2011 2011 6 22 2011 7.51%1-5 4 2011 2004 2011 1000 110kv / 33% 23% 12% 1% -10% -21% -32% 10-6-22 10-9-18 10-12-15 11-3-13 11-6-9 S0550511010003 TEL: (8621)6336 7000-315 FAX: (8621)6337 3209 Email: yangjl@nesc.cn : 45 20 : 200002
...3...4...7...9...11...13...15 2
1.1 2010 2010 2011 2011 6 20 23.28% 6.65% 1 1 1 WIND 1.2 2011-6-20 85 1 (2011E) 25~30 (2012E) 15-20 // 1 PE (TTM) PE (2011E) PE(2012E) PB / 28.42 22.24 17.70 4.40 33.28 26.99 19.07 2.70 45.98 23.76 17.11 4.66 / 39.45 21.22 15.85 4.18 48.76 32.35 22.92 4.75 // 38.11 24.39 18.28 10.07 44.07 26.96 18.67 3.86 52.66 29.63 18.23 5.92 // 46.89 29.13 20.66 4.45 WIND 3
2006 2 2008 TTM 20 TTM 30 2 5 WIND 2.1 2011 7.51%4 2011 2925 741 3666 2010 3410 3 2011 2010 7.51% 3 4 2011 4
2010 4 4 271 23.18%5 275 13.17%2011 1-5 955 2010 6.74% 26% 6~12 2011 4 2010-2011 1-5 2.2 2.55 2.05 5000 2.55 5000 5000 1.55 1.53 66.7% 14.72% 17.44% 5 1 220-750kv 800kv 1000kv 110kv 2 570 5
3 a. b. IGBT c. UPS d. 5 2011 2 5 3 20%-// 4 3 40%// 5 4 20% 800kv 220-750kv 2011 2 2011 / 6 3 2 1 7 5 0 5 12 5 4 1 / 17 13 10 3 9 3 2 1 // 7 4 3 1 9 4 3 0 7 4 4 0 // 11 5 5 0 WIND 6
3.1 2011 1 2011 2010 2 2010 110kV66kv 10kv 6 7 2011 2-4 1 2011 2-3 6 LME 3 LME3 WIND 7 Mysteel 7
3.2 10% 20% 5 2861.1 572.2 7 8 2011 518.3 2010 197.3 2011 2011 16.7 16.4 107.4 58.2 111.3 35.9 172.4 2011 19 2012 2010 6 2011 2011 5500-6000 2010 4500 30% 2011 144 1.3 2010 24 1122 8 2011 110kv 220kv 2010 8
2010 / 2011 4.1 2011 2004 2011 9 4 640 1300 1400 9 2011 2010 9
2009 3 14.05%18.15%20.24% 7.24%8.13%7.97% 2008 3 2009 3803.31 11.62 100 906.51 14.05 23.83 0.5 490.28 18.15 12.89 0.71 666.85 7.24 17.53-0.72 744.73 8.13 19.58-0.63 364.12 20.24 9.57 0.68 630.83 7.97 16.59-0.56 2009 6:4 3.5-4.0% 4 4 2010 1-11 2009 1-11 2008 1-11 2007 1-11 2006 1-11 1369.88 1118.44 988.52 874.76 765.18 34430 29282 27692.41 25533.42 21903.19 3.98% 3.82% 3.57% 3.43% 3.49% 4.2 800-3000 500 600 800 800 1000 -- 1000 2009 1 6 10
283 500 2010 8 43 300 2010 12 31 2011 3 15 2011 12-1000 2011 6 20 5 24 -±800 2011 6 19 ±800 2011-2-3 2012-2013 5.1 220kv-750kv 110kv 95% 10% 60%-70% 5 300 10 60 10 11
5.2 3075 11 25.44% 691 21.34% 13.36% 19% 11 4200 1116 5316 1063.2 3 3000 2010 7 2010-2012 2000 667 2/3 110kv 5 2010/07/12-13 2010/09/14 2010/10/16 2010/01/05 2011/05/10 2011 854 2010 120 11 94.2 622 2011 12
232 "" "" GTOIGBT GTO GTRMOSFET IGBT IGCT 12 // SVC SVG//UPS 12 2011 13
6.1 3kv-10kv 70% 2005 9.4 2010 50 40% 80% 6 2009-2010 25% 40% 2011 30-35% 25MVA ABB 6 2009A 2010A 2009A 2010A 300048.SZ 29,566 38,740 31.03% 40.02% 35.05% -4.97% 002169.SZ 20,006 28,753 43.72% 32.19% 34.07% 1.88% 300040.SZ 18,320 17,594-3.96% 32.27% 32.72% 0.45% 002121.SZ 496 4,484 804.03% 18.99% 29.05% 10.06% 6.2 690V-3KV 690V 14
9% 15-20%2010 30% 200 7 76% SIEMENSABBDANFOSS 4 2008 7.5% 7 2009A 2010A 2009A 2010A 300124.SZ 3.09 3.56 9.14 12.07 002334.SZ 7.01 6.82 8.03 10.91 002527.SZ 3.18 3.27 4.79 4.34 300048.SZ 1.60 1.53 2.11 1.95 002169.SZ 2.38 2.40 1.75 1.44 8 / 15
8 2011 9 EPS/ PE 2011-6-22 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 600089.SH 322.07 12.22 0.79 0.76 0.98 15.4 16.1 12.5 600406.SH 370.04 35.23 0.90 0.74 1.15 39.0 47.8 30.6 600268.SH 78.01 12.28 0.42 0.32 0.48 29.2 38.6 25.6 000400.SZ 101.76 26.90 0.39 0.56 0.79 69.4 47.8 34.3 601877.SH 168.24 16.74 0.64 0.82 1.02 26.3 20.5 16.4 300001.SZ 41.80 20.86 0.85 0.78 1.09 24.7 26.8 19.2 601616.SH 77.15 14.89 0.49 0.56 0.81 30.3 26.6 18.5 002121.SZ 57.68 14.54 0.50 0.58 0.80 29.2 25.2 18.1 002546.SZ 30.53 36.35 1.32 1.25 1.69 27.6 29.0 21.5 002123.SZ 105.49 20.93 0.80 0.73 1.03 26.3 28.6 20.3 300048.SZ 45.46 18.47 0.82 0.69 0.95 22.6 26.8 19.4 002334.SZ 60.65 49.88 0.95 1.51 2.18 52.4 33.1 22.9 300124.SZ 143.06 66.23 2.04 1.68 2.47 32.5 39.4 26.8 002527.SZ 39.98 19.99 0.40 0.54 0.71 49.9 36.7 28.0 16
: 6 12 6 12 6 12 : 6 12 15% 6 12 5 15% 6 12 ±5% 6 12 5% 17