31 2 2012 2 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31No.2 Feb.2012 ( 210046) : 1978~1987 1987~2008 1978 ;1987 ;2008 1978 ;1987 GDP ;2008 GDP : ; ;Mann-Kendal ; ; :1000-0585(2012)02-0234-11 [1~8] [9] [10] 90 20 80 90 [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] :2011-04-15; :2011-08-05 : (40771075); (BR2009034); (08KJD170004); (11KJB170003) : (1970-) E-mail:guanweihua@njnu.edu.cn
2 : 235 [17] 2008 108487.7 1978 (1558.6 ) 70 [18~20] [21] [22] [23] [2425] [26] [27] 31 ( ) 1 [13] [28] : CV vw = n i=1 槡 (Y i - Y) 珚 2 (P i /P ) 珚 Y (1) N T = (P i /P) log( 珚 Y/Y i ) (2) i=1 CV vw T Y i i 珚 Y Y i N i P i i P CV vw T 1
236 31 1 (1978~2008) Fig.1 ThechangesofregionaldiferencesofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChina sincethereformandopeningup (1978~2008) 2 Mann-Kendal 1978~2008 Mann-Kendal {x 1 x 2 x n } UF i UB i UF UB 0 ; 0 ( ) UF UB [29] Mann-Kendal 1978~2008 α= 0.01 U 0.01=±2.58 Mann-Kendal ( 2) Mann-Kendal ( 3) 2 3 UF UB 20 80 1987 1978~1987 1987~2008 2 Fig.2 Mann-Kendal ( α= 0.01 ) Mann-Kendalstatisticcurveofweightedvariationcoeficientofregionaldiferences ofsocialconsumptionlevelsinchinasincethereformandopeningup
2 : 237 3 Fig.3 Mann-Kendal ( α= 0.01 ) Mann-KendalstatisticcurveofTaylorcoeficientofregionaldiferencesof socialconsumptionlevelsinchinasincethereformandopeningup 3 1978 1987 2008 [30] 3.1 1978 SPSS13.0 1978 31 ( 1) 1978 ( 4) 1 1978 Tab.1 TheregionalclasificationofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain1978 4 1978
238 31 4 1978 Fig.4 RegionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain1978 3.2 1987 1987 2 5 2 1987 Tab.2 TheregionalclasificationofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain1987 5 1987 4 1987 1978
2 : 239 5 1987 Fig.5 RegionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain1987 1978 3.3 2008 2008 3 6 3 2008 Tab.3 TheregionalclasificationofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain2008 6 2008
240 31 6 2008 Fig.6 RegionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain2008 5 2008 1987 1987 4 [31] ( ) ; ;
2 : 241 [17] [32] [33] [34] [35] 1978 1987 2008 (Y) GDP (X 1 ) GDP (X 2 ) (X 3 ) (X 4 ) (X 5 ) (X 6 ) (X 7 ) (X 8 ) (X 9 ) (X 10 ) (X 11 ) (X 12 ) (X 13 X 14 X 15 ) [36] 1978 1978 [22] : T 槡 = T p Tt (3) A T T p T t A 1978 1987 2008 : Y =2.044X 8 +0.295X 10-197.672X 13 +140.948 (4) (R 2 =0.896 0.05% ) Y =0.488X 1-0.004X 12 +7.908X 15-234.364 (5) (R 2 =0.992 0.05% ) Y =0.206X 1 +0.387X 4 +0.102X 8-2253.051 (6) (R 2 =0.990 0.05% ) (4) 1978
242 31 (5) 1987 GDP ; ; GDP (6) 2008 GDP GDP 5 : (1) (2) 1978 ~1987 1987~2008 (3) 1978 1987 2008 31 1978 1987 1978 2008 (4)1978 1987 GDP 2008 GDP
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244 31 Studyontheregionalpaternchangeofsocialconsumption levelsinchinasincethereformandopeningup GUAN Wei-huaZHOUJingLU Yu-qi (SchoolofGeographicalSciencesNanjingNormalUniversityNanjing210046China) provementofsocialistmarketeconomyandtherapiddevelopmentofcommoditycirculation inchinathescaleofsocialconsumptionhasbeengreatlyimproved.atthesametime Abstract:Sincethereformandopeningupstartedin1978withtheestablishmentandim- somethingsarechangingsuchastheregionaldiferencesofconsumptionlevelsandthe regionalconsumptionpaternswhichresultsfromthediferences.inthispaperwefirstly analyzethediferencesofsocialconsumptionlevelsbetweenprovincesinchinasincethe reformandopeningupbasedonthevariationcoeficientand Taylor'sindexandindicate thatsince1978thediferenceofsocialconsumptionlevelsbetweenprovincesinchinain generalpresents wideningtrendbuttherearesomefluctuations.bytheanalysisof change-pointbasedon Mann-Kendalmethodsincereformandopeningupthediferences' changesofsocialconsumptionlevelsinchinacanbedividedintotwophasesfrom1978to 1987andfrom 1987to2008.Usingtheclusteranddiscriminateanalysis methodswe comparetheregionalpaternsofsocialconsumptionlevelsin Chinain19781987and 2008.Theresultsareasfolows:in1978thesocialconsumptionlevelsin Chinahad prominentnorth-southregionaldiference;in1987thesocialconsumptionlevelinchina notonlyhadnorth-southdiferencebutalsohadeast-westdiference;in2008thesocial consumptionlevelinchinaingeneralpresentseast-middle-westdiferencesinthepatern ofladder.wecanfindthattheregionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelhasbeenshif- tedfrom north-southdiferencetoeast-westdiference.finalywestudysuchindexes whichareinconnectionwiththeregionalsocialconsumptionlevelasthepopulationeco- nomicdevelopmentlevelandinvestmentinfixedassetsincomelevelsavingsfinancial levelstraficconvenienceandindustrialstructure.bystepwiseregressionanalysiswe analyzetheformationmechanismofregionalconsumptionpaternsinchinain19781987 and2008.theresultsareasfolows:in1978regionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevel wasmainlyafectedbypercapitasavingsofurbanandruralresidentspercapitaexpendi- tureandtheproportionofprimaryindustryoutputvalue;in1987itwasmainlyafected bypercapita GDPtransportaccessibilitylevelsandtheproportionoftertiaryindustry outputvalue;in2008itwasmainlyafectedbypercapitagdppercapitaincomeandper capitasavingsofurbanandruralresidents. Key words:socialconsumptionlevel;regionalpatern change; Mann-Kendal method; mechanism;china