Vol. 36 No. 3 May Population Research * ~ GDP Population Aging Population Growth and Economic Growth Eviden

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1 Vol. 36 No. 3 May Population Research * ~ GDP Population Aging Population Growth and Economic Growth Evidence from China' s Provincial Panel Data Hu Angang Liu Shenglong Ma Zhenguo Abstract Using the Solow growth theory and a modified Cobb - Douglas production function which contains human capital this paper analyzes the impact of population aging and population growth on economic growth.theoretical analysis shows that both population aging and population growth have negative influence on economic growth.empirical models on the basis of theoretical analysis are constructed and China' s provincial panel data from for empirical test are collected.model results correspond to the results of theoretical analysis.the research also shows that 1 initial GDP per capita has negative effect on economic growth indicating conditional convergence in China' s regional economic growth 2 human capital investment saving rate and labor force participation rate all have positive influence on economic growth. Keywords Population Aging Population Growth Economic Growth Working - age Population Dependency Ratio Authors Hu Angang is Dean and Professor Institute for Contemporary China Study and School of Public Management and Policy Tsinghua University Liu Shenglong is Assistant Researcher Quantitative & Technical Economics Institute Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Ma Zhenguo is Master Student School of Public Management and Policy Tsinghua University. sina.com *

2 Faruqee and Muhleisen 2002 MacKellar 2004 Lindh and Malmberg 1999 Groezen 2005 Futagami and Nakajima /6 ~ 1 / Tyers 2007 David 2007 Lee Skinner 1999 Bloom Wang Mason 2005 Wei Hao 2010 Solow growth model 1990 ~ 2008 GMM ~ ~ ~ ~ % 2004 Wang Mason /3 Bloom Finlay 2009 Zheng Hao /6

3 C. W. Cobb PaulH. Douglas C - D GDP GDP 2. 1 N u 65 h 0 ~ ~ u - h N 1 - u - h Y = AK α Ep 1 - u - h N β 1 Y A K E 1 - u - h N E 1 - u - h N P P α + β = 1 K k = 2 p 1 - u - h N y = Y N = Akα E β p 1 - u - h GDP 2 3 u y u = - Aβpkα E β < 0 GDP 2. 2 GDP GDP GDP dn t k t N t t k = dk t /dt N = 1 dt N t = e nt + c c N = nn t s ρ k = sy - ρk 4 Y 1 Y 2 Y - Y 1 - Y 2 t 1 = Y 1 /un Y /N t 2 = Y 2 /hn Y /N s L s L Y - Y 1 - Y 2 sy Y 1 Y 2 s L 1 1

4 t 1 u - t 2 h = s s L u GDP sy k = - n + ρ k p 1 - u - h 5 k & = k * = E As 1 /β ( n + ρ) y * = Ep 1 - u - h A 1 /β α /β s ( n + ρ) lny * - lny = lne + 1 β lna + α β ln s + lnp + ln 1 - u - h - lny n + ρ 7 5 s n + ρ = k [ + k n + ρ ] p 1 - u - h 7 y lny * - lny = α k β ln [ + 1 n + ρ k ] α k β n + ρ k 8 2 = α dt k dlny = β n + ρ lny * dt - lny 9 7 dlny = n + ρ βlne + lna + αlns - αln n + ρ + βln 1 - u - h + βlnp - βlny 10 dt 10 A s E P n u GDP y it = α 0 + α 1 y i t α 2 lnpcgdp it + α 3 lnpop it + α 4 lne + α 5 lns + α 6 ln n + ρ + ρ 7 lnp + f i + ε it GDP 1978 = = 100

5 GDP pcgdp GDP pop 1 - u - h 1 - u - ρ depend u + h / 1 - u - h 11 E s p GNI GDP n + ρ ρ 5% 17% 1 10% 5% 15% Table 1 Descriptive Statistics of Variables grgdp pcgdp u - h depend E s n p ~ GDP 1995 ~ Perkis % Young % % % % 8% 5% ~ 17% 28

6 GDP GNI Arellano Bond 1991 first differenced GMM 11 Arellano Bover 1995 Blundell Bond 1998 System GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS FE GMM 2 2 Arellano Bover 1995 Blundell Bond 1998 AR ε it - Sargan GMM GMM AR 2 Sargan ln 1 - u - h 5% lndepend 1% 1 Li 2007

7 20 36 ln n + ρ 2009 Bai 2006 GDP GDP Romer % % % 37. 4% Wang Mason GDP 1% GDP GDP

8 3 21 Table 2 2 Empirical Results of the Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth / OLS FE GMM GMM OLS FE GMM GMM L. grgdp ** ** ** ** lnpcgdp ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ln 1 - u - h ** ** * * lndepend ** ** ** ** lne ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** lns ** ** ** ** ** * ln n + ρ ** ** ** ** lnp ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Constant ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Observations R - squared Abond test for AR Abond test for AR Sargan test * ** 5% 1% 3 10% 5% 1% Fukuda 2006

9 % 15% 2 OLS FE GMM GMM 3 AR 2 Sargan Table 3 3 Sensitivity Test of the Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth / GMM GMM GMM GMM GMM GMM GMM GMM L. grgdp ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** lnpcgdp ** ** ** ** * ** ** ln 1 - u - h ** * lndepend ** * ** ** lne ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** lns ** * ** Ln n + ρ ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** lnp * ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Constant * ** * ** * ** ** ** Observations Abond test for AR Abond test for AR Sargan test * ** 5% 1% % % 3 5% 3 GDP

10 C - D GDP GDP 1995 ~ GDP ~ % 16% % % ~ 17% % % GDP % % % 40% 12. 4

11 % /References Cai Fang Demographic Transition Population Dividend and Sustainability of Economic Growth. Population Research Cai Fang and Wang Meiyan The Challenges of Getting Old before Getting Rich on Economic Growth Sustainability. Macroeconomics Gong Liutang and Xie Danyang Factor Mobility and Dispersion in Marginal Products in China. Economic Research Journal China's State Council The 12th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China. Mar Hu Angang Prudently Adjust the Family Planning Policy and Stabilize the Future Population Size. Economic Infor

12 3 25 mation Daily Nov Hu Angang and Li Chunbo New Poverty during the New Century Knowledge Poverty. Social Sciences in China Huang Yongfeng Ren Ruoen and Liu Xiaosheng Capital Stock Estimates in Chinese Manufacturing by Perpetual Inventory Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics Li Jun The Balanced Economic Growth Path under the Aging Population. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics Richard Jackson Keisuke Nakashima and Neil Howe China' s Long March to Retirement Reform. Translated by Zhou Jiangong Liu Shenglong Wang Yahua and Hu Angang The Effect of Western Development Program and Regional Economic Convergence in China. Economic Research Journal Wang Dewen Cai Fang and Zhang Xuehui Saving and Growth Effects of Demographic Transition. Population Research Hu Angang Yan Yilong and Wei Xing China towards Common Prosperity. Beijing China Renmin University Press Wang Xiaolu Fan Gang and Liu Peng Transformation of Growth Pattern and Growth Sustainability in China. Economic Research Journal Zhang Jun Wu Guiying and Zhang Jipeng The Estimation of China's Provincial Capital Stock Economic Research Journal Arellano M. and Bond S Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies Arellano M. and Bover O Another Look at the Instrumental Variables Estimation of Error component models. Journal of Econometrics Bai Chong - en Yingyi Qian and Chang - tai Hsieh The Return to Capital in China. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Bloom D. E. Canning D. and Malaney P. N Population dynamics and economic growth in Asia. Population and Development Review Bloom D. E. and Finlay J. E Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review Bloom D. Canning D. Mansfield R. and Moore M Demographic Change Social Security Systems and Savings. Journal of Monetary Economics Blundell R. and Bond S Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models. Journal of Econometrics Faruqee H. and Muhleisen M Population Aging in Japan Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability. Japan and the World Economy

13 Fukuda K A Cohort Analysis of Female Labor Participation Rate in the U. S. and Japan. Review of Economics of the Household Futagami K. and Nakijima T Population Aging and Economic Growth. Journal of Macroeconomics Horioka C. Y. and Wan J. M The Determinants of Household Saving in China A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data. Journal of Money Credit and Banking Groezen B. V. Meijdamy L. and Harrie A Serving the Old Ageing and Economic Growth. Oxford Economic Papers Lee R. and Skinner J Will Aging Boomers Bust the Federal Budget. Journal of Economic Perspective Li H. B. Zhang J. and Zhang J. S Effects of Longevity an Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries. Journal of Development Economic Lindh T. and Malmberg B Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD Journal of Population Economics MacKellar L Economic Impacts of Population Aging in Japan Edward Elgar Publishing. 31 Perkins D. H Reforming China's Economic System. Journal of Economic Literature Romer D Advanced Macroeconomics 2th edition. New York McHraw - Hill. 33 Tyers R. Golley J. and Bain I Projected Economic Growth in China and India The Role of Demographic Change. Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics No. 477 Australian National University. 34 Wang F. and Mason A Demographic Dividend and Prospects for Economic Development in China. Papers presented at the UN Expert Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures Mexico City. 35 Wei Z. and Hao R Demographic Structure and Economic Growth Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics Young A Gold into Base Metals Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China During the Reform Period. NBER Working Paper

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