公司 / 行业动态 2017 年 9 月 29 日 行业更新 中国政府正式发布双积分政策分析员 : 布家杰, CFA (markpo@chinastock.com.hk; 电话 : (852) 3698 6318) 新能源汽车行业的消息面正面 2017 年 9 月初, 有报道指中国正在计划在长远而言禁止生产和销售燃油车 另外有报道指出, 中国正考虑允许外国汽车制造商在自由贸易区内设立独资电动汽车业务 虽然当局还未作出最终决定, 但最早或可在明年初实行 当局放松成立合资公司的规则, 将使海外公司有机会在中国设立生产业务 另一方面, 国外汽车制造商正在中国积极寻求合资机会 : 福特汽车 [F.US] 计划与安徽众泰汽车合作, 以新品牌在中国生产电动客车 ; 大众汽车 [VOW.GR] 与江淮汽车成立了合资企业在中国开发电动汽车 此外, 在昨天, 工信部在经过一年的讨论后终印发 乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法 ( 涉及新能源车的燃油效率标准 ) 对于新能源汽车供应链( 包括原材料 电池和 OEM) 来说, 近日的消息面仍偏向正面 尽管相关股份近日已上涨, 但我们相信有投资者正在重执对相关股份的兴趣 我们亦相信, 对于新能源汽车业务不多的 OEM, 由于增长前景相对较不明朗, 它们的股价或会受压 积分制推广新能源汽车 中国政府于 2016 年 9 月发布了关于积分制的征求意见稿, 并于昨天印发了最终版本 工信部的积分制将对汽车生产商进行以下两个方面的评估 :(a) 传统车辆的平均燃料消耗量 ( 燃油效率标准 );(b) 新能源汽车的生产比例 ( 新能源汽车积分 ) 双积分制将在 2018 年 4 月生效 如果满足工信部制定的要求, 汽车制造商将获得积分, 若未能达标将失去积分 油耗负积分可通过取得新能源汽车正积分抵偿, 而新能源汽车负积分只能通过购买新能源汽车正积分 预计在 2016 年到 2020 年, 平均燃料消耗量将同比下降 6% 在积分制下, 对年度生产量在 2000 辆以下乘用车生产企业和进口量在 2000 辆以下的进口工业企业放宽了平均燃料消耗量积分的标准要求 核算年度进口量 2000 辆以下的, 暂不实施积分核算 对传统能源乘用车年度生产量或者进口量超过 2000 辆但不满 3 万辆的乘用车企业, 需达到平均燃料消耗量要求, 但不需达到新能源汽车积分比例要求 ; 达到 3 万辆以上的, 从 2019 年度开始设定新能源汽车积分比例要求 ;2019 年 2020 年新能源汽车积分比例要求分别为 10% 12% 例如, 年产量 100 万台的汽车生产商必须在 2019 年累计取得 10 万分, 并在 2020 年取得 12 万分 生产新能源车所取得的积分将根据中国政府制定的公式 :a) 纯电动车 -0.012 纯电动续驶里程 +0.8 计算积分 ;b) 混合动力车 :2 点,c). 燃料电池乘用车 -0.16 P(P = kwh / 100 公里 ) 积分上限为 5 分 对于纯电动车, 若汽车生产商生产里程为 300 公里的汽车, 将获得 4.4 分 对于未能达到工信部要求的汽车生产商, 除非能在下一年达到正积分, 否则将不被允许生产高燃料消耗车型 新能源汽车的生产积分较难获得, 因此一些汽车生产商可能不得不暂停生产高利润的高燃料消耗车型 汽车生产商可以从有剩余积分的汽车生产商购买新能源汽车积分, 这意味着市场将重新评估新能源产能 工信部还将为不符合要求的汽车生产商建立黑名单库 黑名单库上的汽车生产商将被限制或禁止享受到政府的支持政策, 例如财政补贴和税收优惠政策 据中汽协的估算,2016 年新能源乘用车积分行业平均水平约为 3%, 因此, 要在 2019 年实现 10% 的目标比较困难 我们认为, 补贴计划在今年年初的转变, 为新能源汽车行业带来不确定性, 整个行业在 2017 年上半年的增长都因此受限 不过, 双积分制政策和新能源汽车电池行业的利好政策, 都反映中国政府仍决心推动新能源汽车行业, 因此新能源汽车供应链 ( 特别是电动汽车 ) 的前景仍然乐观 在工信部的积分制下, 汽车生产商将承担更多推广新能源汽车的责任 汽车生产商可以通过应用新技术来满足燃料消耗量要求, 但若要满足新能源汽车生产系统的要求, 将需要更多的研发投入和更先进的新能源汽车产能 因此, 具有先发优势的领先企业将成为主要受益者 在微观层面上, 我们认为, 只有少数上市公司包括比亚迪股份 [1211.HK] 和北汽 [1958.HK] 能在 2018 年和 2019 年达到新标准 市场亦相信, 由于吉利 [0175.HK ] 有新的新能源汽车产品, 公司应能轻易达到政府的要求 受高燃料消耗车辆部门影响的汽车制造商将受到新政策的伤害 另外, 对于主要经营高燃料消耗汽车业务的公司, 或会因新政策而受到负面影响 潜在受益和受损股份 对于国家推行 双积分 政策和新能源汽车的新政策, 潜在受益者包括北汽 比亚迪 光宇国际 [1043.HK] 天能动力 [0819.HK] 和信义香港 [8328.HK] 但是超威动力[0951.HK] 方面, 其酸铅电池业务似乎受到原材料成本上涨影响, 而由于市场关注其盈利能力, 其股价可能会受压 ( 相关行业新闻的链结 : h t t p : / / w w w. e s m c h i n a. c o m / n e w s / a r t i c l e / 2 0 1 7 0 9 2 8 1 2 2 5? utm_source=weixin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=weixin-esmc_2017-09-28) 在我们最新发布的国轩高科[002074.CH] 调研报告中, 我们提出了国轩高科也是主要受益者之一, 因为市场正在对中国电池产能进行重新估值 在新政策下, 锂和钴等原料的供应商也将受惠于强劲的需求 另外, 一些主要经营高燃料消耗汽车业务的公司 ( 如长城汽车 [2333.HK]) 如果未能达到中国政府设下的新目标, 可能会因新政策而受到严重的负面影响 1
INDUSTRY UPDATE Chinese government formally releases credit-based system. Analyst: Mark Po, CFA (markpo@chinastock.com.hk; Tel: (852) 3698 6318) News flow on the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry remains positive. In early Sep 2017, the Chinese government released a message on banning sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in the long term. According to recent news releases, the Chinese government is also considering allowing overseas vehicle makers to set up wholly-owned electronic vehicle businesses in the free trade zones. The final decision has not yet been made, but it could be put in place as early as next year. This relaxation of the joint venture rule will give overseas companies an opportunity to establish manufacturing operations in China. Also, foreign car makers are actively seeking joint venture opportunities in China: Ford Motor [F.US] is planning to cooperate with Anhui Zotye Automobile to build electric passenger vehicles in China under a new brand; and Volkswagen [VOW.GR] launched a new joint venture with JAC to develop electronic vehicles in China. Also, yesterday, after a year of discussion, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) formally released the credit-based system (fuel efficiency standard for NEVs) for the auto industry. The news flow remains positive for the NEV supply chain, including raw materials, batteries and OEMs. Despite their recent share price outperformance, we believe that investors may have renewed interest in companies in the NEV supply chain. We also believe that shares of auto OEMs with limited exposure to the NEV segment will continue to underperform, given uncertainties on the growth outlook. Credit-based system to promote the NEV industry. The Chinese government released a draft of the credit-based system in Sep 2016 and released the final version yesterday. According to the MIIT credit-based system, automakers will be evaluated on two areas: (a) average fuel consumption of conventional vehicles (fuel efficiency standard), and (b) the proportion of NEV production (NEV standard). The credit-based system will become effective in Apr 2018. Automakers will gain if they fulfil the requirements set by the MIIT system and will lose they fail to meet the targets. The lost from the fuel efficiency standard can be offset by gained from the NEV standard, but lost from the NEV standard cannot be offset by gained from the fuel efficiency standard. The average fuel consumption is expected to drop 6% YoY from 2016 to 2020. Under the credit-based system, enterprises in China that produce or import fewer than 2,000 vehicles per annum will not have to meet the fuel efficiency standard. Enterprises in China that produce or import more than 2,000 vehicles but fewer than 30,000 vehicles will have to meet the fuel efficiency standard but not the NEV standard. For enterprises in China that produce or import 30,000 vehicles or above, the NEV contribution must reach 10% of total sales in 2017 and 12% in 2020. For example, an automaker with annual production volume of 1m units must accumulate 100,000 in 2019 and 120,000 in 2020. The for producing an NEV will be subject to a formula set by the Chinese government: a) pure electric vehicles 0.012 R+0.8 (R=km), b) hybrids 2, and c) fuel cells 0.16 P (P=kWh/100km). The /credits will be capped at 5. Regarding pure electric vehicles, for producing cars with a range of 300km, an automaker will get 4.4. If an automaker fails to meet the MIIT requirements, it will not be allowed to produce high-fuel-consumption models unless its achieves a positive point total in the following year. NEV production are more difficult to get, so some automakers may have to suspend production of highly profitable high-fuel-consumption models. Automakers can buy NEV credits from other automakers with excess credits, which means that new energy capacity will be rerated by the market. The MIIT will also establish a blacklist system for automakers that do not meet the requirements. Automakers on the blacklist will be restricted or banned from benefiting from government support policies, such as financial subsidies and preferential tax policies. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the NEV ratio achieved by automakers was only 3% in 2016. Therefore, the 10% target ratio for 2019 will be difficult for some automakers to achieve. We believe that the change in the subsidy programme earlier this year created uncertainty in the NEV sector and that growth of the whole industry was capped in 1H 2017. However, the launch of the credit-based system and policy support for the EV battery industry indicates that the Chinese government is still keen on promoting NEVs and that the outlook for the NEV supply chain (especially electric vehicles) remains positive. Under the MIIT credit system, automakers will take more responsibility for promoting NEVs. Automakers can meet the fuel efficiency requirements through the application of new technology, but meeting the requirements under the NEV production system will require more R&D investment and more advanced NEV production capability. The leading players with first-mover advantage will thus be the major beneficiaries. On the micro level, we think that a few listed local OEMs such as BYD [1211.HK] and BAIC [1958.HK] will be able to meet new standard in 2018 and 2019. The market also believes that Geely [0175.HK] should be comfortably able to meet government s requirements, given its new NEV line-up. Automakers with significant exposure to the highfuel-consumption vehicle segment will be hurt by the new policy. Potential beneficiaries and losers. Potential beneficiaries of the credit-based system and new policy on the EV sector include BAIC, BYD Coslight [1043.HK], Tianneng [0819.HK], and Xinyi HK [8328.HK]. However, it seems that Chaowei s [0951.HK] acid-lead battery operation has been hit by high raw material costs, and its shares may come under pressure due to concerns about profitability (link to industry news flow: http://www.esmchina.com/news/article/201709281225?utm_source=weixin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=weixin-esmc_2017-09-28). In our latest key takeaways from our meeting with Guoxuan High-tech Co., Ltd [002074.CH], we highlighted that Guoxuan High-tech Co., Ltd is also one of the key beneficiaries, as the market is now re-rating battery capacity in China. Suppliers of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt will also see stronger demand under the new policy. Companies with higher exposure to the high-fuel-consumption segment, such as Great Wall Motor [2333.HK], may suffer significantly from the new policies if they fail to achieve the new targets set by the Chinese government. 2
Figure 1: MIIT credit system MIIT Average fuel consumption standard New energy vehicle production standard Positive Negative Positive Negative Internal transferable Tradable Sources: MIIT, NDRC, Internet, CGIS Research Figure 2: MIIT s new energy vehicle production standard Driving range Car Type R 50 100 R < 150 150 R < 250 250 R < 350 R 350 Pure EV Passenger vehicle / 2-2.5 2.6-3.7 3.8-5.0 5 PHEV Passenger vehicle / 2 2 2 2 Sources: MIIT, Internet, CGIS Research 3
Figure 3: Monthly new energy vehicle sales volume Units Sales Volume (units) YoY (%) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 12/14 03/15 06/15 09/15 12/15 03/16 06/16 09/16 12/16 03/17 06/17 Sources: WIND, CGIS Research 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Figure 4: MIIT s new energy vehicle production ratio target Year New energy vehicle production 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Target ratio / / / 10% 12% Sources: MIIT, Internet, CGIS Research 4
Figure 5: Peer comparison Sector Ticker Company PE EV/EBITDA P/B ROE ROA Div yield Share Price Performance 2016 2017F 3M 6M 12M Price Market Cap 2017F 2018F 2019F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2016 2017F 2016 2017F 2016 2017F 1M YTD Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % % Automaker PV 1211 HK Byd Co Ltd-H 75.10 27,540 36.4 25.9 21.9 15.7 12.6 11.1 3.6 3.1 13.2 9.0 3.3 3.1 n.a. 0.6 53.9 54.7 69.0 42.8 83.8 175 HK Geely Automobile Holdings Lt 21.85 25,079 18.5 14.1 11.5 12.2 9.8 8.4 6.0 5.1 23.3 30.8 13.4 11.4 0.6 1.1 16.8 32.4 75.4 207.3 194.9 2238 HK Guangzhou Automobile Group-H 17.70 22,351 9.8 8.3 7.6 21.2 17.6 15.4 2.2 1.8 15.2 20.2 8.4 10.1 2.0 3.0 15.7 30.1 38.1 75.2 88.7 2333 HK Great Wall Motor Company-H 9.60 14,888 10.0 8.0 7.3 8.5 7.0 6.4 1.6 1.5 24.6 14.9 10.4 7.8 4.3 3.1-4.2-2.1 6.1 26.3 32.6 1958 HK Baic Motor Corp Ltd-H 7.22 7,022 8.5 6.6 5.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.1 16.9 13.6 4.3 5.1 4.7 3.9 5.7-5.4-14.6-15.0 4.6 860 HK O Luxe Holdings Ltd 1.64 928 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 n.a. -2.2 n.a. 0.7 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 20.6 82.2 107.6 141.2 121.6 Bus 600104 CH Saic Motor Corp Ltd-A 30.42 53,279 9.8 8.9 8.2 8.8 7.8 7.2 1.7 1.6 17.4 17.6 5.7 5.9 n.a. 5.9-1.0-1.1 23.3 40.3 29.7 600066 CH Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co -A 24.54 8,144 14.8 12.7 12.6 11.7 10.2 10.4 4.5 3.5 30.6 24.6 12.9 10.3 n.a. 3.0 16.9 13.9 16.2 11.9 25.3 000957 CH Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co-A 14.86 1,321 14.0 12.2 10.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3 n.a. 24.8 17.4 3.6 6.4 n.a. n.a. 41.8 29.4-7.4-17.9-6.4 000868 CH Anhui Ankai Automobile-A 9.56 997 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1 n.a. 4.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 88.9 79.7 36.2 41.4 43.8 600166 CH Beiqi Foton Motor Co Ltd-A 3.08 3,080 16.8 12.8 7.0 13.8 13.6 n.a. 1.1 1.0 3.0 6.1 1.0 9.0 n.a. 1.3 5.1 7.7-4.0 15.8-0.3 476 HK China Dynamics Holdings Ltd 0.24 145 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 n.a. -3.5 n.a. -3.5 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 1.7 39.6-12.6-20.0-14.2 729 HK Fdg Electric Vehicles Ltd 0.40 1,134 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.0 n.a. -8.4-22.4-5.7-5.7 0.0 n.a. 25.4 19.7 19.7-4.8 14.5 Average 15.4 12.2 10.3 11.8 10.1 8.7 2.8 2.3 12.2 13.2 4.2 6.3 1.6 2.7 22.1 29.3 27.1 41.9 47.6 600884 CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A 24.27 4,085 30.8 30.1 24.7 24.8 19.1 15.0 3.1 3.1 5.1 8.9 3.0 4.7 n.a. 0.8 18.8 47.7 51.8 48.0 72.4 300073 CH Beijing Easpring Material-A 32.42 1,779 61.4 47.1 32.8 43.9 32.6 23.4 8.0 7.6 7.7 14.3 9.1 8.5 n.a. 0.5 25.7 31.1 15.8 26.3 50.5 Cathode materials 000839 CH Citic Guoan Information-A 11.15 6,552 159.3 111.5 85.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.2 n.a. 3.5 n.a. 2.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.6 17.2 0.1-1.0 21.5 000009 CH China Baoan Group-A 8.99 2,897 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.3 n.a. 5.2 n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.1 11.8-5.6-13.9-13.2 600390 CH Kingray New Materials Sci -A 13.61 7,648 23.3 17.8 14.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.7 1.5 11.2 7.6 7.7 4.1 0.0 1.5 2.2 11.6-9.9-9.0-5.0 002056 CH Hengdian Group Dmegc -A 11.18 2,755 31.5 25.1 18.9 14.5 12.5 11.0 4.4 4.1 11.8 14.0 8.4 11.5 n.a. 0.7 28.7 48.5 42.6 55.0 60.7 002176 CH Jiangxi Special Electric -A 15.08 3,321 59.6 42.7 n.a. 37.9 27.9 n.a. 5.9 5.4 6.4 9.2 1.8 4.3 n.a. 0.2 16.4 75.3 34.8 23.2 26.4 Anode material 002091 CH Jiangsu Guotai Int Group -A 10.87 2,561 21.6 18.5 14.3 10.4 9.0 6.3 2.6 1.8 16.9 13.4 7.0 3.5 n.a. 1.2 6.2 13.5 5.1-0.3 6.6 000009 CH China Baoan Group-A 8.99 2,897 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.3 n.a. 5.2 n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.1 11.8-5.6-13.9-13.2 600884 CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A 24.27 4,085 30.8 30.1 24.7 24.8 19.1 15.0 3.1 3.1 5.1 8.9 3.0 4.7 n.a. 0.8 18.8 47.7 51.8 48.0 72.4 Li-ion battery separator 000973 CH Fspg Hi-Tech Co Ltd -A 7.92 1,149 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 n.a. 6.0 n.a. 2.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.2 2.7-10.1-4.5 5.6 002389 CH Zhejiang Nanyang Technolog-A 24.91 2,647 108.3 89.0 80.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.0 n.a. 3.6 4.6 2.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.0 16.4 3.1 92.1 7.9 002168 CH Shenzhen Hifuture Electric-A 16.99 2,090 99.9 77.2 77.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.3 n.a. 5.9 6.1 1.9 4.1 n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 7.1 002108 CH Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic -A 14.67 2,399 24.5 21.0 17.4 18.2 15.6 13.9 5.5 4.4 21.6 19.5 14.4 15.4 n.a. 0.8-5.3 10.2 6.0 17.0 22.4 002091 CH Jiangsu Guotai Int Group -A 10.87 2,561 21.6 18.5 14.3 10.4 9.0 6.3 2.6 1.8 16.9 13.4 7.0 3.5 n.a. 1.2 6.2 13.5 5.1-0.3 6.6 Electrolytic solution 300037 CH Shenzhen Capchem Technolog-A 26.65 1,512 33.7 27.0 22.0 24.1 19.1 15.1 4.5 4.0 12.3 12.4 9.2 10.0 n.a. 1.0 9.8 18.1 0.2 1.0 8.1 002407 CH Do-Fluoride Chemicals Co-A 26.49 2,493 32.3 31.3 49.1 24.0 27.2 24.4 6.1 5.7 22.1 15.1 7.9 n.a. n.a. 1.1 14.2 24.7-12.9-16.2-2.9 002411 CH Jiangsu Bicon Pharmaceutic-A 26.63 6,117 31.3 24.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.7 n.a. 14.1 n.a. 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. -5.4-7.5-2.8 8.9-1.6 600884 CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A 24.27 4,085 30.8 30.1 24.7 24.8 19.1 15.0 3.1 3.1 5.1 8.9 3.0 4.7 n.a. 0.8 18.8 47.7 51.8 48.0 72.4 Power core 002190 CH Sichuan Chengfei Integrat -A 27.70 1,433 197.9 95.5 72.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.4 n.a. 7.9 n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 4.7-14.9-20.9-13.4 300068 CH Zhejiang Narada Power Sour-A 18.20 2,378 27.7 19.4 15.1 26.2 20.1 18.1 2.4 2.1 7.4 8.1 3.5 5.9 n.a. 0.7 0.7 8.7-9.6-14.2-5.6 000049 CH Shenzhen Desay Battery Tec-A 52.14 1,604 29.2 22.1 17.8 18.7 15.0 12.9 8.8 7.3 24.5 27.5 8.0 7.9 n.a. 0.5-4.7 0.3 1.3 27.2 24.0 BMS 300207 CH Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd-A 12.26 2,374 25.2 19.1 15.4 21.1 16.6 13.2 6.3 4.7 22.1 21.9 6.3 6.7 n.a. 1.2 0.1 3.5-7.3-23.2-11.8 002139 CH Shenzhen Topband Co Ltd -A 12.30 1,254 36.7 25.6 18.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.6 3.8 10.8 11.2 7.1 7.0 n.a. 1.0 3.4 15.9 32.7 37.9 39.9 600699 CH Ningbo Joyson Electronic -A 34.43 4,900 28.1 24.1 19.3 12.3 10.6 8.9 2.5 2.3 5.5 9.0 2.7 3.5 n.a. 0.6 8.2 9.2 5.1 1.7 4.0 Lithium materials 002460 CH Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co-A 91.45 9,993 51.4 36.0 25.9 44.5 28.4 20.1 24.6 16.5 21.2 38.1 18.9 26.6 n.a. 0.3 23.1 95.9 140.0 221.3 245.0 000762 CH Tibet Mineral Development-A 20.15 1,573 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.0 n.a. 1.1 n.a. -0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 27.3 42.6 13.2 11.0 18.3 000792 CH Qinghai Salt Lake Industry-A 19.48 8,136 n.a. 175.5 60.1 31.9 28.0 21.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.2-0.6-0.4 n.a. 0.0 73.2 86.2 56.3 55.7 53.2 002466 CH Tianqi Lithium Industr Ind-A 72.55 10,814 36.4 32.5 26.0 22.0 19.2 12.7 12.9 10.7 39.5 31.1 16.4 16.5 n.a. 0.4 5.4 34.0 79.8 90.9 123.6 Battery 1043 HK Coslight Technology Intl Gp 3.75 189 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 n.a. 7.4 n.a. 1.7 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 32.5-2.8-30.4-39.6-13.8 002074 CH Guoxuan High-Tech Co Ltd 31.43 4,135 22.0 17.3 14.3 16.4 12.1 9.6 6.4 4.9 29.7 23.8 9.2 9.8 n.a. 0.7 0.4 2.7-2.1-5.0 1.4 300014 CH Eve Energy Co Ltd-A 25.71 3,299 50.0 34.4 28.5 31.6 23.0 19.1 10.2 9.4 13.8 19.5 8.8 6.5 n.a. 0.4 14.7 51.9 35.1 57.0 75.7 819 HK Tianneng Power Intl Ltd 7.89 1,138 7.3 5.9 5.1 4.3 3.5 3.1 1.8 1.6 23.5 23.2 7.3 8.5 3.4 4.1 29.6 24.4 10.5 20.3 10.8 951 HK Chaowei Power Holdings Ltd 4.50 638 6.5 5.5 5.0 6.7 5.8 5.2 1.2 1.1 17.1 17.2 3.7 5.3 1.8 3.0 10.0-1.3-19.4-32.6-32.1 378 HK Fdg Kinetic Ltd 1.36 894 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. -6.2 3.0 19.3-0.7 3.8 1188 HK Hybrid Kinetic Group Ltd 0.20 508 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 n.a. -17.5 n.a. -19.9 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 7.1-11.0-3.0 8328 HK Xinyi Automobile Glass Hong 1.59 110 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.4 n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 2.6 4.6-1.2-7.6 6.0 Super Capacitor 894 HK Man Yue Technology Holdings 1.25 76 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 n.a. -1.1 n.a. 1.2 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 35.9 68.9 66.7 56.3 71.2 002484 CH Nantong Jianghai Capacitor-A 10.30 1,259 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 n.a. 6.4 n.a. 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.4 7.2-11.3-0.8-18.5 Average 47.1 39.8 30.5 22.4 17.9 13.8 5.2 4.7 10.7 14.9 4.7 7.6 0.6 1.0 11.6 23.1 15.2 19.5 25.2 Permanent magnetic material 000970 CH Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan Hi-A 18.10 2,890 51.3 41.2 34.8 27.2 21.9 18.8 4.6 4.4 7.9 8.7 5.6 6.9 n.a. 0.5 10.2 26.4 23.6 14.0 35.6 600360 CH Jilin Sino-Microelectronic-A 8.71 964 58.1 37.9 28.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.1 3.1 2.0 5.3 1.3 2.0 n.a. 0.7 16.0 19.3-2.9-11.4-1.7 002249 CH Zhongshan Broad Ocean Moto-A 8.59 3,051 32.4 25.8 21.2 21.4 17.4 13.8 2.3 2.2 8.4 6.9 3.2 4.1 n.a. 1.2 19.3 30.9 1.7-13.6-0.5 3898 HK Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric 43.95 6,616 14.6 13.0 11.9 10.8 9.8 9.0 2.7 2.4 19.6 17.7 11.3 12.0 n.a. 1.3 7.7 14.5 1.3 9.6 11.7 Motor driver 300124 CH Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A 28.73 7,171 42.0 33.3 26.8 43.5 31.9 25.0 10.1 8.6 21.2 21.1 13.5 13.8 n.a. 1.1 9.3 16.4 29.3 55.4 41.3 002196 CH Zhejiang Founder Motor Co -A 12.73 860 33.5 25.5 19.9 25.3 19.3 13.9 2.4 2.3 5.2 6.9 4.4 5.2 n.a. 1.6 21.4 13.6-1.8-24.8-9.7 000970 CH Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan Hi-A 18.10 2,890 51.3 41.2 34.8 27.2 21.9 18.8 4.6 4.4 7.9 8.7 5.6 6.9 n.a. 0.5 10.2 26.4 23.6 14.0 35.6 000799 CH Jiugui Liquor Co Ltd-A 28.95 1,410 54.8 38.4 26.5 32.7 22.4 16.2 4.9 4.7 6.0 8.6 6.6 8.5 n.a. n.a. 12.7 57.6 29.6 52.8 41.1 002176 CH Jiangxi Special Electric -A 15.08 3,321 59.6 42.7 n.a. 37.9 27.9 n.a. 5.9 5.4 6.4 9.2 1.8 4.3 n.a. 0.2 16.4 75.3 34.8 23.2 26.4 600366 CH Ningbo Yunsheng (Group) Co-A 20.79 1,736 30.1 25.1 26.3 31.7 26.9 29.9 2.6 2.4 19.8 7.7 3.6 6.5 n.a. 1.0 9.5 16.8 0.8-3.1 5.6 600580 CH Wolong Electric Group Co L-A 8.11 1,567 24.6 21.7 18.4 17.4 16.3 n.a. 2.0 1.8 5.6 7.7 1.5 1.7 n.a. 0.5 7.8 18.7-4.8-17.3-10.9 002664 CH Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd-A 28.96 1,737 42.0 34.7 29.9 31.0 25.4 n.a. 6.4 6.1 14.5 14.7 9.7 10.1 n.a. 0.6 6.2 2.2 14.1 13.8 14.1 600478 CH Hunan Corun New Energy Co-A 10.02 2,090 501.0 167.0 100.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.3 n.a. -15.1 1.7-4.2 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 18.2 12.5 1.5-3.9 0.2 Average 41.2 31.7 25.3 27.8 21.9 18.2 4.3 4.0 10.4 10.3 5.7 6.8 n.a. 0.8 12.2 26.5 12.4 9.4 15.7 Charging equpment 002227 CH Shenzhen Auto Electric Pow-A 21.93 725 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.1 n.a. 1.2 n.a. 1.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.9 20.9-10.2-22.0-9.3 600406 CH Nari Technology Co Ltd-A 16.46 5,993 21.7 18.6 16.0 12.4 10.1 8.7 4.7 3.1 17.1 17.2 9.5 8.8 n.a. 2.1-2.8-5.1-1.0 3.7-1.0 002028 CH Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd-A 16.61 1,893 30.3 26.5 20.9 24.4 20.7 n.a. 3.0 2.8 8.7 9.1 5.7 5.9 n.a. 1.6 15.4 3.8 2.7 52.2 26.0 600680 CH Shanghai Potevio Co Ltd - A 13.43 621 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.8 n.a. -45.6 n.a. -20.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -4.7-2.8-48.3-61.5-56.1 002518 CH Shenzhen Kstar Science And-A 17.36 1,533 27.1 21.0 17.0 23.7 18.1 15.4 5.0 4.4 15.9 16.7 12.4 11.5 n.a. 1.1 7.4 18.3 9.3 8.2 5.5 300141 CH Suzhou Industrial Park Hes-A 16.23 609 45.1 33.3 22.4 33.8 20.3 12.7 5.9 5.3 4.3 10.3 3.3 5.4 n.a. 0.4 22.5 29.2 7.1-0.7 4.1 2188 HK China Titans Energy Technolo 1.15 136 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.5 n.a. 1.4 n.a. 1.6 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 1.8 3.6-5.0-18.4-1.7 3393 HK Wasion Group Holdings Ltd 3.96 509 11.3 11.1 9.4 9.5 8.1 7.1 0.8 0.8 7.4 7.5 3.5 4.2 6.3 5.5 18.9 9.7-2.2-3.2-5.0 763 HK Zte Corp-H 24.65 16,855 18.1 16.8 15.1 16.8 15.2 14.0 3.0 2.4-7.2 14.2-0.9 3.4 0.0 1.2 22.6 32.8 65.0 113.6 82.9 1366 HK Jiangnan Group Ltd 0.46 238 3.3 2.5 2.3 7.3 6.1 5.7 0.3 0.3 10.4 8.9 2.7 5.5 7.1 7.2-18.8-34.1-57.1-65.5-58.3 Average 22.4 18.6 14.7 18.3 14.1 10.6 3.8 2.7 1.4 12.0 2.0 6.4 3.3 2.7 6.4 7.6-4.0 0.6-1.3 HSI Index Hang Seng Index -1.6 6.8 12.6 16.1 24.6 HSCEI Index Hang Seng China Ent Indx -4.1 4.5 4.3 11.9 15.7 SHCOMP Index Shanghai Se Composite -0.7 5.2 2.7 11.8 7.6 MXCN Index Msci China 1.9 13.3 24.0 29.5 41.8 Sources: Bloomberg, Company, CGIS Research 5
免责声明 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发 发布 提供或使 用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册 或领照之要求 银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其 准确性 正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证 此报告不应被视为是一种报价 邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券 过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或 保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的 收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问 报告中任何部份之资料 意见 预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附 属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事 行政人员 代理及雇员 ( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符 报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告 中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告 及其附件之不准确 不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任 因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心 留意此声明内容 利益披露 中国银河证券 (6881.HK; 601881.CH) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司 中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资 本值的 1%; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事 行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员 中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或 对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易 中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去 12 个月 内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务 再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去 12 个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托 分析员保证 主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的 此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 (1) 在研究报告发出前 30 日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;(2) 在研究报告发出后 3 个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;(3) 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;(4) 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益 评级指标 买入 : 股价于 12 个月内将上升 >20% 沽出 持有 : : 股价于 个月内将下跌 没有催化因素, 由 买入 降级直至出现明确 买入 讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出 版权所有 中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准 本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布 中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM459) 香港上环皇后大道中 183 号新纪元广场中远大厦 35 楼 3501-07 室电话 : 3698-6888 6