QUATERNARY SC IENCES Vol. 27, No. 3 May, (2007) PREC IS 3 (, ;, ) Hadley PREC IS, B2,

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1 QUATERNARY SC IENCES Vol. 27, No. 3 May, (2007) PREC IS 3 (, ;, ) Hadley PREC IS, B2, (2080 s) : PREC IS, ;,, B2, 2080s,, ;,,, 2080s PREC IS SRES P467 A, IPCC 3 [ 1 ],, CO 2, 140a , 1000a : 100, ,, ,,, 50, [ 2, 3 ] ; [ 4 ],, 0179,, [ 5 ],, 5, 20 80,,,, [ 6, 7 ], CO 2, 215, 217, 12%, 25% ; [ 8 11 ] PREC IS,, 21, 5 6,, ; [ ],,, Hadley AGCM 2HadAM3H, PREC IS [ 15, 16 ], B s ( ) [ 17 ],, 2080 s : 37 E2mail: chennancyy@sina1com 3 ( : BA611B ) ( : CCSF ) , : E2mail: xuyl@ am i1ac1cn

2 3 : PREC IS PREC IS ( Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) Hadley GCM 2HadCM3, 50km 50km, 19 [ 18 ] /, / PREC IS ( ) SRES, 740 B2,, -, 24 : (106 20, ) (106 22, ) ( , ) (106 21, ) ( , ) (106 13, ) ( , ) (106 15, ) ( , ) ; ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) (105 40, ) (105 15, ) ( , ) (107 07, ) (106 29, ) ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) (105 43, ) ( , ) (106 07, ) (106 19, ), (12 2 ) (6 8 ),, B , a1, a2 a3 ; b1, b2 b3 Fig. 1 Comparison of simulated mean temperature with observation in baseline

3 a1, a2 a3 ; b1, b2 b3 Fig. 2 Comparison of simulated p recip itation with observation in baseline 30, PREC IS,,, ;,, ; PREC IS,,, 113 PREC IS ( 2),, 1 3mm /d; 115mm /d, 1mm /d ;, s ( 3), ( ),, , , ,, , 313 ;, 414,, 410, s, ( 4a) 2100,

4 3 : PREC IS s a1, a2 a3 ; b1, b2 b3 Fig. 3 Predicted spatial distribution of temperature change during 2080 s in N ingxia s ( a) ( b) Fig. 4 Predicted anomaly of ( a) annual, summer and winter mean temperature and ( b) summer mean maximum and winter mean m inimum temperature during 2080 s 414, 318, s, ;,, , s ( 4b), 2080 s 412 ;, s ( 5), 2080 s,, ;, ;

5 s ( a1) ( a2) ( a3) Fig. 5 Predicted spatial distribution of p recip itation change in N ingxia during 2080 s, B2, 2080 s s,, B2, 2080s,, 514%,, 216%, 412% s ( 1), 2080 s,,, ; s Fig. 6 Predicted annual, winter and summer mean and annual anomaly p recip itation during 2080 s s Table 1 Comparison of p redicted temperature and p recip itation during 2080 s and baseline 2080 s 2080 s

6 3 : PREC IS s,, 95% 2080 s,,,,,,, 2080 s, T T < 2 < T < 115, : 2080s, T >, T > ; > B2, 2080s 3, : (1) PREC IS, (2) ( ), 2080s, ; ; 2080s,, (3) 2080s, B2, 2080s (4),, PREC IS,,,,,, (B2), PREC IS Hadley,, (R e fe rence s) 1 IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third A ssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ,,. ( ) :., 2005, 1 (1) : 4 9 Q in Dahe, D ing Yihui, Su Jilan et al. A ssessment of climate and environment changes in China ( ) : Climate and environment changes in China and their p rojection. Advances in Clim ate Change Research, 2005, 1 (1) : 4 9 3,,. ( ) :., 2006, 2 ( 1) : 3 8 D ing Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu et al. report of climate change ( ) : National assessment Climate change in China and its future trend. Advances in Clim ate Change Research, 2006, 2 ( 1) : 3 8 4,.., 2005, 10 (4) : Tang Guoli, Ren Guoyu. Reanalysis of surface air temperature change of the last 100 years over China. Clim atic and Environm ental Research, 2005, 10 (4) : ,.., 2001, 21 (1) : L i Yanchun, L i Yanfang. variation in N ingxia in recent hundred years. 2001, 21 (1) : Period and jump analyses of climatic Plateau M eteorology, 6 Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, D ing Yihui et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. A dvances in A tm ospheric Sciences, 2001, 18 (6) : ,,.., 2003, 25 ( 2 ) : Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, D ing Yihui. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in Northwest China as simulated by a regional climate model. Journal of Glaciology and Geocrylogy, 2003, 25 (2) : , R ichard Jones. ECMW F PREC IS., 2004, 25 (1) : 5 9 Xu Yin1ong, reanalysis data over China. 2004, 25 (1) : 5 9 R ichard Jones. Validating PREC IS with ECMW F Chinese Journal of Agrom eteorofogy, 9,,. PREC IS SRES B2. ( ) Xu Yin1ong, Zhang Yong, L in Yihua et al. Validating PREC IS analyses on scenario of SRES B2 over China. B ulletin ( in press) Chinese Science , 2005, 28 (3) : Xu Yinlong. Analyses on scenario simulations of the 21 st century climate change in China. Journal of N anjing Institute of M eteorology, 2005, 28 (3) :

7 ,,. 21., 2005, 1 (2) : Xu Yinlong, Huang Xiaoying, Zhang Yong et al. Statistical analyses of climate change scenarios over China in the 21st century. Advances in Clim ate Change Research, 2005, 1 (2) : ,, , 2003, 8 ( 1) : Zhao Zongci, D ing Yihui, Xu Ying et al. Detection and p rediction of climate change for the 20 th and 21 st century due to human activity in Northwest China. Clim atic and Environm ental Research, 2003, 8 (1) : ,,. 21., 2003, 25 (3) : Xu Ying, D ing Yihui, Zhao Zongci. Scenario of temperature and precip itation changes in Northwest China due to human activity in the 21 st century. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2003, 25 (3) : ,,. 21., 2003, 8 (1) : Xu Ying, D ing Yihui, Zhao Zongci et al. A scenario of seasonal climate change of the 21st century in Northwest China. Clim atic and Environm ental Research, 2003, 8 (1) : Johns T C, Carnell R E, Crossley J F et al. The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean2atmosphere GCM: Model description, spinup and validation. C lim ate D ynam ics, 1997, 13: Hadson D A, Jones R G. Regional Climate Model Simulations of Present2day and Future Climates of Southern Africa. Hadley Centre Technical Note 39, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Met Office, B racknell, U. K Nakicenovic N, A lcamo G, Davis G de V ries et al. Special Report on Em issions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C et al. Generating H igh Resolution Climate Change Scenations U sing PREC IS. Met office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, S IM ULAT IO N O F CL IM ATE CHANGE SCENAR IO D UR ING IN N INGX IA BY PREC IS Chen Nan Xu Yinlong Chen Xiaoguang Yang Kan Zhang Yong ( Key Laboratory of M eteorological D isaster P reventing and Reducing of N ingxia, Yinchuan ; A grom eteorology Institute, Chinese Academ y of A gricultural Sciences, B eijing ) Abstract B y the simulation of a regional climate model ( PREC IS) driven by the higher2resolution HadAM3H obtained from the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom and based on data of the baseline ( ), changes in surface air temperature and p recip itation under SRES B2 scenario of in N ingxia Province are p redicted. Results show that PREC IS can rep roduce well the spatial distribution of surface air temperature in N ingxia. The sim ulation of maxim um temperature in summ er is better p redicted than that of m inimum temperature in w inter. The spatial distribution of south2to2north increase in p recip itation in the region can also be sim ulated by PREC IS, while the p recip itation simulation in summer is much better than that for the annual mean and in winter. During , there m ight be a significant warm ing either in annual, or in summer and winter. Greater warm ing is simulated in northern and southern N ingxia. Increase in mean and maximum temperature in summer m ight be significantly larger than in w inter. General increase of p recip itation is sim ulated in N ingxia. But a decadal decreasing trend of p recip itation has been also p redicted. Significant variability in temperature and p recip itation p redicted m ight indicate more frequent occurrence of som e disaster events, e. g. drought and flood. In general speaking, the PREC IS climate model system has higher ability on sim ulating of temperature in N ingxia Province, while the sim ulating of p recip itation is basically exactable. Hence the model would objectively reflect future clim atic change scene of N ingxia. On the other hand, we should note that future climate scene would have large incertitude because factors influencing climate change are extremely comp lex and the model is not yet perfect, for examp le, there has been only B2 SRES scenario and the effect of increasing greenhouse gas hasnπt been considered. More work sould be done in the future. Key words PREC IS, SRES, climate change scenarios, N ingxia

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005