() FUDAN JOURNAL (Social Sciences) 2005 5 No. 5 2005 (, 200433) [ ] 2005 2010, :,10-12 %,300 600,, :,;, [] [] C913. 2 ;F127 [] A [ ] 0257 0289 (2005) 05 0202 011,, 1980 1990,1988 2500,1995 8000,2003 9820 20 90, 18 % 35 %20 90,,, [1 ],,,,1980,10 %, 2003 375,1 2. 7, 1 2 1., [ ] 2005 3 [ ] (1958 ),,,,, (1968 ),,,, (1972 ),,, 3 : 202 转载
,,,,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,, : N = Y pr, dn N = dy Y - dpr pr, Y, N, pr,, 2. 1980 (1),,2010 1 ( : / ) :,,1980 2003 : 0. 0776 t pr = 0. 3668 e 1980 t = 1,t 98 %, 2005 2010 (1) ( ),, 203
1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ( / ) 2. 76 2. 98 3. 22 3. 48 3. 76 4. 07 3. 2003,2005 2010 GDP 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 %,2 GDP 8 %,2010 1182. 19,2005, - 4. 15 ;GDP 10 %,2010 1358. 10, 123. 8 ; GDP 12 %,2010 1555198,2005 272. 77 2005 2010,GDP 8 %, - 0. 06 %,GDP 10 %, 1161 %,GDP 2003 12 %, 3. 26 % 2 ( GDP) 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 % () () () () () 2005 1186. 34 1210. 20 1234. 30 1258. 64 1283. 21 2006 1185. 51 1221. 45 1258. 12 1295. 51 1333. 64 2007 1184. 68 1232. 81 1282. 40 1333. 47 1386. 05 2008 1183. 85 1244. 28 1307. 15 1372. 54 1440. 53 2009 1183. 02 1255. 85 1332. 38 1412. 76 1497. 14 2010 1182. 19 1267. 53 1358. 10 1454. 15 1555. 98-4. 15 57. 33 123. 8 195. 51 272. 77 2005 2010-0. 06 0. 77 1. 61 2. 44 3. 26 ( %),,, ( ), 1. GDP 5, 2 3 1992, 1992 2003 12. 3 %,1993 GDP 2000, 1997 3000 2000 4000,20 70,,1993,,20 90,7 1993 1295 2003 1341, 1983 1995 13, 762 794,3 1996 2002,1996 792. 23 2000 745. 25 2002 792. 04 2003 813105, 204
2000,,, (,) :,, 2010,,2010 1363,2005 2010 2. 5 ;,,2010 1438,2005 2010 8. 7 3 ( ) 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1320 1326 1332 1337 1342 1346 () 1320 1327 1334 1342 911 921 929 933 936 936 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1350 1354 1358 1361 1363 933 929 924 917 909 2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1377 1389 1401 1413 1426 1438 959 962 963 963 961 959 20,,,2000 65 11. 5 %,5,, (1982 ),10114 % 24. 37 % ;1990,12. 96 %25. 18 % ;2000,15. 98 %15. 12 %, ( 2), 15 60,,,2000 2005, 5. 4,930, 2005,2010 909, 5. 9, 2005 2010 960,,,,,,, 2. 20,, 2003 1 2,,, 8 %, 2010 1182. 19,960, 260 ; GDP 10 %,2010 1358. 10, 2000,76. 7,80. 8,0. 96,6,1. 5,10 205
400 ; GDP 12 %,2010 1555. 98, 600 4 10 %,2005 2010 4 ( ) 1990 831 788 43 1991 852 798 54 1992 872 807 65 1993 927 853 74 1994 934 850 84 1995 891 794 97 1996 956 851 105 1997 969 847 122 1998 993 836 157 1999 1021 812 209 2000 1033 745 288 2001 1063 752 311 2002 1134 792 342 2003 1188 813 375 10 % 2006 1258 962 296 2007 1282 963 319 2008 1307 963 344 2009 1332 961 371 2010 1358 959 399 :,,,, 300 600,,15 39,,,,, 85 % 1.,,,20 70 80,,,20 80 1992,, 1997,,,,,, 206
,20 80,,1980 1983, 3 4,1984 10 1984 1990 21 %,1990 50 1992,,,,,1988 1993 3 1990 1997 16 %,1996 100,1996,2000,,,,,,,,,,1997 2003 21 %,1999 200 2000 300 (2) 1980 0. 5 %,1995 10 %,1995 1 9,1999 1 4,2001 1 3,2003 1 2 2 ( ) ( %) 2. (1980 2003) (1),,14. 3 % (44. 2 %),( 5), 5 ( %) 20. 1 29. 5 10 19. 8 2. 6 14. 3 8. 9 44. 2 19. 5 : 2003 207
,,88 %, 4. 3 %,, 3. 4 % 12. 8 % 11. 8 %, 2003,,, 34 % 20 % 14 %8 %,2000 3. 8 %2003 5. 4 %, 2003 2003, 2003 6,,,,,,,,, 6 2003 () 2496 3 2562 2087 1764 1545 1559 2151 2049 2158 1567 1295 814 691 628 422 658 826 948 3 : 2003 7 7. 90 10. 52 2. 62 27. 07 41. 63 14. 56 1. 77 16. 68 14. 91 () 10. 45 4. 31-6. 14 ( %) 65 54-11 ( %) 55 98 43 : 1996 1995,??,, 208
, 1996 1995, 7,,,, [2 ],,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,, :, (2) 2002, 60 %, 12. 5 %(5 %,7. 5 % ),, 1 1 60 50, :30 % 3 % 14 %, 47 % ;,, 55 %,30-50 %,;,,,,,,, 1. :? :,6%, 26. 5 %,, 22 % 209
,, :,,,, :,, 20, 10,,,,, 2000 2003,,,,,,,, 2. :?,, 2004, 10 % :?,,9800,, 3, 10 115,,,,700 ;700 1000 ;1000,,,, :,,,,, 6 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 210
, 3. :20,,,,,,,,,1916 %, 6415 %,1211 %, 116 %,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, 4. (1),,, (2),,,,,,,,(3),,,,,,,, (4),,,,,(5),, [ ] [ 1 ]. [J ].,2000 (4). 211
[ 2 ] Meng, Xin & Zhang, Junsen, 2001. The Two2Tier Labor Market in Urban China : Occupational Segregation and Wage Differentials between Urban Residents and Rural Migrants in Shanghai. Journal of Comparative Economics 29, 485 504. Urban Labor Market and Policies for Migrant Labors : The Case of Shanghai and Its Implications YUAN Zhi2gang FENGJin ZHANG Hong ( Center for Employment and Social Security Research, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China) Abstract : We study the supply of and the demand for labors during 2005 to 2010 in Shanghai and predict the number of migrant labors required during the same period of time. Our results show that the reproduction of lo2 cal residents cannot meet the demand for labors induced by economic growth. When the growth rate is 10-12 %, Shanghai should have 3 to 6 million migrant labors available each year. A dilemma is faced by policy makers in urban area dealing with migrant population. Migrant labors will contribute to the urban development as well as reduce the local employment. There are discriminations as to occupation attainment, wage income and social welfare between local residents and migrant labors in Shanghai. Our point is that : the discriminated policy might cause labor shortages and also violate the social equity. So the employment of migrant labors should be adjusted by the market and the responsibility of local government is to create a fair environment for competition. Key words : labor supply and demand ; migrant labors ; employment policy [ ] 212