600527 2006/10/15 ES 2006/10/13 RMB 3.62 2005A 1H06E 2006E 2007E 2008E 504.5 235.34 597.4 774.9 923.5 52.1 34.36 92.4 123.4 157.9 34.0 17.21 50.0 64.0 82.5 % 54.4% 10.85% 46.8% 28.1% 29.0% 216 EPS 0.16 0.08 0.23 0.30 0.38 B N/A % 12.4% 5.95% 17.2% 20.3% 23.8% N/A A 3.81 1H06A (X) 2.70 1H06 1.34 EPS 1H06 0.08 % 2.98 TRACING P/E (X)* 21.90 * ES 1.5 ES ES ES ES 06 08 47 28 29 PE 4.9 2006/08/07 52 2006/10/15 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% (021) 5840 6526 lix@lhzq.com 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Sep-06 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 1 / 12
600527 ES ES ES ES 1.5 ES 2006 2006 2008 ES 19.6% ( ) 2006 46.8% 2006 4995 19.6% 46.8% 2007 2008 28 29 1 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 2 2 2 2 21 28 27 26 3 10 3 3 4 18 31 ES 5 11 15 1 3 5 8 34 50 64 83 0.16 0.23 0.30 0.38 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.05 0.15 0.24 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.02 ES 18 21 9 11 2006 2008 4.1 4.90 5.7 7.4 2006 2007 4.9 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 2 / 12
600527 ES 2 2006 2006 18 PE 19 20 21 3.2 PE 3.3 3.5 3.7 9 0.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 10 0.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 11 0.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 3 2007 2007 18 PE 19 20 21 4.9 PE 5.2 5.5 5.7 9 0.2 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.9 10 0.2 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.0 11 0.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 4 2008 2008 18 PE 19 20 21 6.5 PE 6.8 7.2 7.5 9 0.2 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.7 10 0.2 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.8 11 0.3 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.8 ES ES ES Chisso 90 ( ) ( ) 5 ES ( ) ES 130 PE/PP EA 110 ESC 130 PE/PP EAC 110 EKC 105 PP/PP EPC 140 PP PE/PET ETC 130 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 3 / 12
600527 ES 6 ES ES ES ES ES ES ES ES ES 1 PE SAP PE http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 4 / 12
600527 ES 2 ES ES ES 4 5 ES 2 2005 4 6 2/3 1/3 PE 10 ES 4 ES ES ES 10 7 ES 2006 2007 1 1 1 2 0.3 0.3 2 2 8 2005 05 (( ( /m 2 ) 40 1 2 3 / 41.2 9.43 8 2.47 1.18 4 0.15 360 180 / 15 49 399 61.4 80 2.49 360 800 / 15 49 178 6.43 222 0.4 5.51 50 = / http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 5 / 12
600527 ES 9 2000 2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ( 0.73 1.10 1.98 3.80 4.79 51.56% 79.50% 91.90% 26.10% 0.15 0.22 0.40 0.76 0.96 20 20 2005 61.4% 9.4% 1/4 95% 96% 44.1% 1/4 3 4 500 400 300 200 100 0 90 95 96 98 00 01 02 03 04 05 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50 40 30 20 10 0 93 95 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 5 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 95 98 00 01 02 03 04 05 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 6 / 12
600527 ES 5 30 2005 51 40 5 30 ES 16.3% 10 1990-1996 5.5 38% 42% 2003 2010 5% 35 30% 2004 95% 2004 100% 200% 83% 11 2002 Pampers 31.5 Huggies 22.3 Moony 3.6 Kleen Bebe 2.5 Luvs 2.5 Libero SCA 2.2 Merries 1.7 Chicolastic Mabe 1.5 Dodot 1.4 Friend Daio Paper 1 20.8 Euromonitor 2005 160 2 2006 20 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 7 / 12
600527 ES 5 5 30 ES 20% 30 ES ES ES Chisso Chisso ES 1.5 2006 6 ES ES ES 1.5 ES 2007 ES ES ES 22 21 51 2006 9 2006 2008 1215 4320 7290 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 8 / 12
600527 ES PET/PET ES 2003 2006 12 % 2003 2004 2005 2006.6 27.46 24.02 23.16 24.44 2006E 2007E 2008E 25 28 28 ES 15 17 17 18 20 20 2005 760 2006 10 47 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 9 / 12
600527 ES 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 504.5 561.5 677.2 736.2 452.4 484.9 574.0 614.2 52.1 76.6 103.2 122.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.0 2.6 5.9 8.2 10.0 6.2 9.0 11.7 12.9 3.3 3.8 4.6 4.8 40.5 58.9 80.0 95.3 7.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.0 59.9 80.0 95.3 : 11.6 16.2 21.7 24.9 : 2.4 3.0 4.0 4.8 34.0 40.7 54.3 65.7 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 106.0 114.8 137.9 149.7 22.2 38.4 40.4 42.2 94.6 99.5 139.1 133.1 75.0 90.3 115.9 118.0 297.9 343.0 433.3 443.0 213.7 238.6 260.9 280.8 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 539.0 608.1 719.9 748.6 100.0 128.0 140.1 150.9 107.5 112.6 177.2 158.0 27.2 40.3 45.0 45.5 234.8 281.2 362.7 354.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 234.8 281.2 362.7 354.7 14.5 16.9 20.1 23.9 289.7 310.0 337.2 370.0 539.0 608.1 719.9 748.6 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 34.0 40.7 54.3 65.7 2.4 2.4 3.2 3.8 8.8 26.0 28.5 31.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 5.1 3.8 4.6 4.8 /( ) (8.5) (4.9) (39.6) 5.9 0.0 (15.3) (25.6) (2.0) /( ) (6.6) 5.1 64.6 (19.2) /( (27.1) (17.1) (2.5) (2.0) /( ) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 (7.6) 13.2 4.7 0.4 1.1 54.9 92.8 88.7 /( ) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 136.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 (69.3) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (5.1) (3.8) (4.6) (4.8) /( ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.6 20.4 27.2 32.8 42.3 28.0 12.1 10.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.6 3.8 (19.6) (26.8) / (48.6) 8.8 23.1 11.8 116.6 103.5 112.3 135.4 68.0 112.3 135.4 147.2 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E ROE 11.7% 13.1% 16.1% 17.7% ROA 6.3% 6.7% 7.5% 8.8% 13.24x 16.05x 18.14x 20.56x 43.6% 46.2% 50.4% 47.4% 126.8% 122.0% 119.5% 124.9% / 39.7% 39.2% 36.2% 37.5% http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 10 / 12
600527 ES ( 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 109 69 79 79 166 209 216 216 230 200 200 200 32 115 194 ES 76 134 183 11 30 51 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 101.0 64.4 73.7 73.7 127.7 158.7 165.2 165.2 223.5 184.0 194.0 194.0 24.2 82.6 139.4 ES 64.3 111.6 152.1 11.4 30.5 51.4 2006E 2007E 2008E 1215 4320 7290 ( ES 6075 10800 14715 810 2160 3645 25% 28% 28% ES 15% 17% 17% 18% 20% 20% ( ) (%) 2009-11-5 1,324.80 9.2 2008-11-5 12.96 0.09 2008-11-5 105.12 0.73 2008-11-5 2009-11-2 720 5 2008-11-5 259.2 1.8 2007-11-5 2008-11-2 720 5 2007-11-5 84.96 0.59 2007-11-5 84.96 0.59 2007-11-5 41.76 0.29 2007-11-5 276.48 1.92 2007-11-5 318.24 2.21 2007-11-5 488.16 3.39 2007-11-5 264.96 0.44 2007-11-5 2008-11-2 63.36 5 2007-11-5 720 1.95 2007-11-5 2008-11-2 280.8 5 2007-11-5 2008-11-2 720 5 2007-11-5 720 1.84 2007-11-5 51.84 0.36 2007-11-5 122.4 0.85 07/11/5-08/11/02 4957.92 34.43 08/11/5-09/11/05 1097.28 7.62 09/11/5 1324.8 9.2 Wind 25 75 19.2 90 10 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 11 / 12
6 10% 6-10% 10% 6 10% 5047 10 518001 TEL: (86-755) 8249 2080 FAX: (86-755) 8249 3318 E-MAIL: LZRD@LHZQ.COM 161 34 200121 TEL: (86-21) 5840 6452 FAX: (86-21) 5840 6254 E-MAIL: LZRD@LHZQ.COM 2006 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 12 / 12