2008 10 : 3 : 1995 1999 (CHIPS),20 90 1995 1997,, : ;, - 014-013 ;,35 49,, : 1995 1997,,, 8 %,20 %, 5815 % 75 %5815 %,,, :,,,;,,,,,,,,, 90,,, 3,,, :srvnlx @gmail. com ;,, : 200433, :jfeng @fudan. edu. cn ;,, :satohrs @econ. hit2u. ac. jp (No118106312,18203018) (05JA790020) (07JZD0023) (06CJL004) (CHIP), :70,, 11 % 35,3815 %, 20 %,5815 % 117
::,,,,,,;,,,, (difference2in2difference) : (1) 20 80,,, (2), (Modigliani Cao, 2004) (Kraay, 2000) (3),,,, 100,30 40,, 35 50 (),, Modigliani Cao (2004) 1953 2000,, Kraay (2000) 1978 1983 1984 1989, Horioka Wan (2007) (1995 2004 ), :,, ;, ( Kraay, 2000 ;Horioka Wan,2007 ;,2005) Modigliani Cao (2004),, 1998,40 1998 1998 3, 118
2008 10,, (2005) 1994 1999,1994 17 %1999 21 %Horioka Wan (2007) 1995 21 %,, 1999 26 % Modigliani Cao (2004),1994 3318 %,,,1997,1999 27 %,,( Kraay,2000) Meng (2003) (2004),,,, (),,,Feldstein (1974), 50 %, King Dicks2Mireaux (1982),,1 25 Diamond Hausman (1984) Samwick (1997) 20 (Munnell, 1974 ; Kotlikoff, 1979 ; Blinder, et al., 1980 ; Venti & Wise, 1990 ;Aso & He,2001), Hubbard (1986), Hubbard (1987),, Gale (1998), 1983,,16, ( ), (),,,, Attanasio (2003a, 2003b), Attanasio (2003a) 1992,,,,35 45, 119
:: 1995,,1997 ( 1997 ), :1997 ( ),,, 60 % 90 %, 1997 ( ),15, 20 %, 120 1997, ( ), 15,,,, 1997 ( ),,,, 1 1997 1 1997 ( ) () ( + 20 %) () 60 % 90 % + + (( 120) :20 %:1997 ; 4 %,8 %, 11 % 3 % 5815 %,, 1999 (CHIPS) 1 25 59 25 54,,,,25 53195 %,55 29141 % ;25 65145 %,40 42187 %,, 120
2008 10 1 ( 1999, ) : 1995 1999 2002, () i,, : T max t - i log C t (1) T T C t E t s. t. (1 + r) t - = i (1 + r) t - + i t = i TR- 1 t = i t = i t = TR P t (1 + r) t - i + A i (2), t, C,, r, E, P, T, TR,A,, (1) : C i = 1-1 - C t TR- 1 E t T- i +1 t = i = ((1 + r) ) t - i C i (1 + r) t - i + T t = TR P t (1 + r) t - i + A i (3) (3) i t : E t - C t E t = 1 - TR- 1 T E t, FE i = (1 + r) t -, i P i = t = i 1 - ((1 1 - T- i +1 + r) ) t - i [ FE i ΠE t + P i ΠE t + A i ΠE t ] (4) t = TR P t (1 + r) t - i, FE i i ; P i i (4), t - i t,,i = t,(4) (1 - )Π(1 - T- t +1 ), () t,,,, 121
:: : (1),, (2),,,,(1 - )Π(1 - T - t + 1 ), () (), : SR it = c 1 + 1 t + 1 n d n + 1 PW it + X it 1 + it (5), SR it i t PW it i t t d n, X it,,, ; ;, 1 < 0, (5), (6) PW it,, SR ijt j i t SR ijt = c 2 + 2 t + 2 n d n + 2 PW ijt + n ( d n PW ijt ) + X ijt 2 + ijt (6), (6) n () 1995 1999 2002, 1995 1999,1995,1999 2002 1995 11,1999 6 2002 1995 11, 25 59 25 54,,,,, = 0198, 1993 2003 = 0195 122
2008 10,1995 3595,1999 1595, 1995 2228,1999 1006 2 () 11 1995 1999 2002 20 59,,, 1995 1999 25 59, probit,,,1995, 1999,018 %0195 %(Meng, 2003) 2 1995 1999 1995 1999 ( %) 25 29 5116 3138 7183 5109 30 34 1711 11163 23133 13159 35 39 25109 27124 22146 28135 40 44 31182 31151 25139 24162 45 49 15167 20108 13146 20103 50 59 5116 6116 7153 8132 ( %) 45130 45143 () 10135 11100 11195 12142 (, %) 64100 63145 64196 66133 ( ) 1130 1178 1140 2108 ( ) 3135 8118 3191 9197 3101 2191 3100 2187 2228 1006 1367 589 : 21,,,,,, 123
:: 3 1999 1995,,,,,, 31 : ( ),,,, (, 2004) : SR1 = (- )Π, ; ; 3 ( ) () 1995 1999 ( %) 25 29 18124 15143-15138 30 34 19150 16115-17117 35 39 18195 15106-20151 40 44 18154 15126-17173 45 49 19119 17149-8187 50 59 17175 15159-12117 25 29 17187 14108-21119 30 34 19165 14140-26173 35 39 19125 14174-23144 40 44 19123 15131-20141 45 49 19139 16199-12140 50 59 18160 16184-9147 SR2 = (- 25 29 26117 38128 46124 )Π 30 34 25158 36198 44158 35 39 24150 34162 41134, 40 44 24135 31131 28157 SR1 2 % 45 49 25102 34114 36144 4 50 59 23146 34160 47148, 1999 1995, SR1,17180, 17174 SR2 18132,21147 1995,,,, 3 1995, 1999 124
2008 10,, 4 ( %) SR1 () 1995 1999 1995 1999 25 29-2109 18188 20197 4165 26142 21177 30 34 2131 18195 16164 9164 25193 16129 35 39 2159 19140 16181 10136 27118 16182 40 44 0106 18105 17199 10136 27160 17124 45 49 0199 17119 1612 12117 30126 18109 50 59-1105 17112 18117 9157 29128 19171 25 29 8152 34167 26115 14132 41154 27122 30 34 2174 17156 14182 10184 27149 16165 35 39 2174 19160 16186 10178 29191 19113 40 44 2137 17192 15155 11177 29162 17185 45 49 2112 18126 16114 6197 32198 26101 50 59 4126 21117 16191 15118 37116 21198 (),(5) (5 1 2 ),,,,,,,,,, 5 3 8 (3 4 ),,1999 1995 ;,, 25 29,,, ( PW) ( PE) (AT) 5 6,PW,SR1-0133,PW 100,33 ;SR2-0128, PW,,, SR2,, (Attanasio, 2003a),,, ( Gales, 1998) 125
:: 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) SR1 SR2 SR1 SR2 SR1 SR2 SR1 SR2 1999 01148 333 01191 333 01175 333 01218 333 01117 333 01167 333 01113 333 01172 333 (9161) (14102) (8158) (11188) (4188) (7187) (4143) (7166) - 01040 333-01036 333 ( - 3165) ( - 3180) 30 34-01062 333-01047 333 01007 01012-01029 - 01022-01041 - 01038 ( - 3126) ( - 2167) (0129) (0152) ( - 1115) ( - 0193) ( - 1119) ( - 1118) 35 39-01087 333-01066 333 01011 01021-01051 3-01036 - 01069-01054 ( - 4106) ( - 3138) (0147) (1100) ( - 1181) ( - 1140) ( - 1190) ( - 1161) 40 44-01123 333-01080 333-01007 01025-01085 333-01049 - 01105 33-0107 3 ( - 4190) ( - 3151) ( - 0132) (1119) ( - 2161) ( - 1161) ( - 2149) ( - 1181) 45 49-01153 333-01080 333-01003 01052 3-01088 33-01029 - 01111 33-01048 ( - 5100) ( - 2192) ( - 0110) (2140) ( - 2126) ( - 0181) ( - 2123) ( - 1107) 50 59-01145 333-01083 33-01005 01029-01084 3-01049 - 01127 33-01091 ( - 3174) ( - 2141) ( - 0117) (1107) ( - 1169) ( - 1110) ( - 1199) ( - 1158) Π (PW) - 01257 333 ( - 6120) - 01220 333 ( - 6122) - 01326333 ( - 6114) - 01280 333 ( - 6125) - 01363 333 ( - 5154) - 0130 333 ( - 5134) Π (PE) - 01149 333 ( - 4109) - 01133 333 ( - 4109) - 0111433 ( - 2154) - 01108 333 ( - 2169) - 01157 33 ( - 2185) - 0114 333 ( - 2173) Π (AT) - 01077 3 ( - 1192) - 01071 3 ( - 2105) - 01089 3 ( - 2100) - 01072 3 ( - 1190) - 0109 3 ( - 1175) - 01083 3 ( - 1188) 01000-01001 01001 0 01001 0 01001-01001 ( - 0123) ( - 0198) (0161) ( - 0125) (0149) ( - 0131) (0138) ( - 0161) () 01057 333 01047 333 01037 333 01030 333 01061 333 01052 333 01076 333 01063 333 (6102) - 5151 (3148) (3125) (5127) (5107) (5138) (5106) 01006 333 01005 333 01004 33 01004 33 01006 333 01006 333 01006 33 01004 3 (3165) - 3139 (2103) (2119) (3104) (3116) (2138) (1194) - 01015-01001 - 0102-01007 - 01018-01006 - 01007 01005 ( - 1143) ( - 0115) ( - 1156) ( - 0163) ( - 1139) ( - 0151) ( - 0147) (0138) 11 11 11 11 11 11 6 6 R 011349 011835 011088 011651 011469 011990 011853 012385 4322 4322 2963 2963 2904 2904 1991 1991 :1 2 ;3 8 25 29 t ; 3 33 333 10 % 5 % 1 %(6 ) 126
2008 10,PE AT,,,, 1999 1995,1999 1995 1995, 1995 1999, 1995 1999, (5 7 8 ),, (6) (6), SR1, 35 39 40 44, 0120 0128 SR2 35 39 40 44 45 49, 0118 0129 0120, 6,,40 44 6 PW (2) 40 44,Attansio (2003a) 6 (,PW ) (9) (10) (11) (12) SR1 SR2 SR1 SR2 1999 01115 333 01166 333 01112 333 01172 333 (4177) (7177) (4134) (7158) Π (PW) - 01137-01079 - 01202-0111 ( - 1127) ( - 0179) ( - 1145) ( - 0187) age - d2 3 PW - 01076-01075 - 01066-0108 ( - 0160) ( - 0162) ( - 0142) ( - 0154) age - d3 3 PW - 01197 3-01179 3-01144 - 01135 ( - 1170) ( - 1164) ( - 1100) ( - 1102) age - d4 3 PW - 01283 33-01291 333-01256 3-01272 33 ( - 2142) ( - 2170) ( - 1172) ( - 2102) age - d5 3 PW - 01172-01196 3-01147 - 0119 ( - 1135) ( - 1171) ( - 0192) ( - 1134) age - d6 3 PW - 01199-01255 - 01171-01251 ( - 1135) ( - 1189) ( - 0189) ( - 1143) Π (PE) - 01126 333-01127 333-01166 333-01152 333 ( - 2178) ( - 3114) ( - 3100) ( - 3104) Π (AT) - 01089 33-01073 3-01092 3-01085 3 ( - 1199) ( - 1193) ( - 1177) ( - 1193) 11 11 6 6 R 011492 012021 011871 012411 2904 2904 1991 1991 :,5 age - d2 :30 34 ; age - d3 :35 39 ;age - d4 :40 44 ;age - d5 :45 49 ;age - d6 :50 54, 127
::,, ;,,,, (5 2), SR1 SR2,, ;,, 2 ( ) 1995 1999, 20 90 1995 1997,,,, - 014-013 (Feldstein, 1974 ; King & Dicks2Mireaux,1982 ; Samwick, 1997),35 49,,,,,,,,,,, 20 90,,,,, (matching),,,,, 128
2008 10,; 1997,,, (2007) (3) (6), : 1995 1999 2002, 20 59,, ;,, ( ( 3 ) ) R- 1 L TW i = {[ ^W i ( s) (1 + g s ) ( s - a) ]Π(1 + r s ) ( s- a) } ( 3 ) s = a i LTW i i a R - 1 ; ^W i ( s) i s ; a ; R ( 60, 55 ) ; g s i s ; r s g r,4 %, 1995,,, ( ), D L Pold i = { ^w ( i, R- 1) x (1 + g s ) ( s - R) Π(1 + r s ) ( s- a) } ( 3 3 ) s = R L Pold i i R D ; x ; D ; 1999, 1,, (2001) 29 46,= 3 3, = 3, 113 % (2007) ( 3 3 ),2007 :, 3,,2005 :, 2,2001 :( ),,2004 :, 4 Aso, Yoshibumi and Lixin He, 2001,Public Pensions and Household Wealth, Economic Review ( Keizai kenkyuu), 348 358. Attanasio, O. P. and A. Brugiavini, 2003a,Social Security and HouseholdsSaving, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1089 1119. Attanasio, O. P. and S. Rohwedder, 2003b,Pension Wealth and Household Saving : Evidence form Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom, American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 5, 1499 1521. 1978,, 75 %,90 % (2001) 129
:: Blinder, A. S., R. H. Gordon and D. E. Wise, 1980,Reconsiding the Work Disincentive Effects of Social Security, National Tax Journal, 33, 431 442. Diamond, P. A. and J. A. Hausman, 1984,Individual Retirement and Savings Behavior, Journal of Public Economics 23, 81 114. Feldstein, Martin, 1974,Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Formation, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, no. 5 (SeptemberΠOctober), 905 926. Gale, W. G., 1998,The Effect of Pension on Household Wealth : A Reevaluation of Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, 706 723. Horioka, C. Y. and J. Wan, 2007,The Determinants of Household Saving in China : A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 178. Press. Hubbard, R. Glenn. 1986,Pension Wealth and Individual Saving, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 18 (2), May, 167 Hubbard, R. Glenn. 1987,Unceratin Lifetimes, Pensions, and Individual Saving, Pension Economics, Chicago University, Chicago Karry, A., 2000,Household saving in China, World Bank Economic Reviews, Vol 14, No. 3, 545 570. King, M. A. and L. Dicks Mireaux, 1982,Asset Holdings and the Life Cycle, Economic Journal, 247 267. Kotlikoff, L., 1979,Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation, American Economic Review, 69 : 396 410. Meng, X., 2002,Unemployment, Consumption Smoothing, and Precautionary Saving in Urban China, Journal of Comparative Economics 31, 465 485. Modigliani, F. and S.L. Cao, 2004,The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life2cycle Hypothesis, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 42, No. 1, 145 170. Munnell, A. H., 1974, The Effect of Social Security on Personal Savings, Cambridge, Mass : Ballinger. Samwick, A., 1997,The Impact of Social Security Reform on Saving, National Tax Association Proceedings, 178 186. Venti, S. F. and Wise, D. A., 1990,Have IRAs Increased U. S. Saving? Evidence from Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 661 698. Pension Reform and Household Saving : the Chinese Case He Lixin a, b, Feng Jin b and Sato Hiroshi a (a : School of Economics, Fudan University ; b : Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University) Abstract :This paper estimates the effect of public pension reform on the household saving in urban China and explains the rise of Chinese household saving ratio in middle and late 1990es from a new perspective. The 1995 1997 pension reform has caused changes in the pension wealth of the employees in non2public sectors. This exogenous varies of pension wealth are used to identify the effect of pension wealth on household saving ratio. Using data from the urban household income survey of 1995 and 1999, we find that pension wealth has a statistically significant substituting effect on households saving and this effect is - 013 to - 014 on average. However, the effect varies across different age groups : in the case when the age of the household head is 35 49, the effect is significant, while in other age groups, the effect is not significant. Key Words :Pension Wealth ; Household Saving ; Life Cycle Hypothesis JEL Classification :D12, D91, E21, H55 ( : ) ( : ) 130