K wy@nawaa.com 0931-8805352 84
1 1.1. ~ 2230 2500 ~ 2011 10 1811 1938 18.79% 8 ~14 2 1330.4 3 20 25 22.48% 3.5 ~5.51 3 2500 14.1 10.5 50% 1.1.1: 1.1.2: 85
1.2. 1.2.1. 1 10 6.5% 2 8 3 14 30~37 7 20 5 4 25.5 5 1421 2012 8LME 50%6 6 14 10 1.2.1: LME 1.2.2: LME 2300 2200 2100 1900 1800 1700 3 LME3 1600 12/01/01 12/02/01 12/03/01 12/04/01 12/05/01 12/06/01 12/07/01 12/08/01 12/09/01 12/10/01 12/11/01 12/12/01 13/01/01 13/02/01 13/03/01 13/04/01 13/05/01 13/06/01 2600 3 LME3 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 2012/01 2012/02 2012/03 2012/04 2012/05 2012/06 2012/07 2012/08 2012/09 2012/10 2012/11 2012/12 2013/01 2013/02 2013/03 2013/04 2013/05 2013/06 Wind Wind 1.2.2. 150 / 86
87 15000 106 14 160 / 415 / 70 / 5 60 / 1.2.3 1.2.4 16500 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2012-05 2012-06 2012-07 2012-08 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2012-09 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2012-05 2012-06 2012-07 2012-08 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2012-09 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 Wind Wind 1.3. 1.3.1. 1.3.1 7.12 1 6.82 3-6 4 7.10-7.50 1 3 4 4 5 6
1.3.2. 1.3.2 6.12 1 ~2 2500 6.05 4 2 7.2 5 50% 6.20 1.3.1 1.3.2 8 7.5 9.8 9.3 8.8 7 8.3 7.8 6.5 7.3 6.8 6 2012-05 2012-06 2012-07 2012-08 2012-09 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 6.3 5.8 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2012-05 2012-06 2012-07 2012-08 2012-09 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 Bloomberg Bloomberg 1.3.3. 306 1 305 2 5 118 5 57.22% 37.8% 282 5 4 80 280 88
1.3.3: 1.3.4: 2 2.1. 2013 1-3 4.3 (ILZSG) 9.7% 2013 5.2% 1325 PortoVesme 1.9% 2012 3.3% ILZSG 2013 5.2% 1298 6.8% 1.7% 2.9% ILZSG 17.4 1 4.3 5 ILZSG 2013 1-3 4.3 2012 1-3 9.7 32 25 1 2013 1-3 318.9 305 323.2 315 (WBMS) 2013 1-3 14.07 15.382012 24.31 2013 1-3 311.2 6.6%325.31-3 8.5% 14045% 3 113.3 111.5 89
2.1.1 2013 3 2013 2 2013 1-3 2012 1-3 ( ) 1,118 1,009 3,153 3,063 1,121 1,056 3,232 3,063 1,122 1,031 3,189 3,011-1 25 43 52 2013 1-3 1.6 4.2 12 17.4ILZSG 2013 4.8% 11136.2% 4.8% 1109 6.7% 1.9% 1.2% (ILZSG) 5 2013 1.6 2.6 320.55 1.461-3 259.9242.8 7.04% 258.3 244.1 5.82% WBMS 2013 1-3 14.57 2.218.522013 1-3 252.42012 5.9% 2013 267 13% 107.6 2012 18.7% 40% 43% ILZSG WBMS 1 90
2.1.2 2013 3 2013 2 2013 1-3 2012 1-3 ( ) 450.4 357.6 1,157 1,130 921.6 827.2 2,583 2,441 936.2 832.7 2,599 2,428 14.6 5.5 16-26 2.1.1: 2.1.2 40 35 30 25 2011 / 201 / 2013 / 30 25 20 2011 / 201 / 2013 / 20 15 15 10 5 10 5 0 1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-1- 1-0 1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 1-11 1-12 Wind Wind CRU 2012 2.1.3 CRU CRU 20 51.8 1 0.9 CRU11.5 9.4 2.1.4 CRU CRU 17.4 19.2 91
2.1.3: CRU 2013 2.1.4: CRU 2013 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 (50.00) 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1/f 2013 Q2/f 2010 2011 2012 2012Q1e 2012Q2e 2012Q3e 2012Q4e 2013Q1e 2013Q2f (100.00) CRU CRU 2.2. 2.2.1. CRU 2.2.1LME 122.07 6 14 108.75 7.96% LME 16.6 5.74 60%8.74 44% 4 32.1 3.5% 4.6 31.43% 2.2.2 LME6 14 LME 19.74 12.04 37.88% 2010 2.44 7.2645.7% 53.22% 18.4% 92
93 2.2.1 CRU 2.2.2 CRU 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 4 2009 2010 2011 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 4 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 LME LME Bloomberg Bloomberg 2.2.2. 1 3 31.2 332.9 3 4 10 6 14 28.672.53 2010 6 14 118739 40411 51.6% 1 14.08 2 2.2.3 2.2.4 410000 390000 370000 350000 330000 310000 290000 270000 250000 150000 140000 130000 120000 110000 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 12/03/01 12/03/21 12/04/10 12/04/30 12/05/20 12/06/09 12/06/29 12/07/19 12/08/08 12/08/28 12/09/17 12/10/07 12/07/27 12/11/16 12/12//06 12/12/26 13/01/15 13/02/04 13/02/24 13/04/05 13/04/25 13/05/15 13/06/04 12/01/13 12/02/13 12/03/13 12/04/13 12/05/13 12/06/13 12/07/13 12/08/13 12/09/13 12/10/13 12/11/13 12/12/13 13/01/13 13/02/13 13/03/13 13/04/13 13/05/13 13/06/13 - - Bloomberg Bloomberg
3 3.1. 3.1.1. 2013 1-4 2013 4 44.65 1-4172.34 8.6% 4 4.4787 53.88% 0.0010 4 43.46 1-4 167.32 7.92% 416.0253 30.52% 1-4 5811.35% 4 25.8 37.41% 1-4 124.13 27.82% 3.1.1 3.1.2 4 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 25.00 30.00 20.00 25.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 2009/10 2009/12 2010/02 2010/04 2010/06 2010/08 2010/10 2010/12 2011/02 2011/04 2011/06 2011/08 2011/10 2011/12 2012/02 2012/04 2012/06 2012/08 2012/10 2012/12 2013/02 2013/04 2009/10 2009/12 2010/02 2010/04 2010/06 2010/08 2010/10 2010/12 2011/02 2011/04 2011/06 2011/08 2011/10 2011/12 2012/02 2012/04 2012/06 2012/08 2012/10 2012/12 2013/02 2013/04 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2013 1-4 2013 4 39.62 12.87% 1-4146.85 14.86% 4 161 78.16 % 4 2617 4 27.72 4.9% 1-4 86.74 37.09% 4 9.8528 26.08% 1-4 44.55 17.24% 94
95 4 39.3744 9.77% 1-4 146.2977 14.23% 3.1.3 3.1.4 4 21.0000 19.5000 18.0000 16.5000 15.0000 13.5000 12.0000 10.5000 9.0000 7.5000 6.0000 0.80 0.40 0.00 0.40 2010/02 2010/04 2010/06 2010/08 2010/10 2010/12 2011/02 2011/04 2011/06 2011/08 2011/10 2011/12 2012/02 2012/04 2012/06 2012/08 2012/10 2012/12 2013/02 2013/04 2010/02 2010/04 2010/06 2010/08 2010/10 2010/12 2011/02 2011/04 2011/06 2011/08 2011/10 2011/12 2012/02 2012/04 2012/06 2012/08 2012/10 2012/12 2013/02 2013/04 50 45 40 30 30 25 20 15 10 5 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 3.2. 3.2.1. 2013 5178.05 176.15 13.5% 1-5 907.72 902.81 13.5% 12.6%1-4 0.1 0.6 4 3 4 5 5 5 4 364.1360 4 13.64%1-4 1328 12.15% 1-526798,20.6% 20%,
96 3.2.1 5 3.2.2 4 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 130.00 110.00 90.00 70.00 50.00 30.00 10.00-10.00-30.00-50.00 2010/01 2010/03 2010/05 2010/07 2010/09 2010/11 2011/01 2011/03 2011/05 2011/07 2011/09 2011/11 2012/01 2012/03 2012/05 2012/07 2012/09 2012/11 2013/01 2013/03 2013/01 2010/02 2010/04 2010/06 2010/08 2010/10 2010/12 2011/02 2011/04 2011/06 2011/08 2011/10 2011/12 2012/02 2012/04 2012/06 2012/08 2012/10 2012/12 2013/02 2013/04 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3.2.2. 5 1578.82 5.67% 1.52% 1-5 7683.04 15.41% 1-45 7 3.2.3 3.2.4 5 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 38.00% 36.00% 34.00% 32.00% 30.00% 28.00% 26.00% 24.00% 22.00% 20.00% 2012 1 2012 2 2012 3 2012 4 2012 5 2012 6 2012 7 2012 8 2012 9 2012 10 2012 11 2012 12 2013 1 2013 2 2013 3 2013 4 2013 5 20500000 18500000 16500000 14500000 12500000 10500000 8500000 6500000 4500000 2500000 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00-10.00-20.00-30.00 2010/01 2010/03 2010/05 2010/07 2010/09 2010/11 2011/01 2011/03 2011/05 2011/07 2011/09 2011/11 2012/01 2012/03 2012/05 2012/07 2012/09 2012/11 2013/01 2013/03 2013/05
4 4.1. 4.1.1. 95% 11.05 1 250-330 55-65 60% 22-26 3700400 600 / 4.1.1 / 330 kg 600 380 105% 26 kg 17930 394 60% 3700 0.59 2128 600 / 600 400 / 400 1.05 9800 10290 95% 14190 1. 2. 500 3. 105% 4. 5. 6. 6 14 14190 6 14 1306 14500 30~40% 97
4.1.1 4.1.2. 4.1.2 / 11830 11830 1 / 330 330 0.75 / 210kwh 157.5 1370 / 0.19 260.3 6.5 / 8.5 55.25 615 0.38 233.7 50 10 12926.75 / 12926.75 12926.75 0.75 / 120 90 50 70 50 13186.75 700 13886.75 6 6 60% ;6 5 ;6 13 60-70% 98
4.2. 4.2.1. K 2008 50%3 1800 LME 4 4.2.1 4.2.2. K K 2008 61.8%2010 2012 6 1800 7 5 1950 2000 99
LME 4 20 50% 2070 2070~2080 5 1980~2000 4.2.2 4.3. QE QE 100