2003 11 I
II
III
1 8 17 25 35 42 55 IV
IPCC 2001 1860 0.6 1
0.2 50 0.4 0.5 IPCC 6 2100 1990 1.4 5.8 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2
CO 2 1% 2050 10% IPCC 1990 2100 0.09 0.88 ( ) 40 50 3
/ / 4
1988 11 IPCC 1992 5 9 1992 6 11 1994 3 21 2001 12 186 COP 1995 COP1 2002 COP8 8 SBSTA SBI 2003 6 18 1997 12 1 11 COP3 < > 1997 1998 COP4 2001 COP6 2001 COP7, COP8 5
: 6
CO 2 CO 2 7
IPCC 2001 2001 IPCC (IPCC,2001) 1860 0.6 0.2 1983 20 1000 ( ) 10-20 368ppmv 88ppmv 42 100 1860 2000 100 50 50 8
2002 0.4 0.5 0.6 20 90 20 20 40 1985 16 1998 2001 20 50 1 31 6 100 2100 1990 1.4 5.8 20 0.6 2 10 10,000 21 2100 1990 0.09 0.88m 2 2020-2030 1.7 2050 2.2 CO 2 2.9 2030 1.9 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.6 9
100 100 2-1 2-1 20 20 1-2mm 40% 50 10-15% 20 60 10% 40 1-4 40 14 1 24.7%, 10
1. 2030 5% 10% 2. 2050 500 23.1% ( ) ( 3. 11
15% 10 20 2.6 2050 6 26 21 30 70 50 2-2 100-10.8-12.0-1.2-0.0-12.9-14.1 5.3-6.5 13.0-14.2-18.5-20.6 1.7-3.8 21.4-23.5 10.0-12.9 21.5-23.7 56.6-63.2 27.8-34.4 61.6-68.1 43.4-50.0 61.7-68.3 12% 3% 2% 57% 24.7% 2050 27.2% 50 80% 90% 10% 15% 0.5 0.7 2-3 12
2-3 300mm +50% -50% <10% <10% 1500t km -2 1.5 <30% 1 000t km -2 1.5 <30% <500mm 1.5 4 10 1d 5d <30% 1. 20 5 2. 13
3. 21 ( ) 4. 1. 2. 3. 14
4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 15
6. 21 9216 3 7 0.28% IPCC: Climate Change 2001:the Scientific Basis.Houghton J. T., Y. Ding, et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press, UK. 2000, 881pp 2002. http://www.tibet-web.com/ziran/qdh/qihou.htm 16
IPCC /, GDP 8000 GDP 8000 5 8 8000 1000 2.5 17
1998 40% OECD 5% 1990 1/8 1/5 / 18
IPCC 2010 2020 15 30 2010 300 700MtC/ 2020 700 1500MtC/ 50% 100 2003 2010 5 15 2020 15 30 N 2 350-750 MtC/ 2010 2020 2010 1900-2900 MtC/ 2020 3600-5050 MtC/ 20%-30% 3200EJ/ IPCC 2100 515-2737 EJ/ ( ) / 19
/ JI CDM /, 20
1997 / 2010 GDP 0.2-2% 2010 GDP 0.1-1.1% OECD 20-600 / 15 150 / GDP 1990 / GDP GDP OCED CDM 21
3-1 750ppm 2050 A1F GDP 450ppm GDP 4% B1 GDP 1% CO 2 CO 2 750ppm 550 ppm 550 450ppm 3-1 A1FI B1 B2 GDP o 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 450 550 650 750 A1B A1T A2 TT B1 B2 A1F1 22
IPCC 2002 IPCC 30 50 23
4 C02 25 90 40% 408 324 25.8 976 656 48.8 181 124.6 45.5 24
1. 2002 1980 IPCC 2. 25
26 3. CO2 2002
27 CO2 CO2 1., 2. 3. 75 CO2 CO2 4.
1. 0.4 0.5 100 300 17 1/4 80 2. CO 2 1990 2 1992 6 1993 1 10 1998 13 28
CDM IPCC G77 IPCC IPCC IPCC IPCC 20 1. 20 80 1981 1998 GDP 9.9% 4.5% 1990 2000 5.32 2.77 1990 1980 1996 4.4% OECD 4 3.4 29
1981 1998 9.49 1990 CO 2 0.58 2.13 CO 2 CO 2 5.5 20 CO 2 2. 1990 74 2000 68% 1998 1985 909 CO 2 523 1918 CO 2 1996 1980 1062 8.6 72157 20 4097 CO 2 2376 8713 CO 2 3. 20 80 10 1990 2000 5273 962 4. 20 70 1970 25.83 2000 6.96 1971 3 CO 2 30
1. 2000 840 140 5150 1/6 34260 1/40 2000 757 270 37% GDP 1295 541 42% 1998 1000 8 3 1/15 1/30 1997 6% 19% 59% 81% 1998 31 46 77 2000 3000 3% 0.20 / 1 / 2. CO 2 3. 2000 68% 32% 1999 20.2%, 25.5% CO 2 36% 61% CO 2 1999 0.87 CO 2 2.4 50 60 1999 913 kwh 2280 40 1997 101 kwh 1834 31
kwh 4025 kwh 18 40 1999 5000 4. 25 90 40% 408 324 25.8 976 656 48.8 181 124.6 45.5 GDP CO 2 CDM 1994 168.9 17.6 1560 2100 2460 60 8 70 13 80 14 90 23 2000 15 50, 1950 1989 800 2000 1990 2000 1670 2270 32000 70% 80 80 1949 50 GNP 3 6% 30 32
2000 13 21% 7% 40% 2285 m 3 1/4 33
CO2 CO2 34
2012 GHG 1990 8% 1990 1990 (EU-level) (national-level) 2000 6 2005 2000-2001 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003 4 2002-2003 35
2001 10 2003 7 2 CO 2 CO 2 2005 1 CO 2 CO 2 25 CO 2 2005 2005 2007 2010 CO 2 45 % CO 2 2008 2012 IPPC 2013 IPPC 1996 IPPC 1999 11 IPPC IPPC IPPC IPPC IPPC IPPC 36
1. 1999 2 40 GW / 22% 3 20 GW / 27 % 3 9 GW / 2001 2005 2. 2008 5-1 1999 10 % 30% 1997 2010 18 % 37
5-1 1999 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1. 2001 9 2010 6 % 12 % 2. 2010 38
100 PV 1500 10,000 MW 10,000 MW 1,000,000 1,000 MW 500 100 100% 300 75-80 % 3. ALTENER ALTENER 1998 2002 7400 ALTENER 4. 1998-2002 21.25 10.83 10.42 39
5. (The Johannesburg Renewable Energy Coalition, JREC) 2002 9 80 2003 6 3 4 6 2 5 6. (Intelligent Energy for Europe) 2002 5 2003 2006 2.15 1%2010 6% 12% 22.1% CO 2 1996 CO 2 CO 2 15 2005 2010 CO 2 120 / 1. ACEA 2008/2009 CO 2 140 / ACEA 2003 CO 2 2010 120 / 2. 1999 12 1999 94 2001 1 18 40
9 2005 3. CO 2 1993 (ODA) 41
118.3 12.3 2002 2378.6 1.9 1047.9 1330.7 2002 1732.48 12.1% 1.7 1996 2000 GDP 10 7233 11.9 21.5 42.1 36.4 2002 16.5 4.8% 2002 6051 515 10% 2086 113 4.7% 2003 500 50 400 20% 80% 2003a 509.22 371.22 138 6-1 6-1 64% 81% 42
6-1 m 3 m 3 m 3 m 3 25.3 267.65 271.6 14.55 286.15 4.45 5.98 162.94 31.1 7.93 39.03 6.01 5.95 306.92 6.85 26.53 33.38 23.58 9 444.31 27.93 13.47 41.4 7.32 20.26 93.31 5.81 26.95 32.76 16.14 5.5 270.59 8.51 4.88 13.39 3.37 1.72 213.45 3.14 6.95 10.09 5.71 2.77 208.02 1.77 6.33 8.1 5.16 8.68 134.42 13.07 15.71 28.78 13.61 6.44 174.13 1.05 2.09 3.14 1.05 0.17 41.2 0 0.066 0.066 0.05 27.04 17.98 0.392 12.54 12.93 4.48 118.81 2334.92 371.222 137.996 509.216 90.93 1988 7880 67% 22% 1949 1961-1964 8826 80 80 60 10.7% 80 600 8% 90% 2002 43
2002 2232 12000 2003 2002 1.123 26 2003 13, 20 30 2700 10000 7310 3.3-5.7 200 3 70 3 20 5000 50 200 3 20 4000 5000 54 30 115 167 2, 2 2600 3400 http://www.nmqq.gov.cn/11.htm 1. http://www.nmhbj.com/gongbao.htm 2. 2000 12 44
http://www.nmhbj.com/gongbao.htm 3. http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2003-02-19/143054400s.shtml 7.5 6-1 6-1 45
46 6-1 1. GEF GEF GEF OP6 GEF 2 2. CDM 12 CDM
CDM CO2 CO2 CO2 47
2002 525.8 507.3 18.5 75 18.5 10.3 8.2 8.2 1.6kwh 1.6kwh 8.2 1.6kwh 82000 1.6 365 47888000kwh 20% 59860000kwh 10.3 103000 1.6 365 60152000kwh 54%, 7.93 0.6 60152000/0.4 150380000kwh IPCC 0.9kgCO2/kWh 0.9kgCO2/kwh 59860000kwh 74825tCO2 460g/kwh 2 200MW 48
50.62% 0.9 CO2 460 50.62% 0.9 44/12=0.768kgCO2/kwh 10.3 0.768kgCO2/kwh 150380000kwh 115491840kgCO2 115491.84tCO2 CO2 115491.84+74825=190316.84tCO2 0.136 /kwh 11383 1.6kwh 15 1.6kwh 365 15 8760kwh 11383/8760=1.30 /kwh 60 1kwh 2.5kwh 0.34 /kwh 15 1.30+0.34=1.64 /kwh 2.18 /kwh 3.84 73.1%, 26.9% 2.18 73.1% 3.84 26.9 2.627 /kwh 0.768kgCO2/kwh (2.627 1.64)/0.768=1.285 /kgco2 1285 /tco2 3.5 /kwh 0.9kgCO2, CO2 2.627-3.5 /0.9= 0.97 /kgco2= 970 /tco2 970 0.5986 1285 1.5038 /(1.5038+0.5986)=642.95 /tco2 49
1. 1 2002 300 2010 743 1998 600-900m 3 2003 10 100 50
50 600*9.8*50*10 3 =294000000 900*9.8*50*10 3 =441000000 19600000-29400000 / 5.4-8.2 / 6.8 / CO 2 300 2010 743 50% IPCC 0.9 / 2002 2010 6-2 2002-2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 300 355.375 410.75 466.125 521.5 576.875 632.25 687.625 743 20400000 24165500 27931000 31696500 35462000 39227500 42993000 46758500 50524000 CO 2 36720 43497.9 50275.8 57053.7 63831.6 70609.5 77387.4 84165.3 90943.2 CO 2 2002 2010 CO 2 574484 57 2. 2 7880 90 4666.7 260 833 2 51
1093 CO 2 2006748 200 3. 2.18 /kwh 3.5 /kwh 1000 40 50 20-100 70 25% 55% 80% 52
1 1998 2 2003 3 2003 2 19 4 :http://www.crein.org.cn/forum/windpower/99012_07.htm 5 2003 2 200MW 13 6 2003 2010 7 2003 8 2003 9 2003a 10 2003b 11 2003c 12 2003: 2003 13 2003 14 2000 2015 15 2002 53
16 2001 CDM 17 http://www.nmhbj.com/gongbao.htm 18 http://www.nmqq.gov.cn/11.htm 19 IPCC, Indicative Simplified Baseline and Monitoring Methodologies for Selected Small-scale CDM Project Activity Categories annex B of Recommendation by the Panel on Baseline and Monitoring Methodology (MethPanel). 20 J.W.Martens, F.D.J.Nieuwenhout,ect. Towards a Streamlined CDM Process for Solar Home Systems which is based on the study Streamlining CDM Procedures for SHSs,financed by the Shell Foundation and Novem.Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Sunrise Technologies Consulting, IT Power. 21 Steven Kaufman, 2000, R ural Electrification with Solar Energy as a Climate Protection Strategy R esearch report of Renewable Energy Policy Project REPP. 54
GEF CDM GEF GEF 1.GEF GEF 1990 1991 GEF 1200 140 45 120 2002 8 32 4 GEF 30 GEF GEF 1991 GEF 15 50 GEF GEF GEF GEF OPGEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF 55
GEF UNDP UNEP GEF 6 2. GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF GEF 2002 4 GEF http://www.gefchina.org.cn 2003 6 GEF 35 GEF 4.0 22 GEF 3 19 22 GEF GEF 4 OP5 OP6 OP7 OP11 2004 2006 5.39 7-1 7-1 GEF FY03 FY04 FY05 1. 28 25 25 2. 16 30 38 3., 48 40 40 4. 20 35 40 5. 0 30 35 6. / 20 20 39 7. 0 5 5 132 185 222 56
GEF GEF 1 2 GEF 3 4 CEO GEF 5 6 GEF GEF 1 GEF 2 GEF 3 / GEF GEF GEF GEF 1. 75% 18%, 57
(CREIA) 2580 1150 880 300 253 1999 2. 13 " " " 58
GEF 813.5 1806.5 2620 2001 9 http://www.ccre.com.cn http://www.cn-greenlights.gov.cn CDM 1997 12 (Clean Development Mechanism, CDM) 12 (Certified Emission Reductions, CERs) CDM CDM 1998 CDM 4 2001 15 17 CDM (Executive Board, EB) CDM CDM 2003 8 CDM CDM 2 Salvador da Bahia HFC CDM CDM CDM 59
http://cdm.unfccc.int/ CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM 1. CDM CDM 60
20% CDM /, CDM - CDM 2. CDM (1) (2) (3) (4) 3. CDM CDM / / CDM CDM 4. CDM 61
5. CDM CDM CDM CDM ( 7 ) ( 10 ) CDM CDM (Validation) (verification) OECDM EB CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM 1 2 3 CDM 4 3 CDM 8 62
5 6 7 CDM 8 3 CDM 15 CDM CDM 1.5 1500 1.5 CO 2 CDM CDM CERUPT 1. CERUPT CERUPT CDM CERs CDM CERs CERUPT CDM CERs 5.5 /t-co 2 e ( ) 4.4 /t-co 2 e 4.4 /t-co 2 e, 3.3 /t-co 2 e 2. PCF CDM PCF 1 4 5 6 $1000 17 ( $500 ) PCF 63
3-4 /t-co 2 PCF 3. (BIOCF) 2002 12 1 2003 CDM 1998 CDM CDM CDM CDM CDM UNITAR I CDM/AIJ /JI AIJ USAID CDM CDM 64
1. CDM 2. 20 90 PACKAD 250 3. CDM CDM 65