4第四章.doc

123 1982 1997 4-1-1 2002 44.7 50 2002 307 1 2000 2002 72.89 2002 4-1-1 1982 1997 C2 2-2-3 19972002 A2 2-2-1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1997 1992 1987 1982 2002 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 4-1-1 (1982~2002) 1982 1 2002 2003 ( ) 2003 3 7 2

124 1982 2002 GDP 1982 2 3 4 5 4-1-1 1982 2002 21 142 6.76 142 86 60.56 56 39.44 56 2 3 2002 1 167 4 1999 9 349 5 1984

125 2001 2002 20 11 11 6 7 8 9 4 10 11 12 7 1998 13 4-1-1 19822002 1982 2 17 1983 1984 6 12 1985 1986 5 1987 6 1988 9 6 2001 4 12 28 1 2002 1 103 7 2001 8 12 28 1 2002 1 102 8 2001 10 12 28 1 2002 1 104 9 2002 3 6 2002 6 10 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9823/9826/20020610/748793.html 28 7 2002 7 107 10 2002 4 5 6 11 2002 11 23 http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2002-11/23/content_638688.htm 11 2002 5 10 2002 10 22 http://www.peopledaily.com.cn/gb/shizheng/19/20021022/848353.html 12 2002 5 12 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20021127/875963.html 13 1992 1998 24 3 1998 3 105

126 1989 4 2 1990 1991 3 1992 3 1993 11 6 1994 5 1995 1996 1 12 1997 8 1998 1999 3 7 2000 9 2001 11 2002 1991 7 14 10 15 16 2003 1993 17 14 50 1997 9 386387 15 20 379380 16 1995 4 75 17 1996 10 8182

127 18 10 1993 10 19 20 21 1993 4-1-2 1986 2003 18 119 6.61 119 78 65.55 41 34.45 41 1998 2003 1998 22 1 6 5 1 23 2003 1998 24 25 26 27 18 63 19 349353 20 75 21 1999 8 12 22 24 2 1998 2 100 23 24 2 1998 2 25 1 1999 1 24 2003 1 2003 1 16 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20030117/909852.html 25 2003 1 20 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20030120/910920.html 26

128 28 29 4-1-2 19862003 1986 5 1987 7 1988 5 9 1989 9 1990 1991 2 1992 5 14 1993 1994 6 1995 6 1996 6 1997 4 15 1998 1999 4 2000 2 2001 4 9 2002 7 2003 30 2003 1 22 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20030122/912706.html 27 2003 2 20 2003 1 20 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20030220/927372.html 28 2003 1 2003 1 16 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20030124/914049.html 29 2003 1 21 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/9667/9684/20030121/911858.html 30 1994 8485

129 1982 1986 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 31 1993 5 194195 32 29 7 1987 1 14 33 1957~1989 1989 7 35~42 1989 1 116~122 34 30 1 1987 1 147 35 130 196197 36 1994 2 272 37 1992 8 182~189 1996 7 709

130 1989 4 5 19 6 4 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 38 1999 39 1992 4 40 Lucian W. Pye, Tianamen and Chinese Political Culture, Asian Survey, Vol.30, No.4, April 1990, p.331. 41 233 42 235 43 1992 9 138~140 44 ( 1990 1 ) 257~258 45 32 7 1990 1 48 46 1990 9 169 47 1976~1996 24 8 1998 8 4 17 48 116 49 254~255282

131 50 51 52 1998 6 25 53 54 9 55 9 8 56 1998 57 10 1998 12 23 65 3 10 12 13 11 58 2002 11 38 4-1-3 9 10 15 23 198 8.61 50 164~166 255 51 1988 1989 237~238 52 1991 543~546 53 1998 8 10 http://www.cdn.com.tw/daily/1998/08/10/text/870810g4.htm 54 185 1999 3 36 55 41 9 1998 9 12 56 1998 10 8 http://www.mac.gov.tw/mlpolicy/mwreport/880715/8710/1-4.htm 57 184 1999 2 613 58 http://www.democracy.org.hk/chinese/moon_new/98/dec/23_12_98d.htm

132 4-1-3 38 1 13 2 12 3 11 4 9 5 8 6 7 7 11 8 8 9 7 10 10 11 12 13 5 14 3 15 9 16 8 17 11 18 10 19 15 20 10 21 7 22 23 24 6 25 6 26 4 27 28 8 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 http://www.democracy.org.hk/b5/2002/nov/news_13.html 1999 4 25 7 22

133 59 60 61 62 63 2000 64 4-1-2 19992003 http://www.minghui.cc/gb/death_report.html 2001 10 1600 6000 10 65 2003 3 13 623 2003 2 587 48.2 59 1999 8 12 111 60 1999 10 15 2001 3 14 6 61 2001 2 13 11 62 2001 2 2 13 63 28 3 2002 3 64 64 2001 2 27 13 65 623 http://www.minghui.cc/gb/death_report.html

134 51.8 43 13 66 4-1-2 GDP 67 4-1-3 1982 2001 GDP 9.845 3 68 2002 53 92 40 229 141 1982 1986 GDP 11.5 1984 15.2 1986 8.8 20 9.845 1.655 GDP 7.838 3.662 4-1-3 66 623 http://www.minghui.cc/gb/death_report.html 67 1997 100101 68 1978 1998 GDP 3 2000 7 i

135 15.6 11.86 7.56 4-1-4 1987 1991 GDP 8 3.5 1987 11.6 1990 3.8 20 9.845 1.845 GDP 8.35 0.35 4-1-3 9.82 8.82 4 4-1-4 1992 1996 GDP 12.08 4.08 1992 14.2 1996 9.6 20 9.845 2.235 GDP 6.826 5.254 4-1-3 17.1 9.8 4.7 4-1-4 1997 2001 GDP 7.8 4.28 1997 8.8 1999 7.1 20 9.845 2.045 GDP 4.094 3.706 4-1-3 9.12 8.12 3 4-1-4 2002 53

136 GDP 69 70 GDP GDP GDP 71 72 73 74 75 76 1982 1986 1982 GDP 2877 69 2002 6 5 70 1995 12 19 71 1999 11 47 72 20 73-1994 9 62 74 2002 9 59 SPSS 75 / 1994 153154 76 / 23 24

137 278 2599 1986 3541 5 36.24 7.25 4-1-4 4-1-5 1982 GDP 522 1986 764 5 46.36 9.27 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-5 1982 10.35 1986 8.58 1985 5 1.77 0.354 4-1-4 4-1-6 1982 GDP 80.5 1986 70.45 5 10.05 2.01 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-7 1987 1991 1987 GDP 4396 546 3850 1991 6059 5 57.38 21.14 11.48 4.23 4-1-4 4-1-5 1987 GDP 842 1991 1341 5 37.21 9.15 7.44 1.83 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-5 1987 8.05 1991 7.76 5 0.29 0.058 4-1-4 4-1-6

138 1987 GDP 67.58 1991 3.27 63.4 GDP 5 4.18 5.87 0.8036 4-1-4 4-1-7 1992 1996 1992 GDP 8652 1034 7618 1996 20254 5 165.87 108.49 33.17 21.69 4-1-4 4-1-5 1992 GDP 1657 1996 4179 5 152.2 115 30.44 23 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-5 1992 8.37 1996 11.02 5 2.65 0.53 4-1-4 4-1-6 1992 GDP 64.87 1996 68.16 5 3.29 0.658 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-7 1997 2001 1997 GDP 25750 2215 23535 2001 34487 5 46.53 119.34 9.31

139 23.86 4-1-4 4-1-5 1997 GDP 4790 2001 7166 5 49.67 102.57 9.934 20.5 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-5 1997 11.63 2001 0.07 12.91 5 1.28 1.37 0.256 0.274 4-1-4 4-1-6 1997 GDP 69.97 2001 76.42 5 6.45 1.29 0.632 GDP 4-1-4 4-1-7 4-1-4 GDP 19822001 1982 278 2877 2599 522 648 10.35 80.50 1983 302 2963 2661 550 708 9.81 77.74 1984 371 3259 2888 615 829 8.78 74.20 1985 420 3855 3435 723 988 9.18 73.15 1986 467 4008 3541 764 1084 8.58 70.45 1987 546 4396 3850 842 1246 8.05 67.58 1988 683 5161 4478 995 1535 7.56 64.84 1989 750 5489 4739 1060 1703 7.32 62.25 1990 810 5910 5100 1125 1871 7.30 60.13 1991 896 6955 6059 1341 2115 7.76 63.40 1992 1034 8652 7618 1657 2555 8.37 64.87 1993 1255 11700 10445 2216 3307 9.32 67.02 1994 1553 15204 13651 2881 4297 9.79 67.05 1995 1853 18943 17090 3620 5338 10.22 67.82 1996 2021 22275 20254 4179 6131 11.02 68.16 1997 2215 25750 23535 4790 6845 11.63 69.97

140 1998 2318 28240 25922 5267 7367 12.18 71.49 1999 2475 30805 28330 5756 7802 12.45 73.77 2000 2662 34547 31885 6523 8592 12.98 75.91 2001 2895 37382 34487 7166 9377 12.91 76.42 GDP 2000 63 2001 59 2002 61 4-1-4 4-1-4

141 4-1-4 7.8 1982 1991 1992 2001

142 77 78 1982 4-2-1 79 1982 1993 80 81 82 4-2-2 83 77 2001 6 333334 78 Janos Kornei, The Socialist System : the political economy of communismprinceton, N.J.: Princeton University Press,1992,pp.37-39. 79 2001 1 214216 80 2002 8 32 81 27 2 1995 10 127 82 1998 12 34 83

143 84 4-2-3 4-2-1 1 2 3 4 5 377413 4-2-2 1 2 3 4 5 2002 5 68 84 1991 12 9294

144 4-2-3 1 2 3 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 85 34 8 1991 8 2230 86 108111 87 88 89 90 68 91 334 1995 8 18

145 92 93 94 95 96 97 1982 2002 98 99 100 101 92 93 2002 1 2 832 94 35 95 1991 5 882 96 2002 1 130 97 30 3 1999 7 15 98 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/5089/5106/20010430/456590.html 99 2002 4 72 100 101 2002 8 135

146 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 4-2-4 109 4-2-5 9 7 9 37 24 19 110 5 111 5 1.8 7.2 4.8 3.8 175 102 103 104 105 1996 10 8182 106 1994 6 147148 107 30 108 217 109 1998 6 168 110 111 1991 5 883

147 210 The Iron Law of 112 Oligarchy 113 4-2-5 114 4-2-4 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 2 1. 2. 3. 3 1. 2. 112 1989 1 358 113 1994 3 171 114 Susan L. Shirk, The Political Logic of Economic Reform in ChinaBerkeley : University of California Press, 1993, pp.103.

148 4-2-5 1982 9 1213 2 1983 10 1112 2 1 1984 10 20 1 1985 9 16 1 9 1.8 1985 9 24 1 1986 9 28 1 1987 10 20 1 1987 11 2 1 1988 3 1519 5 1988 9 2630 5 2 1989 6 2324 2 1989 11 69 4 37 7.2 1990 3 912 4 1990 12 2530 6 1991 11 2529 5 1992 10 59 5 1992 10 9 1 1993 3 57 3 3 1993 11 1114 4 1994 9 2528 4 24 4.8 1995 9 2528 4 1996 10 710 4 1997 9 69 4 1997 9 19 1 1998 2 2526 2 4 1998 10 1214 3 1999 9 1922 4 19 3.8 2000 10 911 3 2001 9 2426 3 2002 11 3 5 3 5 2002 11 15 1 1 1 115 116 115 116

149 117 118 119 120 121 122 5 123 124 125 126 127 117 166 118 62 119 2001 8 65 120 1983 1 8 121 185 175 31 122 1987 12 4 123 65 124 63 125 841842 126 1993 10 309310 127 Frederick C. Teiwes, Politics at the "Core": The Political Circumstances of Mao Zedong,Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin, China Information, vol. xv,no.12001pp.1-65.

150 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 2 135 136 137 128 1997 2 19 1997 9 12 129 30 6 1996 6 41 1995 8 233 235 130 1999 9 278286 131 278 132 2001 5 106 133 NJ 1993 6 172 1993 3 442443 134 1998 9 58 135 59 136 37 137 89

151 138 139 140 141 142 4-2-6 4-2-6 GDP 1982 1987 1992 1997 2001 Pearson 0.020 0.394 0.485 0.563 0.580 0.917 0.031 0.007 0.001 0.001 29 30 30 31 31 138 2 22 3 5 1 3 139 1 3 2 140 3 2 141 Dittmer Lowell Dittmer 50 142 Lowell Dittmer 49 2002 12 19

152 1980 1980 2 1 143 144 145 146 147 1977 148 20 9.5 149 26 15 8 143 19781998 2000 1 202 144 1980 1980 2000 8 5253 145 1997 4 547 146 1998 11 150 147 19501994 1996 32 148 1992 421423 48 149 100 2000 1 247248

153 4-3-1 150 4-3-1 1980 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2 10 3 1979 4 1979 5 4850 4952 546547 1980 151 4-3-1 152 153 154 150 1992 4 4849 151 1980 7.8 0.2 2002 53 152 1981 1985 2.4 1.8 1.76

154 1981 1982 155 4-3-2 12 2001 371374 2001 344345 1985 1985 1.8 1.7 399 153 1979 35.31 1980 43.01 1981 121.74 2001 368 154 27 21995 10 54 155 53

155 156 157 158 1980 1985 4-3-2 1983 159 160 161 4-3-2 1985 1 1. 2. 3. 2 3 1.1983 2. 1983 4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5456 7677 156 55 7 55 11 1998 39 2000 7 5455 1992 32 157 2001 10 76 54 158 1992 153 159 5456 7677 160 1999 12 242 161 7778

156 1985 4-3-1 1984 52.5 1985 39.7 1986 37.9 1987 37.4 4-3-1 1984 40.5 1985 38.4 1986 36.7 1987 33.5 4-3-2 1984 20.2 1985 22 1986 5.8 1987 3.6 162 1988 1988 1988 7 28 39 163 4-3-3 6 4 3 3 2 1 3 14 1 164 4-3-3 1988 1 2 3 162 242 57 163 135137 164 14

157 4 1987 5 6 5859 7879 187 1988 4-3-3 3.6 7.2 1991 1988 1990 165 4-3-3 166 4-3-4 1988 1993 GDP 1978 31.2 1993 12.6 19831989 1990 4-3-5 167 GDP 168 169 170 1994 GDP 171 165 1998 10 187 166 1988 96.7 3.3 1989 95.2 4.8 550 167 GDP 1997 168 1996 12 169 GDP 170 1994 171 1999 5 149 18 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/252/5089/5106/5179/20010430/456592.html

158 60 172 2001 345 2001 372374 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 2001 346 172 558

159 1994 1994 1 1 173 4-3-4 174 175 176 4-3-4 1994 1 1. 2. 2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3 1.1993 1993 2.1993 3.1994 1993 10.3 4.1994 1994 244247 188189 94 237239 22 55.7 4-3-6 2001 50 48.9 173 94 1994 2 236 174 NJ 1999 3 110 1995 5 4 175 147 176 110111

160 1993 177 178 179 2002 271272 2001 370 180 4-3-5 1990 2000 500 600 1845 181 182 4-3-6 A 177 http://www.tbweb.com.tw/tbtemp/mptr1.asp?docs=sjln1994-03-22 178 244 179 2001 8 186 180 1995 1867.27 41 11 1998 11 3233 181 1994 1995 1867.27 182 243244

161 1993 2000 1993 23.3 4-3-5 19902000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 482.19 490.3 558.64 600.31 570.05 610.01 603.88 603.8 597.13 598.13 599.12 585.28 554.75 596.5 544.63 2389.09 2534.06 2722.52 2856.67 3321.54 4086.61 4665.31 2001 370 4-3-7 183 4-3-7 1978 1978 1984 1985 1993 10 1994 2000 30 40 184 185 2001 371374 2002 271272 183 - / 163164 184 1993 1994 163166 185 1994 6 1995 4 76

162 GDP 4-3-8 1999 GDP GDP 186 1983 198619931996 187 4-3-9 1978 1992 1993 1996 1999 1999 4-3-10 GDP 1993 2000 2001 GDP 2002 265 186 245 246 94 1994 2 2021 187 362 1998 6 4748

163 92.25 100.1599.77 92.22 102.98 110.67 30.66 39.5 48.05 51.12 66.21 70.79 72.34 76.32 81.87 38.55 35.69 32.94 52.56 32.67 31.21 29.58 28.57 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 344345384 2002 272 2002 265 4-3-6 188 19801984 1985 1987 188 19501994 32

164 1988 GDP 6 33.5 22 1994 4-3-6 5 198019843 198519876 198819939 1994 GDP 2.5 8 GDP 1.1 GDP 4-3-7-0.541

165-0.408-0.89 GDP 0.816 189 GDP 0.87-0.429 GDP -0.893 GDP 4-3-7 GDP A B C D E F G A 1 B -0.541 ** 1 C -0.408 1 D 0.87 ** 1 E -0.757 ** 0.816 ** 1 F 0.833 ** -0.89 ** -0.893 ** 1 G -0.429 1 Pearson ** 0.01 ( ) * 0.05 ( ) 189 1999 8 157

166 1982 2002 1982 1997 C2 2-2-3 19972002 A2 2-2-1 2012 75 5 190 1982 2002 21 142 6.76 1986 2003 18 119 6.61 190

167 191 10400 28790 192 193 2002 11 38 9 10 8.61 194 191 1991 2 1820 192 19889 10 5-1315-132 193 1999 308309 194 28 3 2002 3 69

168 2001 10 1600 6000 10 7.8 4-4-1 19921996 12.08 17.1 19821986 11.5 15.6 11.86 GDP 19871991 8 19972001 7.8 GDP GDP 7.8 7.8 1980 1985 195 4-4-1 GDP 19822001 19821986 19871991 19921996 19972001 GDP 11.5 8 12.08 7.8 7.56 4 4.7 3 11.86 9.82 17.1 9.12 15.6 8.82 9.8 8.12 4-4-2 19821986 19871991 19921996 3 4 19972001 195 1999 5

169 4-4-2 GDP 19822001 19821986 19871991 19921996 19972001 7.25 11.48 33.17 9.31 9.27 7.44 30.44 9.934 1985 1991 2001 0.354 0.058 0.53 0.256 1991 2.01 0.8036 0.658 1.29 4-4-3 0.766 0.765 0.736 0.591 4-4-3 0.766 0.765 0.736 0.303-0.535-0.545-0.171 0.591 Pearson ** 0.01 ( ) * 0.05 ( ) GDP 17 33 196 196 2001 379

170