[ 9, 10, ],, 21 (CL IVA R ),,, ; [ 11 ], G ISST, 20 2 G ISST (Global Sea2Ice and Sea Surface T emperature V ersion 2. 3) ,,,
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1 ACTA M ETEOROLO G ICA S IN ICA Vol. 59, No. 3 Jun., 2001 X 20 ( (LA SG),, ) G ISST, 20,, : (1) SST,, ; SST, 2 ;, SST,, SST (2), 20 S SST,, 20 50, 0. 6, 20 S ; SST N ino 3, N ino (3) SST,, SST (4) SST, ; SST,, SST :,,, 1 E l N in z o,,,,,,,, 3 W alker [ 1 ] [ 2, 3, ] EN SO [ 4 6 ] [ 7, 8 ] X : ; : : ( ) (KZCX2-108)
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2 [ 9, 10, ],, 21 (CL IVA R ),,, ; [ 11 ], G ISST, 20 2 G ISST (Global Sea2Ice and Sea Surface T emperature V ersion 2. 3) ,,, G ISST,, EN SO,, G ISST ,, , ,, [12 ], (EO F),, T f (t), : f (t) = a0 + Xk= 2Pk T k, T k a0, ak bk (1),, k, k= 1 10 a,, 10 (akco s Xk t + bk sin Xk t) (1) 3, [ 13 ] SST 1, 60 E 10 ( :, 0. 4 ), 28. 0, ;,, 30 S,, 30 S, 1 SST ( ), :, SST, S,
3 3 : S, 50 E, 1. 0 ;,, , SST 3 9 SST ( ),,,, S;,, 100 E, 1. 0 SST, SST, 2 4 (15 N, 10 N, 10 S) SST , SST, 2 2, SST,, :, ( ), 10 N, , 5 ;, 7 9, ,,, SST, 8,, 7 9,,, SST, 80 E 2a,, 3 10, 28,, 7 9,, ( ), SST,, 2 SST (a. 15 N, b. 10 N, c., d. 10 S; : ; 28 )
4 260 59, 2d, 10 S, 8, 2 ; 3, , 10 S 10 N, E, Ind 1, SST 3a, ; 20 50,, 0. 5 ; ,, 1 3, 1. 0, SST (a. (10 S 10 N, E), b. (5 S 5 N, E), c. N ino 3 (5 S 5 N, W ) ; : ) Ind 1, SST, 4, Ind 1 SST, SST 4,,, 20 S
5 3 : SST SST ( 0. 2; : R), 0. 2, SST,,, Ind 1, 20 S 30 N, E Ind 2, SST 3a, ( ) 0. 95, SST, 20 S (60 S 25 N, E) SST (EO F), 5a, 27. 6% ; ( ) 5b 5a,, 3a, 50 5b 3a SST 0. 66, 99%, 5,, SST,, 5a 45 S, 50 E, 20 S 1 SST, 4, SST,,, SST, 4, SST SST SST,, ,,,
6 SST (a) (b) 4. 2, E ln in z o, SST [ 5 ] SST, 3c N ino 3 (5 S 5 N, W ) SST SST, 6a 20 S, 0. 3 SST,, [ 8 ] , (10 S 10 N, E) SST,, 6a, 6a, 5a EO F, Tourre W h ite (1995) ,, E ln in z [ 5 o ], E ln in z o,,, SST SST SST, 6b N ino 3 SST SST ( ) N ino 3 4 5, 0. 4, SST, SST,,
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7 3 : N ino 3 SST (a) SST ( ), ( ) ( ) N ino 3 (b); ( 95% ),, E ln in z [ 5 o SST ],,, (1998) -, [ 6 EN SO ] ; Barnett [ 2 ] M eeh l [ 3 ] EN SO, SST,,, SST, N ino 3 5 6, 20 N, ( ) 4. 3 SST 28 R a2 m anathan [ 14 ] 10 S 10 N, E,
8 S 5 N, E, SST,, 5, N ino 3 SST,, ( 3b) SST,, 20, 50, 3b 3a, 0. 24, 95%, SST,,,, (SPCZ) ( ) SST,,,, 3b,,, 218, ;, 222,, 7 SST, 1. 0, ( ) 1. 0,, 0. 3, SST,,, 7 SST ( : ; 0. 3 ; 0. 2 ) SST,, SST,,, SST, 4. 4 SST, 3a SST
9 3 : , 10 a ( : ), 10 a ( 8a), N ino 3 SST ( 8b, c),, :, 20 20,, 50,, 90, 0. 6 ;, 20 30,, 50,, 90, 0. 3, 8a, b, N ino 3, 4. 5, SST,,, SST,, 30 S, 11. 0% ( ), 1 SST, S, E, SST, SST, 9a 9b 9a, 10 a SST, ;, SST 1. 0, SST, a 3 SST
10 266 59, , 95%, SST, 9 ( S, E) SST (a) 10 a (b) ( : ) ( 9b), ; 8a, b, ,, SST,, 5 G ISST, 20,,, : (1) SST,, SST,, 2 SST, SST (2) 20 S SST,, 20 50,, 0. 6, 20 S ; SST N ino 3, N ino 3 4 5, (3) 20 50, 0. 3 SST, SST
11 3 : , SST,, ( ), (4) SST,, SST, ;,,, 6 SST,,,,,, (1) SST,, Donguy [ 15, ] SST, SST,,,, SST, [ ] 4 6a,,?, E ln in z o, 30 S 50 N SST EO F, 10a ( 3), 54%,, 11, 1 a (intra2annual variability),, E l N in z o M orlet, 10b, 3 4 a, EN SO, 10a E ln in z o SST 4 6a 10a,, (2), N ino 3 SST, 11 ( 3), E ln in z o, E l N in z o, 11 Pan Oort [ 18 ] E l N in z o, 4 6a, EN SO,, ( ) 10a 11, EN SO,, SST, Graham [ 19 ] L au N ath [ 20 ], E l N in z o,,,, SST (3), E l N in z o, SST :, SST, 4 5,
12 268 59, W allace [ 21 ] L atif Barnett [ 22 ] ;,V enzke, 4, [ 23 SST ] K iladis D iaz EN SO [ 24 SST ], [ 25, 26 EN SO, ], EN SO, E ln ino ( ), E l N in z o, X (4),, Yu, SST [ 27 SST ] ;,, SST XX,?,, SST, Behera [ 28 ] SST,, E l N in z o,, SST, H irst Godfrey [ 29 ] Godfrey Schneider [ 30 ],, (20 40 S) SST,,, 1 W ebster P J, M agana V O, Palm er T N. M onsoon: P rocess, p redictability, and the p rospects for p rediction. J Geo2 phys Res, 1998, 103 (c7) : Barnett T P. Interaction of the M onsoon and Pacific trade w ind system at interannual tim e scaleṡ Part III: A partial anatom y of the Southern O scillation. M on W ea Rev, 1984, 112 (12) : M eehl G A. A coup led air2sea biennial m echanism in the trop ical Indian and Pacific regions: Role of the oceanṡ J Cli2 m ate, 1993, 6: L atif M, Sterl A, A ssenbaum M, et al. Clim ate variability in a coup led GCM. Part II: The Indian O cean and mon2 soon. J Clim ate, 1994, 7: Tourre Y M, W hite W B. EN SO signals in global upper2ocean temperature. J Phys O ceanogr, 1995, 25: ,. - EN SO İ., 1998, 22 (4) : X X Zhou T ianjun, and L i Zhaoxin, Response of an A GCM to the forcing of anom alous SST in the trop ical Indian O cean and the Pacific associated w ith E ln in z o event, In: A nnual Report of N ational Key L aboratory of N um ericalm odelling for A tmospheric Sciences and Geophysical F luid Dynam ics (LA SG ), Beijing, LA SG, Institute of A tmospheric Physics, Chinese A cadem y of Siences, 2000, 1-45., SST ( )
13 3 : Jury M R. A clim atic dipole governing the interannual variability of convection over the SW Indian O cean and SE A frica region. T rends in Geophysical Research, 1992, 1: Rodw ellm J, Hoskins B J. M onsoons and the dynam ics of desertṡ Q uart J Roy M eteor Soc, 1996, 122: Kum ar A, Hoerling M P. Indian O cean SST anom alies and their global impacṫ In: P roceedings of the Tw enty2first A nnual Clim ate D iagnostic and P rediction W orkshop, Am erican M eteorology Society, 1996, Kaw am ura R. A rotated EO F analysis of global sea surface temperature variability w ith interannual and interdecadal tim e scaleṡ J Phys O cean, 1994, 24: International CL IVAR P roject O ffice. CL IVAR Initial Imp lem entation P lan, W CRP No. 103, Ham burg, 1997, Rayner N A, Horton E B, Parker D E, et al. V ersion 2. 2 of the global sea2ice and sea surface temperature data set, , Sep tem ber 1996, Clim ate Research Technical Note 74 (CRTN 74), Hadley Centre for Clim ate P redic2 tion and Research, M eteorolgical O ffice, London Road, B racknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY 13 Peixoto J P, A H Oort,.. :, pp 14 Ram anathan V, Subasilar E, Zhang G J, et al. W arm pool heat budget and shortw ave cloud forcing: A m issing physics? Science, 1995, 267: Donguy J R, M eyers G. Seasonal variations of sea surface salinity and temperature in the trop ical Indian O cean. Deep Sea Reṡ Part I, 1996, 43: W eare B C. A statistical study of the relationship betw een ocean temperature and the Indian monsoon. J A tmos Sci, 1979, 36: Perigaud C, Delecluse P. Interannual sea level variations in the trop ical Indian O cean from geosat and shallow w ater sim ulationṡ J Phys O ceanogr, 1993, 23: Pan Y H, Oort A H. Correlation analyses betw een sea surface temperature anom alies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the W orld O cean. Clim Dyn, 1990, 4: Graham N E, Barnett T P, W ilde R, et al. O n the roles of trop ical and m idlatitude SST s in forcing interannual to in2 terdecadal variability in the w inter Northern Hem isphere circulation. J Clim ate, 1994, 7: L au N C, N ath M J. The role of the atmospheric bridge in linking trop ical Pacific EN SO events to extratrop ical SST anom alieṡ J Clim ate, 1996, 9: W allace J M, Rasm usson E M, M itchell T P, et al. O n the structure and evolution of EN SO 2related clim ate variability in the trop ical Pacific: lessons from TO GA. J Geophys Res, 1998, 103 (C7) : L atif M, Barnett T P. Interactions of the trop ical oceanṡ J Clim ate, 1995, 8: V enzke S, L atif M, V illwock A. The coup led GCM ECHO 22. Part II: Indian O cean response to EN SO. J Clim ate, 2000, 13: Kiladis G N, D iaz H F. Global clim atic anom alies associated w ith extrem es in the Southern O scillation. J Clim ate, 1989, 2: Saji N H, Gosw am i B N, V inayachandran P N, et al. A dipole mode in the trop ical Indian O cean. N ature, 1999, 401: W ebster P J, M oore A M, Loschnigg J P, et al. Coup led ocean2atmosphere dynam ics in the Indian O cean during N ature, 1999, 401: Yu R C, ZhangM H, Yu Y Q, et al. Summ er monsoon rainfalls overm id2eastern China lagged correlated w ith global SST ṡ A dvances in A tmospheric Sciences, 2001, 18: Behera S K, Yam agata T. Subtrop ical SST dipole events in the southern Indian O cea. Geophysical Research L etters, 2001, 28: H irst A C, Godfrey J S. The role of the Indonesian Throughflow in a global ocean GCM, J Phys O ceanogy, 1993, 23: Schneider N. The Indonesian throughflow and the global clim ate system. J Clim ate, 1998, 11:
14 ON THE VAR IABIL ITY OF THE IND IAN OCEAN D UR ING THE 20TH CENTURY Zhou T ianjun Yu R ucong L iw ei Zhang tate K ey L aboratory of N um erical A tm ospheric S ciences and Geophy sical F luid D y nam A SGSYInstitute of A tm ospheric P hy sicsychinese A cadem y of S ciencesyb eij ing S Abstract U nlike the A tlantic and the PacificKour know ledge on the Indian O cean is relatively de2 ficien ṫ Som e evidences ind icate that the Ind ian O cean m igh t have connection s w ith the A sian2a ustralian monsoon system K EN SO phenom ena and the A frican monsoon system. T huskdetecting the role of the Indian O cean in global clim ate variability is of great value. Based on the Global sea2ice and Sea Surface T emperature dataset ; G ISST GKw h ich has a rel2 atively ideal tim e consistencyk the variability of the Indian O cean during the 20th centuryk together w ith its link to east equato rial Pacific and W estern Equato rial W arm Poo l ;W EW PGKhas been surveyed in th is papeṙ T he results show that the seasonal variation of northern Indian O cean surface temperature ; SST Gis dom inated by the monsoon. D uring the m ature period of the southw est monsoonk the northern Indian O cean surface temperature experiences its coldest stage of annual cycle. T he southern Indian O cean undergoes a routine seasonal p rogressionkand the SST m axim um lags beh ind the annual cycles of solar heating by about 2 month ṡ W h ile the seasonal cycle of equatorial w estern Indian ocean is strongly affected by the monsoonkthe seasonal variation of m iddle and eastern equatorial Indian O cean is not apparenṫ T he Indian O ceankespecially the trop ical Indian O cean north of 20 SKexpe2 rienced a typ ically unanimous variation and had a linear trend of sustained w arm ing in the recent 50 yearsk the m ean surface temperature of equatorial Indian O cean has increased by about 0. 6 since T he w arm anom aly over the Indian O cean associated w ith that tak2 ing p lace over East equatorial Pacific concentrates m ainly in the trop ical Indian O cean north of 20 S. T he strongest response of the equatorial Indian O cean SST lags the N ino 3 index about 4-5 month ṡ It is also found that the variation ofw EW P SST is positively correlated w ith the equatorial northern Indian O cean and the w est w ind drift of the southern Indian O 2 cean. T he decadal scale oscillation of thew EW P SST is sim ilar to that of the equatorial In2 dian O cean. W h ile there are evidences indicating the linkage of the southern Indian O cean to its counterpart of the northern Indian O ceankunique features of the southern Indian O cean have also been found. T he year2to2year deviation of SST over the southern Indian O cean is far stronger than the trop ical parṫ In the view of statisticsk the variation of southern Indian O cean link s coherently w ith the W EWM Kespecially on decadal scale. Key wordsp Ind ian O ceankseasonal cyclek In terannual and decadal scale variab ility.
15
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21 12 2006 12 ADVANCES IN EARTH SC IENCE Vol. 21 No. 12 Dec., 2006 : 100128166 (2006) 1221273210 3 1, 2, 2, 3 (1., 100085; 2., LASG, 100029; 3., 100082) : NCEP /NCAR,,,,,,,, : ; ; ; : P434 : A 1, [ 1 ]
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