2010 09 10 (600704.SH) 18.93 A ( ) 374.75 ( ) 8,313.59 ( ) 28.69/13.50 300 2903.19 2638.80 27.24 22.24 17.24 12.24 090910 091209 100309 1,200 100602 100826 1., 2010.8.17 2. 2010.8.17 3.,2010.7.8 800 600 400 200 0 300 1,000 (8621)61038231 zhangjin@gjzq.com.cn SAC S1130206110212 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E ( ) 0.403 0.629 1.133 1.091 1.432 ( ) 4.07 5.55 6.58 9.03 10.36 ( ) -2.34 5.17 1.91 1.71 2.07 ( ) 19.25 42.21 16.86 17.51 13.34 ( ) 14.82 45.24 45.24 45.24 45.24 (%) 2.38% 82.90% 80.04% 16.47% 31.25% (%) 9.91% 11.34% 17.22% 12.08% 13.82% ( ) 374.75 439.18 439.18 531.18 531.18 8 17 13.3 17 4S 8 4 11-13 EPS 0.010 0.135 0.263 2011 2011 2011 4S 11 161 EPS 0.303 4S 2 40 4S 60% 4S 2010-2013 EPS 1.133 1.091 1.432 1.872 2011 EPS 2012-2013 10-13 PE 17 17 13 10 3-1 - 此报告仅供国信证券股份有限公司使用
... 4 2011... 10... 16... 18... 22 1... 4 2 4S... 4 3... 5 4 50... 6 5... 7 6... 7 7... 7 8... 8 9... 8 10... 9 11... 9 12... 9 13 4S... 9 14 4S ROE... 9 15... 10 16... 11 17... 11 18 2010... 11 19 2010 SUV... 11 20... 11 21... 11 22 08... 12 2307... 12 24 4S... 12 25... 13 26... 13 27... 14 28... 14-2 -
29... 15 30... 15 31 4S... 15 32 2011 EPS 16 33... 16 34 4S... 17 35... 17 36... 18 37... 18 38 2009... 19 39 2010... 19 40 2010... 20 41... 21-3 -
2010 8 17 1 12 13.3 217 4S 8 4 1 1 4S 33,000 34,193 67,193 65,493 2 17,500 17,234 34,734 34,734 3 17,000 1,694 18,694 18,694 4 8,500 5,847 14,347 14,347 76,000 58,968 134,968 133,268 2 4S 1 4S 2,100 1,617 3,717 3,717 2011.6 2 4S 2,000 3,399 5,399 5,399 2011.9 3 4S 2,600 2,875 5,475 5,475 2011.12 4 4S 2,500 916 3,416 3,416 2011.1 5 4S 2,000 2,810 4,810 4,310 2011.8 6 4S 2,000 2,010 4,010 4,010 2011.11 7 4S 2,000 2,404 4,404 4,404 2011.7 8 4S 2,000 1,029 3,029 3,029 2011.12 9 4S 1,900 811 2,711 2,711 2011.9 10 4S 2,000 1,036 3,036 2,336 2011.9 11 4S 1,800 2,073 3,873 3,873 2011.9 12 4S 1,500 2,070 3,570 3,570 2011.1 13 4S 2,900 4,336 7,236 7,236 2011.6 14 4S 1,300 2,685 3,985 3,485 2011.8 15 4S 1,500 1,321 2,821 2,821 2011.2 16 4S 1,400 1,727 3,127 3,127 2011.3 17 4S 1,500 1,074 2,574 2,574 2010.12 33,000 34,193 67,193 65,493-4 -
3 1 2,600 2,396 4,996 4,996 2011.6 2 1,500 1,312 2,812 2,812 2011.9 3 2,100 1,831 3,931 3,931 2011.12 4 7,500 4,505 12,005 12,005 2011.1 5 1,000 1,596 2,596 2,596 2011.8 6 900 1,880 2,780 2,780 2011.11 7 900 1,879 2,779 2,779 2011.7 8 1,000 1,836 2,836 2,836 2011.12 17,500 17,234 34,734 34,734 3% - 5 -
4 50 09 () 09 () 1 355.0 2 325.0 3 224.0 4 205.0 5 152.4 6 138.1 7 () 137.4 8 110.4 9 106.0 10 103.3 11 100.1 12 94.8 13 88.0 14 78.0 15 69.0 16 60.0 17 58.8 18 55.4 19 52.2 20 50.2 21 43.5 22 42.4 23 40.1 24 40.0 25 39.8 26 39.0 27 36.2 28 35.1 29 35.0 30 32.0 31 31.0 32 29.8 33 28.6 34 26.5 35 26.1 36 23.6 37 22.5 38 22.4 39 22.2 40 21.8 41 20.0 42 18.6 43 18.3 44 18.0 45 17.4 46 17.0 47 15.7 48 15.5 49 15.2 50 13.0 160 300-6 -
5 600704.SH 2010 4S 257 4S 140 173 200823 2009 36 355 20094S 160 2007 120 10 2008 164 12 2009 325 2008 4S 89 38 2009 13 4S224 4S 2009 205 881.HK 2010 150 40 30% 60% 2009 13.3 118 152.4 4S 18 10% 2009 138.1 2010 139 20104S 47 20084.1 105.5 2009 137.4 201049 10 2009 110.4 2008 4.8 38 38 2009 106 2009 103.3 4S 50% 6 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 7 250 200 150 100 1.00% 0.50% 50 0.00% 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 / / 4S 4 4S - 7 -
8 1 2 4S 8 9 16% 77 // 35% 21 49% 29 4 7%-10% - 8 -
- 9-4S 10 11 28.6% 77.3% 71.4% 22.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E NADA 12 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 Wind 13 4S 14 4S ROE 1.75% 1.73% 2.59% 1.17% 3.24% 2.39% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 18.5% 13.3% 30.8% 16.4% 25.4% 15.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
4S 1.5%-2.0% 4S 2.5% ROE 4S 15% 4S 25% 4S 4S 2.0% ROE 16%-18% 4S 4S 1 2 3-5 15 17 4S 8 4 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2,678.1 111.6 3,213.7 169.1 3,599.3 270.9 3,959.3 344.3 4,276.0 422.9 64.3 33.5 86.8 55.8 104.4 94.8 118.8 123.9 128.3 156.5-6.6 32.8 72.1 91.7 108.1 1,545.0 57.2 1,823.1 76.0 2,005.4 105.5 2,165.9 138.2 2,317.5 161.1 32.4 16.0 45.6 22.8 54.1 33.8 60.6 47.0 64.9 56.4-3.5 13.9 34.7 45.1 52.1 336.5 572.0 794.4 978.4 1,144.0 23.6 42.9 63.6 83.2 103.0 5.7 10.0 14.3 18.6 22.9 60.0 69.7 79.8 93.5 107.5 9.4 15.0 18.7 22.4 26.2 5.1 71.6 139.8 177.8 209.2 0.010 0.135 0.263 0.335 0.394 EPS 2011 6-12 2010 2 2011 1 2011 09 10 2011 10%-12% 8%-10% 2010 SUV - 10 -
16 17 8.4% 8.2% 17.8% 10.5% 12.7% 6.6%6.7%6.1% 23.1% 19.2% 37.6% 43.2% 27.1% 20.6% 29.0% 7.1% 6.2% 4.0% 33.1% 43.4% 23.5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 8 8-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-40 40-50 50 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18 2010 19 2010 SUV 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 120000 100000 80000 60000 103,961 94,359 103,958 70,327 111,397 103,084 109,652 50% 40000 0% 20000-50% -100% Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 05 06 07 08 09 10 10 30% 35% 27.9% 2011 SUV 15% 20 21 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2009 Wind - 11 -
22 08 2% 36% 33% 19% 6% 5% 7% 47% 26% 11% 6% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1.2L 1.2-1.6L 1.6-2.0L 2.0L SUV MPV 2307 24 4S 1 -- 1 -- -- 1 3 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 1 -- -- -- -- -- 1 1 -- -- -- -- -- 1 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 //JEEP 2 1 -- 1 1 1 6 2 -- -- 1 1 -- 4 8 -- -- -- -- 5 13 3 -- -- -- -- 3 6 2 2 -- -- -- 2 6 6 -- 2 2 3 13 1 -- -- 1 -- -- 2 3 1 -- 1 5 5 -- -- 1 1 3 10 3 1 -- 1 1 -- 6 3 -- -- -- -- -- 3 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 46 5 2 6 6 17 82-12 -
2 04 08 25 26 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 4S 4S 2 1 2 a 4S 2%-3% 4% 4S 4S 4S 100% 08 4 4S b 4S 4S 0.5%-1% 2% 4S 4S 50% 4S 4S 4S 3 4S 2-13 -
10 3.1%- 3.2% 3.0% 2011 2.5%-2.7% 2011 4S 4S 10:1 1:1 40% 4S 20% 2010 77.3% 2009-2010 12-18 2011-2012 20% 27 28 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Wind 2 40% 4S 4S 1-2 3-5 2% 1.2%-1.4% 1-2 4S 2011 0.2-0.4-14 -
29 30 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.1% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 04 05 06 07 1-9 04 05 06 07 1-9 31 4S / 2%-4% or 0.5%-1% 4S 4%-8% 35%-40% / 4S 1.5%-4% - 15 -
32 2011 EPS 4S 4S 0.00% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70% 1.00% 1.50% 20% 0.425 0.411 0.403 0.395 0.385 0.369 15% 0.380 0.367 0.360 0.352 0.342 0.326 13% 0.362 0.350 0.342 0.335 0.324 0.309 11% 0.344 0.332 0.325 0.317 0.307 0.292 9% 0.326 0.314 0.307 0.300 0.290 0.275 7% 0.316 0.304 0.297 0.290 0.280 0.266 5% 0.306 0.294 0.287 0.280 0.271 0.257 0% 0.280 0.269 0.262 0.255 0.247 0.233-5% 0.273 0.262 0.256 0.250 0.241 0.228 14S 3.1% 2 2011 5% 0.5% 15% 1.0% 3 2011 4S20% 40% 4 2011 9,200 5.31 2010 75 EPS 0.171 148 EPS 0.338 2011 161 2010 8.5% 2010 27.9% 48.6% 33 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 09-16 -
1.5 4S 70% 4S 4S 34 4S 15% 7% 31% 9% 7% 13% 18% 4S 35 4S 1 4S 2 40 4S 60% 4S 4S 4S 6-8 - 17 -
36 1-2 09 11 4S 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 19,320.7 21,033.4 23,657.7 26,161.5 28,462.0 30,981.9 17,928.3 19,362.6 21,686.1 23,854.7 25,763.1 27,824.1 1,392.4 1,670.9 1,971.6 2,306.8 2,698.9 3,157.8 148.3 160.9 189.8 216.2 244.7 277.3 -- 4,788.4 5,923.6 6,855.5 7,679.6 8,429.0 -- 5.1 71.6 139.8 177.8 209.2 -- 1,595.0 5,132.5 6,101.4 7,017.8 7,906.9 -- -2.9 8.8 61.6 108.1 137.1 19,320.7 27,416.8 34,713.8 39,118.4 43,159.3 47,317.8 148.3 163.1 270.2 417.6 530.6 623.6 EPS 0.338 0.307 0.509 0.786 0.999 1.174 2010 10 EPS 0.532 0.17 0.20 0.06 37 600704 100% 100% 95.1% 97.67% 100% - 18 -
38 2009 39 2010 4% 18% 38% 19% 32% 11% 27% 13% 38% 2010 2.5 1,263 11.4% 2011 2010 3 12 3 4Q10-1Q11 3 20% - 19 -
40 2010 4 96.26% 2 90.40% 394 2010 58.96% 12 99.00% A 19 97.00% B 16 98.00% 32 61.00% 9 85.00% A 10 97.00% B 6 98.00% 8 91.00% 15 88.00% 13 90.00% 520 2010 50.00% 168 2011 18.00% 2 100.00% 32 96.36% 282 2010 43.50% 163 2010 55.50% 100 2012 50.00% 1805 10 2 7.5% 10%-15% 15%-20% 09 12 2-4 3 20% 2010-2013 498 580 761 994 80.1% 16.5% 31.3% 30.7% 10-13 EPS 1.133 1.091 1.432 1.872 2011 EPS 2012-2013 10-13 PE 17 17 13 10 3-20 -
41 1H2010 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 75.0 148.3 163.1 270.2 417.6 530.6 623.6 -- 41.3% 9.9% 65.7% 54.5% 27.1% 17.5% EPS 0.171 0.338 0.307 0.509 0.786 0.999 1.174 12.1 24.8 28.5 31.9 35.1 38.7 42.5 87.1 173.1 191.6 302.1 452.7 569.3 666.1 -- 58.8% 10.7% 57.7% 49.8% 25.8% 17.0% EPS 0.198 0.394 0.361 0.569 0.852 1.072 1.254 90.0 240.0 286.8 340.9 404.4 444.9 489.4 -- 558.1% 19.5% 18.9% 18.6% 10.0% 10.0% EPS 0.205 0.546 0.540 0.642 0.761 0.838 0.921 26.0 53.9 67.3 80.8 97.0 111.5 128.2 17.5% 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% EPS 0.056 0.117 0.121 0.145 0.174 0.200 0.230 31.7 33.2 37.2 40.9 45.0 49.5 54.5 -- -- 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% EPS 0.072 0.076 0.070 0.077 0.085 0.093 0.103 233.5 497.6 579.7 760.8 994.4 1,169.8 1,331.9 80.1% 16.5% 31.3% 30.7% 17.6% 13.9% EPS 0.532 1.133 1.091 1.432 1.872 2.202 2.508 439.2 439.2 531.2 531.2 531.2 531.2 531.2-21 -
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 4,138 4,417 24,692 29,223 34,715 41,550 1,626 1,176 3,160 3,685 5,343 5,854 6.8% 459.0% 18.4% 18.8% 19.7% 1,010 510 771 855 1,011 1,209-3,485-3,623-22,852-27,235-32,341-38,674 2,730 3,846 6,213 7,313 8,683 10,384 % 84.2% 82.0% 92.5% 93.2% 93.2% 93.1% 392 531 2,824 3,334 3,940 4,692 653 795 1,840 1,988 2,374 2,876 5,758 6,062 12,968 15,187 18,978 22,139 % 15.8% 18.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% % 82.0% 88.0% 81.7% 83.8% 85.1% 85.7% -97-113 -176-152 -181-216 808 445 926 882 905 930 % 2.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 349 316 1,090 1,297 1,588 1,863-222 -256-685 -678-812 -972 % 5.0% 4.6% 6.9% 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% % 5.4% 5.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 32 32 795 652 703 750-129 -144-373 -392-483 -578 1,261 824 2,899 2,934 3,318 3,689 % 3.1% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% % 18.0% 12.0% 18.3% 16.2% 14.9% 14.3% EBIT 205 281 606 767 899 1,111 7,019 6,886 15,868 18,121 22,296 25,827 % 5.0% 6.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 1,857 1,521 1,934 1,794 1,709 1,648 1-12 -88-113 -138-123 2,716 1,418 6,582 7,712 9,160 10,956 % 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 96 1,518 3,084 3,707 4,405 5,261 11-18 -35-4 -6-3 4,668 4,457 11,600 13,214 15,274 17,865 3-1 -5 0 0 0 241 539 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,069 88 53 137 192 211 232 145 40 69 80 95 113 % 28.8% 17.8% 22.8% 22.8% 21.9% 19.1% 5,055 5,036 12,737 14,361 16,436 19,047 308 304 615 842 966 1,217 1,721 1,524 2,436 2,889 4,795 5,503 7.5% 6.9% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 243 326 695 871 1,064 1,277-3 -5-15 0 0 0 7,019 6,886 15,868 18,121 22,296 25,827 306 298 600 842 966 1,217 7.4% 6.8% 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% -91-80 -171-168 -193-243 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 29.8% 26.8% 28.5% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 214 218 429 673 773 973 0.394 0.403 0.629 1.133 1.091 1.432 67 67 153 176 194 213 4.593 4.067 5.546 6.579 9.028 10.360 148 151 276 498 579 761 1.511-2.345 5.171 1.913 1.712 2.070 3.6% 3.4% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.100 0.100 0.200 0.100 0.100 0.100 8.57% 9.91% 11.34% 17.22% 12.08% 13.82% 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2.10% 2.19% 1.74% 2.75% 2.60% 2.94% 0 218 429 673 773 973 3.43% 5.22% 7.00% 9.16% 8.25% 9.26% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 194 143 164 181-2.27% 6.75% 458.98% 18.35% 18.79% 19.69% 0-26 -95 3-26 -54 EBIT 178.78% 37.11% 115.33% 26.47% 17.28% 23.54% 0-1,008 1,742 21-2 -1 133.17% 2.38% 82.90% 80.04% 16.47% 31.25% 0-776 2,271 840 909 1,099 43.13% -1.89% 130.43% 14.20% 23.04% 15.84% -22-40 -170-207 -504-505 52 179-34 44-23 -24 32.3 23.1 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 47-115 48 192 211 232 260.0 331.3 80.3 98.0 98.0 98.0 77 25-156 29-317 -298 108.7 90.1 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 15 55 10 0 1,379 0 28.8 25.7 15.8 14.7 13.3 11.8 127 576-897 -139-83 -58-82 -224-461 -205-231 -233 23.10% 47.81% -8.52% -24.79% -45.66% -47.88% 61 407-1,348-344 1,065-292 EBIT -142.7 23.5 6.9 6.8 6.5 9.0 138-344 767 526 1,658 510 72.02% 73.14% 80.27% 79.25% 73.72% 73.75% - 22 -
0 1 2 2 6 1 7 8 10 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.00 1.89 1.84 1.84 1.80 1 2 3 4 5 1.00 = 1.01~2.0= 2.01~3.0= 3.01~4.0= 4.01~5.0= ( ) 1 2010-04-29 22.36 31.00 34.00 2 2010-07-08 14.29 N/A 3 2010-08-17 18.34 N/A 4 2010-08-17 18.34 N/A 25.79 20.79 15.79 10.79 1 2 600 43 500 400 300 200 100 5.79 0 080910 081209 090310 090604 090825 091123 100212 100514 100809 6 12 20% 6 12 10% 20% 6 12-10% 10% 6 12 10% 20% 6 12 20% - 23 -
(8621)-61038311 (8610)-66215599-8832 (86755)-82805115 (8621)-61038200 (8610)-61038200 (86755)-61038200 researchsh@gjzq.com.cn researchbj@gjzq.com.cn researchsz@gjzq.com.cn 200011 100032 518000 1088 7 27 B 4 3037 2805-24 -