Morning Research Department Table of Contents 目录 22 December 2016 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 China Resources Cement (01313 HK): Electricity supply agreement with CRP 华润水泥 (01313 HK): 与华润电力签订电力供应协议 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 EPS Est. Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 Title 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 Change? 盈利预测 是否改变 58.com Inc WUBA US China s Leading Classification Information Portal, "Accumulate" US$40.00 -- Accumulate -- N 58 同城 WUBA US 中国领先的分类信息门户, 收集 US$40.00 -- 收集 -- 否 Harbin Electric 01133 HK Surrounded by Uncertainty, Maintain Neutral HK$3.50 Neutral -- Y 哈尔滨电气 01133 HK 被各种不确定因素笼罩, 维持 中性 HK$3.50 中性 -- 是 Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附 : 行业和公司焦点, 最新报告摘要中文版 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 25,000 14,000 12,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 10,000 8,000 17,000 Dec/15 Mar/16 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 Source: Bloomberg 6,000 Dec/15 Mar/16 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 Source: Bloomberg See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7
Industry and Company Focus China Resources Cement (01313 HK): Electricity supply agreement with CRP Analyst: Sean Xiang What happened: China Resources Cement ( CRC or the Company ) and China Resources Power ( CRP ) entered into a framework agreement to purchase and supply electricity for one year from Jan. 2017 to Dec. 2017. The proposed annual cap for this direct electricity supply agreement is expected to be RMB900 million. Comments and Views: Subject to CRC s electricity cost per tonnage of cement production, we estimate that this electricity supply annual cap will account for approximately 32% of the total electricity costs for CRC s annual cement production. By adopting the cost saving rate from direct power supply that CRC disclosed in its 1H16 report, if such rate holds constant in 2017, we estimate that this annual electricity supply from CRP will bring approximately HK$96.0 million cost deduction, which represents around 0.5% of CRC s total COGS forecasts in FY17. As such, this direct power supply with CRP is expected to cut CRC s COGS by approximately 0.5% in FY17, lifting CRC s FY17 gross profit margin by 0.4 ppt while holding other assumptions unchanged.. Investment suggestion: Current investment rating for CRC is Accumulate with TP of HK$3.60. Latest Reports 58.com Inc (WUBA US): China s Leading Classification Information Portal, "Accumulate" Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: US$40.00 Analyst: Ray Zhao Report Date: 2016-12-21 Summary 58.com Inc owns the largest classification information portal in China. In 3Q16, revenue reached USD306.5 mn, up 43.9% yoy. Non GAAP operating profit reached USD40.0 mn. Non GAAP net profit reached USD29.9 mn. Key points: 1) The Company is undertaking a T-shaped expansion strategy. The Company is shifting from a PC classification information portal to mobile long tail e-commerce, and is expected to expand into recruitment, housing, automobile, life services, and used goods trading businesses. The property segment contributed around 45% of total revenue in 3Q16. 2) Tengcheng Plan will be act as glue to Tencent and the Company's ecosystem. In the Tengcheng Plan, both parties will share user big data, connect service scenarios, improve ad conversion rates and start up social recruitment. 3) The Company's recruitment and e-commerce might create great synergy in the future. The Company's online recruitment business might become its main revenue driver in 2-3 years. In the service industry, convenient recruitment could improve the operation of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which could also increase their ad spending. Japan Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) is the Company's ideal peer. Target Price is USD40.00 and investment rating is "Accumulate". The Company and Tencent's in-depth cooperation will be an important catalyst. Our FY16-FY18 net profit per ADS estimates are USD-0.881, USD-0.144 and USD0.385. Our TP is set at USD40.00, representing 4.3x 2017E PS. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7
Harbin Electric (01133 HK): Surrounded by Uncertainty, Maintain Neutral Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$3.50 Analyst: Jun Zhu Report Date: 2016-12-21 Summary Investment in conventional power generating infrastructure is expected to continue to decline. Official figures from NEA revealed that newly added thermal and hydro capacity dropped respectively by 29.6% and 32.6% during the first 11 months of 2016. Investment in power generating infrastructure in China during the period totaled RMB 268.9 bn, down YoY by 12.7%. We expect the investment in traditional power sources to further decline going forward. SOE reform will be a critical theme in 2017. The recently issued 13 th Five-Year Electricity Development Plan indicated that the development in power infrastructure over the next few years will be concentrated on increasing the capacity of renewable energy and on upgrading existing coal fired power plants. More than 150 GW of coal fired power projects are expected to be called off or indefinitely postponed during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period. Earnings forecasts were adjusted given a better-than-expected result in 1H16. The net earnings of RMB 130 mn recorded in 1H16 (up YoY by 35.7%) were above our and market expectation, therefore we have adjusted our assumptions and earnings forecasts. Our revised EPS from FY16 to FY18 is RMB 0.174, RMB 0.193 and RMB 0.228, respectively. We raise our TP of HK$ 3.50 but maintain the investment rating of Neutral. The new TP corresponds to 16.2x FY17 PER or 0.3x FY17 PBR. Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe (David Liu) 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 ( 刘静骁 ) Country 国家 U.S. 美国 Indicator 指标名称 Existing Home Sales (mn units) 年化成屋销售量 ( 百万套 ) Data Period 数据期间 November 11 月 Current Value 当期值 MoM / QoQ 环比变动 YoY 同比变动 Market Consensus 市场一致预期 5.61 0.7% 15.4% 5.50 Source: U.S. National Association of Realtors, Bloomberg. 数据来源 : 美国国家地产经纪人协会 彭博 See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 7
Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 华润水泥 (01313 HK): 与华润电力签订电力供应协议分析员 : 向宇豪 事件描述 : 华润水泥 ( CRC 或 公司 ) 与华润电力 ( CRP ) 签订从 2017 年 1 月到 2017 年 12 月为期一年的电力采购及供应框架协议 该直接电力供应协议的建议全年上限额为人民币 9 亿元 观点评论 : 基于华润水泥的吨水泥生产电耗, 我们估计该年度电力供应上限将相当于华润水泥年度水泥生产合计电力费用的约 32% 如果采用华润水泥于 2016 年上半年半年报里所披露的直供电的费率节约率, 若此费率节约率在 2017 年保持不变, 我们估计这次来自华润电力的全年电力供应将带来大约 9600 万港元的成本削减, 大约相当于华润水泥 2017 财年销售成本预测的 0.5% 因此, 此次来自华润电力的直供电将使得华润水泥于 2017 年的销售成本下降约 0.5%, 如果其他假设保持不变, 其将使得华润水泥 2017 年的毛利率提升 0.4 个百分点 投资建议 : 目前对华润水泥的投资评级为 收集, 目标价为 3.60 港元 最新报告 58 同城 (WUBA US): 中国领先的分类信息门户, 收集 评级 : 收集 6-18m 目标价 : US$40.00 分析员 : 赵睿报告日期 : 2016-12-21 报告摘要 58 同城是中国最大的分类信息网站 2016 年第三季度收入达到 306.5 百万美元, 同比增 43.9% 非 GAAP 经营利 润达到 40.0 百万美元 非 GAAP 净利润达到 29.9 百万美元 要点 :1)58 集团正在执行 T 型扩张战略 58 集团正在从分类信息门户网站向移动长尾电商转型, 将在招聘, 房产, 汽车, 生活服务, 和二手商品交易五个细分市场上扩张 2016 年第三季度房产业务贡献 45% 的收入 2) 腾城计划 将加速腾讯和 58 集团的生态融合 腾城计划旨在打通双方的用户大数据, 对接服务场景, 提高广告转化率, 并塑造 社交招聘 3)58 集团的招聘和电商未来可能产生较大的协同效应 公司的在线招聘业务增长迅速, 将在未来 2~3 年成为收入的最主要驱动力 在服务业经济中, 便捷的招聘提高了中小企业的生存能力, 也带来更多广告支出 日本 的 Recruit 控股 (6098 JP) 是 58 集团的最好的同业对照 目标价为 40.00 美元, 投资评级为 收集 我们认为 58 同城和腾讯的深入合作将是重要催化剂 我们 2016-2018 财 年的每 ADS 盈利预测为 -0.881 美元,-0.144 美元, 和 0.385 美元 目标价 40.00 美元, 相当于 4.3 倍 2017 年预测市 销率 See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 7
哈尔滨电气 (01133 HK): 被各种不确定因素笼罩, 维持 中性 评级 : 中性 6-18m 目标价 : HK$3.50 分析员 : 朱俊杰报告日期 : 2016-12-21 报告摘要 国内对传统发电设施的投资预计将持续下降 来自能源局的官方数据显示 2016 前 11 个月的火电及水电新增装机分别创下了 29.6% 和 32.6% 的同比下滑 期内全国对发电设施的投资达人民币 2,689 亿人民币, 同比跌 12.7% 我们预计国内对传统电源的投资将于未来进一步下滑 国企改革将成为公司于 2017 年的主题 能源局于近期下发的电力发展十三五规划中指出国内于未来几年的电力基础设施发展将侧重于提升可再生能源的装机容量以及将现有煤电厂进行升级改造 预计在十三五期间将有超过 150 吉瓦的煤电项目被取消或无限期推迟 鉴于好于预期的 2016 上半年业绩, 我们调整了盈利预测 2016 上半年录得的 130 百万人民币的净利润 ( 同比升 35.7%) 好于我们以及市场的预期, 因此我们重新调整了我们的假设以及盈利预测 经调整后的 2016 至 2018 年的每股净利分别为人民币 0.174, 人民币 0.193 以及人民币 0.228 我们上调公司的目标价至 3.50 港元但维持 中性 的投资评级 我们的新目标价相当于 16.2 倍 2017 年市盈率或 0.3 倍 2017 年市净率 See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 7
Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 liugu@gtjas.com (852) 2509 7516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2616 Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2629 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2603 Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险 债券 dayton.wang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5347 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7592 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 xiangyuhao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976722 Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Macroeconomics, Property 宏观 房地产 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5348 Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空 汽车 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5317 Spencer Fan 范明 Shipping & Logistics, Ports, 航运物流 港口 fanming@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Market Strategy 市场策略 gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2665 Jake Wang 汪昌江 Research Assistant 研究助理 wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Research Assistant 研究助理 wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5409 Danny Law 罗沛达 Research Assistant 研究助理 danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7768 David Liu 刘静骁 Research Assistant 研究助理 david.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5441 Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Research Assistant 研究助理 maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Gary Yang 杨光 Research Assistant 研究助理 gary.yang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2642 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书 翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2632 See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 7
Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Evergrande Real Estate (03333 HK) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Modern Land (01107 HK) / GOME Electrical Appliances (00493 HK) / China Wood Optimization (01885 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Hengdeli (03389 HK) / Sundart Holdings Ltd. (01568 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / SMI Holdings Group (00198 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / Shanghai Electric- H shares (02727 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) / WH Group (00288 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2016 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer Page 7 of 7