CEPA CEPA CEPA CEPA CEPA CEPA 1997 7 SARS 2003 6 29 (Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement CEPA) CEPA CEPA 1
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2
爲 S P (Fitch Ratings) 2 1 2003/9/18 2 2003/10/13 http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20031013/bch152215.asp 3
(+) ( ) ( ) ( ) (-) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1990 3.7 1.3 - - 3.4 820.4 12.2 823.8 14.2 1991 5.6 1.8 - -16.8 981.9 19.7 982.7 21.2 1992 6.6 2.0 - -38.9 1,185.8 20.8 1,224.7 22.6 1993 6.4 2.0 - -33.8 1,341.3 13.1 1,375.1 12.3 1994 5.5 1.9 - -103.5 1,500.0 11.8 1,603.5 16.6 1995 3.9 3.2 - -188.5 1,723.2 14.9 1,911.7 19.2 1996 4.3 2.8 6.3-176.5 1,792.2 4.0 1,968.7 3.0 1997 5.1 2.2 5.8-204.0 1,866.6 4.2 2,070.6 5.2 1998-5.0 4.7 2.8-104.4 1,727.8-7.4 1,832.2-11.5 1999 3.4 6.2-4.0-56.0 1,729.5 0.1 1,785.5-2.5 2000 10.2 4.9-3.8-109.3 2,016.3 16.6 2,125.6 19.0 2001 0.5 5.1-1.6-111.8 1,898.7-5.8 2,010.5-5.4 2.3 4.4-1.5-37.3 445.4 2.3 482.7 3.6 1.6 4.5-1.3-37.3 466.0-4.7 503.2-3.4-0.3 5.4-1.0-22.8 514.1-7.2 536.9-6.6-0.9 6.1-2.1-14.4 473.3-12.0 487.7-13.5 2002 2.3 7.3-3.0-77.0 2,002.9 5.5 2,079.9 3.5-0.5 7.0-2.6-21.2 417.6-6.2 438.8-9.1 0.8 7.7-3.2-17.9 528.0 7.8 545.9 6.4 3.3 7.4-3.5-14.0 557.6 8.5 571.5 6.5 5.0 7.3-2.9-14.4 547.3 15.6 561.7 14.9 2003 4.5 7.2-2.0-25.8 491.4 17.6 517.2 17.8-0.5 8.2-2.5-17.9 537.8 12.2 555.7 9.8-8.7-3.7-11.1 597.8 7.2 608.9 6.5 1 7.8 CEIC 4
CEPA CEPA 2003 6 29 CEPA 9 29 CEPA CEPA WTO 5
CEPA CEPA CITIGROUP CEPA GDP JPMorgan CEPA JPMorgan 3 CITIGROUP Hong Kong Economics, 2003/9/30. 4 JPMorgan,CEPA and its implication for Hong kong,2003/7/1. 6
CEPA CEPA GDP 5 CEPA WTO CEPA 2004 1 1 273 HS 4,000 9 5 2004 1 1 5 http://www.tid.gov.hk/tc_chi/aboutus/faq/cepa.html#2 7
CEPA CEPA 2006 1 CEPA CEPA 60 7.5 6 6 2001 8
CTIGROUP CEPA CEPA 2006-2007 CEPA 2004 87 CEPA CEPA CEPA CEPA WTO 9
WTO CEPA CEPA CEPA 7 8 10
CEPA CEPA WTO CEPA CEPA 11
GDP CEPA WTO CEPA WTO 9 2003/8 10 2003/9/5 12
CEPA WTO 13
CEPA WTO CEPA GDP CEPA FTA 14
CEPA CEPA CEPA CEPA 11 15
1998 100 5.0 3.4 9.6 4.2 9.4 10.2 25.5 0.0 5.9 6.0 1999 100 4.6 2.3 8.4 4.9 5.9 10.5 32.4 2.6 5.5 5.4 2000 100 4.9 2.6 7.3 4.6 6.5 11.5 30.4 4.3 5.1 5.8 2001 100 4.3 2.6 7.4 6.1 5.6 9.8 32.7 3.6 5.6 5.6 2002 100 5.4 3.1 8.4 4.3 2.4 11.0 36.9 0.0 3.4 6.2 1998 100.0 18.9 14.1 11.2 5.6 0.0 6.8 0.0 5.3 2.3 3.7 1999 100.0 23.7 14.3 11.8 5.7 0.0 5.6 0.0 4.6 2.2 2.7 2000 100.0 24.5 15.6 12.8 6.0 2.8 5.0 2.0 3.8 2.3 2.3 2001 100.0 24.8 16.3 12.4 6.4 3.1 4.6 3.3 3.3 2.3 2.1 2002 100.0 31.6 16.3 10.6 7.1 4.7 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 16
CEPA CEPA CEPA CEPA FTA CEPA CEPA (China-Asean Free-Trade Area) 10-2003 10 17
CEPA CEPA CEPA WTO CEPA CEPA 18
CEPA FTA FTA CEPA CEPA 19