2013 9 Sept. 2013 5 Arab World Studies No.5. Paul D. Miller, The Fading Arab Oil Empire, The National Interest, July/August 2012, Number 120, pp. 38-43. 59
IEA 2012 11 2015 2017 2012 9 2012 6 Pramod Kulkarni, Shale Search Goes Global, World Oil, December 2010, pp. 73-78. 60
2008 2009 2008 11 54 2009 2008 40% 12008 60% 6000 [ ] 2012 2009 4 2009 1 22 61
2008-2009 2008 2009 149,144 82,039-44.99 11,477 9,113-20.60 3,327 1,953-41.30 76,737 44,334-42.23 285,234 160,151-43.85 10,980 5,906-46.21 5,978 5,755-3.73 63,081 36,398-42.30 29,217 18,701-35.99 48,416 31,057-35.85 82,415 45,268-45.07 12 12 0 59,273 36,895-37.75 11,412 5,792-49.25 6,972 4,881-29.99 Economic Statistics Bulletin of Arab Countries (2009-2000), Issue 31, 2011, Arab Monetary Fund, http://www.amf.org.ae. Stewart M. Patrick, Why Natural Resources Are a Curse on Developing Countries and How to Fix It, the Atlantic, April 30, 2012. 20 62
GDP 2 2 15 GDP 2000 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 GDP GDP % 2000 GDP % 2000-200 8 4.8 251,857 149,144 59.22 40.97 +44.54 1.1 24,338 11,477 47.16 54.12-12.86 10.3 44,924 3,327 7.41 3.28 +125.91 34.6 170,270 76,737 45.07 0 24.8 475,094 285,234 39.07 39.07 0 38.2 61,085 10,980 60.04 9.16 +555.46 19.6 49,217 5,978 12.15 18.95-35.88 30.6 109,100 63,081 57.82 0 2.9 60,299 29,217 48.45 48.38 +0.14 1.4 110,712 48,416 43.73 58.96-25.83 3.4 148,921 82,415 55.34 48.35 +14.46 Economic Statistics Bulletin of Arab Countries (2009-2000), Issue 31, 2011, Arab Monetary Fund, http://www.amf.org.ae. 2.0 63
4.0 29,620 12 0.04 0 7.3 86,506 59,273 68.52 37.78 +81.37 75.2 162,464 11,412 7.02 3.02 +132.45 22.2 31,049 6,972 22.45 32.35-30.60 GDP 20 60% 24 2002 7265.3 3906 5372 18300 3.4 93% 43% 25% 30% 1998 Martin Hvidt, Economic and Institutional Reforms in the Arab Gulf Countries, Middle East Journal, Vol. 65, No. 1, Winter 2011, pp. 85-102. [ ] 2011 166 64
15% 50 1 2 3 4 [ ] 167 [ ] 156 Michael L. Ross, Blood Barrels: Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 3, May/ Jun., 2008, pp. 2-8. 65
See Paul R. Pillar, Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2001. Also see Joseph Kahn and Tim Weiner, World Leaders Rethinking Strategy on Aid to Poor, New York Times, March 18, 2002, p. A3, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/18/world/world-leaders-rethinking-strategy-on-aid-to-poor.html; Alberto Alesina et al., Political Instability and Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Growth Vol. 1, No. 2, June 1996, pp. 189-211. Scott Atran, Genesis of Suicide Terrorism, Science, March 7, 2003, pp. 1534-1539. James Piazza, Rooted in Poverty? Terrorism, Poor Economic Development, and Social Cleavages, Terrorism and Political, Vol. 18, No. 1, March 2006, pp. 159-177. Michael L. Ross, Will Oil Drown the Arab Spring? Democracy and the Resource Curse, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2011, pp. 2-7. 66
20 20 30 3 John Walley, Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements, in Jeffrey Frankel ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago, 1998, pp. 63-90. Dale Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations, International Security Volume 20, No. 4, spring 1996, pp. 5-41. [ ] 2011 8 29 67
2009 / [ ] 2009 173 [ ] 2012 9 2 68
GDP 40% 1 2 3 U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Qatar, World Facebook, https://www.cia.gov/library/ publications/the-world-factbook/geos/qa.html 69
20 70
The Evolution of the Energy Geopolitics in the Middle East and China s Countermeasures SUN Xia (Ph.D, Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.) Abstract Mideast countries oil earnings will be impacted by the acute fluctuation of international energy market structure and consumption structure. If there is no economic reforms, they will lose the dominant position in the international energy situation. The driving factors of the evolution include the external and internal elements and their interaction, such as the reversion of global energy market structure. The sharp decrease of oil demand will cause the decline of Mideast countries oil earnings, those who are suffering resource curse long-time will put their economy to the edge of corruption. The evolution of Mideast energy geopolitics will cause overflow effects in domestic, regional and global level. As the main importing country of Mideast energy, China should do something such as establish pan-asian energy security net so as to prevent the spread of the Mideast security overflow effect. Key Words Oil and Gas; Mideast Energy Exporting Countries; U.S. Energy Strategy, China s Energy Security 71