42 3 2008 3 J OU RNAL OF SHAN GHA I J IAO TON G UNIV ERSIT Y Vol. 42 No. 3 Mar. 2008 :100622467 (2008) 0320345215 :,.,..,:,..,,,,,. : ; ; ; ; : T K 01 : A Reflections on Energy Issue s in China J I A N G Ze2mi n Abstract : Energy, which has a bearing on bot h economic and national security, is of importance and a major constraining factor to t he economic and social develop ment of China. The article analyses the current world energy status and develop ment trend from the perspectives of resources, production and consump2 tion and in t he context of it s implications on t he environment and economic and social develop ment, and ex2 plores opportunities and challenges for China s energy develop ment. With a focus on t he strategy of ener2 gy develop ment in China, t he aut hor p roposes a new energy develop ment approach with Chinese character2 istics whose main element s are : energy2saving, high2efficiency, diversified develop ment, environment p ro2 tection, technology guidance and international cooperation. In ot her words, China is striving to build a re2 liable energy production, circulation and consumption system t hat is efficient, technologically advanced, low polluting and ecologically f riendly. A long2term develop ment strategy with priority on energy conser2 vation, efficient utillization of p rimary energy and advanced electricity system is expounded in t he paper. The aut hor also describes t he prospect of energy technology develop ment and stresses t he implementation of energy strategy by f urt her improving energy policy and related mechanisms, strengt hening macro2man2 agement and the essential role of t he market in resource allocation so as to ensure t he economic and social develop ment of China t hro ugh reliable energy supply. Key words : energy ; energy develop ment ; energy security ; energy strategy ; energy policy :2008202228
346 42,.,.,,,,,. 1,, (1 2).,,.,. 1 100 Fig. 1 Changes of the world energy resource structure over the past 100 years,,,.,.,,, 1.,, 1., GDP,,.,,. 1. 2 20 50,,.,,.,.,. 20 90,,,. 21,,,, (3),., 2 100 [1 ] Fig. 2 Changes of the world energy consumption over the past 100 years 4. 1. 1., :, ( ),1989 ;,2050,1995 3 [2 ] Fig. 3 Increase of China s energy consumption since the 10 th Five2year Plan ( Energy Consumption Elasticity Coefficient),. : =
3 : 347.,,. 1. 3. 20 70., (4),2008 100,,.,,,.,.,.,.,.,., 50 %,.,. CO2.,,. 5 150 CO2 [3 ] Fig. 5 Changes of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere over the past 150 years 4 Fig. 4 Increasing trend of the oil price in the international market 1. 4,. CO2., CO2 : 280 pp mv 379 pp mv (5) ; 0. 74 (6), 30.,., 6 [4 ] Fig. 6 Changes of the global average temperature over the past 100 years 2 2. 1,,,.,.,.,. (1),. 2006, 9 091 t,, 147. BP(British Petroleum, ), SO2. BP Statistical Review of 1979 2007 World Energy, various editions
348 42,,. 20 ( Reserve/ Production Ratio, R/ P, ),40 60 (7).,,, ( 0. 920 1. 000 g/ cm 3 ),.,..,. ( Organization of Petroleum Expor2 ting Countries, OPEC) 75. 7 %, 60 %.,10 82. 6 %., 3 55. 7 %. 7 Fig. 7 Changes of the reserve and production ratio of oil :., 6 % 20 %. :.,,4 % 20 %, 30 %. 500 C,, and natural gas in the world :,,,,..,, (2),. 2006 108. 8 TOE(1 TOE = 1. 428 6 TCE),35. 8 %, 1 ; 28. 4 %, 2 ; 23. 7 %,3,, 6. 3 % 5. 8 %. ( Organization of Economic Cooperation and Develop ment,o ECD),, 2.,,,.,,,,. 2030,. (3),.,. 2006,O ECD 51 %,4. 74 TO E., 7. 84 TO E. 1. 31 TO E, 0. 36 TO E(8)., ;,,., 1996 2006,26 0. 62 % ; 4. 36 %. ( International Energy Agency, IEA), 2006 2030. 1. 2 % 1. 6 %,70 % (9). 8 2006 () Fig. 8 Comparison of the average energy consumption per capita of some countries ( regions) in 2006 : (2007) (2007)
3 : 349 9 gλυ Fig. 9 Prospect of energy demand in different regions (4),. CO2 CH4 N2 O,. 1979, 1992,.,,,.,.. 2006, 5. 8 % gλϖ,14. 8 %.,,. 50.,,. (5),., 70 %. 20 70,,., gλυ : 2007 gλϖ 38 %,.,,,.,.,, gλω,. 2. 2 (1),.,, 1 3 ;, 13 17., (10). : 4. 02 kw, 17 500 kw h,,,. 1 842 t,,. gλξ 20. 4 t,,, 10 gλψ Fig. 10 Comparison of per capita possession of main resources in China and the average in the world gλω., gλξ : ; gλψ :
350 42. 23 900 m 3,,.. (2),. 20 90,,2007 23. 7 TCE,.,2007 7 kw,1 GW 700 MW,,.,20 20,,, 0. 43.,,. 2003 2005,GDP ; 2006,GDP,,. (3),.,,. 6, 12 t,2007 25. 4 t, 40 %.,,,,.,SO2 (11) NO x CO2,.,CO2,(12 13). 12 CO2 gλζ Fig. 12 Comparison of per capita emission of CO2 in the world 13 CO2 gλ{ Fig. 13 Major countries emission of CO2 from burning fuels (4),. 20 90, (1). 1990 76. 2 %, 2002 66. 3 %.,,2006 69. 4 %, 21 %.,, 41, 36, 5., 1 [ 5] Tab. 1 Structure of the primary energy consumption in China / % 1980 72. 2 20. 7 3. 1 4. 0 1985 75. 8 17. 1 2. 2 4. 9 1990 76. 2 16. 6 2. 1 5. 1 1995 74. 6 17. 5 1. 8 6. 1 (2005) 11 [2 ] Fig. 11 Emission of the main pollutants in China gλζ : (2007) gλ{ :CO2 2000 67. 8 23. 2 2. 4 6. 7 2001 66. 7 22. 9 2. 6 7. 9 2002 66. 3 23. 4 2. 6 7. 7 2003 68. 4 22. 2 2. 6 6. 8 2004 68. 0 22. 3 2. 6 7. 1 2005 69. 1 21. 0 2. 8 7. 1 2006 69. 4 20. 4 3. 0 7. 2
3 : 351,,. (5),.,,,,,.,,,2006, 11. 1,40. 5 (14),.,,,,. 14 2006 gλ Fig. 14 Comparison of the reserve and production ratio of (2007) fossil f uels energy resources between China and the world in 2006 3,.,.,,,.,,,. 3. 1,,, gλ :,,.,,. (1)...,,,.,,., ;,,. (2).,,.,,.,,,,. (3).,.,.,,. (4)..,,,,.,,,.,,.,,. (5).,.,,.,,,.,
352 42.,. 3. 2 3. 2. 1,,,.,,,. 3. 2. 2.,,,,. 3. 2. 3.,.,,,,. 3. 2. 4.,,,.. (1).,,.,,,.,,,,., 630 kg, 570 kg. 96 kg, 86 kg. (2). 30 % 40 %.,,,.,,. 80 %, 70 %.., 3 3. 5 L, 50 % 70 %,. 500 km,.,, ;,,,. (3).. 30 %.,20 m 2,.,,., ( ),, 50 % 65 %, 90 %, ;,, 55 % 85 % [6 ] ;,,,.,,. 3. 3,,..,,,,. 3. 3. 1,,.,.,,, ( 2).,
3 : 353., ;,,,. 2 gλ} Tab. 2 Comparison of techno2economic index among major coal production countries / t / / [ t (a ) - 1 / % / % ] 9. 93 7. 17 13 849 100 51. 3 3. 50 2. 12 16 509 100 100 2. 15 4. 25 5 059 97 97 2. 11 4. 87 4 333 100 100 1. 62 14 1 157 99. 2 95. 3 21. 9 550 398 45 30 10. 4 258 403 83 72,. SO2 NO x.. ( 15),,., SO2 NO x ;, CO2 CO2,., 10 % 20 %,.,.,. 3. 3. 2,,,. gλ} : ; ;. 2005, 2004 15 [7 ] Fig. 15 Schematic diagram of the coal poly2generation,,.,,., ;,;.,,.,,,,. 3. 3. 3,.,,,.,,.,,.,,,.,, gλ,, gµυ gλ : gµυ :,..,50 md ( ) (1 md 1 mp s, 101. 325 kpa (1 atm), 1 cm 1 cm 2 1 cm 3 )
354 42.,,,. 3. 3. 4,.,,.,, (3).,,,.,,.,,,.,,,,,,. 3 [ 8] Tab. 3 Major target of the mid2and2long2term development plan for renewable energy resources / GW / GW / GW / % 2005 117 2 1. 26 7. 5 2010 190 5. 5 5. 0 10 2020 300 30 30 15,,.,.,,.,.,.,,,.,.,,.,,,.,,,. 3. 3. 5,,,,,.,.,.,.,,, ; ( 16)., 16 gµϖ Fig. 16 Schematic diagram of the utilization of hydrogen energy gµϖ
3 : 355,.,. 21,.,,,.,., 2,..,,,,..,,. ( Internatio nal Thermo nuclear Experimental Reac2 tor, ITER),, 2050, (17)., ITER,. ITER,,.,, ( ), 23 (). 3. 4.,,,,,.,.,, 1 kw,. 2007, 7. 13 kw (18 19). : 1. 45 kw, 21, ;,8 850 MW ;, 4 030 MW.,., 20 GW. 2. 7 kw, 45 %. 2007,357 g/ (kw h), 2006 10 g/ ( kw h).,, 2010 9 kw, 5.,,,,,,,. 17 gµω Fig. 17 Schematic diagram of ITER gµω :http :/ / www. iter. org 18 2007 gµξ Fig. 18 China s total installed capacity of electric power in 2007 gµξ :,
356 42 19 2007 gµξ Fig. 19 China s structure of electric power in 2007 3. 4. 1,.,,.,,,SO2 NO x., 41 % 43 % 45 % 47 %., ( In2 tegrated Gasification Combined Cycle,IGCC), 50 %,,CO2. ( Combined Cycle Gas Turbine,CCGT), 58 % 65 %. 80 %.,,,. 3. 4. 2,.,2/ 3.,,.,.,,,,,.,,,,,.,,,,.,,. 3. 4. 3, 2, (4).,. 3, gµψ,,. 4 2006 gµζ Tab. 4 Share of nuclear power in primary energy of some countries ( regions) in 2006 / % / % 38. 9 11. 5 32. 6 9. 3 21. 6 8. 1 19. 6 7. 9 ( ) 14. 8 7. 5 14. 8 6. 9 14. 9 5. 0 13. 2 0. 8 25 12. 7 5. 8, 3. (20) [9 ] 4,..,., kw,.,,. 3,,,,.,4,, gµψ, ( ),,,., gµζ : 2007
3 : 357.,.,,.,,,,.,,,. 5 [ 10] Tab. 5 Development trend of the latest wind power units in the world / kw / m / m / (MW h) 1980 30 15 30 35 1985 80 20 40 95 1990 250 30 50 400 1995 600 46 78 1 250 2000 1 500 70 100 3 500 2005 5 000 () 115 90 17 000 20 gµ{ Fig. 20 Schematic diagram of primary 2loop system of high temperature gas2cooled reactor 3. 4. 4.,,, ;, ( 5)., 10 kw,.,,,.,,, MW.,,. 3. 4. 5,. gµ{,,,..,,.,,,.,, ( ),,. 3. 4. 6.,,.,.,1 000 kv 800 kv. 1 000 kv ( ) 5 GW, 500 kv 5 ; 800 kv ( ) 6. 4 GW, 500 kv2. 1,,..,,, gµ,. gµ.,,,
358 42,,.,., gµ},.,,,,.,.,,,,. 4.,,.,, ;,, ;,,.,. (1).,..,,,.,. (2).,,,,.,,,., gµ}, 1 MW,,,,. (3).,.,,,.,.,,,,. (4).,.,,,., ;,,. (5).,,,.,.,, CO2.. (6).,.,,,,,,.,,,,. (7).,
3 : 359.,,,.,,,,.,,,. (8).,,,,.,,,,,,,.,. : [ 1 ]. [ M ]. :,1991. [ 2 ]. (2001 2007) [ M ]. :,2001-2007. [ 3 ] ( IPCC). 4 [ R]. 2007. [ 4 ] Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al. Global tempera2 ture Change[J ]. PNAS, 2006, 103 :14288-14293. [ 5 ]. 2007 [ M ]. :,2007. [ 6 ]. 2007[ M ]. :,2007. [ 7 ],. [ M ]. :,2005. [ 8 ]. [ EB/ OL ]. 2007209228 [ 2008202228 ]. http :/ / www. ndrc. gov. cn/ fzgh/ ghwb/ 115zhgh/ P020070930491914730 2047. pdf. [ 9 ]. [ M ]. :,2005. [10 ]. 12 [ M ]. :, 2005.