CDM Potential in China SONG Yanqin Centre for Renewable Energy Development March 15, 2006, Tokyo
Opportunity and Challenge China does not have obligation on GHG emissions under Kyoto. But China has been very active in utilizing renewable energy and improving energy efficiency and encouraging energy conservation. China has largest inventory of emission reducing project options.
GHG Emission Status in China China Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2000 Gas C02 CH4 N20 PFC HFC SF6 TOTAL MtC* 948.0 212.4 176.0 1.4 10.1 0.9 1348.8 Rank Source: World Resources Institute's Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT), 2005 Percent of World Total 14.54 13.2 19.12 5.4 16.19 7.8 14.74 *All emissions are expressed in million metric tons of carbon (or CO2) equivalents using 100 year global warming potentials found in the IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996). 3 1 1 7 2 4 2
Updated Information on the Project Approval (Till Feb 15, 06) SenterNovem EcoSecurities Group Ltd First Carbon Fund Itd. Austrian JI/CDM Programme, Kommunalkredit Public Consulting Gmbh International Bank for Reconstruction and Development EcoSecurities Group Ltd. Rabobank HFC-23 JMD Greenhouse-Gas Reduction Co.Ltd
Updated Information on the Project Approval (Till Feb 15, 06) HFC-23 30MW JMD Greenhouse-Gas Reduction Co.Ltd Tokyo Electric Power Company HFC-23 Natsource Europe Limited Trading Emission Limited Natsource Europe Limited HFC23 World Bank World Bank HFC23 100.5MW Endesa 49.3MW Endesa 45.05 Endesa
Distribution of the approved technology Type of Technology No of projects approved Volume of CER per year Wind farm 8 1,058,142 HFC23 4 35,597,769 Landfill gas for power 3 633,032 Small hydro 2 367,780 Waste heat recovery and utilization 1 107,116 Total 18 37,763,839
Distribution of the approved technology by number Wind farm HFC23 Landfill gas for power Small hydro Waste heat recovery and utilization
Distribution of the approved technology by CERs HFC23 Wind farm Landfill gas for power Small hydro Waste heat recovery and utilization
Market Potential in 3 Priority Areas in China Preconditions: 50% of the resource potential developed into CDM project Total mitigation potential Accumulation from 2006 to 2010 (million ton) Accumulation from 2011 to 2020 (million ton) RE 574 1,933 EE 312 1,450 CMM 56 1,247 Total 942 4,630
Market Potential in 3 Priority Areas in China Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency 312 56 CMM/CBM 1,247 1,933 CMM/CBM 574 1,450 Accumulation till 2010 Accumulation till 2020
Renewable Energy In 2003 total primary energy consumption reached 1.68 billion tce This could reach 3 billion tce by 2020 Installed generation capacity could reach 900+ GW RE can play a key role Other RE include geothermal, ocean, landfill Type Wind Hydro Biomass Biogas Biofuels Solar PV SWH Resource Potential 250GW Onshore 750 GW Offshore 390 GW (125 GW small) 500 million tce/year 1700 Bn tce / year Current Status 40 wind farms 570 MW 90 GW (30 GW small) 4.5 Bn m 3 1900 MW 400,000 t 50MW PV 52 million m 2 2020 Target 30 GW 70-80 GW small hydro 25 Bn m 3 30GW 1mt (near term) 2 GW PV 270 million m 2
Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency Mitigation Potential in Energy Conservation Sector Energy consumption for per unit product in China is higher than world level Thermal power, higher by 22% Energy consumption for steel making higher by 21% Energy consumption for cement making higher by 45% Energy consumption for buildings higher by 2-3 times Total energy efficiency is 32%, lower than world level by 10% Energy conservation potential till 2010 is about 1.75 B toe Total mitigation potentials till 2010 is about 0.625 Bt CO2e Energy conservation potential till 2020 is about 8.2 B toe Total mitigation potentials till 2020 is about 2.9 Bt CO2e
CMM/CBM Mine gas Number of mines Total gas Max. gas classification inflow Number % m 3 /min % (m 3 /min) Total 634 9418 Coal-gas outburst 130 21 3757 40 430 Highly 184 29 4416 47 365 gaseous Low methane 320 50 1245 13 52
Lessons Learnt Capacity building is still in need in: 1. Project identification 2. Project development, PDD preparation and validation 3. Methodology development in energy efficiency sector Actions should be taken in: 1. Training activities for various stakeholders in provincial level 2. Baseline setup in sector to enhance the preparation of the PDD and reduce overlap of the efforts 3. Establish local DOE to enhance the validation
Information will be available from the official website below http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn
Contact Information Song Yanqin Center for Renewable Energy Development Tele: 86-10-63908475 Fax: 86-10-63908468 Email: yq_song@263.net