[8], Maddison, [9], Caviglia-Harris, [10] EKC, EKC U 2000, EKC, GDP CO 2 [11], U, GDP EKC [12], EKC,, GDP EKC, 2000 EKC [13], U,EKC U U N [14]

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "[8], Maddison, [9], Caviglia-Harris, [10] EKC, EKC U 2000, EKC, GDP CO 2 [11], U, GDP EKC [12], EKC,, GDP EKC, 2000 EKC [13], U,EKC U U N [14]"

靓缪
5 years ago
Views:

1 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31,No.4 Apr.,2012 1, 2 (1., ;2., ) : (EKC), , EKC :, ; EKC U+ U, 30 EKC U, EKC ;29 GDP U,, ; U, ;, ;, : ; ; ; ; : (2012) ,, Beckerman [1] Bhagawati [2] (Kuznets [3] ) U, U Grossman GDP U (EKC) [4] Suri, EKC [5], EKC Munasinghe EKC, [6] Stern,, U [7], Hartman, : ; : : ( ); (08JA790030); (10XFX0022) : (1968-),,,,, wuyuming05@tsinghua.org.cn

2 [8], Maddison, [9], Caviglia-Harris, [10] EKC, EKC U 2000, EKC, GDP CO 2 [11], U, GDP EKC [12], EKC,, GDP EKC, 2000 EKC [13], U,EKC U U N [14] 29, SO 2 U EKC, [15], U, N [16], N, U, GDP U, GDP U [17], N [18] Weibul Gamma 29, SO 2, 25000, [19] EKC, 1.04,, ;, [20] 28, EKC,, [21],,, EKC, U U U+ U U+U Agras [22] He [23] Kearsley [24] EKC EKC,, [9,21], EKC,,

3 4 : 629 EKC,,,, Grossman [4] Bandyopadhyay [25] (EKC), : LNEP i =β 0 + β 1LNAGDPi + β (LNAGDP 2 i ) 2 +β (LNAGDP 3 i ) 3 +εi (1) (1) i,, EKC :,, EKC : LNEP i =β 0 + β 1LNAGDPi + β (LNAGDP 2 i ) 2 +β (LNAGDP 3 i ) 3 +β 4LNPOPi +β 5LNURBi + β 6LNHHCi + β 7LNMHCi + β 8LNTTIi + β (2) 9LNFTRi +εi, EP (Environmentalpolution), ( ) ( ) (GDP ),, 2006 :,21 2 ~3, GDP 5% ~10%, 10% [26] [26] U EKC,,, [27], : /kg, /kg, /kg,cod /kg, GDP :AGDP (AverageGDP) GDP, ;POP (Population) ;URB (Urbanization), ; ;HHC (High-grade humancapital), ;MHC (Middle-gradehumancapital), ;TTI (Tertiaryindustry), GDP GDP ;FTR (Foreigntrade),

4 GDP,, GDP, 31 ( ) EKC , Moran si [28] : n n i=1 j=1 Moran si = [ W ij (Y i -Y)(Y j -Y ],S 2 = n 1 n (Y i-y) 2,Y = 1 n i=1 n i=1 n )/ S 2 [ ] n W i i=1 j=1 j (3) Y i,y i i,n,w ij,, 1, 0 Moran s I [-1,1], 0, ; 0, ; 0, 2.2.2,, (LocalIndicatorsofSpatialAssociation,LISA) Moran si LISA : LISA : LISA, Moran si [28] : n n I i = (Y -Y) i W ij (Y -Y)/ j (Y i -Y) 2 (4) j=1 i=1 Moran si 4 4 : 1 ( ); 2 ( ): 3 ( ); 4 ( ) Moran si LISA, Moran si, LISA, Moran si 2.2.3, EKC (2) (SLM) : LNEP i =β 0 + ρwlnep j +β 1LNAGDPi + β 2 (LNAGDP i ) 2 +β 3 (LNAGDP i ) 3 +β 4LNPOPi + β 5LNURBi + β 6LNHHCi + β 7LNMHCi + β 8LNTTIi + β 9LNFTRi +εi (5)

5 4 : 631,LNEP i ;WLNEP j, ; ρ, ; β ;ε 2.2.4, LNEP i (SEM) : LNEP i =β 0 + β 1LNAGDPi + β 2 (LNAGDP i ) 2 +β 3 (LNAGDP i ) 3 +β 4LNPOPi +β 5LNURBi + β 6LNHHCi + β 7LNMHCi + β 8LNTTIi + β9lnftri +εi εi =λwεj +μ (6) i,λ n 1,, β,ε, μ 3, 31, 3.1 ROOK ( ) 31 EKC, 1 1 EKC Tab.1 TestresultsofspatialautocorrelationofEKCvariables LNEPi LNAGDPi LNPOPi LNHHCi LNMHCi LNURBi LNFTRi I E (I) SD (I) Z P , 999,, ROOK Moran si 1.1% : (LNEP i ) (LNAGDP i ) (LNPOP i ) (LNHHC i ) (LNMHC i ) (LNURB i ) (LNFTR i ) Moran si , 1.1%, :, 31 EKC ( ), (Clustering), EKC, EKC EKC EKC

632 31 1 2,,,, ( ), : ; ( ), :,, 1 31 Moran si Fig.

6 ,,,, ( ), : ; ( ), :,, 1 31 Moran si Fig.1 Moran siscaterdiagramof, environmentalpolutionof, Chinese31provinces,,, 2,, ( ), Fig Moran si Moran sispatialclustermapofenvironmentalpolutionofchinese31provinces

7 4 : 633,, 2, 3.2 EKC, (OLS), Geoda095-i ArcGIS9.3, OLS OLS 2, OLS R %,F , 1% DW , (LNAG- DP i ) (LNMHC i ) (LNFTR i ) 3%, (LNURB i ) (LNPOP i ) 1%, (LNTTI i ) (LNHHI i ) 13%,, Moran si :EKC,OLS /, ( ) 2 OLS Tab.2 EstimationresultsofOLS T P CONSTANT LNAGDPi LNAGDP 2 i LNAGDP 3 i LNHHCi LNURBi LNMHCi LNPOPi LNTTIi LNFTRi R F-statistic E-19 DW logl AIC SC MI/DF P Moran'sI (error) LM (lag) RobustLM (lag) LM (error)

8 SLM SEM 3 4 (SLM) (SEM) EKC 3 4 2,SLM SEM OLS ; logl AIC SC,SLM logl SEM, SLM AIC SC SEM, logl AIC SC :SLM SEM ( OLS SLM SEM ), 2 LM (lag) LM (error), RobustLM (lag) RobustLM (error), SLM SEM 3 SLM ML Tab.3 MLestimationresultsofSLM Z P W LNEP j CONSTANT LNAGDPi LNAGDP 2 i LNAGDP 3 i LNTTIi LNHHCi LNURBi LNMHCi LNPOPi LNFTRi DF P R LR logl AIC SC EKC : LNEP i = WLNEP LNAGDP i (lnagdp i ) (LNAGDP i ) 3 +β 4LNPOPi+ β 5LNURBi+ β 6LNHHCi+ β 7LNMHCi+ β 8LNTTIi+ β 9LNFTRi+εi (7) LNAGDP i (LNAGDP i ) 2 (LNAGDP i ) , Mathematic5.0, EKC EKC U+ U, EKC 5 (LNAGDP i ) ~ ,, 30 EKC U, EKC U LNAGDP i , , U

9 4 : 635 Tab.4 4 SEM ML MLestimationresultsofSEM Z LAMBDA CONSTANT LNAGDPi LNAGDP 2 i LNAGDP 3 i LNTTIi LNHHCi LNURBi LNMHCi LNPOPi LNFTRi DF P R LR logl P AIC SC (7) LNAGDP i : LNEP i LNAGDP i = LNAGDP i (LNAGDP i ) 2 (8) LNEPi LNAGDP i =0, LNAGDP i=9.1532, LNAGDP i= ,2008 (LNAGDP i ), LNAGDP i = , LNAGDP i=9.0812, EKC 3 : EKC 2008 U+ Fig.3 EKC mapofcross-sectiondata U EKC ofchinese31provincesin2008 ( ),,, 6 LNAGDP i LNEP i :, , 1%, %;, , 1%, %,

10 636 31, LNAGDPi Tab.5 LNAGDPivaluesofChinese31provincesin2008 LNAGDPi LNAGDPi LNAGDPi LNAGDPi LNAGDPi LNEPi Tab.6 PointelasticityofLNAGDPitoLNEPiofChinese31provincesin , LNAGDP , 6,2008, , 1%, %,, 2009 :,,,,,,, GDP 4, , GDP 4,, GDP 60%, 2008

4 : 637 4 2008 31 GDP Fig.4 RatioofprimaryandtertiaryindustriestothetotalGDPofChinese31provincesin2008 3.2.3 SLM EKC SLM ( 3) EKC (LNPOP i ) 0.

11 4 : GDP Fig.4 RatioofprimaryandtertiaryindustriestothetotalGDPofChinese31provincesin SLM EKC SLM ( 3) EKC (LNPOP i ) , 1%,, 1%, [11] %, 1 2 :, ;, (LNURB i ) , 0.01%,,, (LNTTI i ) , 9.1%,,,,,,, :,,,,,, (LNHHC i ) (LNMHC i ) , 5% 1%,,, 1% % [27],

12 ( ),, 1% %,,, (FDI) [27],, FDI,,,,,,,, (LNFTR i ) , 2.2%,, :, [11],,,,,,, GDP, GDP,, 4 (EKC),, EKC, : ( ), EKC, ; (31 ) EKC U+ U, 30 EKC U, ; 29 EKC U, ; U, ; ;, :,, ;,

13 4 : 639, ;,,, ;,, ;,,,, : [1] Beckerman W.Economicgrowthandtheenvironment:Whosegrowth Whoseenvironment WorldDevelopment, 1992,20(4):481~496. [2] BhagawatiJ.Thecaseforfreetrade.ScientificAmerican,1993,269(5):42~49. [3] KuznetsS.Economicgrowthandincomeequality.AmericanEconomicReview,1955,45(1):1~28. [4] GrossmanG M,KruegerA B.Economicgrowthandtheenvironment.QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1995,110 (2):353~377. [5] SuriV,ChapmanD.Economicgrowth,tradeandenergy:ImplicationsfortheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve.Eco- logicaleconomics,1998,25(2):195~208. [6] MunasingheM.Isenvironmentaldegradationaninevitableconsequenceofeconomicgrowth:Tunnelingthrough theenvironmentalkuznetscurve.ecologicaleconomics,1999,29(1):89~109. [7] SternD,Common M S.IsthereanEnvironmentalKuznetsCurveforsulfur.JournalofEnvironmentalEconomics and Management,2001,41(2):162~178. [8] HartmanR,KwonOS.SustainablegrowthandtheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve.JournalofEconomicDynamics & Control,2005,29(10):1701~1736. [9] MaddisonD.EnvironmentalKuznetsCurves:Aspatialeconometricapproach.JournalofEnvironmentalEconom- icsand Management,2006,51(2):218~230. [10] Caviglia-HarrisJL,ChambersD,KahnJR.Takingthe U outofkuznets:acomprehensiveanalysisoftheekc andenvironmentaldegradation.ecologicaleconomics,2009,68(4):1149~1159. [11].,2000,26(10):53~59. [12],,.,2002,21(2):239~246. [13],,.,2003,22(1):60~66. [14],..,2006,(8):3~17. [15],,,..,2006,(10):121~127. [16],,..,2006,8(6):48~55. [17],,,..,2006,(1):25~29. [18],. Kuznets,2006,(8):37~40. [19],,. Weibul Gamma.,2007,(3): 569~576. [20]. :.,2008,(11):40~55. [21],,.,2009,28(2):303 ~307. [22] AgrasJ,ChapmanD.AdynamicapproachtotheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurvehypothesis.EcologicalEconom- ics,1999,28(2):267~277. [23] HeJ,RichardP.EnvironmentalKuznetsCurveforCO2inCanada.EcologicalEconomics,2010,69(5):1083 ~1093. [24] Kearsley A,RiddelM.AfurtherinquiryintothepolutionhavenhypothesisandtheEnvironmentalKuznets Curve.EcologicalEconomics,2010,69(4):905~919.

14 dence.backgroundpaperforworlddevelopmentreport1992,washingtondc:worldbank,1992. [26],.,2009,(4):27~36. [27],. FDI.,2007,(17):48~56. [28] AnselinL.Localindicatorsofspatialautocorrelation LISA.GeographicalAnalysis,1995,27(2):93~115. TheextensionofregionalEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve anditsdeterminants:anempiricalresearchbasedon spatialeconometricsmodel WU Yu-ming 1,TIANBin 2 (1.SchoolofBusiness,EastChinaUniversityofScience & Technology,Shanghai200237,China; 2.SIPGJiujiangPortCompany,Jiujiang332000,Jiangxi,China) Abstract:BasedontheextensionofthetraditionalEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve (EKC), taldegradationpresentsa U-shapedandinverted-U-shaped paternbasedontheglobal cross-sectionaldata,andtheekcpaternfitedbychinese30provincialdatashowsan invertedu-shaped patern,sotheekchypothesisatprovinciallevelisconfirmed.(3) PercapitaGDPof29provincesisobservedintheleft-handareaofthe invertedu-shaped ronmentalproblems. [25] BandyopadhyayS,Shafik K.Economicgrowthandenvironmentalquality:Timeseriesandcross-countryevi- employingthecross-sectionaldataofchinese31provincesin2008andspatialeconometrics model,thepaperanalyzesthespatialautocorrelationofenvironmentalpolutionofchinese provinces,aswelastheshapeanddeterminantsoftheekc.theempiricalresultsare shownasfolows.(1)thereexistsevidentspatialdependenceandspiloverefectsofthe provincialenvironmentalpolution,andthehigh-highandlow-lowclusteringareasarepla- yingtheleadingroles.(2)thesimulationshapebetweenpercapitagdpandenvironmen- curve,whichdemonstratesthatthe moreincomepeopleget,moreseriousenvironment polutionwilbe.(4)shanghaihastranscendedthe invertedu-shaped curve'sinflection pointinadvance,whichmeansthattheincreaseofpercapitaincomeiscoordinatedwithits environmentalprotection.(5)thepopulationsize,urbanizationleveland middle-grade humancapitalarepositivelycorrelatedwithlossesinducedbyenvironmentalpolutionof theprovinces.(6)theupgradingofindustrialstructure,theaccumulationofthehigh- gradehumancapital,andthewideningofopeningupareinfavorofdealingwiththeenvi- Keywords:EnvironmentalKuznetsCurve;humancapital;urbanization;industrialstruc- ture;spatialeconometricsmodel

Rauch JE SMSAs 10 Glaeser Scheinkman Shleiferll 11 Henderson 12 Moretti 13 Zhang D Wu F 14 Abel

Rauch JE SMSAs 10 Glaeser Scheinkman Shleiferll 11 Henderson 12 Moretti 13 Zhang D Wu F 14 Abel 2016 3 15 JOURNAL OF SOUTH CHINA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY SOCIAL SCIENCE EDITION a b a a. b. 400715 2009 ~ 2014 31 SDM 96. 26% F323. 6 A 1672-0202 2016 03-0063 - 13 1-2 20 70 1978 1984 2. 9% 7. 7% 134 355