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1 % 66% C A doi /j.issn X X

2 % 4 5% 16

3 Bloom 5 GMM ~ Lee Mason

4 4. World Development Indicators WDI 15~ ~ N μ = 1 N i = 1 x i 1 18

5 209 N σ = 1 N i = 1 ( x i - μ) 2 = σ μ 100% 2 3 N x i i μ σ % 5% 5% 1960~ % 43 17% % HUN CZE DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK GRD DMA UKR BRB BGR FIN EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR ROU EMU EST PRT GUY GEO LTU SVN KNA BIH POL ECS URY NOR SVK FRA VCT MNE JPN CHE BMU CHI GRC % 95% % 5% % 95% % 19

16 10% 208-0.53 1 2 38 % HUN DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK GRD UKR BRB BGR FIN 2.2742 3.2793 3.4274 4.1299 4.2559 4.4635 4.6717 4.8295 4.8355 5.2321 5.3215 5.3942 5.6095 0.7446 1.4628 0.3594 0.3994 0.

6 16 10% % HUN DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK GRD UKR BRB BGR FIN EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR EMU EST PRT GUY GEO LTU SVN BIH POL ECS URY NOR SVK FRA VCT MNE JPN CHE CHI GRC ~ %

209 5% 5 39 10% 31 79.49% 211 0.89 NG.μ = 0.6417 TP. - 0.3339 R 2 = 0.7985 4 0.80 TP. NG.μ 2 4. 3 31 15~64 % HUN DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK UKR BGR FIN EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR 2.2742 3.2793 3.4274 4.

7 209 5% % % NG.μ = TP R 2 = TP. NG.μ ~64 % HUN DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK UKR BGR FIN EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR ~64 μ ~ EMU EST PRT GEO LTU SVN POL ECS URY NOR FRA JPN CHE CHI GRC ~64 μ ~

15~64 3 3 10%31 15~64 3 2.43% 5% 8 2.25% 31 15~64 52 3 65.96% 95% 65.52 66.40 101 11 10% 9 5%8 66.04% 95% 65.28 66.

8 15~ %31 15~ % 5% % 31 15~ % 95% % 9 5% % 95% % 5 10% ~ AS.μ = TP R 2 = ~64 AS.μ TP ~64 15~64 5%8 15~ % 95%

9 209 1 = ( - ) 6 15~ α = 100% 7 4 GDP % GDP GDP GDP GDP α.dn. μ α.up. μ α.dn. μ α.up. μ POL HUN SVK MDA ECA BRB CZE ECS DEU RUS SVN EUU JPN ~2011 2% %89 α.up.μ%

10 4 5 2% 10% 5 10%4 1. J J

11 J J David Bloom David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla. The Demographic Dividend A New Perspective on the Economic Con sequences of Population ChangeM. California RAND J J S J J Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason. What is the Demographic Dividend?J. Finance and Development J J A Study on Relative Stationary Population and Potential Demographic Dividend Calculation HE Lian MA Yan-chun Zhuhai College Jilin University Zhuhai Guangdong China Abstract Relative stationary population refers to the populations of some countries remain relatively sta tionary in real world. Comparing with other countries the populations of this type of countries change only a few. Their characteristics are similar to those in stationary population including natural growth rate ap proaches to 0 sex and age structure remains stable and so on. Especially the proportion of the population ages 15 to 64 approaches to 66%. As this age structure is set to be a frame of reference the potential demo graphic dividend of different countries can be calculated precisely. Empirical analysis also proves that it is workable to use relative stationary population instead of standard population in calculating potential demo graphic dividend. Key Words Relative Stationary Population Potential Demographic Dividend Stationary Population Demo graphic Dividend 25

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A01 國籍 ( 家 ) 代碼表代碼標準用字代碼標準用字 GIB GIN GLP GMB GNB GNO GRC GRD GRL GTM GUF GUM GUY HKG HMD HND HRV HTI HUN IDN IMN IND IOT IRL IRN IRQ IS A01 國籍 ( 家 ) 代碼表代碼標準用字代碼標準用字 ABW AFG AGO AIA ALA ALB AND ANT ARE ARG ARM ASM ATA ATF ATG AUS AUT AZE BDI BEL BEN BFA BGD BGR BHR BHS BIH BLR BLZ BMU BOL BRA BRB BRN BTN BVT BWA CAF CAN CCK