geo-2-375] Searchinger, T.D. and Tripp, J.T.B. (1993). Planning for Floods: Another Look at Rising Waters. Environmental Defense Fund Letter/1993/Nov/ m_floodplan.html Trenberth, K.E. (1999). The Extreme Weather Events of 1997 and Consequences: Nature and Implications of Environmental Change 5 (1) e.html [Geo-2-376] Turner, C. (2001). Fighting Fires: Blazing a Trail. CBC News [Geo-2-377] USGCRP (2000). Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. US Global Change Research Program [Geo-2-378] White House (2000). Vulnerabilities and Potential Consequences. White House Initiative on Global Climate Change lities.html

22 2 8 7 ACSAD % AOAD % IPCC W M O U N E P FAO % 4 0 % FA O 1999 FAO /WFP t % 2 8 %40% % WFP 2001 FAO 1999

23 Le Houérou 1993 Parton UNCCD % A l - H a r m i N o w r u z3 L L L L 1 5 L 6 00Bennett 1995 U N E P % 6 %US DoD 2000

24 U N RWA 2002 ACSAD (1997). Water Resources and their Utilization in the Arab World. 2nd Water Resources Seminar, March 8 10, Kuwait Al-Harmi, L. (1998). Sources of Oil Pollution in Kuwait and Their Inputs in the Marine Environment. EES-125 Final Report. Kuwait, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research AOAD (1995). Study on Deterioration of Rangelands and Proposed Development Projects (in Arabic). Khartoum, Arab Organizaton for Agricultural Development Bennett, M. (1995). The Gulf War. Database for Use in Schools ter/oil.gulf.war.html [Geo-1-002] Cynthia, H.A., Gilbert, P.M., Al-Sarawi, M.A., Faraj, M., Behbehani, M. and Husain, M. (2001). First record of a fish-killing Gymnodinium sp. bloom in Kuwait Bay, Arabian Sea: chronology and potential causes. Marine Ecology Progress Series 214, FAO (1999). Special Report: Drought Causes Extensive Crop Damage in the Near East Raising Concerns for Food Supply Difficulties in Some Parts s/english/alertes/1999/srnea997.htm [Geo-2-379] IPPC (1996). Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, United States Le Houérou, A. N. (1993). Vegetation and landuse in the Mediterranean Basin by the year 2050: a prospective study. In Jeftic, L., Milliman, J.D. and Sestini, G. (eds.). Climatic Change and the Mediterranean. London, Edward Arnold Oil Spill Intelligence Report (2002). Oil spills involving more than 10 million gallons [Geo-2-380] Pa rt o n, W.J., Scurlock, J.M.O., Ojima, D.S., Gilmanov, T.G., Scholes, R.J., Schimel, D.S., Kirchner, T., Menaut, J.-C., Seastedt, T., Moya, E.G., Kamnalrut, A. and Kinyamario, J.I. (1993). Observations and modeling of biomass and soils organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide. G l o b a l Geochemical Cycles 7, 4, UNCCD (2001). Sub-Regional Action Programme (SRAP) to Combat Desertification and Drought in West Asia subregional/westasia/westasia.php [Geo-2-381] UNEP (1991). A Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict on Terrestrial Ecosystems: Par t II - the State of Kuwait. Manama, Bahrain, UNEP Regional Office for West Asia UNRWA (2002). United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East [Geo-2-383] US DoD (2000). Oil Well Fires Environmental Exposure Report. The Department of Defense. [Geo-2-382] WFP (2001). Estimated Food Needs and Shortfalls for WFP Operations and Projects. Rome, World Food Programme WMO and UNEP (1994). The Global Climate System Review. Climate System Monitoring June 1991 November Geneva, World Meteorological Organization

25 m Kriner 2001a b I P C C 2001 a I P C C 2001 b5 8 % km 1998 Dendroctonus rufipennis 1 0 E p i rr i t a a u t u m n a t a CAFF 2001 EPPR U s i n s k L L NOAA 2001 AMAP K o m s o m o l e t s A M A P 1997

26 A M A P 1997 O TA 1995 AMAP 1997 E P P RPA M E 1997 E P P R PA M E 2001I U C N I U C N E&P Forum 1993 AMAP (1997). Arctic Pollution Issues: a State of the Arctic Environment Report. Oslo, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Arctic Council (2001). Arctic Council Activities [Geo ] CAFF (2001). Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status and Conservation. Helsinki, Arctic Council Programme for the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna EPPR (1997). Environmental Risk Analysis of Arctic Activities. Risk Analysis Report No. 2. The Emergency Prevention Preparedness and Response Working Group of the Arctic Council [Geo-2-385] Interagency Commission (1998). The Second National Communication to the UNFCCC. Moscow, Interagency Commission of the Russian Federation on Climate Change Problems IPCC (2001a). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, United States, Cambridge University Press IPCC (2001b). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, United States, Cambridge University Press IUCN with E&P Forum (1993). Oil and Gas Exploitation in Arctic and Subarctic Onshore Regions. Gland, Switzerland, and Cambridge, United Kingdom, World Conservation Union with the Oil Industry Exploration and Production Forum Kriner, S. (2001a). Winter Chills Bring Spring Floods to Siberia. American Red Cross, 17 May ia.html [Geo-2-386] Kriner, S. (2001b). Flood Disaster Averted Again in Siberian City. American Red Cross, 23 May ia.html [Geo-2-387] NOAA (2001). The Exxon Valdez Oil Spill. Office of Response and Restoration, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ght.html [Geo-2-388] Oil Spill Intelligence Report (2002). Oil spills involving more than 10 million gallons [Geo-2-380] OTA (1995). Nuclear Wastes in the Arctic: An Analysis of Arctic and Other Regional Impacts from Soviet Nuclear Contamination. Washington DC, US Office of Technology Assessment

27 km %

Microsoft PowerPoint - EO17+booklet-+final print+CN.pptx

Microsoft PowerPoint - EO17+booklet-+final print+CN.pptx bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2017 BP 1 4 9 23 45 46 50 54 58 63 2 70 72 76 82 86 88 90 92 95 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995