中國的科學與中國的公民：大陸研究在台灣的困境\\

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2 190 cutting edge Tun-jen Cheng, Chi Huang, and Samuel S.G. Wu, eds., Inherited Rivalry (Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner, 1995) 2 Gregory Henderson, Richard Ned Lebow, and John G. Stoessinger, eds., Divided Nations in a Divided World (New York: David McKay, 1974) Yu-Shan Wu, The Collapse of the Bipolar System and Mainland China's Foreign

3 Policy, Issues and Studies, vol. 29, no. 7 (July 1993), pp Lowell Dittmer, The Chinese Mini-Triangle : An Analysis of United States Policy Toward China and Taiwan, working paper, Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations, Issues and Studies, vol. 32, no. 10 (October 1996), pp

4 192 Richard Nixon Henry Kissinger pivot Lowell Dittmer The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis 16 wing 17 tilting 16 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis, World Politics, vol. 33, no. 4 (July 1981), pp

5 romantic triangle 18 menage à trois marriage unite veto 19 outcast partner 20 desirability Lowell Dittmer Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle : A Critical Review, in Ilpyo ng J. Kim, ed., The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union (New York: Paragon House Publisher, 1987), p. 34 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elemental Game-Theoretical Analysis 20 Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations

7 Pivot Friend Partner Wing Enemy Outcast Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei- Washington-Beijing Relations, p Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994)

8 unintending pivot 22

9 Otto von Bismarck Wilhelm I, Frederick III, Wilhelm II,

10 the Second Reich sated 25 French revanchism Stephen J. Lee, Aspects of European History: (London: Routledge, 1982), p. 134.

11 Dreikaiserbund 28 German Kaiser Austrian Emperor Russian Tsar 29 Count Harry Arnim Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna (New York: Harper & Row, 1973), p D. G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: (London: Longman, 1992), p Peter Pulzer, Germany: (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), p Gordon A. Craig, Germany (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 105

12 200 menage à trois Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 165

13 N.Y. Danilevskii Russia and Europe Nikolai Ignatiev

14 202 Count Gyula Andrássy Aleksandr Gorchakov Reichstadt Nikolai Ignatiev Treaty of San Stefano 33 honest broker 34 The Dual Alliance Peter Pulzer, Germany: , p Fritz Stern, Gold and Iron (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1977), p

15 junior partner Otto Pflanze, Bismarck and the Development of Germany (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963), p Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna, pp Fritz Stern, Gold and Iron, p D.G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: , p Nicholas Der Bagdasarian, The Austro-German Rapprochement, : From the Battle of Sedan to the Dual Alliance (Cranbury, New Jersey: Associated University Presses, 1976), p Stephen J. Lee, Aspects of European History, p. 137.

16 W. N. Medlicott and Dorothy K. Coveney, eds., Bismarck and Europe (London: Edward Arnold, 1977), p Bleichroder D.G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: (London: Longman, 1992), p Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 164.

17 Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna, pp Count Leo von Caprivi ( )Prince Chlodwig-Hohenlohe ( )Prince Berhard von Bulow ( ) Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg ( ) 47 Francis Joseph

18 ( ) (1875-) (1879) (1881, 1884) (1890) (1904) 48 senior partner junior partner

19 (1887)

20 John W. Garver, China s Decision for Rapprochement with the United States, (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1982).

21 Mikhail Gorbachev President Ronald Reagan Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations, pp

22 210

23 Yu-Shan Wu, The Collapse of the Soviet Union: A Crises and Sequences Approach, Political Science Review, no. 4 (December 1992), pp Yu-Shan Wu, The Collapse of the Bipolar System and Mainland China s Foreign Policy, Issues and Studies, vol. 29, no. 7 (July 1993), pp exogenous factors endogenous factors

24 Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown, 1979), p. 165, 712

25 interim agreement 58 peace will not be disturbed from our side Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 165

26 214 TMD tilting 61

28 216 tilting policy 62 Count Andrássy D.G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: , p Nicholas Der Bagdasarian, The Astro-German Rapprochement, : From the Battle of Sedan to the Dual Alliance, p. 300.

29 Woodrow Wilson Fourteen Points E.H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis: (New York: Harper & Row, 1946)David A. Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993) 65 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, ch

30 218 President James E. Carter

31 George W. Bush William J. Clinton 70 F delink Strobe Talbott, Post-Victory Blues, Foreign Affairs, vol. 71, no. 1 (1991/1992), p Alan Tonelson, Prudence or Inertia? The Bush Administration s Foreign Policy, Current History, vol. 90, no. 558 (1991), pp Far Eastern Economic Review, 19 November 1992, p

32 TMD 74 Taiwan Security Enhancement Act TMD An Interview With China s Zhu Rongji, The Wall Sreet Journal, April 6, 1999, p. A23

33 WBT W B T W T Wt WtBT T B W B Wb WbBT Wb B T W Wt Wb W Wt W Wb Wb W Wt B T

34 222 sated 75 75

35 WTO Robert G. Sutter, The Taiwan Crisis of and U.S. Domestic Politics, Conference on the Security Relationship Between the U.S. and Taiwan: After the March 1996 Mini-Crisis

36 224 Unintending Pivot: The US Between Taipei and Beijing Yu-Shan Wu Abstract This paper examines the literature on strategic triangle and the pivot role, compares German diplomacy under Otto von Bismarck of and the China policy of the US in the 1990s as two unintending pivots, and analyzes the cause of tilting between wings by unintending pivots. We find sated powers are more interested in a menage à trios than a romantic triangle. When such powers take the role of a pivot, the chances are that they are unintending pivots. Secondly, for unintending pivots tilting between wings is determined not by elite strategic thinking, but by domestic politics. In the case of the US China policy, Washington s tilt towards either Taipei or Beijing is determined by the balance of power between idealism and realism, which in turn is synchronized with the presidential electoral cycles. Whenever presidential elections approach, or the opposition candidate defeats the incumbent (or candidate from the incumbent party), then idealism surges and Washington tilts towards Taipei. During the inter-election periods, however, realism rules and Washington tilts towards Beijing. Finally, compared with intending pivots, unintending pivots are less committed to their role in the strategic triangle, and are more prone to make structural tilts towards one wing, thus transforming a romantic triangle to a marriage. Key words: strategic triangle, pivot, wing, China policy, Bismarck, romantic triangle

第二章影響中共與越南關係發展的主要原因

第二章影響中共與越南關係發展的主要原因 1 2280 2 7868.58 2002 Kenneth 3 Waltz James Rosenau pre-theory idiosyncratic role governmental societal systemic 4 Joshua S. Goldstein International Relation 5 1950 1 1964 6 1 2 1998 1 421 3 Kenneth N.