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1 Vol. 41 No. 4 July Population Research * 1987 ~ GDP 1. 9% 1 GDP 1. 7% 1987 ~ % 2015 ~ The Effects of Changing Age Structure on Economic Growth Xiao Yiping Yang Yanlin Abstract Using the census data of China this paper studies the effects of changes in demographic age structure on economic growth. We use fixed effect models for panel data to investigate the impact of size and age composition of working-age population on economic growth. The result shows that one percentage-point increase in the working-age population ratio would lead to a 1. 9% increase in GDP per capita and one percentage-point increase in the share of the population at prime ages lead to a 1. 7% increase in GDP per capita. Estimating the contribution of changes in age structure to China's economic growth the result suggests that during the period changes in age structure contribute to % of China's economic growth. It is forecasted that China's demographic dividend window would be closed during the period of Finally we decompose the effect of changes in age structure on economic growth demonstrating that age structure affects economic growth mainly through the improvement of the efficiency of production factors the accumulation of human capital and the enhancement of employment. Keywords Age Structure Working-age Population Prime-age Population Economic Growth Authors Xiao Yiping is PhD Candidate Economics and Management School Wuhan University also joint PhD Candidate in the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Yang Yanlin is Professor Center for Economic Development Research Wuhan University. xapple915@ 163. com * 14JJD790042

2 % GDP 6. 7% Bloom et al Bloom and Williamson 1998 Bloom et al K gel Lindh Malmberg 1999 Feyrer 2007 Gómez De Cos Development Accounting Framework Klenow and Rodriguez-Clare 1997 Caselli 2005

3 4 35 log y it = α + β D it + γ X it + μ i + ε it 1 i t y it GDPD it X it μ i 1 ε it Gómez De Cos ~ ~ ~ 59 log y it = α + β 1 L it + β 2 P it + γ X it + μ i + ε it 2 L it P it 2 log y it = α + β 1 L it + β 2 P it + β 3 E it + γ X it + μ i + ε it 3 15 ~ ~ 59 X it ~ ~ % ~ ~ 2015 GDP 1987 ~ % % % ~ % % ~ % % 1

4 ~ % 8. 32% % % % % % 1 Table 1 Definition of Variables GDP % 15 ~ 59 / % 15 ~ 24 /15 ~ % 25 ~ 54 /15 ~ % 55 ~ 59 /15 ~ % 1 60 / * % / % / % 3 / % / / ~ 2015 GDP ~ Psaeharopoulos GDP 1 ~ 5 GDP GDP GDP GDP

5 GDP 2 GDP Figure 1 Scatterplot of logged GDP per Capita and Working-age Population Ratio Figure 2 Scatterplot of logged GDP per Capita and Ratio of Popolation Aged GDP 4 GDP Figure 3 Scatterplot of logged GDP per Capita Figure 4 Scatterplot of logged GDP per Capita and Ratio of Population Aged and Ratio of Population Aged GDP Figure 5 Scatterplot of logged GDP per Capita and Ratio of the Eldely over 60

6 Hausman Hausman p < μ i 2 Table ~ 2015 Fixed Effect Estimates of the Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth GDP logy *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** Hausman p = p = p = p = p = p = *** ** * 1% 5% 10% t Hausman P 2 1 GDP GDP GDP 1. 9% 1 GDP 1. 7% 1 GDP 0. 9% 2 4 ~ 6 1 ~ 3

7 IV ε it ε it ε it Zhang et al IV 3 Table ~ 2015 IV Fixed-effect IV Estimates of the Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth GDP logy *** ** *** ** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** Hausman p = p = p = p = p = p = *** ** * 1% 5% 10% t Hausman P 3 Hausman P > IV 3. 3

8 ~ ~ ~ 2025 Table 4 Contributions of Age Structure Change to Economic Growth L 0 L 1 P 0 P ΔL β ΔP β GDP ΔT ΔT ΔT 1987 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ L 0 L 1 P 0 P 1 ΔL β ΔP β ΔT ΔT β 1 = β 2 = ~ 2015 GDP 8. 66% % % ~ 2010 GDP 8. 95% % % ~ % % 2010 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1987 GDP UNPD 2015

9 % 2. 99% % 2015 ~ ~ Y it = K α it A it H it 1 -α 0 < α < 1 4 Y K A TFP H i t 4 Y α it N 1 -α N it Y 1 -α it N it ( ) = K it Y it α it 1 -α H it A it N it 5 H it L it L it α H it N it N it Y it ( ) = K it N it Y it α 1 -α H it Ait L it L it N it 6 L y it = Y it k N it = K it h it Y it = H it it L it m it = L it 6 N it y it = k ( ) it α 1 -αa it h it m it 7 7 logy it = α 1 - α log k it + loga it + log h it + log m it GDP 4 4 GDP GDP 2004

10 Table 5 5 Fixed Effect Estimates of Decomposition Analysis α logy loga logk 1 - α logh logm *** ** **** *** *** *** *** ** F α logk α 1 /3*** ** * 1% 5% 10% t 1 - α F 5 > > ~ ~ % 3. 58% % 15 ~ ~ % % ~ ~ 24

11 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 74 37% 25% 16% 2015 ~ ~ % 2010 ~ % 2010 ~ ~ ~ Werding ~ ~ ~

12 ~ ~ % 25. 2% /References 1 Bloom D. E. and Canning D How Demographic Change Can Bolster Economic Performance in Developing Countries. World Economics Research Groupin Institute of Economics of CASS The Effects of Labor Supply and Economic Growth Path Transition. Economic Research Journal Cai Fang Demographic Transition Demographic Dividend and Lewis Turning Point in China. Economic Research Journal Bloom D. E. and Williamson J. G Demographic Transition and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review K gel T Youth Dependency and Total Factor Productivity. Journal of Development Economics Wang Wei Economic Growth Demographic Transition and China's High Savings. China Economic Quarterly M. W. Luke Chan. SYS-GMM

13 4 45 Li Xing and M. W. Luke Chan An Analysis of Demographic Change and Economic Growth of China Based on System GMM. Statistical Research Lindh T. and Malmberg B Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD Journal of Population Economics Feyrer J Demographics and Productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics Gómez R. and De Cos P. H The Importance of Being Mature the Effect of Demographic Maturation on Global per Capita GDP. Journal of Population Economics Klenow P. J. and Rodríguez-Clare A The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics Has It Gone Too Far. NBER Macroeconomics Annual Caselli F Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences. Handbook of Economic Growth Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics China Compendium of Statistics China Statistics Press ~ 2016 National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook China Statistics Press. 15 Psacharopoulos G. and Patrinos H. A Returns to Investment in Education A Further Update. Education Economics Peng Guohua The Disparity of Income TFP and the Convergence Hypothesis in Chinese Provinces. Economic Research Journal Zhou Yixing and Tian Shuai Revising the Data of Urbanization Level from Province Level in China Based on the Data of The Fifth Population Census. Statistics Research Zhang H. Zhang H. and Zhang J Demographic Age Structure and Economic Development Evidence From Chinese Provinces. Journal of Comparative Economics Department of Population and Employment Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics of China The 1982 Population Census. China Statistics Press. 20 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Prospects The 2015 Revision Key Firdings and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA /P /WP Zhang Jun Wu Guiying and Zhang Jipeng The Estimation of China's Provincial Capital Stock Economic Research Journal Werding M Ageing and Productivity Growth Are There Macro-Level Cohort Effects of Human Capital CESifo Working Paper No Cai Fang How Long Can China's Demographic Dividend Last. Economic Dynamics

3 L K Y Y t =A t F L t K t 1 A 1 15~ UN % 65 7% 55

2010 2008 3 1851 2006 2010 2000 54 3 L K Y Y t =A t F L t K t 1 A 1 15~64 2005 2 2010 2025 UN 2008 1 1 1 2 60 10% 65 7% 55 2010 Y t =A t L t K α 1- t α 2 y y t =α l t + 1- α k t +a t 3 l k a 1985 2010