23 6 2004 11 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol123, No16 Nov1, 2004 GIS 1, 2 (11, 116026 ; 21, 137000) : GIS, 1 100000,, 1km 1km,,, : GIS; ; ; : P208 ; X4 : 100020585 (2004) 0620805210 1 111, [1 ], [2 ] IPCC ( ) ( 2001) : 140 014 018 ( 016 ), 014 015, ; 21, 2100 114 518,, ( 1) [3 5 ],, IPCC, 100, 10 25cm, 118mm/ a ; 2100 0109 0188m 2000, 50, 1 3mm 1998,, 215mm, 2003, 76mm 71mm ; 40mm [6 ],, 1 2 : 2004201215 ; : 2004205231 : (40271029) ; : (19592),,, E2mail : weixinl @vip11631com1 转 载
806 23 1 Fig11 Analysis on mechanism of global sea2level rise 1 ( ) ( : cm) Tab11 Prediction of sea2level rise of Liaohe River Delta ( unit : cm) 2030 2050 2100 915 1612 4913 1018 1210 1815 2016 5616 6312 1311 2215 6910 2 112 Fig12 Prediction of sea2level rise of Liao River Delta, Titus [7 ] Cline,, 70 [8 ] Nicholls [9 ] Titus [10 ] Daniel 21 [11 ], :, (FEMA) (NFIP), (1994), GIS (1994) (1995) (1995) (1996) (1997), GIS,, (1997), (1998),, (1999),,,,,, ( ),
6 : GIS 807,, 2 211 ( ),, [13 ],,, 39 212,,, 1 100000,, MapInfo, 1km 1km, 3D ( 3) 1km 1km, MapInfo,, 3 1km 1km 3D Fig13 3D grid map of altitude values in Panjin (range of 1 km 1 km) 21211, 1998,,, SPSS, 1990 1998,, 01994646 21212,, 1998,, 5 %, 21213,,,, (willingness to pay, WTP), 1998, ;,
808 23, [14 ] : 1 l = 1 + e - (1) t : l ; e ; t, t = T - 3, T = 1/ En,, 1 1998 En = 39 %, l 1 = 0139 ; En = 49 %, l 2 = 0128 l = l 1 W 1 + l 2 W 2 (2) : l 1 l 2 ; W 1 W 2 2 1998 0135 Vm, V : Edward B Barbier [15], Vm 6210 / km 2, 3 V 2174 / km 2, 2 MapInfo,, 2174 / km 2,, 5 %, V = lv m (3) 2 ( : / km 2 ) Tab12 Economic value of wetlands function ( unit : ten thousand yuan/ km 2 ) ( ) 11-5,372 1,880-102 36-59 21-168 59-40 14 21 396 139 73 26 6,210 2,174 ( : USDA - 1998) 21214 IPCC,, MapInfo,,,,,,, 1990 ( 1990 ) ; 3 311, 13cm 23 cm 69 cm,,, 4 4 3
6 : GIS 809, 13 cm, 869111 km 2, 21186 % ; 69cm, 23186 % ;, 13 cm, 2,444119 km 2, 61147 % ; 69cm, 81198 % ;, 13 cm, 2,870121km 2, 72118 % ; 69cm, 85176 % 3 ( : km 2 ) Tab13 Potential submerged area of sea2level rise in Panjin ( unit : km 2 ) [15 ] 13cm 23cm 69cm ( %) ( %) ( %) 869111 21186 883195 22123 948171 23186 2,444119 61147 2,640131 66140 3,259183 81198 2,870121 72118 3,006108 75160 3,410116 85176 312 ( 4), 2030, 13cm, (, ),, 6184 96175 126189, 3190 % 55120 % 72144 % 2050, 23cm,, 8143 131147 168113, 3197 % 62138 % 79184 % 2100, 69cm,, 14107 266194 273182, 4172 % 89122 % 91153 % 4 Tab14 Potential submerged population of sea2level rise in Panjin 13cm 23cm 69cm ( ) ( ) ( ) 1998 2030 ( %) 1998 2050 ( %) 1998 2100 ( %) 4166 6184 3190 4174 8143 3197 5164 14107 4172 65197 96175 55120 74156 131147 62138 106163 266194 89122 86158 126189 72144 95142 168113 79184 109140 273182 91153 313 ( 5), 2030, 13cm,, 40 297 376, 719 % 5718 % 7312 % 2050, 23cm,, 108 877 1,077, 719 % 6414 % 7911 % 2100, 69cm,, 1,328 13,536 16,868, 815 % 8617 % 8818 %
810 23 5 Tab15 Potential economic loss of sea2level rise in Panjin 13cm 23cm 69cm ( ) ( ) ( ) 1998 2030 ( %) 1998 2050 ( %) 1998 2100 ( %) 8 40 719 9 108 719 9 1,328 815 62 297 5718 69 877 6414 93 13,536 8617 79 376 7312 85 1,077 7911 96 13,868 8818 314 ( 6), 2030, 13cm,, 853 4,147 49,583, 45 % 83 % 86 % 2050, 23cm,, 872 4,235 51,033, 46 % 85 % 89 % 2100, 69cm,, 924 4,665 54,947, 49 % 93 % 96 % 6 Tab16 Potential environmental loss of sea2level rise in Panjin 13cm 23cm 69cm ( ) ( ) ( ) 1998 2030 ( %) 1998 2050 ( %) 1998 2100 ( %) 179 853 45 183 872 46 194 924 49 328 4,147 83 335 4,235 85 369 4,665 93 342 49,583 86 352 51,033 89 379 54,947 96 315,, 7, 7 Tab17 Potential submerged area of different land use types of sea2level rise in Panjin 13cm 69cm (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (km 2 ) 79 (4 %) 854 (48 %) 1,151 (65 %) 111 (3 %) 612 (17 %) 612 (17 %) 010 (0 %) 740 (45 %) 018 1,356 (219 %) (83 %) 019 1,411 (312 %) (86 %) 85 (48 %) 136 (76 %) 147 (82 %) 454 (86 %) 473 (90 %) 477 (90 %) 201 (22 %) 747 (80 %) 787 (84 %) 91 (5 %) 1,341 (76 %) 1,414 (80 %) 113 (4 %) 911 (26 %) 1513 (43 %) 010 (0 %) 915 (33 %) 1015 (37 %) 802 (49 %) 1,525 (93 %) 1,567 (96 %) 91 (51 %) 159 (89 %) 162 (91 %) 455 (86 %) 493 (93 %) 496 (94 %) 256 (27 %) 873 (94 %) 909 (97 %), 13 69cm, 79 91km 2, 111 113km 2, 740 802 km 2, 85 91km 2, 454 455km 2, 201 256km 2, 13 69cm, 854 1,341km 2, 612 911km 2, 018
6 : GIS 811 915km 2, 1,356 1,525km 2, 136 159km 2, 473 493km 2, 747 873km 2, 13 69cm, 1,151 1,414km 2, 612 1513km 2, 019 1015km 2, 1,411 1,567km 2, 147 162km 2, 477 496km 2, 787 909km 2 ( 8), 13 23 69cm, : 3,526 3,551 40,391, 525 525 664, 1,791 1,827 1,941, 13 23 69cm, : 37,971 44,195 59,592, 3,095 3,095 4,570, 20 20 235, 3,282 3,349 3,691, 13 23 69cm, : 51,159 54,046 62,836, 3,095 3,357 7,679, 22 23 259, 3,415 3,516 3,792 8 Tab18 Potential economic loss for submerged different utilizing land use types of sea2level rise in Panjin ( ) 13cm 23cm 69cm ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3,526 525 0 1,791 3,551 525 0 1,827 40,391 664 0 1,941 37,971 3,095 20 3,282 44,195 3,095 20 3,349 59,592 4,570 235 3,691 51,159 3,095 22 3,415 54,046 3,357 23 3,516 62,836 7,679 259 3,792 316 1 : ( ),,,, 869 949km 2, 21 24 %, 79 91km 2, 111-113km 2, ( ) 740 802km 2 ;, 2,444 3,259km 2, 61 84 %, ;, 854 1,341km 2, 612 911km 2, 1,356 1,525km 2 ; ;, 30cm, ( ) 23 %, 7 % 18 % 5 % 2 :,1998 4 6 (, 2030 7,2100 14 ), 3 5 % ;,1998 65 106 (2030 97 ;2100 267 ), 55 90 % 3 :,1998 8 9 (, 2030 40,2100 1,328 ), 7 9 % ;,1998 62 93 (2030 297,2100 13,536 ), 58 87 % 4 :,1998 179 (,2050 872,2100 9,241 ), 45 49 % ;
812 23, 1998 3,328 (2050 4,235, 2100 4,665,293 ), 83 93 % 4 411, ;,,, 151165km,, 148115km, 315km, 1 2 %,,,, [16 ] :, ;,,, ;,, ;, 412 [17 ], ( ),,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, ;, 413 21, 25
6 : GIS 813,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 414,,,,, ( ICZM),,,, : [ 1 ],..,1998,18 (4) : 342 348. [ 2 ],..,1999,18 (2) :214 219. [ 3 ]..,1997, ( ) :156 161. [ 4 ],..,1998,17(1) :75 81. [ 5 ],..,2001, 20(1) :40 47. [ 6 ].. :,1997. 47 49. [ 7 ] Titus J G, Park R A, Leatherman S P, et al. Greenhouse effect and sea level rise : the cost of holding back the sea. Coastal Management, 1991,9 :171 204. [ 8 ] Cline W R. The economics of global warming. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. 1992. [ 9 ] Nicholls R J,Leatherman S P. Adapting to sea level rise : relative sea level trends to 2100 for the United States. Coastal Manage2 ment, 1996,24 :301 324. [10 ] Titus J G. Rising seas, coastal erosion, and the taking clause : how to save wetlands and beaches without hurting property owners. Maryland Law Review,1998, 57 : 1279 1399. [11 ] Daniel. Adapting the National Flood Insurance Program to relative sea level rise. Coastal Management, 1999, 27 :367 375. [12 ] Michael J S, Gordon R B. Valuation of ecological resources and functions. Environm Manag.,1998,22(1) :49 68. [13 ],.. :,1993. [14 ],.. :,1999. [15 ] Edward B Barbier, William M Adams, Kevin Kimmage. Economic Valuation of Wetland Benefits : Hadejia2Jama are Floodplain, Nigeria. Environment Economics,1991. [16 ]...,. 1998. 174. [17 ],,..,1998,20 (2) :74 81. [18 ],..,2001,23(2) :31 36..
814 23 Submerged loss assessment of potential sea2level rise of Liao River Delta Region based on GIS LUAN Wei2xin 1, CUI Hong2yan 2 (1. College of International Business, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026,China ; 2. Department of Geography, Baicheng Normal College, Baicheng 137000,China) Abstract :This paper takes Geographical Information System ( GIS) as a platform, gains altitude values (range of 1 km 1 km ), 3D map and basic data of evaluation in the studied area of the city of Pan2 jin, based on the 1 100,000 scale relief map and land use map as well as socio2economic statistic data. Submerged land area and potential loss are assessed for the case of no defence,different sea2level rise and high water level, respectively. The concrete conclusion is as follows. First of all, the potential effects on land include : Firstly, for no defence (the same as hereinafter) and average high water level, submerged land composing most2 ly of coastal villages and towns extends along coastline, and submerged area is 869-949km 2 or 21 % to 24 %. Secondly, for the historic highest water level,submerged area is 2,444-3,259km 2 or 61 % to 84 % with Dawa county submerged almost. Thirdly, the submerged area in Liaohe River Delta (Panjin) is 23 %, but Zhujiang River is 7 %, Changjiang River 18 % and Huanghe River 5 %. Next, potential population affected by sea2level rise contains : Firstly, for the average high water level, population affected in 1998 is 4 to 6 (if considered increasing, then 7 in 2030 and 14 in 2100) ten thousand or 3 % to 5 %. Secondly, for the historic highest water level, population affected in 1998 is 65-106(97 in 2030 and 267 in 2100) ten thousand or 55 % to 90 %. Again, potential economic losses by sea2level rise have : Firstly, for the average high water level, economic loss in 1998 is 8-9 ( if considered increasing, then 40 in 2030 and 1,328 in 2100) hundred million yuan or 7 % to 9 %. Secondly, for the historic highest water level, economic loss in 1998 is 62-93(297 in 2030 and 13,256 in 2100) hundred million yuan or 58 % to 87 %. Finally, potential environment loss of wetland by sea2level rise includes : Firstly, for the average high water level, environment loss in 1998 is 179 (if considered increasing, then 872 in 2050 and 924 in 2100) hundred million yuan or 45 % to 49 %. Secondly, for historic highest water level, environ2 ment loss is 328 (4,235 in 2050 and 4,665 in 2100) hundred million yuan or 83 % to 93 %. Relevant preventive measures such as sea wall defence reinforcement, adjusting and renewal wet2 land environment, establisment of flood insurance system, and formulation of integrated coastal man2 agement plan are put forward. And scientific basis for constituting regional strategies to mitigate and prevent disasters are provided. Key words :GIS ; Liaohe River Delta ; sea2level rise ; submerged loss assessment