祁神军, 张云波 ( 华侨大学土木工程学院 ; 建设管理与房地产研究所, 福建厦门 361021) - 1995 ~ 2009 Kaya 4 F426 X502 A 1001-8409 2013 06-0039 - 05 Research on the Influencing Factors and Reduction Strategies of Carbon Emission of Construction Industry in China QI Shen-jun ZHANG Yun-bo College of Civil Engineering Project Management and Real Estate Lab Huaqiao University Xiamen 361021 Abstract This paper analysis the economic input-output through to set up the model of the intensity of carbon emission of e- conomic sectors based on their energy consumption and the model of carbon footprint of construction industry correspondingly the distribution structure of its carbon emissions was also analyzed from 1995 to 2009. And then decomposition model of construction carbon emission was set up based on Kaya Model by which the influencing factors of construction carbon emission was broken into four types including effect of energy structure effect of energy intensity effect of industrial-scale and effect of economic output the situation and the trend of construction carbon emission was empirical analyzed to propose the reduction strategies. The result shows that reduction of the intensity of the energy structure and the industrial-scale energy was the key to reduction carbon emission for construction sector. Key words carbon emissions factor decomposition model of carbon emissions model of carbon emissions footprint 1 IPCC 2007 40% 36% CO 2 2 3-4 1 5 2007 2295. 1MtCO 2 - eq 29. 79% Kaya 2012-06 - 22 国家自然科学基金项目 ( 51148010) ; 福建省青年自然科学基金项目 ( 2012J05095) ; 华侨大学国家自然科学基金培育计划专项 ( JB - ZR1231) 祁神军 ( 1982 - ), 男, 湖北宣恩人, 博士 副教授, 研究方向为低碳建筑 ; 张云波 ( 1963 - ), 男, 福建惠安人, 博士 教授, 研究方向为低碳建筑 39
软科学 2013 年 6 月 第 27 卷 第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) 0 i j C 6 ~ ij = { C i i = j 5 2 T - T = C B珔 6 Kaya 4 FU F ^U 1995 ~ TFC 2009 TFC n n = T F ^U 7 5 2 2. 1 研究范围界定 Kaya 1 CO 2 = CO 2 PE PE S S CGDP CGDP 8 8 CO 2 PE 9 S CGDP GDP CO 2 /PE PE /S S /CGDP 2 2. 4 数据来源与处理 1 9 1995 ~ 2007 2. 2 基于能源消耗的产业碳排放强度 E ik i k 26 1 SC k CO 2 1 RC ik i k SE ik SE ik = E ik SC ik 1 i k CO 2 TC ik = SE ik RC ik 2 i CO 2 TC i P3 P16 TC i = Σ 9 RC ik k = 1 3 P1 P14 P2 P15 P4 P5 P17 P18 2. 3 产业碳足迹模型 1 P6 P19 A = a ij n n a ij j i P7 P20 B P8 P21 2 P9 P22 t CO 2 - eq /i P10 P23 C i C i = TC i /X i 4 P11 P24 3 P12 P25 1 P13 P26 40
2 CO 2 kg 39783. 495 1926. 915 1457. 918 0. 686kg / 4 kg 0. 680 tc /tec 0. 748 tc / 3 tec 0. 726 tc /tec 0. 725tC 9 2 0. 714kg /kg 0. 9 kg /kg 0. 287 kg / 2 0. 686 0. 971 1. 429 1. 471 1. 471 1. 457 1. 429 1. 143 1. 229 0. 725 0. 855 0. 540 0. 554 0. 571 0. 592 0. 619 0. 427 0. 275 tce /10 4 m 3 tce /10 4 kw h tce /t tc /tec CO 2 44 /12 3 10 7 4 3. 1 历年碳排放总量计算与分析 3.5 1 1 ~ 3 3 1995 ~ 2009 2.5 1 2 2 1995 CO 2 1 建筑业直接温室气体排放量 t-eqco2 建筑业隐含温室气体排放量 t-eqco2 1.5 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1995 年度 106. 18% 2009 86. 753 CO 2 - eq 10 图 1 建筑业直接碳排放趋势 10 22 14 12 11 2 24 6 1 10 9 2.5 2.25 2 1.75 26 3 1.5 10 11 1.25 91. 440% 22 1 1994 1996 1998 2000 14 12 年度 11 4 4 2002 2004 2006 70. 750% 10 图 2 建筑业隐含碳排放趋势 4 9 1995 7 1995 0. 178 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 6 2009 0. 386 CO 2 - eq 5 0. 510% 26 16 5 1 6 16 2 18 2 7 19 22 23 5 0 2 7 24 26 1995 43 1 41
软科学 2013 年 6 月 第 27 卷 第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) 19. 632% 3 2 3 b 13 98. 660% 12. 278% 2000 ~ 2002 3. 2 建筑业碳排放因素分解 1 8 1 0. 339% - 0. 856% GDP 3 a 1995 ~ 2000 2000 GDP 2 2 3 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 1995 ~ 1997 2000 ~ 2002 2007 6 3 b - 15. 405% 1997 ~ 建筑业碳排放强度系数 建筑业碳排放强度系数 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 年份 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 图 3 图 3 能源结构碳强度规模产业能源强度单位产出的产业规模比率产业 GDP 增长率碳排放增长率 (a) 建筑业直接碳排放因素分解 能源结构碳强度规模产业能源强度单位产出的产业规模比率产业 GDP 增长率碳排放增长率 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 年份 (b) 建筑业隐含碳排放因素分解 a GDP 2002 18. 264% 4 2000 2002 ~ 2007 2002 ~ 2005-1. 456% 2005 ~ 2007 3. 310% 13-6. 326% 3 1996 1999 17. 774% 1. 540% 2003 2009-10. 557% - 11. 353% 13-4. 339% 2005-5% 4 GDP 2000 2005 19. 057% 22. 112% 13 20. 546% 20% 1997 ~ 2000 2005 1997 ~ 2000 2005 2 8 1995 ~ 2000 S /CGDP CGDP V 1995 ~ 1997 9. 384% - 15. 405% 5. 394% GDP 28. 761% GDP 1997 ~ 2000 2. 634% GDP 42
12. 313% 5-4. 866% GDP 2000 ~ 2002 135 26 0. 431% GDP Kaya GDP 2002 ~ 2007 2005 ~ 2007 GDP 26 2005 ~ 2007 135 GDP 2004 3% - 6 % ~ - 8% 2007 1. EIO - LCA 4 J. 2011 47 3 7 741-749. 2 N ssén J Holmberg J Wadeskog A et al. Direct and Indirect Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in the Production Phase of Build- 1 ings An Input - output Analysis J. Energy 2007 32 9 1593-1602. 3 Acquaye A A Duffy A P. Input output Analysis of Irish Construction Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions J. Building and Envi- ronment 2010 45 3 784-791. 4. - J. 2011 5 136-4 143. 5. 2 J. 2011 14 97-102. 6. Kaya J. 2011 04 115 1-118. 7. Kaya CO 2 J. 2011 10 46-50. 2 8. Kaya J. 2011 08 59-62. 9. Kaya J. 2007 11 65-71. 10. Kaya 3 J. 2010 12 51-55. ( 责任编辑 : 李映果 ) 43