Diapositiva 1

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Diapositiva 1"

匹钟劳
7 years ago
Views:

1 生物技术审批的延迟对大豆生产供应和需求的全球性影响 Global Implications of Biotechnology Approval Delays to Soy Production, Supply & Demand 劳埃德 C. 戴毅美洲国家间农业合作研究学会副总干事长 Lloyd C. Day Deputy Director General Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) International Soy Growers Alliance Forum on Global Implications of Biotechnology Approval Delays to Soy Production, Supply & Demand China World Hotel, Beijing (China), April 21, 2015

2 IICA 是个什么机构? What is IICA? 美洲国与国体系中从事农业和农村福利促进工作的专业机构 The specialized agency of the Inter-American System for the promotion of agriculture and rural well-being. 由美国农业部亨利华莱士部长发起, 成立于 1942 年 Founded in 1942 by USDA Secretary Henry Wallace 有 34 个成员国 34 Member States 着重致力于 :Strategic emphasis: 技术和创新 Technology and innovation 农业健康和食品安全 Agricultural health and food safety 贸易 Trade 农村发展 Rural development 自然资源 Natural resources 2

3 IICA 做哪些工作? What does IICA do? 有组织地加强 Institutional strengthening 公共政策的发展和深化 Development and strengthening of public policies 人类才智的能力建设和发展 Capacity building and development of human talent 利益攸关各方的共识建设和协调 Consensus building and coordination of stakeholders 项目管理 Project management 知识的管理和使用 Management and use of knowledge 3

4 IICA 做哪些工作? What does IICA do? 横向合作 Horizontal cooperation 协调各成员国在国际论坛中的立场 Coordination of Member States for international fora 卡塔赫纳生物安全议定书食品法典委员会 Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, Codex Alimentarius 联合国气候变化框架公约国际植物保护协定 UNFCCC, IPPC 世贸组织卫生和植物卫生委员会世界粮农组织世界粮食计划署国际农业发展基金北美植物保护组织世界动物卫生组织和美洲国家组织 WTO SPS Committee, FAO, WFP, IFAD, NAPPO, OIE, OAS 4

区域性生物安全倡议 Biosafety Regional Initiatives NABI (Canada, EEUU, Mexico) (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Dominican Republic) CARICOM

5 区域性生物安全倡议 Biosafety Regional Initiatives NABI (Canada, EEUU, Mexico) (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Dominican Republic) CARICOM ANDEAN R. (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú, Venezuela) G5-CAS (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay) 5

6 阿根廷巴西和乌拉圭种植的基因改良大豆和传统大豆的比较研究内容 Content 阿根廷巴西巴拉圭和乌拉圭的大豆种植发展情况 Evolution of soybean cultivation in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay 大豆种植的技术方案 ( 直接播种除草剂基因改良大豆 ) Technology package for soybean cultivation (Direct Seeding, herbicides, genetically modified (GM) soybean) 基因改良大豆法规的重要性 Importance of regulation for GM soybean 环境比较分析 Comparative environmental analysis 成本分析 : 转基因与常规大豆种植的生产和成本的变化情况 Cost analysis: Comparison of the evolution of production and the costs of transgenic and conventional soybean cultivation 电子版本网址链接 Electronically available in: icaciones_tei/b3062i.pdf 6

7 生物安全培训 Biosafety Training IICA 与密苏里大学生物技术法规研修课程 (MU-BRIC) 2014 年 11 月 IICA & Missouri University - Biotechnology Regulation Immersion Course (MU-BRIC)- Nov IICA 美国大使馆和农业生物技术经济学与管理中心 Economics and Management of Agro-biotechnology Center (EMAC), US Embassy, IICA 9 个国家的 40 位学员 40 participants from 9 countries 7

8 白皮书介绍 Paper Presentation 拖延大豆生物技术创新的潜在经济影响 The Potential Economic Impacts of Delayed Biotech Innovation in Soybeans Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, Kenneth A. Zahringer & John Kruse 哥伦比亚密苏里大学农业及应用经济学系农业生物技术经济学与管理中心 (EMAC) Economics and Management of Agrobiotechnology Center (EMAC) Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia 8

9 基因改良作物和法规程序 GM crops and regulatory process 基因改良作物必须经过法规审批以保证它们对环境和食品的安全性 GM crops must undergo regulatory approval to ensure their environmental and food safety. 法规程序延长了基因改良作物推向市场所需的时间 Regulatory process lengthens the time required to bring GM crops to market. 因新品种审批延迟而对贸易带来的干扰或技术创新的耽搁将会妨碍粮食安全的进程 Trade disruptions or delays in innovation due to delayed approval of new varieties could impede progress in food security. 过多的法规会总体上会对创新的过程产生抑制作用 Excessive regulation may exert an overall dampening effect on the innovation process. 9

10 基因作物的机会成本 Opportunity costs of GM crops 有助于改善粮食安全和生活水平 Contribute to improving food security and standard of living. 以较低的成本来提高产量, 结果, 基因作物增加了生产者的收入, 降低了消费者的开支 Increase production at lower cost, in consequence GM crops increase producer income and low consumer cost. 第二代作物通过提高营养品质让消费者受益 Second generation crops benefit consumers through higher nutritional quality. 耐除草剂的基因改良作物有助于优化劳动力和机器设备的使用, 这表明土壤侵蚀更少, 石油燃料的消费更少 Herbicide tolerant GM crops contribute to optimize labor and machinery, which implies lower soil erosion and fossil fuel consumption. 10

11 白皮书的焦点 Paper s Focus 评估先前因拖延使用基因改良大豆品种对世界市场的经济益处 To estimate the foregone economic benefits to world markets because of the delayed adoption of new GM soybean varieties. 分析集中在新的耐除草剂大豆品种 Analysis focuses on new herbicide tolerant (HT) soybean varieties 结构 Structure: 第一代基因改良大豆带来的益处 Benefits resulted from first generation of GM soybean 审批链上的新品种 New varieties in the pipeline 不同步的法规审批问题 Issue of asynchronous regulatory approvals 模式和各种预设条件的概念基础 Conceptual basis for a model and scenarios 11

12 第一代基因改良大豆的益处 Benefits of first generation GM soybean 大豆是世界市场上交易的主要农产品之一 Soybean is one if the major agricultural commodities traded on world markets. 使用免耕基因改良抗农达 (RR) 大豆, 以及农达除草剂 ( 草甘膦 ) 改变了全球的大豆生产 Use of no-tillage, GM Roundup Ready (RR) soybean, and herbicide Roundup TM (glyphosate) changed soybean production world-wide. 环境影响 Environmental impact: 不同品种的剧毒除草剂的使用量减少 Less number of different highly toxic herbicides were used. 石油燃料和劳力的需要量减少 Less fossil fuel and labor was required. 12

第一代基因改良大豆的益处 Benefits of first generation GM soybean 大豆中 RR 技术的经济影响 Economic impact of RR technology in soybean: 与如果没有 RR 技术的大豆价格相比, 要降低 2-5% Soybean prices are 2-5% lower than they would have been

13 第一代基因改良大豆的益处 Benefits of first generation GM soybean 大豆中 RR 技术的经济影响 Economic impact of RR technology in soybean: 与如果没有 RR 技术的大豆价格相比, 要降低 2-5% Soybean prices are 2-5% lower than they would have been in the absence of RR technology. RR 技术创新产生了 500 亿美元的盈利 ( ), 其中 85% 转给了生产者和消费者, 4% 给了技术创新企业 RR innovation generated a surplus of $50 billion ( ), 85% went to producers and consumers, 4% to innovators. 国家 Country 节省 ($/ 公顷, 年 ) Saving $/ha. year) 阿根廷 Argentina 22.7 巴西 Brazil 32.4 美国 US

14 审批链中的大豆基因改良品种 GM pipeline in soybean 性状种类 Type of Trait 抗多种除草剂 Multiple Herbicide Resistance (weed resistance to glyphosate is a significant problem, 44% in USA) 健康油品 Healthy Oils 抗病 Disease Resistance 近期获批品种 Recently Approved Dow Enlist TM glufosinate and 2,4-D Dow Enlist TM E3 glyphosate, glufosinate, and 2,4-D Bayer Balance TM glyphosate and isoxaflutole Monsanto Genuity RR2 Xtend glyphosate and dicamba* Bayer and Syngenta mesotrione and glufosinate DuPont/Pioneer Plenish TM 审批链中的品种 In the Pipeline Bayer and Syngenta mesotrione, glufosinate, and isoxaflutole Bayer and Syngenta glyphosate, glufosinate, and HPPD Monsanto Vistive Gold TM Monsanto SDA Omega-3 BASF fungal resistance Bayer nematode resistance DuPont Asian soybean rust, nematode resistance 抗虫 Insect Resistance *Approved in EU Monsanto Intacta TM RR2 Pro Bt and glyphosate resistance Syngenta nematode resistance Syngenta Bt DuPont resistance to Hemiptera and Lepidoptera 14

15 审批链中的大豆基因改良品种 GM pipeline in soybean 性状 TRAITS: 病虫害及杂草控制 Pests, diseases and weeds control 增加单产 Increase yield 氮的使用 N use 抗应激 Stress tolerance 脂肪成分 Oil composition Increase yield Increase yield Increase oil and major feed efficiency 早先开发的品种 EARLY DEVELOPMENT 2 nd generation (Monsanto, BASF) (Poioneer/DuPont) (Pioneer/Dupont) 开发的高级品种 ( 未来 3-5 年 ) ADVANCED DEVELOPMENT (next 3-5 years) Increase yield Plenish TM Omega-3 enrichment Vistive Gold 1 st generation (Monsanto, BASF) High oleic acid content (Pioneer/Dupont) (Monsanto/Solae) Low saturated oil content, zero trans fatty acids (Monsanto) 15

16 法规审批 Regulatory Approval 审批决定由各国单独做出, 成本高昂 ( 约 3,500 万美元 ), 获得批准会耗费一些时间 ( 约 100 个月 ) (McDougall,2011) Approval decisions are made separately in the countries, are costly (around $35 million) and can take some time to secure (around 100 months). (McDougall, 2011) 审批延迟放缓了全球市场新产品引进的速度, 影响了生物技术的创新 Delays slow down new product introductions in the global market and affect biotech innovations. 法规要求每个国家都有差异 Regulatory requirements vary from country to country. 16

17 法规审批 Regulatory Approval 缓慢的或不同步的国家审批, 再加上对未获批准品种的令容许度政策, 导致国际贸易的中断, 价格提高 Slower or asynchronous national approvals combined with a zero-tolerance policy for unapproved events could cause international trade disruptions and price increases 年 :Herculex 玉米 ( 获得美国批准但未或得欧盟批准 ), 影响金额为 16 亿欧元 2007: Herculex maize (approved in US but not in EU), impact 1.6 billion 2009 年 :MON88017 大豆 ( 在欧盟出现贸易问题 ) 2009: MON88017 soybean (in EU) 2014 年 :MIR162 玉米 (2010 年获得美国批准, 但 2014 年年底才获得中国批准 ) 2014: MIR 162 maize (approved in US in 2010 but in China up to 2014) 17

18 模型结构和设想 Model structure and scenarios 期初库存 t = 期末库存 t-1 Beginning Stocks t = Ending Stocks t-1 产量 = 收获面积 * 单产 Production = Harvested Area * Yield 产量 = 压榨量 * 压榨产出率 Production = Crush * Crushing Yield 总供应量 = 期初库存 + 产量 + 进口量 Total Supply = Beginning Stocks + Production + Imports 总需求量 = 压榨量 + 食品用量 + 其它用量 + 出口量 + 期末库存 Total Demand = Crush + Food Use + Other Use + Exports + Ending Stocks 总需求量 = 食品用量 + 饲料用量 + 工业用量 + 期末库存 Total Demand = Food Use + Feed Use + Industrial Use + Ending Stocks 国内用量 = 压榨量 + 食品用量 + 其它用量 + 期末库存 Domestic Use = Crush + Food Use + Other Use + Ending Stocks 国内用量 = 食品用量 + 饲料用量 + 工业用量 + 期末库存 Domestic Use = Food Use + Feed Use + Industrial Use + Ending Stocks ΔPS R,S = P 0 Q 0 (K Z) ( Zε s ) ΔPS R,O = P 0 Q 0 Z ( Zε o ) ( 油籽油粕和油脂 ) (Oilseeds, Meals, Oils) 18 (1) ( 油籽 Oilseeds) (2) ( 油粕油脂 ) (Meals, Oils) ( 油籽油粕和油脂 ) (Oilseeds, Meals, Oils) (3) (4) ( 油籽 Oilseeds) (5) ( 油粕油脂 ) (Meals, Oils) (6) ( 油籽 Oilseeds) (7) ( 油粕油脂 ) (Meals, Oils) ΔCS R,O = (P 0 P 1 )C (C 1 C 0 ) (P 0 P 1 ) (11) (8) (9) (10)

19 模型结构和设想 Model structure and scenarios 图一产量变化阿根廷巴西和美国千公吨 19

20 模型结构和设想 Model structure and scenarios 图二油籽价格变化大豆菜籽葵花籽棕榈 20

21 模型结构和设想 Model structure and scenarios 图三大豆价格在正常应用流程和缓慢应用流程时对应基线价格的变化正常应用流程缓慢应用流程 21

22 年生产者和消费者得益于 HT 技术应用的收益变化 Change in Producer and Consumer Surplus from Adoption of HT Technologies (in $million) SCENARIO 1A SCENARIO 1B SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 PS CS PS CS PS CS PS CS 美国 United States 9,749 2,885 5,356 1,271 7, ,470 (3,775) 阿根廷 Argentina 4,567 2,899 2,661 1,293 4, ,563 (3,364) 巴西 Brazil 10,894 2,683 6,342 1,205 8, ,455 (3,070) 欧盟 28 国 EU 28 (81) 721 (36) (9) 106 (1,007) 乌克兰 Ukraine (245) 106 (111) 47 (12) (129) 中国 China (629) 5,515 (277) 2,472 (4) (6,436) 日本 Japan (9) 161 (4) 70 0 (2) 13 (226) 印度 India (698) 690 (312) 309 (24) (803) 印尼 Indonesia (30) 165 (13) (204) 泰国 Thailand (3) 104 (1) 46 0 (1) 4 (145) 越南 Vietnam (14) 100 (6) 44 (1) 0 14 (135) 埃及 Egypt (1) 101 (0) 44 0 (1) 1 (138) 世界 World 22,066 17,598 12,959 7,837 20, ,325 (21,387) 22

23 最后的一些考虑 Final Considerations 基于过去十年观察到的事实, 因法规审批延迟和主要进口国家不同步的审批做法, 我们认为, 抗除草剂大豆新品种的上市时间推迟了三年 Based on facts observed in the last decade, new herbicide tolerant soybean varieties have been assumed to enter the market three years later due to regulatory delays and asynchronicities across key importing countries. 如果大豆新品种能及时获得批准并商业化, 引入种植的经济收益将是巨大的 : 十年间可达 400 亿美元, 市场所有参与者均可获益 If new soybeans are approved and commercialized in a timely fashion, economic benefits from their adoption will be large: $40 billion for a 10-year period, and all market participants will benefit. 23

24 最后的一些考虑 Final Considerations 若新的性状进入市场的时间有所延迟, 所有的益处将会明显地减少 : If new traits are delayed in reaching the market, benefits will be clearly reduced: 延迟的经济意义会影响研究开发技术引进的进度, 这回极大地减少全球社会福利, 并对粮食安全目前所取得的进步带来挑战 Economic implications of delays will affect research, development, technology introduction and adoption, which could greatly diminish the global social welfare, and to challenge current advances in food security. 法规审批的极大延迟而导致不同步审批的进度, 不仅会影响农民和种子开发企业, 而且会妨碍消费者获取足够的营养 Significant regulatory delays resulting in asynchronous approvals can not only impact farmers and seed developers, but also restrict consumer access to adequate nutrition. 24

25 IICA 总部联络方式 IICA Headquarters 劳埃德戴毅 Lloyd Day 25

标题

全球粮食价格飙升 : 根源影响及对策张明摘要 : 本文分析了 2006 ~ 2008 年全球粮食价格上涨的原因影响及对策导致本轮粮价上涨的原因是多方面的, 本文运用供给与需求计价货币市场结构的理论框架进行了总结与剖析鉴于导致本