二一年三月. March 2010 環球投資分析 Global Investment Update 環球市場展望美國 : 退市策略及經濟發展左右短期走勢歐洲 : 受希臘財政危機拖累日本 : 內需及通縮問題未見起色亞洲 : 前景繼續優於其他市場投資專題中國市場策略外匯市場速遞歐元英鎊及澳元回顧

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1 二一年三月. March 2010 環球投資分析 Global Investment Update 環球市場展望美國 : 退市策略及經濟發展左右短期走勢歐洲 : 受希臘財政危機拖累日本 : 內需及通縮問題未見起色亞洲 : 前景繼續優於其他市場投資專題中國市場策略外匯市場速遞歐元英鎊及澳元回顧及展望

2 環球市場展望 Global Market Outlook 美國由於企業業績較預期為佳, 加上經濟數據強勁, 投資者對美國經濟保持穩定增長感到樂觀, 帶動美股於 2 月份反彈 2 月 18 日, 聯儲局將貼現率上調 0.25% 至 0.75%, 向退出超寬鬆貨幣政策踏出第一步然而, 考慮到美國的通脹壓力仍低企而經濟尚處於復甦初期, 在刺激經濟措施一旦撤出時, 當地經濟仍然需要低息環境來刺激消費及投資, 因此市場普遍預期美國利率將於一段長時間維持在極低水平退市時間表及就業市場等各方面的經濟發展將是左右美股短期走勢的關鍵 US As inflationary pressure remains subdued, and the economy is still in a nascent recovery that requires low interest rates environment to stimulate consumption and investment once the stimulus programs begin to be unwound, market generally believes that interest rates will stay at exceptionally low levels for an extended period. The schedule of the stimulus measure withdrawal and the development on different economic aspects, such as the labor market, will hold the key for the market direction in the near term. 歐洲由於企業業績超出市場預期, 尤其是銀行業的業績表現甚佳, 歐洲股市扭轉 1 月份的跌勢, 於 2 月初反彈然而, 希臘的財政狀況再度受到關注, 拖累歐洲股市在 2 月底下跌雖然經濟和企業盈利的消息普遍向好, 但希臘政府的財政危機惡化, 令股市蒙上陰影希臘葡萄牙和西班牙等國家被迫採取緊縮措施來縮減預算赤字, 但投資者質疑這些措施在嚴峻的政治壓力下的可行性, 以及其對區內經濟帶來的負面影響我們預期在主權信用危機好轉之前, 歐洲股市的表現將遜於其他主要市場 Europe Investors are jittery about the feasibility of Greece and other countries, such as Portugal and Spain, to implement austerity measures under severe political pressure to narrow their budget gaps, as well as the adverse impact of these measures on the regional economy. We expect the European bourses to underperform other major markets until positive development on the sovereign credit crisis is seen. 日本 2 月份日本股市起伏不定受亞洲區的強勁需求刺激, 日本出口持續回升 ; 但內部需求仍然低迷, 即使政府於去年 12 月推出一系列經濟刺激措施及放鬆銀根, 亦無補於事核心消費物價指數亦連續第 11 個月按年下跌在揮之不去的通縮壓力下, 市場更加憂慮失業率上升及薪金下調將會繼續壓抑家庭消費隨著亞洲主要國家的政府及央行開始撤出其經濟刺激措施, 甚至收緊銀根, 預計日本出口的增長勢頭將於短期內放緩此外, 市場對日本政府的巨額財赤憂慮日增, 亦成為影響市場前景的另一負面因素我們仍對日本股市抱審慎態度 Japan Persistent deflationary pressure reinforces worries that unemployment and falling wages will continue to discourage household spending. In the near term, export growth momentum is expected to weaken as major Asian governments and central banks have begun stimulus package withdrawal and even monetary tightening. Besides, mounting concern over huge fiscal deficits is another negative to the market outlook. 2 環球投資分析資料來源 Sources: Reuters

投資專題 Investment Features 亞洲歐美股市反彈, 投資者的樂觀情緒升溫 ; 但是中國突然收緊銀根, 抵銷了前者的利好影響, 令 2 月份亞洲股市急劇波動自年初以來, 中國人民銀行兩度上調存款準備金率, 市場預計馬來西亞韓國及印度的央行很快也會收緊銀根, 以抑制通脹及防止經濟過熱雖然陸續推出的緊縮措施會在短期內打擊市場情緒, 但卻有助確保區內經濟持續增長此外,

3 投資專題 Investment Features 亞洲歐美股市反彈, 投資者的樂觀情緒升溫 ; 但是中國突然收緊銀根, 抵銷了前者的利好影響, 令 2 月份亞洲股市急劇波動自年初以來, 中國人民銀行兩度上調存款準備金率, 市場預計馬來西亞韓國及印度的央行很快也會收緊銀根, 以抑制通脹及防止經濟過熱雖然陸續推出的緊縮措施會在短期內打擊市場情緒, 但卻有助確保區內經濟持續增長此外, 雖然近期希臘的金融危機可能削弱投資者涉足高風險資產的意欲並導致區內資金外流, 但全球經濟不斷好轉將利好亞洲股市我們依然看好亞洲股市的前景 Asia Despite additional tightening measures will undermine the short-term market sentiment, such measures help ensure the economic growth in the region is on a sustainable path. Besides, continued improvement in the global economy will be supportive to the Asian equities, though recent financial crisis in Greece may dash investors appetite on risky assets and trigger fund outflow from the region. We remain our positive on the outlook of the Asian equity markets. 中國市場策略自中國當局於年初開始收緊銀根以來, 中國股市的表現落後於其他亞洲市場短期內, 政策風險將仍然左右市場氣氛及加劇股市波動投資者可留意具備增長前景及受惠於政府利好政策的行業相關股份收緊政策的隱憂鑑於經濟數據強勁及資產價格節節上升, 中國當局已收緊貨幣政策中國人民銀行分別於 1 月 12 日及 2 月 12 日宣布調高法定儲備金率各 50 點子中國銀行業監督管理委員會亦要求銀行密切監管本身的放貸情況, 以控制過量資金流入投機項目上然而, 當局似乎並非採取嚴厲的緊縮措施, 而是維持相對寬鬆的貨幣政策, 以確保市場有足夠的流動性, 令經濟保持健康及持續的發展步伐消費及投資 - 主要增長動力鑒於全球經濟的復甦步伐溫和, 今年出口淨額對中國經濟增長的貢獻預期只會不過不失然而, 雖然中國政府已開始收回刺激方案, 但基建開支將繼續在經濟增長中佔有重要一環此外, 工資上升家庭負債低企及政府的政策支持, 均會刺激內部消費增長政府之前公布的一號文件包含廣泛措施, 以透過增加補貼及財政開支來推動農村消費, 突顯了政府政策對刺激內部消費增長的重要性估值處於歷史平均水平從估值角度來看, 經濟及盈利增長強勁的因素已大致上被市場消化, 相信難以為市場帶來驚喜但另一方面, 股市在近期回落後, 目前的估值已接近歷史平均水平, 故下跌風險似乎亦同樣有限行業之選電訊股之基本因素穩健, 而且估值水平吸引受政策風險影響, 電訊股去年已出現超賣, 但市場現已充分消化該等風險, 故屬於防守性之選另外, 消費股及醫療股亦將繼續受惠於政府的利好政策 China s Market Strategy In the near term, policy risks will still dominate market sentiment and fuel volatility to the equity markets. Investors shall focus on selected sectors with bright growth prospects and support from government policies. Tightening Concerns Brisk economic figures and booming asset prices have triggered the China s authorities to tighten monetary policies. Nevertheless, instead of taking dramatic tightening steps, the authorities are likely to maintain a relatively loose monetary stance to ensure adequate market liquidity for a healthy and sustainable pace of economic growth. Consumption and Investment - Dominant Growth Drivers Infrastructure spending will continue to account for a large share of economic growth despite the government have begun to scale back stimulus programs. In addition, domestic consumption will be bolstered by higher wages, low household debt and supportive government policies. Valuations at historical average From a valuation perspective, brisk economic and earnings growth have largely been discounted and are unlikely to surprise the market on the upside. On the other hand, the downside of the equity markets seems limited either as current valuations are around the historical average following the recent setback. Sector Picks The telecom counters are the defensive plays with solid fundamentals and compelling valuations. Besides, consumption and healthcare sectors will also continue to benefit from supportive government policies. 3 G l o b a l I n v e s t m e n t U p d a t e

基金指南 Mutual Funds Guide 環球債券股票及均衡基金 Global Bond, Equity & Balanced Funds 貨幣美元百萬 1 年 3 年 5 年 3 年 3 年整體基金名稱 / 類別 Fund Name/ Sector Currency million 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 3 Years Overall

4 基金指南 Mutual Funds Guide 環球債券股票及均衡基金 Global Bond, Equity & Balanced Funds 貨幣美元百萬 1 年 3 年 5 年 3 年 3 年整體基金名稱 / 類別 Fund Name/ Sector Currency million 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 3 Years Overall 環球債券 Global Bond 鄧普頓環球總收益基金 Templeton Global Total Return $1, Leader Leader 天達環球策略基金 - 環球策略收益基金 $ Leader Investec GSF Global Strategic Income 鄧普頓環球債券基金 Templeton Global Bond $5, Leader Leader $ 環球高息債券 Global High Yield Bond 聯博 - 環球高收益基金 $10, Leader 4 AllianceBernstein - Global High Yield Portfolio 景順策略債券基金 Invesco Global High Income $ $1, 環球股票 Global Equity 匯豐增長管理基金 HSBC Managed Growth Fund HKD $ Leader Leader 貝萊德全球基金 - 環球特別時機基金 $ Leader Leader BGF Global Opportunities Fund $ 環球股票小型公司 Global Equity Smaller Companies 景順環球企業基金 Invesco Global Small Cap Equity $ 貝萊德全球基金 - 環球小型企業基金 BGF Global SmallCap Fund $ Leader Leader $ 環球均衡 Global Balanced 首域亞洲鐵橋基金 First State Asian Bridge $ 德盛東方入息基金 Allianz RCM Oriental Income $ 貝萊德全球基金 - 環球資產配置基金 BGF Global Allocation Fund $6, Leader Leader $ 地區債券基金 Reg 貨幣基金名稱 / 類別 Fund Name/ Sector Currency 美元債券 Bond 聯博 - 美元收益基金 AllianceBernstein - American Income Portfolio PIMCO 總回報債券基金 PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond 美元高息債券 High Yield Bond 富達基金 - 美元高收益基金 Fidelity Funds - US High Yield 富蘭克林高息基金 Franklin High Yield 歐洲債券 European Bond 聯博 - 歐洲收益基金 AllianceBernstein - European Income Portfolio 景順歐洲債券基金 Invesco European Bond 亞太債券 Asia Pacific Bond 鄧普頓亞洲債券基 Templeton Asian Bond 貝萊德全球基金 - 亞洲老虎債券基金 BGF Asian Tiger Bond Fund 新興市場債券 Emerging Market Bond 鄧普頓新興市場債券基金 Templeton Emerging Markets Bond 匯豐環球投資基金 - 新興市場債券基金 HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond 4 環球投資分析地區股票基金 Regional Equity Funds 貨幣美元百萬 1 年 3 年 5 年 3 年 3 年整體基金名稱 / 類別 Fund Name/ Sector Currency million 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 3 Years Overall 歐洲股票 European Equity 貝萊德全球基金 - 歐洲基金 BGF European Fund $2, Leader Leader 貝萊德全球基金 - 歐洲增長型基金 BGF European Growth Fund $ Leader Leader 富達基金 - 歐洲動力增長基金 $ Leader Fidelity Funds - European Dynamic Growth $ 歐洲股票小型公司 European Equity Smaller Companies 景順歐洲大陸企業基金 $ Invesco Continental European Small Cap Equity 霸菱歐洲精選基金 Baring Europe Select $ Leader Leader $ 亞太股票 Asia Pacific Equity 景順太平洋基金 Invesco Pacific Equity $ Leader 4 JF 太平洋證券基金 JF Pacific Securities Fund $ Leader Leader $ 亞太股票 ( 不包括日本 ) Asia Pacific Equity (Excl. Japan) 鄧普頓亞洲增長基金 Templeton Asian Growth $1, Leader Leader 富達基金 - 東協基金 Fidelity Funds - ASEAN $ 惠理高息股票基金 Value Partners High-Dividend Stocks Fund $ Leader Leader $ 亞太股票小型公司 Asia Pacific Equity Smaller Companies 匯豐環球投資基金 - 亞洲小型公司股票基金 ( 日本除外 ) $ Leader Leader HSBC GIF Asia ex Japan Equity Smaller Companies 德盛小龍基金 Allianz RCM Little Dragons $ $ 環球新興市場股票 Global Emerging Market Equity 貝萊德全球基金 - 新興市場基金 BGF Emerging Markets Fund $ 霸菱全球新興市場基金 Baring Global Emerging Markets $1, Leader Leader $ 資料來源 :Lipper, 截至 2010 年 2 月 26 日, 以期內每股買入價折合美元計算, 收益再作投資 Sources: Lipper, as of 2/26/2010, percentage return, bid to bid, gross income reinvested. 於同一組別中, 一年最佳表現基金 The best one year performance fund, relative to peer. 主題及對沖基金 Them 貨幣基金名稱 / 類別 Fund Name/ Sector Currency 資訊科技 Information Technology 富達基金 - 科技基金 Fidelity Funds - Global Technology JF 太平洋科技基金 JF Pacific Technology Fund 天然資源 Natural Resources 摩根富林明環球天然資源基金 JPM Global Natural Resources Fund 貝萊德全球基金 - 世界礦業基金 BGF World Mining Fund 健康護理 Healthcare 富達基金 - 環球健康護理基金 Fidelity Funds - Global Health Care 貝萊德全球基金 - 世界健康科學基金 BGF World Healthscience Fund 金融服務 Financial Services 貝萊德全球基金 - 世界金融基金 BGF World Financials Fund 富達基金 - 環球金融服務基金 Fidelity Funds - Global Financial Services 其他 Others 天達環球策略基金 - 環球黃金 Investec GSF Global Gold 貝萊德全球基金 - 世界黃金基金 BGF World Gold Fund No Ranking 對沖及管理期貨基金 Hedge and Managed Futures Man AHL Diversified Futures Ltd No Ranking 風險 : 低度 Risk Level: Low

5 ional Bond Funds 美元百萬 1 年 3 年 5 年 3 年 3 年整體 million 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 3 Years Overall $4, Leader $3, Leader Leader $ $1, Leader Leader $1, $ $ $ $ $ Leader Leader $ $ $1, Leader Leader $ $ e & Hedge Funds 美元百萬 1 年 3 年 5 年 3 年 3 年整體 million 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 3 Years Overall $ $ Leader Leader $ $ $11, Leader Leader $ $ $ Leader Leader $ $ $ Leader $ $ Leader $5, $1, 風險 : 中度 Risk Level: Medium 風險 : 高度 Risk Level: High 單一國家基金 Single Country Funds 貨幣美元百萬 1 年 3 年 5 年 3 年 3 年整體基金名稱 / 類別 Fund Name/ Sector Currency million 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 3 Years Overall 美國股票 American Equity 天達環球策略基金 - 美國股票基金 Investec GSF American Equity $ 富達基金 - 美國基金 Fidelity Funds - America $1, Leader 富蘭克林美國機會基金 Franklin US Opportunities $ Leader Leader $ 美國股票小型公司 American Equity Smaller Companies 貝萊德全球基金 - 美國中小型企業特別時機基金 $ BGF US Small & MidCap Opportunities Fund 施羅德環球基金系列 - 美國小型公司基金 $ Schroder ISF US Smaller Companies $ 日本股票 Japan Equity 景順日本動力基金 Invesco Japanese Equity Core $ Leader Leader 富達基金 - 日本領先基金 Fidelity Funds - Japan Advantage JPY $ Leader Leader $ 大中華股票 Greater China Equity 惠理價值基金 Value Partners Classic Fund $ Leader Leader 霸菱香港中國基金 Baring Hong Kong China $4, Leader Leader 首域大中華增長基金 First State Greater China Growth $ Leader Leader $ 中國股票 China Equity 首域中國增長基金 First State China Growth $3, Leader Leader 惠理中華匯聚基金 Value Partners Intelligent-China Convergence $ Leader Leader $ 香港股票 Hong Kong Equity 施羅德環球基金系列 - 香港股票基金 HKD $ Schroder ISF Hong Kong Equity 德盛香港基金 Allianz RCM Hong Kong $ 首域香港增長基金 First State Hong Kong Growth $ Leader 4 $ 台灣股票 Taiwan Equity 施羅德環球基金系列 - 台灣股票基金 $ Leader Leader Schroder ISF Taiwanese Equity 富達基金 - 台灣基金 Fidelity Funds - Taiwan $ $ 韓國股票 Korea Equity JF 南韓基金 JF Korea Fund $ Leader Leader 景順韓國基金 Invesco Korean Equity $ Leader 4 $ 泰國股票 Thailand Equity JF 泰國基金 JF Thailand Fund $ Leader Leader 富達基金 - 泰國基金 Fidelity Funds - Thailand $ Leader 4 $ 印度股票 India Equity 匯豐環球投資基金 - 印度股票基金 HSBC GIF Indian Equity $6, First State 首域印度次大陸基金 Indian Subcontinent $ Leader 4 $ 新加坡股票 Singapore Equity JF 新加坡基金 JF Singapore Fund $ 富達基金 - 新加坡基金 Fidelity Funds - Singapore $ Leader Leader $ Lipper 基金評級 :Lipper 基金評級每月更新一次, 並根據三年的穩定回報保本能力及總回報所得的數值計算每隻基金等權平均數, 繼而將同類基金以百分位數排名於同一組別中, 領先的 20% 基金在總體回報上被授予 Lipper Leaders 稱號, 之後的 20% 為 2 級中間的 20% 為 3 級, 再之後的 20% 為 4 級, 最後的 20% 為 5 級 Lipper 基金評級不可預測基金表現, 而且 Lipper 並不保證資訊的準確性查詢詳情, 請瀏覽 Lipper Ratings: The Lipper ratings are subject to change every month and are based on an equal-weighted average of percentile ranks for Consistent Return, Preservation, and Total Return metrics over three-year periods. The highest 20% of funds in each peer group are named Lipper Leaders, the next 20% receive a score of 2, the middle 20% are scored 3, the next 20% are scored 4, and the lowest 20% are scored 5. Lipper ratings are not intended to predict future results, and Lipper does not guarantee the accuracy of this information. More information is available at 夏普比率是用來衡量基金調整風險後的表現之比率它以標準差及超額回報率計算每一分風險所得到的報酬補償夏普比率愈高, 代表基金在歷史風險調整後的回報表現愈高 Sharpe ratio is a ratio to measure mutual fund s risk-adjusted performance. It is calculated using standard deviation and excess return to determine reward per unit of risk. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the fund s historical risk-adjusted performance. 5 G l o b a l I n v e s t m e n t U p d a t e

外匯市場速遞 Foreign Currency Snapshot 英鎊即使其他央行已開始逐步撤出緊急經濟刺激措施, 但英倫銀行可能被迫進一步放鬆銀根以提振經濟, 令 2 月份英鎊持續下滑經濟數據依然顯示, 英國經濟的復甦步伐落後於大部分發達地區, 反映英倫銀行將於今年一直維持當前的低息水平, 甚至進一步採取量化寬鬆計劃來刺激經濟此外, 英國的預算赤字不斷上升,

6 外匯市場速遞 Foreign Currency Snapshot 英鎊即使其他央行已開始逐步撤出緊急經濟刺激措施, 但英倫銀行可能被迫進一步放鬆銀根以提振經濟, 令 2 月份英鎊持續下滑經濟數據依然顯示, 英國經濟的復甦步伐落後於大部分發達地區, 反映英倫銀行將於今年一直維持當前的低息水平, 甚至進一步採取量化寬鬆計劃來刺激經濟此外, 英國的預算赤字不斷上升, 亦令市場憂慮英國的主權信用評級可能被下調英國將在 6 月初或更早舉行大選, 為英鎊的走勢增添另一不明朗因素英鎊匯價將仍然偏弱歐元由於希臘發生主權信用危機, 而葡萄牙西班牙等其他國家亦可能陷入財政困境, 打擊投資者對歐元的信心, 拖累歐元兌美元跌至九個月的低位希臘的政治反對勢力阻撓政府採取緊縮計劃來削減赤字, 令投資者更加憂慮希臘的主權信用評級可能會被下調投資者亦擔心希臘的財政問題可能擴散至西班牙葡萄牙及其他背負巨額預算赤字的歐洲國家雖然這些國家在承受經濟持續低迷的後果下仍努力推行財政改革及赤字縮減計劃, 但歐元區各國的經濟發展失衡, 可能破壞歐洲單一貨幣體系的穩定性我們看淡歐元的短期走勢 GBP Economic readings continue to signal that the economic recovery in the UK lags behind most of the developed regions, suggesting that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at current low levels throughout the year, or even adopt further quantitative easing programs to stimulate the economy. Besides, rising budget deficits in the UK also fuel market worries over possible sovereign rating downgrade. GBP remains biased to the downside. Fears of possible sovereign rating downgrade for Greece mount as local political oppositions hinder the government to carry out austerity deficitreduction plans. Even though these countries struggle to implement fiscal reforms and deficit-reduction plans by suffering lingering economic depression, the imbalanced economic development amongst countries within the Euro Zone may trigger instability of the single European currency system. We are negative to in the near term. 6 環球投資分析資料來源 Sources: Reuters

澳元 2 月份澳洲儲備銀行維持利率不變, 出乎市場意料之外不過, 由於當地經濟保持強勢, 而控制通脹被視為重要目標, 澳洲儲備銀行於 3

而失業率下降導致薪金有上調壓力, 則會增添國內的通脹壓力雖然近期希臘的主權信用危機削弱了投資者承受風險的意欲並拖累澳元,

restraining inflation becomes a prominent focus, market generally expects

Although recent sovereign crisis in Greece has dampened investors risk

7 澳元 2 月份澳洲儲備銀行維持利率不變, 出乎市場意料之外不過, 由於當地經濟保持強勢, 而控制通脹被視為重要目標, 澳洲儲備銀行於 3 月初加息四分之一厘, 市場亦普遍預期澳洲儲備銀行今年將傾向維持貨幣緊縮政策中國及印度對原材料持續強勁的需求, 將使澳洲經濟保持增長動力 ; 而失業率下降導致薪金有上調壓力, 則會增添國內的通脹壓力雖然近期希臘的主權信用危機削弱了投資者承受風險的意欲並拖累澳元, 但澳洲經濟基調穩健及享有不斷擴大的息差優勢, 因此我們仍然看好澳元 AUD As economic backdrop stays robust and restraining inflation becomes a prominent focus, market generally expects the central bank to maintain a monetary tightening bias this year. Although recent sovereign crisis in Greece has dampened investors risk appetite and undermine AUD, we remain bullish on AUD on solid economic fundamentals and widening yield advantages.

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Microsoft PowerPoint - ~6631638.ppt

Microsoft PowerPoint - ~6631638.ppt Fixed Income 1 Why Investing in bonds? 2 CPY Fixed Income Department Overview Professional and experienced team Top-notch client-focused services Offering diversified fixed income products Unique short