4 : 50a Fig.1 Distributionofmeteorologicalstationsinfarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernChinaanditsadjacentarea x k-x t 0 ;sgn(x k-x t )

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1 JOURNAL OFDESERT RESEARCH Vol.30 No.4 Jul.2010 : X(2010) a ( ; ; ) : Mann-Kendal R/S 50a % 0.32 /10a ;Hurst ; 90 : ; ; :P :A IPCC (2007) [1] [11] [2] ( 1) [3-4] [5-6] ( ) hm 2 50% [7] [8] 2~ [9] 8 300~450mm ( 25%) 40a [12] [10] (Ⅰ- ) (Ⅱ- ) (Ⅲ- ) ( 1) ; ; Mann-Kendal R/S ( htp://cdc.cma.gov.cn/) : ; : : (2007CB106807); ( ); (070104) : (1983 ) : dongmy@ires.cn : ( jiangy@bnu.edu.cn)

2 4 : 50a Fig.1 Distributionofmeteorologicalstationsinfarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernChinaanditsadjacentarea x k-x t 0 ;sgn(x k-x t ) Z 1-a/2 Z c Z 1-a/2 50a H 0 ±Z 1-α /2 1 -α/2 α (1 12 Kendal ) (3 5 ) (6 8 ) (9 11 ) (12 2 ) : ( ) β= Median xi -x j j<i (3) i-j 2.2 :1<j<i<n β β > Mann-Kendal β <0 Mann-Kendal Mann-Kendal (WMO) [17-19] [19] R/S [13-16] H 0 R/S X (HurstH E) 1965 Mandelbrot H 1 X Mann- [16] Kendal : 烄 S-1 槡 var(s ) S >0 [20-21] R/S (R) Z c = 烅 0 S =0 (1) S S+1 槡 var(s ) S < 0 (R/S) 烆 [21] : n-1 n S = sgn(x k -x t ) (2) R(τ) t=1 k=t+1 S(τ) = (ατ) H (4)

3 :α ;τ ;H 80% Hurst H= ; H >0.5 90% 50a H 1 ;0 H<0.5 ( 1) 1 70 H ; ; ( : ) :20 80 Table1 Decadalvariationsofannualandseasonalmean airtemperatureanomaliesinthefarming-pastoral ecotoneofnorthernchina( ) Mann-Kendal ( 3) M-K Fig.2 Curvesofannualmeanairtemperatureanomalies inthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernchina

4 4 : 50a > > 99% 0.21 /10a 0.32 /10a 2 Hurst (0.22 /10a [22] 0.13 /10a [1] ) H 0.8 Hurst [23] [20] ( 3) 20 50a 2 H 99% 0.8 ; (z c>2.58) H > > 0.5 /10a [24] 50a [22] : (Ⅰ): : > 3 Mann-Kendal Fig.3 TheMann-Kendaltrendtestforannualmeanairtemperatureinthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernChina 2 Table2 TheMann-Kendaltrendtestresultsforannualandseasonalmeanairtemperature inthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernchina β /( a -1 ) zc H β /( a -1 ) zc H β /( a -1 ) zc H

930 30 3 Hurst Table3 ClasificationsystemofHurstIndex Hurst Hurst 1 0.50<H 0.55-1 0.45<H 0.50 2 0.55<H 0.65-2 0.35<H 0.45 3 0.65<H 0.75-3 0.25<H 0.35 4 0.75<H 0.80-4 0.20<H 0.

5 Hurst Table3 ClasificationsystemofHurstIndex Hurst Hurst <H <H <H <H <H <H <H <H <H <H % AicGIS [25] Kendal β 89%76%85%96%100% ( 4) 4 β Fig.4 βcontourofannualandseasonalmeanairtemperaturechangeinthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernchina

6 4 : 50a ( 4A) Mann-Kendal R/S 0.42 /10a 50a 0.1 /10a ; : 1) 50a -0.04~0.35 /10a : /10a % /10a ( 4B); 2) /10a 0.41 /10a > (-0.01 /10a)( 4C); > > Hurst 0.74 /10 3) 0.38 /10a( 4D); 0.47 /10a 0.47 /10a 0.16 /10a 4) 50a 0.37~0.47 /10a /10a( 4E) (References): 3.4 Mann-Kendal icalgeography199721(3): [3] (5):3-7. [19] 4 Mann-Kendal [1] IPCC.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalBasisClimate[R]. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress2007:18. [2] MartinKWendyJGRuthE Wetal.Landscapeandplant communityboundariesinbio-geography[j].progressinphys-. [J]. [4]. :Ⅰ. [J] (1): [5]. [J] (3): [6]. [J] [26] (6): [7]. 4 [J] (2): Table4 Catastrophechangeyearsofannualmeanair temperatureinthefarming-pastoralecotoneof northernchinabymann-kendaltest [8] [9]. [J] (2): [J]. ( )200737(4): [10].

7 [J] (1): [11] (4): [J]. (E )200636( ): [12]. [J] (4): [J] (9): Kendaltrendtestunderthescalinghypothesis[J].Journalof Hydrology : [14]. [23]. [J] (2): [15]. [J]. [24] (5): [16]. [25]. [J] (2): [17]. 40 [26]. [J] (1): [18] [J] (5): [19]. [J]. [20]. [21]. [J] (3): [22]. (Ⅰ): [J] (1):3-8. [M]. : 2007: [J] (2): [J] (6): [J] (4): [13] HamedK H.Trenddetectioninhydrologicdata:The Mann- VariationTrendandCatastropheChangeofAirTemperatureintheFarming- PastoralEcotoneofNorthernChinaduringRecent50Years DONG Man-yu 1 2 JIANGYuan 1 2 RENFei-peng 1 2 WUZheng-fang 3 1.State Key Laboratoryof Earth Surface Processesand Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China 2.Colegeof ResourcesScience & Technology Beijing Normal University Beijing China 3.Schoolof Urbanand EnvironmentalScience Northeast Normal University Changchun China Abstract Basedonairtemperaturedatain from46meteorologicalstationsinthefarming-pasto- ralecotoneofnorthernchinaanditsadjacentarea thispaperanalyzedthevariationtrendofairtemperature anditscatastrophechangeusingthenonparametricmann-kendaltrendtestandr/smethods.theresults showedthattheannualandseasonalmeanairtemperatureintheresearchregionhadbeenrisingduring these50years andasignificantlyincreasingtrendsincethe1990swasdetected whicharrivesat99%con- fidencelevel.theannualmeanairtemperatureincreasedatarateof0.32 /10a whichwashigherthan thatofournationandthewholeworld.thiswasmainlycontributedbyahigherrateofairtemperaturein- creaseinwinter.ananalysisbasedonhurstindexshowsthattheannualandseasonalmeanairtemperature wilincreasecontinualyinthisareainthefuture andtheincreasingtrendwilbemoreobviousinwinter. Theincreasingrangeofannualandseasonalmeanairtemperatureexhibitedregionaldiversity.Acatastro- phechangeofannualmeanairtemperatureoccurredintheearly1990s. Keywords airtemperature variationtrend catastrophechange farming-pastoralecotone

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,.2018, 38,.1 :1, 220 ( ) 140, ;2,,,;3,,,, >180 ( ) >120,,, [10] :,,,,,,,, ( ), [6,11],,,,,, ( ), ( Ⅱ ),,, ( -6),,,,, -,, [2],, [12],, ( 2018 1 38 1,.2018, 38,.1 1 (2017 ),, :,, -:_@.;,, -:@.. ;,, -:@.;,, - :5588@126. [] ; ; ; :10.3969 /..1002-1949.2018.01.001 ( - ), ( ) ( ),,,, 25.2%, 2.7 [1],1% ~2% [2],, 6.9%, 90 11% 37%, 1 /4 [3] 12