2014 4 205 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 4 2014 Tot. No. 205 计划生育理论与实践 陈卫 1 2, 靳永爱 1. 100872 2. 100872 : 本文在微观视角上考察中国计划生育政策的执行情况, 分析违反政策生育行为发生 的水平和影响因素根据 2005 年全国 1% 抽样调查数据计算,1990 年以来违反政策生育的 比例为 18. 95%, 但不同人群和不同政策类型之间存在很大差异在控制宏观和中观因素的 条件下, 回归模型对违反政策生育行为的微观因素进行了实证分析, 表明个人特征显著影响 违反政策生育行为的发生, 同时, 社会环境 家庭因素也具有显著影响本文的研究对于完 善生育政策具体重要的启示意义 计划生育政策 ; 政策类型 ; 生育行为 ; 性别偏好 C923 A 1000-4149 2014 04-0118 - 11 DOI 10. 3969 /j. issn. 1000-4149. 2014. 04. 013 How Well Has China s Family Planning Policy Worked A Micro Level Analysis CHEN Wei 1 JIN Yongai 2 1. Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Beijing 100872 China 2. School of Sociology and Population Studies Renmin University of China Beijing 100872 China Abstract This paper is to investigate the levels patterns and determinants of unauthorized fertility behavior using the 2005 National 1% Population Survey. Results show that the national rate of unauthorized births averaged at 18. 95% over the last 20 years. The rate for different policy areas varies substantially. Factors at macro meso and micro levels have significant effects on unauthorized fertility behavior. This research have important implications for revising and improving 2013-12 - 31 2014-04 - 30 09BRK003 10XNI013 118
China s family planning policy. Keywords family planning policy types of fertility policy fertility behavior sex preference 1 2 3 4 Bongaarts 5 119
2014 4 2005 1% 1. 2. 2005 1% 2005 20% R34 35 1990 120 80 20 90 2 3 35 6 41990 2005 15 5 36976 120
3. 1 0 19 7 2000 345 335 2005 8 1. 3 1. 3 ~ 1. 6 1. 6 9 1998 10 1 1998 10 1998 10 1998 10 35 2005 30 2005 35 1970 2005 2005 30 0. 3% 2 35 4. 2005 1 5. Logistic 1 2 http / /www. 34law. com /lawfg /law /1797 /3122 /law_ 892417894309. shtml 2013 10 30 2005 121
2014 4 表 1 研究的变量列表 1. 2005 1% 1990 35 18. 95% / 38. 79% 1990 10 11 21. 69% 18. 43% 1 17. 91% 36. 82% 图 1 不同政策地区的违反政策生育情况 2 122
表 2 不同政策地区的孩次构成情况 % 1 23. 89 44. 95 82. 09 63. 18 86. 57 2 58. 00 48. 05 15. 83 33. 20 11. 72 3 18. 43 7. 00 2. 08 3. 62 1. 71 500 23. 27% 5000 7. 27% 17. 86% 19. 06% 95% 27. 12% 3. 49% 13. 9% 60. 2% 25. 9% 37. 83% 2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 1 123
2014 4 1 表 3 回归模型结果 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0. 87 * 0. 90 0. 65 0. 75 * 0. 65 ** 0. 42 *** 0. 81^ 0. 65 *** 0. 78 * 0. 15 *** 0. 14 *** 0. 14^ 0. 13 *** 0. 08 *** 0. 10 *** 0. 17 * 0. 10 *** 0. 14 ** 0. 56 *** 0. 53 *** 0. 71 0. 31 *** 0. 28 *** 0. 40 *** 0. 85 0. 55 *** 0. 91 2. 37 *** 2. 80 *** 3. 81 *** 0. 85 0. 67 ** 1. 20 4. 16 *** 2. 05 *** 5. 57 *** 0. 72 *** 0. 45 *** 0. 44 * 0. 60 0. 88 0. 74 1. 25^ 2. 14 *** 1. 24^ 2. 01 *** 4. 04 *** 0. 95 0. 84 * 1. 03 1. 17 1. 05 1. 19 1. 05 0. 90 1. 09 0 ~ 500 500 ~ 1000 0. 91 * 0. 90 0. 91 0. 75 *** 0. 85 * 0. 68 *** 1. 04 1. 00 1. 04 1000 ~ 2000 0. 88 ** 0. 80 ** 0. 72^ 0. 73 *** 0. 71 *** 0. 70 ** 1. 23 * 1. 04 1. 20 * 2000 ~ 3000 0. 86 * 0. 78 ** 0. 93 0. 56 ** 0. 67 ** 0. 27 ** 1. 19 0. 97 1. 33 3000 ~ 5000 0. 83^ 0. 78 * 0. 96 0. 68 0. 70^ 0. 67 0. 94 1. 54 0. 74 5000 0. 90 0. 86 1. 36 0. 22 * 0. 33 ** 0. 98 2. 04 1. 38 1. 66 0. 95 *** 0. 91 *** 0. 98 0. 99 0. 93 *** 0. 99 0. 97 * 0. 89 *** 0. 97 * 0. 78 ** 0. 81 0. 88 0. 90 1. 17 1. 06 0. 61 *** 0. 82^ 0. 56 *** 0. 47 *** 0. 39 *** 0. 44 * 0. 65 ** 0. 89 0. 72 0. 41 *** 0. 73 ** 0. 36 *** / 0. 21 *** 0. 19 *** 0. 20 ** 0. 42 *** 0. 63 * 0. 44 * 0. 26 *** 0. 49 *** 0. 24 *** 0. 11 *** 0. 11 *** 0. 15 * 0. 58 *** 1. 09 0. 95 0. 86 * 1. 18 1. 19 * 1. 05 1. 05 1. 30 ** 1. 02 1. 30 ** 3. 94 *** 3. 50 *** 3. 38 *** 2. 43 *** 1. 84 *** 2. 44 * 2. 54 ** 1. 87 ** 4. 68 *** 1. 11 ** 1. 31 *** 1. 14 1. 19 * 1. 21 ** 1. 16 1. 23 ** 1. 06 1. 36 *** 0. 37 *** 0. 11 *** 0. 25 *** 0. 14 *** 2. 88 *** 2. 28 *** 12. 11 *** 0. 16 * 0. 28 *** 0. 14 *** 0. 17 *** 0. 22 *** 0. 15 *** 1. 17 *** 1. 18 *** 1. 19 *** 1. 08 *** 1. 13 *** 1. 003 1. 21 *** 1. 26 *** 1. 21 *** Pseudo R2 0. 1690 0. 2865 0. 2071 0. 1897 0. 2428 0. 1222 0. 2311 0. 1945 0. 1945 LR chi2 7 6069. 18 4892. 65 483. 21 1748. 91 2946. 3 451. 72 2207. 05 2317. 17 1638. 26 36976 18166 3253 8817 8817 4584 9993 9993 7606 1. ^p < 0. 1 * p < 0. 05 ** p < 0. 01 *** P < 0. 001 2. 3. 124
4. 27% 2 1. 01 3. 04 20 70 1 4 45% 43% 5 5% 表 4 按政策类型与受教育程度划分的违反政策生育比例 % 24. 55 664 21. 16 4088 15. 90 4944 9. 43 297 23. 82 424 24. 53 3371 19. 99 4702 13. 75 320 40. 74 162 44. 33 1976 22. 93 7818 6. 31 8210 33. 33 66 44. 90 813 19. 11 5771 6. 00 8037 45. 83 96 43. 94 1163 33. 71 2047 20. 81 173 5 1 80. 85% 19. 15% 125
2014 4 3 表 5 按政策类型与是否有养老保险划分的 违反政策生育比例 % 5000 7. 53 186 18. 64 9807 5. 91 406 22. 45 8411 5000 5. 37 8449 28. 81 9717 500 4. 89 8137 24. 03 6550 17. 95 312 38. 68 3167 U 12 2000 10% 2000 5% 4 5% 1 126
3. 94 11% 1 5 63% 80% 2. 28 12. 11 2005 1% 1990 35 18. 95% 127
2014 4 13 ~ 14 2000 2000 0 ~ 3 340 15 16 ~ 17 18 1. J. 2009 2. 2. J. 1991 2. 3. 2008 6. 4. J. J. 2011 1. 5 Bongaarts J. Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post-transitional Societies J. Population and Development Review 2001 27. 6. J. 2008 11. 7. M. 2009. 8 7. 9. J. 2005 1. 10 7. 11. J. 2003 5. 12. M. 2004. 13. J. 2010 1. 14. J. 2002 3. 15 13. 16. J. 2009 4. 17. 1990 J. 2004 2. 18 17. [ 责任编辑武玉, 方志 ] 128