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2 2011 1 1. 1 100 Schumpeter 20 70 Mensch Freeman Clark Schumpeter Mensch 1975 technological stalemate 2000 Van Dujin 1977 OECD 1992 Freeman 1982 Van Dujin 1977 Mensch 1993 Freeman 2000 1. 2 1. 2. 1 Schumpeter 1995 5 cluster 1 S Kuznets 1940 3 Mansfield 1983 4 Van Dujin 1977 Kuznets Van Dujin Schumpeter Kingston 2006 2 Schumpeter Van Dujin 1977 Keynes 1. 2. 2 Schumpeter
1 3 S 2007 7 Rogers 1995 2004 8 Freeman 1982 1 Hirooka 2003 9 Table 1 Relationship between innovation rates and stages of long cycles + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Van Duijn 1981 8 2006 6 1 S Firgue 1 1 Kondratieff cycles and Innovations Diffusion Hirooka 2003 1. 3 60
4 2011 1994 10 2006 11 20 80 Sun 2002 12 2008 17 Cooper 2006 13 Lu 2001 14 GDP Tan 2001 15 Tan 2005 16 2 2. 1 2006 2 GDP 2 GDP Figure 2 Nominal GDP growth rate before China s reform and opening up Source National Bureau of Statistics of China 2006 18 GDP 2006 2006 19 2000 2000 20 2006 3 GDP
1 5 2007 21 2008 22 Figure 3 3 GDP IMF Actual GDP growth rate after China s reform and opening up Source IMF 2. 2 4 GDP IMF Figure 4 Patent growth rate and GDP growth rate Source IMF processing according to data from State Intellectual Property Office of P. R. C
6 2011 1985 1986 1986 5 5 GDP 1986 IMF Figure 5 Patent growth rate and GDP growth rate data in 1986 weeded out Source IMF processing according to data from State Intellectual Property Office of P. R. C 1999 6 51990 1993 2003 6 GDP IMF Figure 6 Patent growth rate invention patent growth rate and GDP growth rate Source IMF processing according to data from State Intellectual Property Office of P. R. C
1 7 3 1989 5 1989 2001 11 WTO 1981 2002 23 1982 WTO 1984 1987 1992 1 1992 2003 1978-1994 Figure 7 7 Effects of technological innovation on business cycles in transition economy 1 2008.
8 2011 4 GDP 1999 IBM Forrester 1 Van Duijn J. J. The long wave in economic life J. De E- 2 Kingston W. Schumpeter Business Cycles and Co - evolu- tion J. Industry & Innovation 3 Kuznets S. Schumpeter's Business Cycles J conomic Review 1940. 30 2 p. 257. 2001 24 5 1992 1995 10-15. 6. M. 7 2007 26 002 44-45. conomist 1977. 125 4 p. 544-576. 2006. 13 1 p. 97-106.. American E- 4 Mansfield E. Long Waves and Technological Innovation J. American Economic Review 1983. 73 2 p. 141.. J. 2006.. J. 8 J. 2004 12 55-60. cycles J 9 Hirooka M. Nonlinear dynamism of innovation and business. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2003. 13
1 9 5 p. 549-576. 10. J. transition J. Strategic Management Journal 2005. 26 2 1999 5 39-45. 11. 17. J. 2006 25 3 49-50. J. 2008 1 32-39. 12 Sun Y. China's national innovation system in transition J. Eurasian Geography and Economics 2002. 43 6 p. 476-492. 13 Cooper A. C. et al. Entrepreneurial strategies new technologies in emerging markets J. 2006 Blackwell Pub. Malden MA. 14 Lu Q. and W. Lazonick The organization of innovation in a transitional economy business and government in Chinese e- lectronic publishing J. Research Policy 2001. 30 1 p. 55-77. 15 Tan J. Innovation and risk - taking in a transitional economy A comparative study of chinese managers and entrepreneur J s. Journal of Business Venturing 2001. 16 4 p. 359-376. 16 Tan J. and D. Tan Environment - strategy co - evolution and co - alignment A staged model of Chinese SOEs under p. 141-157. 18. 1954-2004 J. 2006 5-14 19. J. 2006 32 4 115-125. 20. J. 2000 7 59-62. 21. J. 2007 4Z 47-47. 22. J. 2008 8 3-12 23. WTO J. 2002 6 51-152. 24. M. 2001. The relationship between technological innovations and business cycles in the transition economy of China Wu Xiaobo 1 Zhang Chaoqun 2 Dou Wei 3 College of Management Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310058 China Abstract The relationship between technological innovations and business cycles in China s transition economy is checked. First existing relevant literature is reviewed to justify the existence of such relationship second statistical data is used to show the characteristics of China s business cycles third both GDP and patents data are adopted to explain the relationship between innovations and business cycles on the basis of the literature fourth the special transition economy of China is taken as a powerful contextual factor and its effects are studied. It is concluded that technological innovation is the very fundamental cause of business cycles but institutional innovation is an important conditional factor. Therefore the recommandations that push forward technological innovation strongly and make institutions keep pace with are made. Key words technological innovation business cycle patent transition