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1 35 5 Vol. 35 No Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences Oct a J Li Ming-gang Guan Zhao-yong Han Jie et al Interdecadal changes of summertime precipitation extremes in East China in recent five decades J. Trans Atmos Sci in Chinese 50 a a 20 a 30 a d 9 d 3 P467 A Interdecadal changes of summertime precipitation extremes in East China in recent five decades LI Ming-gang 1 2 GUAN Zhao-yong 1 2 HAN Jie 1 2 JIN Da-chao Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education 2. School of Atmospheric Sciences NUIST Nanjing China Abstract Using the daily rainfall data of 90 stations in East China from 1960 to 2009 the interdecadal changes of occurrence frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in boreal summer June-July- August in East China in recent five decades are investigated. Results show that there are significant interdecadal changes of the precipitation extremes in the past 50 years. In recent 20 years the precipitation extremes occur more frequently than those in the earlier 30 years and more and stronger extreme precipitation events are observed in 1990s. In East China the extreme events of precipitation processes last usually less than 9 days. However the extreme events of continuous rainy days last usually more than 9 days. Relative to the other regions in East China the more precipitation processes w ith higher persistence and stronger intensity occur in Fujian Province. The largest extreme rainfall appear in conjunction part of Jiangxi and Anhui provinces. Zones w here the extreme events of precipitation occur more frequently moves interdecadally in meridional direction. The north-south shifts of the zones mentioned a- bove are also observed in the extreme events of daily precipitation and precipitation processes. Interestingly there exist tw o frequent occurrence zones of precipitation extreme events over the south and north of Yangtze River respectively. The two zones get closer to each other and even merge into one in some BAC29B li. ericko@ yahoo. com. cn guanzy@ nuist. edu. cn.

2 decades and get distant from each other in other decades which is observed in the last three decades. Key words East China precipitation extremes boreal summer interdecadal change 0 al NAO PNA 2001 Groisman et al Alexander et al SSTA 2004 Karl and Knight Yamamoto and Sakurai Zhai et al Stone et al Zhai et al ~ 123 E ~ 38 N % a 1 a 2 a 90 2a km a 1. 2 Zhang et al d 2 d 3 d 4 d 4 Jones et al Stone et 2 d

3 5 50 a d 2 1 d d 116 E 118 E 120 E 3 11 a ~ E Plummer et ~ E 12 al Manton et al Zhai et al ~ E a a 1a 116 E mm 95% d 3 d 3 d d a d d 95% d a % E 1c d d a % a 10 a 1960 N n 2 i = - n E 1b 7 x ^x j = x j +i j = N n = a j 6 ~ a

4 Fig E a 118 E b 120 E c 11 a The time sections of 11-yr running accumulated occurrence frequency of the extreme events of daily precipitation along a 116 E b 118 E and c 120 E from south to north 80 ~ Table 1 Regional averaged occurrence frequency of extreme events of precipitation in East China in each decade 2b f 3 d b ~ c 12 ~ d b 2e f c

5 5 50 a Fig. 2 a 1960 b 1970 c 1980 d 1990 e 2000 f / 10 a 90 mm mm a Locations of 90 stations in East China and spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity Contours show the 10-yr mean intensity of extreme daily precipitation with the units of mm and the shadings denote the magnitude higher than 90 mm of the extreme events of 1-d precipitation during b 1960s c 1970s d 1980s e 1990s and f 2000s d e

6 d 2f 3 d d 3 3 d 95% 3 d 3f 3 d 5 20 ~ a d d 60 m 3 50 a 3 d d Table 2 Regional averaged precipitation intensity of extreme events of precipitation in East China in each decade mm / / /1 3 d d 5 3 d b c d 4 3 d d 3 d d a 1970 Qian and 3b 1980 Lin d 3c d d 3d 10 a

7 5 50 a Fig a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e 3 d / 10 a a / 50 a 50 a f 180 mm mm Spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of 3-d precipitation in East China during a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s e 2000s and f spatial distribution of occurrence frequency 50 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of 3-d precipitation in East China during Contours show the mean intensity of extreme 3-d precipitation with the units of mm and the shadings denote the magnitude greater than 180 mm 3e d 3d e 50 a 3f b c 3 95% 3 d 50 a 50 a 23. 3

8 % 17 3 d 50 a a 3d a c 5 ~ 8 5 ~ a b e c a 3 d b d e c 10 a 3 d d e mm mm 2 3 d f 8 ~ a d b d a a e 4f mm d mm d 15 d mm d d

9 5 50 a Fig a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e / 10 a 300 mm mm f d Spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of precipitation process in East China during a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s and e 2000s Contours show the 10-yr mean intensity of extreme events of precipitation process with the units of mm and the shadings denote the magnitude bigger than 300 mm and f spatial distribution of mean rainy days units d of extreme events of precipitation process in East China a 20 a 20 a 3 d d

10 Fig a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e / 10 a 200 mm mm Spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of continuous rainy days in East China in a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s and e 2000s Contours show the 10- yr mean intensity of precipitation for the extreme events with the units of mm and the shadings denote the value greater than 200 mm 3 d a a a a

11 5 50 a Fig a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e d Distributions of mean rainy days of the extreme events of continuous rainy days in East China in a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s and e 2000s units d d 9 d 3 3 d 3 50 a

12 J GrADS Grid Analysis and Display System Groisman P Y Karl T R Easterling D R et al Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation Important indicators of climatic J change J. Climatic Change doi / A J Jones C Waliser D E Lau K M et al Global occurrences of extreme precipitation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation Observations J and predictability J. J Climate Karl T R Knight R W Secular trends of precipitation amount frequency and intensity in the USA J. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 79 J J Manton M J Della-Marta P M Haylock M R et al Trend in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and South J Pacific J. Int J Climatol Plummer N Salinger M J Nicholls N et al Changes in climate J extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the ~ 2008 J. twentieth century J. Climatic Change Qian W Lin X Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China J. Meteor Atmos Phys J Stone D A Weaver A J Zwiers F W Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity J. Atmos-Ocean doi J / Yamamoto R Sakurai Y Long-term intensification of extremely J heavy rainfall intensity in recent 100 years J. World Resource Review J Zhai P M Zhang X B Wan H et al Trends in total precipitation J. and frequency of daily precipitation extremes J. J Climate Zhang Y S Li T Wang B Decadal change of the spring snow J depth over the Tibetan Plateau The associated circulation and influence on the East Asian summer monsoon J. J Climate SSTA J J J J J J Alexander L V Zhang X Peterson T C et al Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation J. J Geophy Res 111 D doi /2005JD

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