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1 ,, 1635, 1641, :?,,,,, ,, ,, 1635, 1636, (Cologne) 1639, 1641, (B randenburg), 1641, 1644, , ( ) (M nster) Peter L imm, The Thirty Years W ar (London and New York: Longman, 1984), pp ; C1 V1 W edgwood, The Thirty YearsW ar (New York Review Books, 2005), Chap 11; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar (London, Boston: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 2002), p1 177; : ( ) ( ),, 1998, /3 ( 11 ), Quarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 52

2 ,,,,,,,? :??,,,,,,, ( the inefficiency puzzle of war),,,,,,,, : (, 5 ), 1957, 480 ; (, 5 ),, 1964, 2242,,, James D1 Fearon, Rational Exp lanations for W ar, International O rganization, Vol1 49, No1 3, 1995, pp : James D. Fearon, Rational Ex2 p lanations forw ar ; Robert Powell, W ar A s A Comm itment Problem, International O rganization, Vol1 60, 2006, pp R. Harrison W agner, Bargaining and W ar, Am erican Journal of Political Sci2 ence, Vol1 44, No1 3, 2000, pp ; Robert Powell, Bargaining and Learning W hile Fighting, A2 m erican Journal of Political Science, Vol1 48, No1 2, 2004, pp

3 ??, (Donald W ittman),,,,, U t x ( s) U t y ( s) X Y t s, U t x (w ) U t y (w ) X Y,, S 3, U t x ( s 3 ) Ε U t y (w ), U t y ( s 3 ) Ε U t y (w ),,,,, :, (1) (2) (3),,,,,, Donald W ittman, How A W ar Ends: A RationalModel App roach, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol1 23, No1 4, 1979, pp ,,,,, 54

4 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, Robert O sgood, L im ited W ar: The Challenge to Am erican S trategy (Chicago: Univer2 sity of Chicago Press, 1957), pp1 1 2; Dan Reiter, Exp loring the Bargaining Model of W ar, Perspectives on Politics, Vol1 1, No1 1, 2003, pp , at 28.,, 30 55

5 ,,,,,, 20 90, :,, 21,,, (Har2 risw agner) (Rubinstein),, A B 1 : (1) A ( x, 1 - x) ; (2) B ; (3) B,, x 1 - x; (4) B, B (1 - y, y) ; (5) B, A ; (6) A, B, ; (7) A,,, (1) - (3) A B A, B,, A : 56 Powell, 2000 Robert Powell, Bargaining and Learning W hile Fighting pp Harrison W agner, Bargaining and W ar ,,,,, : ( ),, 2006, 5

6 x = 1 - B 1 - A, y = 1 - A B 1 - A B,,,, A x,, B :, 1 - x;, (, ), A B,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : ( ), 2005,, 1982 Rubi2 Harrison W agner, Bargaining and W ar, p nstein,, A riel Rubinstein, Perfect Equilibrium in a Bar2 gaining Model, Econom etrica, Vol1 50, pp Harrison W agner, Bargaining and W ar, p

7 , 1,,,,,,, 1 2,,,, - :,,,, (Robert Powell),,,,,, (B ranislav L. Slantchev), 1 2, 2 2 :, 1,, 58, B, A ; A C A B C B, A C B, B 1 - C B,, Eric Rasmusen, Gam es and Inform a2 tion (Malden: B lackwell Publishers, 2001), pp Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1999). Robert Powell, Bargaining and Learning W hile Fighting, pp , specially at 348.

8 ,,,,,,, (Darren Filson) ( Suzanne W erner),,,,,,,,,,,, ( J. Maynard Sm ith) :, B ranislav L.,, Slantchev, The Princip le of Convergence in W artime Negotiations, The Am erican Po2 litical Science Review, Vol1 97, No1 4, 2003, pp Darren Filson and Suzanne W erner, A Bargaining Model of W ar and Peace: Anticipating The Onset, Duration, and Outcome of W ar, Am erican Journal of Political Science, Vol1 46, No1 4, 2002, pp J. Maynard Sm ith, The Theory of Games and Evolution In Animal Conflicts, Journal of Theoretical B iology, Vol1 47, 1974, pp J. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982) Maynard Sm ith, Evolution and the Theory of Gam es 59

9 V 1, V 2 > 0 t, : ( )?,,, : (0, v b ) ( v a - c a, - c b ) ( - 2c a, v b - 2c b ) ( v a - 3 c, - 3c b ) ( - nc a, v b - nc b ) - 1,,,,,,, c a, c b,, = 1 F t ( t) t, i L t ( t) t, i : (1) F i ( t) > F i ( ), > t, (2) L i ( t) >L i ( ), > t, (3) F i ( t) >L i ( t), (2), F i ( t) >L i ( ), > t, (4) v a > c a, v b > c b,, F i ( t + 1) >L i ( t),,, : ( ),, 2002,

10 ,,, (5) L i (0) >L i ( + ),,,,,, : A, B, A, B,, : A B, -, A B, R a, R b, 0 0,,, R a = R b = 20, v a = v b = 20, c a = 4, v b = 3 :,,, A p a, 1 - p a ; B p b, 1 - p b,,,, A, : n, A : - nc a ; n + 2, A : - ( n + 2) c a ; A n, : - nc a = p b [ - ( n + 2) c a ] + (1 - p b ) x[ v a - ( n + 1) c a ] : p 3 b = v a - c a v a + c a : p 3 a = v b - c b v b + c b : A, B, A, B,,,,, 61

11 (0, 20) (16, - 3) ( - 8, 14) (8, - 9) ( - 16, 8) (0, - 15) ( - 24, 2) - 2,, A,, A,, B, 2, - 15, A B,,, A, - 16, - 24, B A, B, A B,,, A,, A, B,, A, B,, A = 28,, A, B,,, : R a C a > R b,, A, B C b,, 62

12 R a C a < R b,, A, B C b : (1),, ; ; (2), (3),,,,,,,,,,, : A, B,,,,,,, 1645, 1645,,,,,,,,,,, 63

13 ,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, 64, B ranislav L. Slantchev, How Initiators End Their W ars: The Duration of W arfare And The Term s of Peace, Am erican Journal of Political Science, Vol1 48, No1 4, 2004, pp ; Donald W ittman, How A W ar Ends

14 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : (1),,,,, 65

15 ,,, (2),,,,,,,, (3),,,,,,, ,,,, :,,, : ( ), 2006, 2 ; A lexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case S tudies and Theory Developm ent in the Social Sciences (Cambridge: M IT Press, 2005), Chap. 8 :, 82 66

16 ( ) ( ) 1618, 1617, ( ), 1618,,,,,,,,, , , 4,, 1618, (Lusatia) ( Silesia) (Upper Austria), 1619, (Moravia) (Lower Austria) ,,, , 1619, 3, ( Tuscany) (Lombardy) 6 10, (Mansfeld),,, : ( ),, 1981, 269 : ( ), Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar (London, Boston: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 2002), p1 44 Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar (London, Boston: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 2002), pp Ibid, pp

17 1619 8,, ( Frederick) 10 8,, 12 5, 215, (Maxim ilian ),, (Ambrosio Sp nola) 2, , (W hite Mountain),,,,,,,,,, , ( Stadtlohn),,, ( ) ( ), (Christian IV ),, , 2, ( Elbe) Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty YearsW ar(new York Review Books, 2005), pp ; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, p1 61. Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp

18 (Hameln),, ( Tilly), (W allenstein), 3,,, (Magde2 burg) (Halberstadt), , - - (Lutter2am2 Barenberg),,, ( ) 1627, (Mecklenburg) ( Pomerania) (Jutland),,,,,, ,,,, 1624, ( Gustavus Adolphus),,, Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp Ibid, pp Ibid, pp :,

19 ,,,, ( Stral2 sund),,,,,,,,,, , :,,,,, 1629 ( Edict of Restitution),, 1552, ( ecclesiastical p rinces), 1555, 1555,,, Peter L imm, The Thirty Years W ar, pp Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp ; :, 275,,,, 148

20 , ( ) ( ) 1629,, , ( ), 7, ,,,,, , (Magdeburg),,,,,, 9, , , (B reiten2 feld),,, , (Rain),,, Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp : ( ), , Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp ,,,,,,,, : ( ), 1999,

21 , 5 17,,,,,, ,, 7,,,,,,,, , (L tzen),,,,,,, ,,,, , 72,, : ( ), 218 ; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, p1130;, B. H. L iddell Hart, S trategy (New York: Penguin Books USA Inc., 1991 /1967), pp Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty Years W ar, pp pp C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty YearsW ar, pp ; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1,

22 (N rdlingen) 313, 215, 112, ( Gustav Horn) 4000,, 11 ( Pirna), , ( the Peace of Prague),,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ( ),,,,,, : ( ), 220 ; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp ; CharlesW. Kegley, Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, Exorcising the Ghost of W estphalia ( N. J. : Prentice Hall, 2002), p177 Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp1154; Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Gregory A. Ray2 mond, Exorcising the Ghost of W estphalia, pp

23 ,,,,,, ,,,,, 1643,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1635,, ,, 74 : ( ), 223 :, 279 Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp Ibid., pp

24 1635,,,,,,,, 1637,,, ,, 3,,,, 1641,,,,,,, , ( ),,, 1640, (Regensburg),,,, 1641, (Lennart Torstensson), ,, 5, 5, 12,, Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp :, 279 ; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp

25 ,, 1640, (Catalonia),,, 1643,,, 1642,,, 1643, (Jules Mazarin),, ,,, ,, ( Jankov),,, :, 8, (A llerheim),, 9,,, 11 29, Trautmansdorff 76 :, ; Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp1169; C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty Years W ar, pp : 199 pp ( ),, 1985, 198 Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp ; C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty YearsW ar,

26 (M nster), Trautmansdorff,,, 1645,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 1,,, ( ),,, , Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty YearsWar, pp ,, : : ( ) ; Geof2 frey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar1; Peter L imm, The Thirty YearsW ar; C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty Years W ar1; CharlesW. Kegley, Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, Exorcising the Ghost of W estphalia 77

27 ,,, , , :,,, , ,, ,,,, ,,,, 1634

28 ,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,, 1634,,,,,,,, ,,,,, 79

29 8,,, 9,, 1659,,,, 1645,,,,,,,,,, 80 Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, pp ,, , 5 C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty Years W ar1, pp , , 100,, 10 12, , Geoffrey Parker, The Thirty Years W ar, p1178; C. V. W edgwood, The Thirty Years W ar1, chap111 : (, ),, 2003, ; : (,, ), 2003, ; :,, 1999, 20 21

30 , ( ) 1833 ( ), 1833, (W. J. Nap ier) ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( John Francis Davis),,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,, : ( ), ; : (, ), : ( ),

31 :, ;, ,, , 8,,, 3 27, ( G. Elliot),,,,, 6 3, , 237, ,, , ,, , (James John Gordon B remer) ,, (John Henry Temp le Palmerston) ,,,,,,,,,, :,, 2005, :, : : ( ) ( ),, 1993, : ( ) ( ), 2000,

32 ,, , ( ),,, 9,,,,,, :,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, : 8 6,,, 8 17,,,, : ( ), 369 :, ; : (,, ), ( ), 676 :, 135 : : ( ), ( ), 861 :,

33 ,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,, 8 3, 8 9,,,,,,, ( ) :,,,?,,,,,,,,?,,,,? 84 (, 1 ), (, 1 ), :, ( ),, 1986, 142 ( ), 140 :, 167 (, 1 ), 513

34 ,,, : (1),, ; (2), (,, ),, ; (3),, ( ),,,,, ;,,, ( ),, ,,,, ,,, ; ;,,,,,, 1 26 : ( ),, 1995, 34 : : ( ),

35 ,, ,, 2 25,,,, 2 27,, 3 2,, 3 3,, 3 5,,,,,,,,,, , ,, , :,, 4 14,, 4 5, 117,, ,, 22,, 25,, 26,,,, 86 :, :, 261,,,, :,, 2, : (, ), :, ,,,,,,,

36 ( ) 1841,, ( ), 4 30,,, (Henry Pot2 tinger) 8 10,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,, 26,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,, 9 5,, , 10 1,,,, :,, 307 :, : ( ), ,,, 87

37 2 27, 10 10,,,, ,,,, 10 18,, 112,, , 4,, 4, 4, 3 13,, 3 15,, 17,, 1115, 212, 16415,,,,,,,, 160, ,, ,, 2100 ( 1600 ),,,, 88 :, , 3,, :, 383 :, ; : (,, ), : ( 1 ),, 1957, 30 33, 2500, :,

38 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, , :, ; (1), (2),,, ; (3), ; ( 4), ; (5),,, ; ( 6),,, ; ( 7),, ; ; (8) ( 9),, ; (10),,,, ( ), 3 28,,,, :, (, 4 ), , ( ),, 1987, 423 :,

39 ,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, , 5 28,, 6 16,,, 2, 25, 6 19, : ( ), 34,,,,,, 90

40 ,,,, 7, 21,,,, 39, 130, ,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,, 8 13,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, : ( ), 5, 480,, 5, 2242 : ( 6 ), 1992, 165 : (, ),

41 ( ), :,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : : ( ), 215 (, 5 ), ,,, 92

42 , 40,,, (, ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,, 2005, B ranislav L. Slantchev, The Princip le of Convergence In W artime Negotiations, The Am erican Political Science Review, Vol197, No14, 2003, pp :,

43 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 94 Darren Filson, Suzanne W erner, A Bargaining Model of W ar And Peace: Anticipating The Onset, Duration And Outcome of W ar,. Am erican Journal of Political Science, Vol146, No14, 2002, pp

44 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ; ( ),,,,,,,,, 95

45 ,,,,,,,,?,?,,,,,,,, 96 Dan Reiter. Dan Reiter, Ex2 p loring The Bargaining Model of W ar, Perspectives on Politics, Vol11, No11, 2003, pp127 43

46 1982, , , 2002 : Social Transform ation in Contem porary China ( co - editor., 2007) : tang@p itt. edu 2004, 2007 : daiy04@mails. tsinghua. edu. cn 1992, 1995, 2002 : xingyue@mail. tsinghua. edu. cn 1992, 1998, 2006 (2001 ) (, 2004 ) : zhoufangyin@ gmail. com : riqiangwu@ yahoo. com. cn 1987, 2004, 2007 : li_xuecn@ yahoo. com. cn 2004, 2006 : liufeng00@mail. nankai. edu. cn

( Klaus Knoor),,,, :,, ( Robert Keohane) (Auguste Com te),,,,, ( ),,, (A lexander W endt),,,, :,90 : ( ),, 2001, 411 :, : ( ), 2004, ,,,, fait s

3,,, ;,,,,,, ( ),,, 3 5-8,, :,, :,, 2001 2007 /3 ( 11), 130154 Quarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 130 ( Klaus Knoor),,,, :,, ( Robert Keohane) (Auguste Com te),,,,, ( ),,, (A lexander W endt),,,,