88 (Oct. 2003) 93 * ** *** **** 1992 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) Kaya 1. 2. 3. * ** *** ****
94 2001 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) 18 31% 50 1990 2100 1.4 5.8 1.0 3.5 2100 9 88 ( ) 1992 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) (anthropogenic greenhouse gases) (Earth Summit) 1994 3 21 1.1 (Annex I parties) (non-annex I parties)
88 (Oct. 2003) 95 (common but differentiated responsibilities) ( ) 1.2 2000 1990 IPCC1996 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) 38 2008 2012 1990 5.2 1990 7 1990 8 1990 10 8 1 (PFCs) (HFCs) (SF 6 ) (sink) (Kyoto Mechanisms)
96 (CDM) (JI) (ET) 55 1990 55 1998 (Buenos Aires Plan of Action, BAPA) (Bonn agreement) 2001 (Marrakesh Accords) 1.3 2003 8 12 113 81 32 1990 44.2 2003 1
88 (Oct. 2003) 97 COP1 2000 1995 3 (Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate, AGBM) COP2 AGBM COP3 1996 7 IPCC COP3 2008 2012 1997 12 1990 5.2 COP4 COP6 1998 11 COP5 1999 10 COP6 2001 56 2000 11 COP6 Part II COP6 Part II 2001 7 COP7 Marrakesh Accords 2001 11 COP8 Delhi Declaration 2002 11 CDM 1.4 (beyond Kyoto)
98 IPCC (550ppmv) 2013 2018 ( ) IPCC 10-20 IPCC(2001) 1 IPCC (
88 (Oct. 2003) 99 ) (Pew center on Global Climate Change) 1.4.1 (Kyoto style) (2008-2012 1990 ) 1.4.2 (intensity target) GHG GHG GDP (Business as Usual, BAU) 1.4.3 (contraction and convergence) 1995 Global Commons Institute ( 450 ppmv) 2030
100 1.4.4 (Triptych approach) ( ) ( ) 1.4.5 (policies and measures) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1.5 FCCC/SB/2002/INF.2 1990 2000 1990 5.4 ( OECD ) 8.4 37.6 ( )
88 (Oct. 2003) 101 UNFCCC, FCCC/SB/2002/INF.2 2 1990-2000 1997 Byrd-Hagel Resolution G77 (World Semiconductor Council, WSC) PFC ( )
102 2.1 1966 2000 35 19741975198219851998 5 5% 5.39-13.59% 2002 GDP 67.1% 95% 2000 10,504 50.9% 31.1% 9.1% ( )6.8% 2.1 74 26 2.2 2.2.1 2001 IPCC GHG Software version 1.1 UNFCCC CRF V1.01 1990-2000 2000 ( CO 2 ) 271.6 12.23 CO 2 88% 4.6% N 2 O 4.3% 85.8% 6.5% 4.5%
88 (Oct. 2003) 103 2 19902000 CO2 CO 2 ( Gg) CO 2 CH 4 N 2O HFCs PFCs SF 6 Total 1990 132,516.25 13,928.67 13,999.60 -- -- -- 160,444.52 1991 140,968.32 15,116.43 14,886.20 -- -- -- 170,970.95 1992 151,272.04 17,575.32 14,827.30 702.00 -- -- 184,376.66 1993 164,235.44 18,821.88 15,190.00 1,638.00 -- -- 199,885.32 1994 173,336.51 20,043.87 15,543.40 1,521.00 -- -- 210,444.78 1995 179,410.03 17,995.95 15,500.00 1,755.00 -- -- 214,660.98 1996 189,556.52 18,292.68 15,927.80 2,808.00 -- -- 226,585.00 1997 203,435.67 19,193.58 14,064.70 3,276.00 -- -- 239,969.95 1998 216,086.44 19,312.44 13,649.30 17,442.00 536.00 61.38 267,087.56 1999 218,131.70 20,160.21 13,528.40 16,726.00 1,310.00 98.91 269,955.22 2000 238,935.97 12,499.20 11,739.70 5,612.00 2,721.00 114.37 271,622.24 2002 3 19902000 CO2 CO 2 ( Gg) 1990 123,108.11 11,734.92 15,398.25 10,203.03 160,444.52 1991 132,724.91 10,666.01 16,387.37 11,191.61 170,970.95 1992 140,630.58 13,921.11 16,189.27 13,635.49 184,376.66 1993 151,683.07 16,924.09 16,497.38 14,779.52 199,885.32 1994 161,577.35 16,186.72 16,783.23 15,897.27 210,444.78 1995 168,244.34 16,088.52 16,728.98 13,598.93 214,660.98 1996 178,506.50 17,148.69 17,124.71 13,801.95 226,585.00 1997 191,938.99 18,438.68 14,865.80 14,726.48 239,969.95 1998 206,911.60 31,201.40 14,194.21 14,780.14 267,087.56 1999 210,318.40 30,051.61 14,107.50 15,477.50 269,955.22 2000 232,947.26 17,741.88 12,196.02 8,737.08 271,622.24 2002
104 2.2.2 (IEA) 4 4 ( ) OECD ( ) 22.22(0.37%) 48 6,023 1,122 GDP( a /) 15.5 28 5.6 24.7 CO 2 ( ) 217.3(0.91%) 22 23,901 12,527 ( CO 2 /) 9.8 24 4.0 11.2 GDP ( CO 2 / a ) 0.63 80 0.7 0.45 GDP_ppp ( CO 2 / b ) 0.53 51 0.57 0.51 ( CO 2 /10 9 ) 62.52 25 56.51 56.27 ( b /10 9 ) 118.6 47 98.7 110.6 a 1995 b 1995 IEA2002 2000 217.3 9.8 GDP 0.63 kg CO 2 /95US$ 0.37 0.2 0.12 0.19 0.7 (
88 (Oct. 2003) 105 ) OECD 2.2.3 MARKAL BAU 2020 BAU 2000 1998 2020 2008 2020 650 1. 2006~2020 3.20%4.10% 2. 2006~2020 0.34%0.66% 1.10%1.75% 3. 2020 1.9%28.9%69.2% 4.LNG2000 420 2010 1,300 2020 1,600 5. 2006 2020 358 387 15.6 1990-2000 5.95 2 2001-2010 2.0 2011-2020 2.4-2.7
106 CO 2 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 328 311 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 387 358,2003 3 2.2.4 1989 Kaya GDP GDP TPES C C = Pop Pop GDP TPES C Pop GDP TPES 5
88 (Oct. 2003) 107 CO 2 ( ) 5 GDP ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1991~2000 104,373 14,482 85,280-10,356 14,966 ( ) (100%) (14%) (82%) -(10%) (14%) 2001~2020 ( ) 173,087 25,365 198,621-61,291 10,392 (100%) (15%) (115%) -(35%) (6%) CO 2 CO 2 Pop GDP/Pop TPES/GDP CO 2/TPES 1991~2000 6.7% 0.9% 5.5% -0.6% 0.9% 2001~2020 3.0% 0.4% 3.4% -1.0% 0.2% 92 " (OECD )1970 CO 2 CO 2 2020
108 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.05 1.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 4 OECD GDP (1990 ) 3.1 1992 1992 1994 8 1997 2002 3.2 1998 5 26 27 88 8 5 2640
88 (Oct. 2003) 109 180 1. 2010 16 2020 28 a. b. c. ( ) d. 2. 2010 1,300 2020 1,600 3. ( ) 4. 2020 190 3.3 ( ) 3.3.1 ( ) 3.3.2
110 3.3.3 6 5 CO 2 Top Runner 161 2003 8 / 10
88 (Oct. 2003) 111 6 CO 2 / ( ) / ( ) / CO2 ( ) ( ) ( ) / ( ) / ( ) / ( ) / ( ) / ( ) - ( )
112 6 CO 2 () / ( ) / ( ) / ( ) CO2
88 (Oct. 2003) 113 2003 1. International Energy Agency (2002) Beyond Kyoto: Energy Dynamics and Climate Stabilisation. 2. Pew Center on Global Climate Change (Working Draft, July 2003) Beyond Kyoto: Advancing the international effort against climate change. 3. Hohne, Niklas, et al (February 2003) Evolution of Commitments under the UNFCCC: Involving newly industrialized economies and developing countries. Federal Environmental Agency ( Umweltbundesamt ), Berlin, Germany. 4. World Resources Institute (May 1999) What Might a Developing Country Climate Commitment Look Like. 5. Pew Center on Global Climate Change (2002) Pew Center Analysis of President Bush s February 14th Climate Change Plan. 6. Meyer, Aubrey (2000) Contraction & Convergence: The Global Solution to
114 Climate Change. 7. International Energy Agency (IEA), Dealing with Climate Change-Policies and Measures in IEA Member Countries, 2002. 8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2001. 9. UNFCCC (2002). National communications from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention: Report on national greenhouse gas inventory data from Annex I Parties for 1990 to 2000. ( FCCC /SB /2002 /INF.2) 10. 1999 11. 2002 12. (EPA-91-FA11-03-A177)2002 13. (EPA-91-FA11-03-A096)2002 14. (EPA-92-FA11-03-A139) 2003 15. 2003