机构股票研究 協鑫新能源 (451.HK) 裝機量飛速提升 中國 新能源 更新報告 18 Jun 2015 協鑫旗下電站平臺公司是保利協鑫旗下的光伏電站 EPC 及運營平臺, 於 2014 年 5 月 9 日完成了借殼上市, 並於 11 月 13 日被納入 MSCI 香港指數成分股, 公司 2014 年實現收入 11.73 億港元, 公司股東應占虧損 1.13 億港元, 主要原因是 2014 年公司的光伏專案全年僅貢獻收入 80 萬港元, 公司的業績主要還是來源於之前的印刷線路板業務 新裝機增速快公司 2014 年底裝機量 615MW, 未來三年目標裝機量分別爲 2GW 2.5GW 和 3GW 開發的方式包括自建 聯合開發與收購 在 2015 年的新增專案中, 自建比例爲 30%, 目前更多的還是依靠聯合開發與收購, 但在未來公司將加大自建的比例, 公司一直在擴充專案團隊人數 公司上半年預計並網 500MW, 公司並網的電站規模將達到 1.1GW 發電效率高公司目前並網的專案中沒有限電問題, 股權 IRR 達到了 12% 以上, 有效發電小時數約爲 1200 小時, 公司未來在專案的選擇上會避開日照時間長卻限電比較嚴重的西部地區, 將更多的專案放在中部地區 並且公司還開發一些類分散式的專案, 如漁光互補 牧光互補等, 這類專案的收益很高, 不但有普通光伏電站售電的收益, 還有農業收入和國家給予的補貼, 未來大面積的推廣值得期待 融資方式多樣公司的融資方式除了一般的銀行貸款, 還發行了一些可轉換債券, 有效的降低了公司融資成本 此外, 公司剛剛與銀河資本組建資産管理合夥企業, 以此方式融資, 保利協鑫也會給予公司資金方面的幫助 未來公司還計劃利用 Yield Co 的模式來開展新的融資, 融資方式的多樣性幫助公司的財務成本低於同業公司 估值公司背靠協鑫平臺, 在光伏電站建造運營方面有技術優勢, 同時保利協鑫和協鑫集成都可以在建造材料的供應上提供便利 公司未來三年裝機量將迅猛增長, 以 2015 年底 2.6GW 裝機量計算, 預計公司售電收入爲 33.33 億港元, 以 35% 的淨利率計算, 全年發電業務淨利潤約爲 11.67 億港元, 在不考慮可轉債轉股的情況下, 目前股價僅相當於 8.8 倍 PE 我們給予公司 12 個月目標價 1.61 港元, 相當於 15 倍 2016 年預期市盈率, 爲 買入 評級 ( 現價截至 6 月 16 日 ) 買入 現價 : HK$ 0.76 ( 現價截至 6 月 16 日 ) 目標價 : HK$ 1.61 公司資料 普通股股東 ( 百萬股 ) : 13872 市值 ( 港幣億元 ) : 105.43 52 周最高價 / 最低價 ( 港元 ) : 0.43/1.44 主要股東, % Elite Time Global Limited 62.28 : 股價表現, % 1 個月 3 個月 1 年 協鑫新能源 -8.14-18.56 68.8 恒生指數 -4.69-30.72 53.52 股價 & 恒生指數 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 16-Jun-14 16-Jul-14 16-Aug-14 16-Sep-14 16-Oct-14 16-Nov-14 16-Dec-14 16-Jan-15 16-Feb-15 16-Mar-15 16-Apr-15 16-May-15 Volume, mn 451 hk equity HSI Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Key Financial Summary FYE 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F Net Profit, adj. (RMB 000) (173.00) (113.00) 494.00 1346.00 EPS, adj. (RMB) (0.02) (0.01) 0.05 0.11 P/E (X) (38.00) (76.00) 15.20 6.91 BVPS (RMB) 0.03 0.23 0.25 0.30 P/B (X) 25.33 3.30 3.04 2.53 DPS (RMB) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Div. Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price 16-Jun-15 研研研研研張坤 (+ 86 21 51699400-104) zhangkun@phillip.com.cn Page 1 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
財務報告 For Financial Summary at the end of report FYE FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F Valuation Ratios P/E (X) (1.3) (38.0) (76.0) 15.2 6.9 P/B (X) 0.2 25.3 3.3 3.0 2.5 Dividend Payout ratio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Per share data (HKD) EPS, reported -0.58-0.02-0.01 0.05 0.11 EPS, adj. -0.58-0.02-0.01 0.05 0.11 DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BVPS 4.61 0.03 0.23 0.25 0.30 Grow th Revenue 14.7% 3.4% -25.8% 120.1% 94.3% Net Income, adj. -657.1% 343.6% -34.7% -537.2% 172.5% Income statement (HKD mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F Operating revenue 1,528 1,580 1,173 2,582 5,018 Profit before tax 23 50 (137) 1,750 4,765 Net profit attributable to equity holders (39) (173) (113) 494 1,346 Source: PSR (Financial figures as at 16 June 2015) Page 2 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
Ratings History 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Market Price Target Price Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Source: Bloomberg, PSR Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 1 2 3 4 5 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce 4 <-20% Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation Page 3 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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