ADVANCES IN EARTH SC IENCE Vol. 21 No. 11 Nov., 2006 : (2006) : 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 13, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6

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1 ADVANCES IN EARTH SC IENCE Vol. 21 No. 11 Nov., 2006 : (2006) : 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 13, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6 (1., LASG, ; 2., ; 3., ; 4., ; 5., ; 6., ) :, (A IPO),, A IPO ;, A IPO ; A IPO, : A IPO, : ; ; ; : P46 : A 1 (A IPO ),,, ( 1 ) ( 1 ),,,,, A IPO, ; [ 1 3 ], ( 1 ),,,, : ; : : : ( : 2006CB403600) ; ; ( : , ). : (19432),,,,,. E2ma il: gxwu@ lasg. iap. ac. cn 3 : (19642),,,,. E2ma il: rrc@ lasg. iap. ac. cn

wa ter vapor tran sporta tion route ( light blue th ick arrows) around th is area, 2 2.

2 ( ) ( ) ( ) F ig. 1 Schema tic of the jo in ing area of A sia and Ind ian2pac if ic O cean ( wh ite da shed), the ma in ocean curren t ( black th in arrows) and the wa ter vapor tran sporta tion route ( light blue th ick arrows) around th is area, ,,, 200 kg, 2 000, 3% 6% ( 2) , ; 1999,, 2005, ( ), ( ) F ig. 2 Prof iles of the r ise of the na tiona l econom ics and the losing due to the m eteorolog ica l d isa ster since 1978 ( Prov ided by the Stra tegy O ff ice, Ch ina M eteorolog ica l Adm in istra tion) 3 30,,,,, , 2. 2,,,,,

11 : : 1111 3 1978 2005 ( NCC) ( ) F ig.

(N + f 1 n 1 + f 2 n 2 ), N 0 ; N ; n 1 f 1 n 2 f 2 ( f i ) ( P i ), 6 5 [ 10] F ig.

3 11 : : ( NCC) ( ) F ig. 3 Sk ill of the prec ip ita tion pred iction of the Na tiona l C lima te Cen ter ( NCC) dur ing the flood sea son s from 1978 to 2005 ( Prov ided by NCC) : ( ) P = 100 (N 0 + f 1 n 1 + f 2 n 2 ) / (N + f 1 n 1 + f 2 n 2 ), N 0 ; N ; n 1 f 1 n 2 f 2 ( f i ) ( P i ), 6 5 [ 10] F ig. 6 Correla tion coeff ic ien ts between the observed and sim ula ted June2August prec ip ita tion anoma lies from f ive2m odel m ulti2en sem ble m ean 5 : (NCEP), (JMA), (NASA) (COLA) / ( SNU /KMA) The five models are from National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) ; Japan Meteorological Agency; Center for Ocean2Land2A tmosphere (COLA), National Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA) ; and Seoul National University/ Korea Meteorological Adm inistration ( SNU / KMA)

1112 21 70% [ 4 ], :,,,,, [ 5 ] ;, [ 4 ], 2. 3 ( 1) 3 4 ( 4a d) ( 4e h) 850hPa [ 7] F ig. 4 C ircula tion anoma lies a t 850hPa in the extrem e flood ( F ig.

4 % [ 4 ], :,,,,, [ 5 ] ;, [ 4 ], 2. 3 ( 1) 3 4 ( 4a d) ( 4e h) 850hPa [ 7] F ig. 4 C ircula tion anoma lies a t 850hPa in the extrem e flood ( F ig. 4a d) and drought m on ths ( a) ; ( b) ; ( c) ; ( d) ; ( e) ; ( f) ; ( g) ; ( h) ( a) May of 1973; ( b) June of 1998; ( c) June of 1969; ( d) August of 1980; ( e) May of 1986; ( f) June of 1958; ( g) June of 1963; ( h) July of 1978

5 11 : : [ 8] F ig. 5 D ifference of com posite frequenc ies of Trop ica l Storm s from July to O ctober between warm and cold years 90% t, ( 1 ) ; [ 6 ] hpa [ 7 ], ( A ) ; ( C ), 5 ( TSTY) ( ) [ 8 ] TSTY,,,,,,,,,,, [ 9, 10 ],, [ 2 ], [ ], (W alk2 er), EN2 SO [ 14 ] ( TBO ) [ 15 ], [ 1 ] ; [ 16 ] 3 [ 2, 3 ] ( 1 ) ;,,

6 , ENSO,,, ,, WCRP, ( TOGA ), (WOCE) (CL IVAR) ( GEW 2 EX), ( GCOS) ( GOOS) ( GA IM ), ( SOLAS) [ 17 ] WOCE 12,, : ( ) ; ( ) ; ; ; TOGA ARGO GEW EX, 10 25,, 25,,WCRP,,,,WCRP 2005 ( ) ( COPES),, COPES [ 18 ],, 2004 (NAME),,, ; 2001 ( EP IC), ; 1998 ( SHEBA ) [ 17 ], GEW EX ( GAME) (MAHAS2 R I),,,,,,,,,,,, ( 6 ) ( ),, [ 10 ], (NOAA ) ,, (NOAA ) ,, ; ;

7 11 : : 1115 ( 973) ;, ENSO [ 19 ], [ 20 ] [ 21, 22 ], [ 23 ] [ 24 ], ( http: / /www. agu. org/ journals/ ss/ch I2 NASEAS1 /),, [ 19, 25 ], ;,, ENSO, ENSO, ENSO, ENSO, , ENSO, 1999,, ENSO ENSO, , (HUBEX), 973 ( TIPEX ) ( HUA2 MEX) ( SCSMEX),, TOGA2COARE,, [ 26 ] ;, ARGO ( ) Java ( ), CL IVAR / GOOS,,,,,,,, , (973),,, ( 973), 4,,,, 2 : (1),

8 (2), ; :, (1) XBT,, (2) (A2P),,, (3) (A2I), (4) ( I2P),, ENSO, ( ISO) TBO (5) 3,,, (6),,,, (7),,,,, (8), ENSO, ENSO,,, 5,,, CL IVAR COPES,, ; ;,,,,

9 11 : : 1117,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,, : (973),,,, ;, ( References) : [ 1 ] Zhou T J, Yu R C. A tmospheric water vapor transport associated with typ ical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China[ J ]. Jour2 nal of Geophysical Research, 2005, 110: D08104, doi: / 2004JD [ 2 ] D ing yihui. W ater Vapor Budget in Monsoon A rea: A sia Monsoon [M ]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1994: [. : [M ]. :, 1994: ] [ 3 ] L iw P. Moisture flux and water balance over the South China Sea during late boreal sp ring and summer[ J ]. Theoretical and Applied Clim atology, 1999, 64: [ 4 ] Peixoto J P, Oort A H. Physics of Climate[M ]. New York: Amer2 ican Institute of Physics Press, [. [M ]. :, ] [ 5 ] Ganachaud A,W unsch C. Imp roved estimates of global ocean cir2 culation, heat transport and m ixing from hydrographic data [ J ]. N ature, 2000, 408 (23) : [ 6 ] W u Guoxiong, Chou Jifan, L iu Yim in, et al. Dynam ics of the For2 mation and Variation of Subtrop icalanticyclone[m ]. Beijing: Sci2 ence Press, 2002: 314. [,,,. [M ]. :, 2002: 314. ] [ 7 ] Zhang Q iong, L iu Ping, W u Guoxiong. SST in Indian Ocean and the Southern China Ocean and the drought/ flood in Yangtz regions [ J ]. Chinese Journal of A tm ospheric Sciences, 2003, 27 ( 6 ) : [,,. [ J ]., 2003, 27 (6) : ] [ 8 ] Chen Guanghua, Huang Ronghui. The effect of warm pool thermal states on trop ical cyclone in W est Northwest Pacific[ J ]. Journal of Tropical M eteorology, 2006, 22 ( 6) : in p ress. [,. [ J ]., 2006, 22 (6) :. ] [ 9 ] Yu W, Xiang B, L iu L, et al. Understanding the origins of intera2 nnual thermocline variations in the tropical Indian Ocean[ J ]. Geo2 physical Research Letters, 2005, 32: L24706, doi: / 2005GL [ 10 ] W ang B, D ing Q, Fu X, et al. Fundamental channenge in simu2 lation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall[ J ]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32: L15711, doi: / 2005GL [ 11 ] Flohn H. Large2scale aspects of the " summer monsoon" in South and East A sia [ J ]. Journal of M eteorological Society of Japan, 1957, 35: [ 12 ] W u Guoxiong, Zhang Yongshen. Tibetan Plateau forcing and the tim ing of the monsoon onset over South A sia and the South China Sea[ J ]. M onthly W eather Review, 1998, 126: [ 13 ] L iu YM, Chan J C L, Mao J Y, et al. The role of Bay of Bengal Convection in the onset of the 1998 South China Sea summer monsoon[ J ]. M onthly W eather Review, 2002, 130: [ 14 ] W u GuoXiong, MengW en. The gear2like coup ling of air2sea sys2 tem s between equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean [ J ]. Chinese Journal of A tm ospheric Sciences, 1998, 22 ( 4 ) : [,. ENSO [ J ]., 1998, 22 (4) : ] [ 15 ] L i T, W ang B, Chang C P. Theories on the Tropospheric B iennial O scillation: A Review [ C ] IAP /Academ ia Sinica, ed. Dynam2 ics of A tmospheric General Circulation and Climate. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2001: [ 16 ] W ang B, W u R, Lau K M. Interannual variability of A sian sum2 mer monsoon: Contrast between the Indian and W estern North Pacific2East A sian monsoons[ J ]. Journal of Clim ate, 2001, 14: [ 17 ] Comm ittee on Strategic Guidance for NSF s Support of the A tmos2 pheric Sciences National Research Council. Strategic Guidance for the National Science Foundation s Support of the A tmospheric Sciences: An Interim Report [ M /OL ]. http: / /www. nap. edu / catalog/ htm l [ 18 ] World Meteorology O rganization. The World Climate Research Programme Strategic Framework : Coordinated Obser2 vation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES), [ R / OL ]. http: / /www. wmo. ch /web /wcrp /pdf/wcrp - strateg Im2

10 p le_low Res. pdf, [,, [ M ]. :, ] [ 19 ] Huang Ronghui, L i Chongyin, W ang Shaowu, et al. On the Ma2 jor Climate D isasters and Their Formation[M ]. Beijing: Meteoral2 ogy Press, [,,,. [ M ]. :, ] [ 20 ] L i W eip ing, W u Guoxiong, L iu Yim in, et al. How the surface p rocesses over the Tibetan Plateau affect the summertime Tibetan Anticyclone: Numerical experiments[ J ]. Chinese Journal of A t2 m ospheric Sciences, 2001, 25 ( 6) : [,,,. : [ J ]., 2001, 25 (6) : ] [ 21 ] L iu Xin, W u Guoxiong, L iw eip ing, et al. Thermal adap tation of the large2scale circulation to the summer heating over the Tibetan plateau[ J ]. Progress in N atural Science, 2001, 11 ( 3) : [,,,. [ J ]., 2000, 11 (3) : ] [ 22 ] Zhang Xuehong, Shi Guangyu, L iu Hui, et al. IAP Global O2 cean2a tmosphere2land System Model[M ]. Beijing, New York: Science Press, 2000: 252. [ 23 ] Duan A M, W u G X. Role of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in the summer climate patterns over subtrop ical A sia[ J ]. C lim ate D ynam ics, 2005, 24: [ 24 ] Q iao F, Yuan Y, Yang Y, et al. W ave2induced m ixing in the up2 per ocean: D istribution and app lication in a global ocean circula2 tion model [ J ]. Geophysical Research Letter, 2004, 31: L11303, doi: /2004GL [ 25 ] W u Guoxiong, L i Jianp ing, et al. A ir2sea2land Interactions in A2 sia Monsoon Region and their Impacts on the Climate Variation in China[M ]. Beijing: Meteorology Press, [,,. [M ]. :, ] [ 26 ] Hu D, Pang Chongguang. Reexam ination of the role of vertical circulation in sedimentation in the Yellow and East China seas [ J ]. Journal of Hydrodynam ics, 2001, 13: The Key Region Affecting the Short2term Climate Variations in China: The Join ing Area of Asia and Indian2Pacific Ocean WU Guo2xiong 1, L I J ian2p ing 1, ZHOU Tian2jun 1, LU R i2yu 1, YU Yong2qiang 1, ZHU J iang 1, MU Mu 1, DUAN An2m in 1, REN Rong2cai 1, D ING Yi2hui 2, L IW ei2jing 2, HE J in2hai 3, WANG Fan 4, YU W ei2dong 5, Q IAO Fang2li 5, YUAN Dong2liang 3, Q i Yi2quan 6 (1. LASG, Institute of A tm ospheric Physics, Chinese A cadem y of Sciences, B eijing , Ch ina; 2. N ational C lim ate Center, B eijing , Ch ina; 3. N an jing U niversity of Inform ation Science & Technology, N an jing , Ch ina; 4. Institu te of O ceanology, CAS, Q indao , Ch ina; 5. The First Institu te of O ceanography, S tate O ceanic A dm inistration, Q indao , China; 6. South China S ea Institu te of O ceanology, CAS, Guangzhou , China) Abstract: Based on the National Basic Key Research Program (973) Ocean2A tmosphere Interaction over the Joining A rea of A sia and Indian2Pacific Ocean (A IPO ) and Its Impact on the Short2term C limate Variation in Chi2 na, this paper introduces the definition of the Joining A rea of A sia and Indian2Pacific Ocean (A IPO ) ; high2 lights the scientific significances for investigating the air2sea interactions in A IPO area from the view point of multi2 level interactions in the climate system; and stresses why A IPO is a key area for the short2term climate variation and p rediction in China. This p rogram is also an important subject that meets the urgent needs of the national economy. Several key scientific issues are then emphasized. Finally the basic scientific objectives of this p rogram are listed, which are: to reveal the characteristics of air2sea interaction in the A IPO joining area on seasonal to inter2annual time scales; to p ropose a theoretical fram ework about the impacts of these p rocesses on the short2term clim ate varia2 tion in this area; and to p rovide theories and methods for imp roving the East A sian climate p rediction on seasonal to inter2annual scales. Key words: Joining area of A sia and Indian2Pacific oceans; Key region; Short2term climate; A ir2sea interac2 tions.

, 2 : ; 4 8, mm, mm, 43. 3% ; 350 mm, 70% , 32 d, d mm, 45. 1% mm, mm, 850 hpa (

, 2 : ; 4 8, mm, mm, 43. 3% ; 350 mm, 70% , 32 d, d mm, 45. 1% mm, mm, 850 hpa ( 26 1 2008 3 : 1006-7639 (2008) - 01-0001 - 07 AR ID METEOROLOGY Vol. 26 No. 1 March, 2008 2006, (, 211101) : NCEP OLR SST 2006, :, : ; ; ; ; : P458. 1 + 1 : A,,, [ 1 ] [ 2-5 ],, ( 400 m ),,, [ 6 ], 2006,