12 4 2013 7 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.12No.4 July2013 李郇洪国志黄亮雄 * 摘要 关键词 一 引 言 2010 3 28 4 1 5 30 * ; : 135 D214510275; :15989259527;E-mail:hongguozhi@ foxmail.com ( :4087106641271138)
1142 ( ) 12 二 文献综述 ( ) 1994 75% 2002 1993 78% 1994 44.3% 70% 2006 75.3% 30% ( 2008) (2004) ( ) 1994 ( 2007; 2008) ( 2006) ( 2006); ( 2006) ( ) GDP ( 2007)
4 : 1143 (2009) 20 90 1994 ( 2009) 2006 60% 1978 64% 2006 26.4% (2008) ( 2009; 2009) 三 理论命题 ( ) ( - )/ 1 1994 1999 0.5 2003 ; 2002 1992 1998 1999
1144 ( ) 12 1 (1992 2008 ) : : ; : ; : : (1993 2009 ) 1987 0.352 1992 525 20 90 1993 557.8 1994 639 2000 595.6 2001 1000 2007 1 ( 2) 2 (1987 2008 ) :1987 1998 (2008)1999 2008
4 : 1145 ( ) 1994 30%1996 62% (Eckaus2003) 1999 2003 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.1 1999 1999 2003 (2005 ) 1: ( ) GDP 2002 2001 5% 2002 7 15% 2003 28% 70% 50% ( 1)
1146 ( ) 12 1 2003 0.72 0.03 0.05 0.19 0.43 0.12 0.16 0.29 2004 0.71 0.02 0.05 0.21 0.45 0.08 0.15 0.33 2005 0.65 0.03 0.06 0.26 0.29 0.08 0.16 0.48 2006 0.69 0.01 0.05 0.24 0.28 0.04 0.16 0.52 2007 0.50 0.01 0.06 0.43 0.18 0.04 0.21 0.58 2008 0.16 0.02 0.06 0.76 0.07 0.05 0.13 0.74 : (2004 2009 ) ( 2004) GDP FDI : ; 2: ( ) 1999 2008 ( 3) 2003 2007 2003 2004 2004 4 ( )
4 : 1147 3 4 : ( )
1148 ( ) 12 (decoupling) ( ) 2003 73% 2008 81% ( 5 6) 5 2003 : (2004 ) 6 2008 : (2009 )
4 : 1149 ( ) ( ) ( ) 2005 2004 6412.2 2005 5883.8 四 模型设定与实证方法 ( ) i :fi=g(f-ix i )fi f-i i Anselin (1988) (Spatial Lag ModelSLM)Caseetal.(1993) (1) : fit =ρ i j ωijfjt +X itβ +u it. (1) ρ
1150 ( ) 12 ρ (2008) 1995 2005 PesaranandToseti (2007) (SAR) (1) : fit =ρ i j ωijfjt +X itβ +u it u it =ρ 2 j i w ij u jt +εit εit =μ i +νit (2) νit ~i.i.d(0σ 2 νi n ) μ i ~i.i.d(0σ 2 μ ). (2) (SLM SAR) (SEM) (2010) (2) (3) Anselinetal.(2008) time-spacesimultaneous fit = fit-1 +ρ i j ωijfjt +X itβ +u it u it =ρ 2 j i w ij u jt +εit εit =μ i +νit (3) νit ~i.i.d(0σ 2 νi n ) μ i ~i.i.d(0σ 2 μ ). (3) (4) :
4 : 1151 fit = fit-1 +ρwft +X itβ +u it ft = (f1t fit fnt). (4) W N N W W W W K : i j w ij =1 w ij =0 ( ) (1) GMM (3) 1 : : Baltagietal. (2007) : Kapooretal.(2007) GM ρ P= (i Ti 2 T /T) I N Q= (I T -i Ti T /T) I N ε= 珋 (I T W )εσ 2 1=σ 2 ν+tσ 2 6 : μ E(ε Qε/N(T -1))=σ 2 ν E(ε Pε/N)=σ 2 1 E( 珋 ε Q 珋 ε/n(t -1))=σ 2 νtr(w W )/N E( 珋 ε P 珋 ε/n)=σ 2 1tr(W W )/N E( 珋 ε Qε/N(T -1))=0 E( 珋 ε Pε/N)=0. NLS ρ 2 σ 2 ν σ 2 μ : FGLS 1
1152 ( ) 12 ( z) Cochrane-Orcut-type :z * ( ρ^2)=[i T (I N -ρ^2w)]z weightedgmm : GMM ρ ( ) 1. (f) : ; ; ; 2. (fgap) : ( - )/ 3. GDP (lngdp) 4. (hinde) 70 70 100 5. 2002 7 2001 85%2002 84% 2003 76% 124.3% 2003 2003
4 : 1153 (year03) 2002 6. (cls) ; (open) FDI ( ) ; (den) / GDP 1999 (3) (5) 2 fit = fit-1 +ρwft +β 1hindeit + β 2fgapit + β 3lngdpit +β 4lndenit + β 5openit + β 6lnclsit +uit. (5) 2 f 5.95 1.86 f(-1) f / 5.83 1.88 Wf f / 5.70 1.90 hinde fgap 3.38 3.51 ( ) / 0.78 1.28 open / 0.10 0.21 lngdp GDP 9.76 0.71 lnden / 6.68 0.95 lncls / 7.05 1.03 year03 0.1 0.30 ( ) 240 ; 1999 1999 2008 五 实证结果分析 3
1154 ( ) 12 (3) 4 f(-1) 3 (1999 2008 ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) L.f 0.076 *** 0.072 *** 0.075 *** 0.078 *** 0.079 *** (0.014) (0.015) (0.014) (0.013) (0.012) Wf 0.319 *** 0.379 *** 0.369 *** (0.021) (0.023) (0.021) L.Wf 0.377 *** 0.389 *** (0.023) (0.021) Wf year 0.042 *** 0.042 *** 0.102 *** 0.105 *** (0.011) (0.011) (0.017) (0.015) lnden -0.517 *** -0.439 *** -0.413 *** -0.324 *** -0.270 *** (0.042) (0.049) (0.042) (0.040) (0.035) lncls -0.716 *** -0.609 *** -0.626 *** -0.532 *** -0.466 *** (0.048) (0.048) (0.045) (0.042) (0.033) hinde 0.081 *** 0.065 *** 0.065 *** 0.067 *** 0.068 *** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) fgap 0.208 *** 0.239 *** 0.227 *** 0.352 *** 0.368 *** (0.065) (0.066) (0.065) (0.122) (0.108) fgap year03-0.398 *** -0.406 *** (0.140) (0.115) open -1.294 *** -1.553 *** -1.584 *** -1.030 *** -0.738 *** (0.292) (0.296) (0.289) (0.210) (0.145) lngdp 1.289 *** 1.210 *** 1.210 *** 1.094 *** 0.988 *** (0.052) (0.052) (0.051) (0.047) (0.037) Constant -0.212 *** -0.508 *** -0.524 *** -0.598 *** -0.597 *** (0.068) (0.084) (0.079) (0.090) (0.085) AR(1) -9.164-8.893-8.932-9.145-9.199 AR(2) 4.654 4.546 4.621 4.061 3.951 Sargan 541.539 466.541 482.605 562.788 588.042 Hansen 173.446 168.704 169.567 174.501 182.980 N 2160 2160 2160 2160 2160 :L ; *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; ; AR(1) AR(2) ;Sargan Hansen Sargan Hansen
4 : 1155!!!"#"!$%& "#"!("!)"!*"!!"!+"!"!-"!."!" /0-! """ /0-( """ /0-(- """ /0-! """ /0-!! """ /01! """!/0/)+"!/0/)1"!/0/)1"!/0/!)"!/0()1"!/0())" #2!" /0++( """ /0+1) """!/0/)-"!/0/!)"!"34567/* /0/)( " /0/(+ /0//1 /0/)1!/0/(("!/0/()"!/0/++"!/0/+" 89:59 ;/0*!1 "" ;/0)-) ;/0*1. "" ;/0*-+ "" ;/0*.* "" ;/0*+. " ;/0*1( "" ;/0!/* ""!/0(-+"!/0(1!"!/0(-"!/0(--"!/0(."!/0)/+"!/0(1)"!/0(1-" 89<8= ;/0!)! """ ;/0*)! "" ;/0!. """ ;/0!! """ ;/0!+ """ ;/0!/! """ ;/0!* """ ;/0!-( """!/0()+"!/0(!)"!/0()-"!/0()."!/0(*1"!/0(++"!/0(!+"!/0(+(" >?9:5 /0/) """ /0/*1 """ /0/)! """ /0/)! """ /0/)+ """ /0/* """ /0/)! """ /0/)* """!/0//"!/0//"!/0//"!/0//"!/0//-"!/0//"!/0//-"!/0//-" @A6B ;/0//* /0/)* ;/0//) ;/0/!+ ;/0//+ /0/)( ;/0//! ;/0/*)!/0/(-"!/0/(-"!/0/(-"!/0/*!"!/0/(-"!/0/(."!/0/(."!/0/+-" @A6B34567 /0/!1 /0/*+!/0/*!"!/0/+." CB59 ;/0*)) """ ;/0!(* """ ;/0*(+ """ ;/0*( """ ;/0*) """ ;/0!)) """ ;/0*)) """ ;/0*(( """!/0(/."!/0((!"!/0(/."!/0(/."!/0(/."!/0((!"!/0(()"!/0(((" 89A:B /01(- """ /01/) """ /0.! """ /0.+ """ /0.-* """ /0-.) """ /0.- """ /0.!) """!/0/./"!/0/1-"!/0/.!"!/0/.!"!/0((+"!/0(*!"!/0()("!/0((." DC9=E69E ;)0/1 ;(0-1! ;/0.(! ;(0((* ;(0)./ /0*/ ;(0/*1 ;/0!!/!)0(/"!)0!1-"!)0)+-"!)0)"!)0("!)01--"!)011."!*0/**" $ )!// )(/ )!// )!// )!// )(/ )!// )!//
1156 ( ) 12 ( ) 3 (1) (5) ρ ( ) (L.Wf) 2 2002 7 2003 (2) (5) year03 Wf (Wf year03) 2003 (fgap) year03 (fgap year03) 2003 2003 2003 2008 1 (hinde)
4 : 1157 1 3.1% 2003 70% GDP (lngdp) (lnden) -0.162% (open) (ln- cls) ( ) : 3 4 f(-1) 4 (1) (4) (FE) ; (5) (8) (SAR) Elhorst(2003) (SAR-FE) (1) (4) (FE) 3 (5) (8) Elhorst(2003) (SAR-FE) (1) (8) GDP (lngdp) (hinde)
1158 ( ) 12 ( ) :(1) (f(-1)) ArelanoandBond (1991) GMM ArelanoandBover(1995) BlundelandBond (1998) GMM ;(2) Pool-OLS (FE) (RE);(3) (SAR) Elhorst(2003) (SAR-RE) ;(4) (SAR) (2010) :(1) ;(2) 六 讨 论
4 : 1159 GDP 参考文献 [1] AnselinL.J.GaloandH.Javet SpatialPanelEconometrics The Econometricsof Panel Data200846625 660. [2] AnselinL.SpatialEconometrics:Methodsand Models.DordrechtTheNetherlands :Kluwer AcademicPublishers1988. componentsmodels Journalof Econometrics199568 (1)29 51. [4] ArelanoM.andS.Bond SomeTestsofSpecificationforPanelData:MonteCarloEvidenceandan ApplicationtoEmploymentEquations The Review of EconomicStudies199158(2)277 297. [5] BaltagiB.S.SongB.Jungand W.Koh TestingforSerialCorrelationSpatialAutocorrelation andrandom EfectsUsingPanelData Journalof Econometrics20071405 51. [6] BlundelR.andS.Bond InitialConditionsand MomentRestrictionsin DynamicPanel-data Models Journalof Econometrics199887 (2)115 143. [7] CaseA.H.RosenandJ.Hines BudgetSpiloversandFiscalPolicyInterdependence:Evidence fromthestates Journalof Public Economics199352285 307. [8] 2008 12 13 15 [9] EckausR. SomeConsequencesofFiscalRelianceonExtraBudgetaryRevenuesinChina China Economic Review20031472 88. [10]ElhorstJ. SpecificationandEstimationofSpatialPanelData Models InternationalRegional Science Review200326244 268. [11] [3] ArelanoM.andO.Bover AnotherLookattheInstrumentalVariableEstimationofError- (2009 2010): : 2009 [12] 2007 2 46 47 [13]KapoorH.H.KelejianandI.Prucha PanelDataModelswithSpatialyCorrelatedErrorCom- ponents Journalof Econometrics200714097 130. [14] FDI 2008 5 58 69 [15]PesaranM.and E.Toseti LargePanels withspatialcorrelationsand Common Factors WorkingPaper2007. [16] : 2009 7 21 33 [17] : 1999 2003 2007 10 15 27
1160 ( ) 12 [18] : 2010 3 22 31 [19] 2008 3 16 26 [20] 2006 11 9 11 [21] 2006 10 30 31 [22] 2007 11 91 103 [23] 2008 3 34 41 [24] 20 80 2008 4 107 127 [25] : 2006 2 5 18 [26] 2004 6 33 40 [27] 2004 10 24 34 TheMysteryofLandFinanceGrowthinChina: Tax-sharingReformStrategicInteraction oflandfinance XUN LI GUOZHI HONG (Sun Yat-Sen University) LIANGXIONG HUANG (Guangdong Universityof Foreign Studies) Abstract Thispaperworksattheinteractionofcentral-localfiscalrelationshiplocal competitionfiscalpoliciesetal.anduseatime-spacedynamicpanelmodeltoinvestigate thestrategicinteractionanddrivingfactorsoflandfinancegrowth.theempiricalresultsindi- catethatthegrowthoflandfinancereflectscompetition-imitationofhorizontalstrategicinter- actionandinertiadependence.housingpricehavesignificantandpositiveimpactonlandfi- nancegrowthbutnegativeimpactforpopulationdensitycityopennessandurbanscale.de- pendenceonlandfinanceandbudgetaryfiscalgapcanonlyhelptoexplainlandfinancegrowth incertainperiod. JELClasification E62H30H72