I 2009 86-21-6207 8961 baowk@pasc.com.cn 2008 12 15 86-21-6248 3458 wanghexu@pasc.com.cn 1. 2. 2009 2010 6,000 2009 2020 4.65 3,876 2009 2020 1,199 3,281 1,982 2,731 3. 2009 6,000 2009 2010 2010 2011 2009 2010 4. 2009 2013 5 4 5 2005 2009 2009 2013 5. 2009 2009 5 6. 2009 3 EPS / PE 2008-12-05 2008E 2009E 2010E 2008E 2009E 2010E 601766 4.44 0.12 0.16 0.21 37.00 27.75 21.14 600967 8.33 0.18 0.32 0.37 46.28 26.03 22.51 600495 19.59 0.40 0.61 0.77 48.98 32.11 25.44 600458 10.91 0.28 0.44 0.68 38.96 24.80 16.04 601002 6.11 0.09 0.27 0.28 67.89 22.63 21.82
...4 1.1...4 1.2...4 1.3...5 1.4...6 1.5...7...8 2.1...8 2.2...9 2.3...9 2.4 2009 2020 4.65...10 2.5 2009 6,000...10 5...12 3.1...12 3.2 2009 2013...12 3.3...13 3.4...14...15 4.1 2008 7...15 4.2 2009 3...15 4.3...16 4.4...16 2/18
1...4 2 03 07...5 3...5 4...6 5 6...6 6...7 7...7 8...8 9...8 10 2009 2020...9 11 2009 2020...10 12 2009 2020 4.65...10 13 2009 2020... 11 14...12 15 2009 2013...13 16...14 17 2008 7...15 18 11 12...15 19...16 20 2008...17 3/18
1.1 GDP 1 20% GDP 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 CEIC 1.2 2006 2,500 889 181.24% 4/18
2 03 07 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CEIC 1.3 50% 30% 1981 24.75% 2007 6.09% 20.56% 13% 14% 3 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 / 0 2008 5/18
4 24000 18000 12000 6000 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 0% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 CEIC 1.4 2003 2004 10 2003 20 50% 2004 28 35% 6 5 6 1997 4 1 140 1998 10 1 140 239 1,454 2000 10 21 140 2001 10 21 4,257 2000 2 / 2004 4 18 200 2007 4 18 200 6/18
6 2000 65% 15000 30% 1500 1000 500 60% 55% 50% 12000 9000 6000 3000 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 45% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0% CEIC 1.5 0.06 27.27% 7 / / 2.0 60 1.5 50 40 1.0 30 0.5 0.0 0.06 0.22 20 10 0 8.02 9.20 CIA The World Fact-book CEIC 7/18
2.1 2008 12 2007 11 2020 12 50% 60% 8 2008 2004 09-20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2008 7.9 9 8/18
2.2 200km 350km 2004 1 2008 11 1.6 4.1 120 166 2004 2008 1,616 2009 2020 1.44 1,199 2004 2008 5,633 2009 2020 3.94 3,281 10 2009 2020 2004-2008 2009-20202007 2009-2020 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 0 10 20 30 40 50 1000 500 0 2.3 2020 12 50% 60% 2020 12 6 7.2 2007 121.4% 182.4% 9/18
11 2009 2020 2003 7.30 2.47 33.8% 1.86 25.7% 2004 7.44 2.49 33.5% 1.93 25.9% 2005 7.54 2.56 33.9% 2.02 26.7% 2006 7.71 2.64 34.2% 2.44 31.7% 2007 7.80 2.71 34.8% 2.55 32.7% 2008E 7.90 2.80 35.5% 2.66 33.7% 2010E 8.30 3.15 38.0% 3.07 37.0% 2020E 12.00 6.00 50.0% 7.20 60.0% 2003 2008 0.07 0.16 2009 2010 0.17 0.20 2011 2020 0.28 0.41 2.4 2009 2020 4.65 2009 2020 12 4.65 3,877 2007 118.89% 12 2009 2020 4.65 2009 2020 14,384 39,366 39,659 54,622 148,031 2009 2020 1,199 3,281 3,305 4,552 12,336 97.46 46.15 29.26 5.00 2009 2020 14,017.74 18,168.68 11,605.83 2,731.09 46,523.34 2009 2020 1,168.14 1,514.06 967.15 227.59 3,876.94 2.5 2009 6,000 2009 6,000 12 2009 2020 3,877 10/18
11/18 2010 2011 2009 2010 2009 2010 6,000 2011 2020 3,452 2009 2010 13 2009 2020 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
5 3.1 5 2009 C60 60 C80 80 14 D3 D2 7 4 3 (km/h) 120 120 100 100 100 (km/h) 70 N/A 44 51.5 48 (kw) 7200 9600 4800 6400 9600 ( ) 6 6 6 8 12 (kw) 1200 1600 800 800 800 3.2 2009 2013 4 5 2009 2005 2006 350 2005 9 25 4 2005 1998 2004-1.42% 2005 72.21% 12/18
2009 2013 2005 2009 2009 2013 15 2009 2013 7,000 6,000 05-09 09-13 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 3.3 2004 2005 2007 2020 1.6 2010 5,600 2010 1,000 2007 90 2008 150 1,000 760 2009 2010 380 2008 1.5 2007 550 800 1,000 2010 1,500 6,500 1,300 13/18
3.4 2009 2008 2009 2009 2008 16 EPS / PE 2008-12-05 2008E 2009E 2010E 2008E 2009E 2010E 601766 4.44 0.12 0.16 0.21 37.00 27.75 21.14 600967 8.33 0.18 0.32 0.37 46.28 26.03 22.51 600495 19.59 0.40 0.61 0.77 48.98 32.11 25.44 600458 10.91 0.28 0.44 0.68 38.96 24.80 16.04 601002 6.11 0.09 0.27 0.28 67.89 22.63 21.82 2009 5 601766 5 C80 600967 600495 600458 08 09 10 0.28 0.44 0.68 601002 2009 2010 2009 7.5 14/18
6000 4.1 2008 7 2008 7 7 17 2008 7 500 200% 400 300 150% 100% 200 100 50% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11E -50% 4.2 2009 3 11 12 10 44 40 5,400 60 65 7,000 18 11 12 1-10 11-12 0 3 6 9 12 15 15/18
2009 3 11 12 1 2 1 2 4.3 10 15km 80% 19 4.4 2009 4 2008 10 % 14.5% 51.2% 16/18
1 2007 30% 2008 155.1 6.8% 2.11% 15% 20% 2008 3.5 25.1% 2008 37% 43.8% 8.14% 20 2008 75% 65% 54% 43% 32% 22% 11% 0% 17/18
6 20% 6 10% 20% 6 ±10% 6 10% 2008 8 518048 4008866338 0755 82449257