21 8 11 1. 2. 3. SAC S113211312 (8621)6138297 wangxh@gjzq.com.cn SAC S113284232 (8621)6138251 xuwei1@gjzq.com.cn SAC S1132172 (8621)6138296 taojg@gjzq.com.cn 2.5% 16.8% 2.8% = 1 + * (1 + * ) - 1-1 - 此报告仅供国金证券施贞贞使用

1... 5 1.1... 5 1.2... 6 2... 7 2.1... 7 2.2... 9 2.3... 11 2.4... 12 3... 14 3.1... 14 3.2... 15 3.3... 17 4... 2 4.1... 2 4.2... 23 4.3... 26 5... 28 5.1... 28 5.2... 29 5.3... 37 1 GDP... 5 2 GDP... 5 3... 6 4 GDP... 6 5... 7 6 15-64 215... 8 7 15-44... 8 8 198-27... 8 9 199-27... 8 1... 9-2 -

11 15-64... 9 12... 9 13... 1 14... 1 15... 11 16... 11 17... 12 18... 13 19 GDP... 13 2... 14 21... 14 22... 15 23... 15 24... 16 25... 16 26... 18 27... 18 28... 18 29... 18 3... 19 31... 19 32... 19 33... 19 34 I... 19 35 II... 2 36... 21 37... 21 38... 21 39... 21 4... 21 41... 21 42... 22 43... 23 44... 23 45... 24 46... 24 47... 24 48... 24 49... 25-3 -

5... 25 51... 25 52... 25 53... 26 54... 27 55... 27 56 8... 27 57... 28 58... 29 59 28... 3 6 28... 3 61 29... 31 62 29... 31 63 29... 31 64 29... 31 65 28... 32 66 28... 32 67 29... 32 68... 32 69 29... 33 7... 33 71 29... 33 72 28... 33 73 9 /... 34 74... 34 75... 34 76... 35 77... 35 78... 36 79... 36 8... 36 81... 37-4 -

1 1.1 GDP 199-29 11.4 7.5 GDP 15.32 9 GDP 1.7 3.7 23-28 GDP 4 5.2 1 GDP 3,. 25,. 2,. 15,. 1,. 5,.. GDP 2 GDP 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. YOY YOY GDPYOY *.5%29 1996 1996 66.83% 25 54.12% 27 5.63% 17.8% 24.63% 15.36% 24.74% - 5 -

GDP 2 GDP 62.3% 8 48.4% 14 3.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 4 GDP 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. GDP 1.2 85% - 6 -

96-25 6 47% 96-5 3 1.6 96-5 2.5 1.43 5 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 2 2.1 15-64 214 6 25 15-64 1%214 15-64 15-44 15-44 27 28 9 25 65% 41-7 -

6 15-64 215 7 15-44 15 1 2. 1.5 66 64 2.5 2. 1.5 95 1. 62 1..5 9 6. 85 8 75.5. -.5 58 56 54 -.5-1. -1.5-2. -2.5 8 198-27 9 199-27 GDP 1964 197 197-1975 12.5 2.1 1964 1996 6 215 2-8 -

1 6. 55. 5. 45. 4. 35. C.Y.1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 GDP 11 15-64 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. 196 1) 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 8) 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 8) 1993 1996 1999 22 15-64( ) 46, 44, 42, 4, 38, 36, 34, 32, 3, 15-64 YOY 2.2 1 21.65 27 27.98 21 1 1.4 1.27 1.6.65 25-34 1.16 45.69 12-9 -

13 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.93 1.27.96 1.6.65.98.77.4.2 14 16-24 25-34 35-44 45.2.4.6.8 1 1.2 1.4 24 5 5 4 8 26% 6-1 -

15 7. 6. YOY( ) 3. 25. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 15. 1. 1. 5.. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28. 16 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 24 25 26 27 28 YOY YOY 2.3 4 5 4 4-11 -

17 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. -5. 2.4 GDP GDP 9% 5 GDP 9% 8% 1% GDP 9.8% 1.2% 3%-5% 5 CPI 3-5% PPI GDP CPI CPI 4% GDP 5% 2.5% 197-1975 GDP 2.1 GDP 197 6 9 3 1 5 2 78% 73% GDP.5 GDP 12.5 63% 4 91-4 - 12 -

.8 4 1 4 18 16.8% 2.8% 18 19 GDP 116. 114. 112. 11. 18. 16. 14. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 GDP YOY GDP YOY GDP YOY 199.84 21.1% 21.1% 17.5-13 -

2 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. YOY YOY 21 25. 2. 5 5 15. 1. 5.. YOY YOY YOY 3 3.1 = 1 + * (1 + * ) - 1-14 -

.5% 2.9% 5% 5% 2.9% 13% 16.8% 1 16.8% 22 5. 4. 3. 2. 23 8. 6. 4. 2.. 1.. 26 27 28-2. -4. 3.2 = / - 15 -

24 25-16 -

3.3 1963-24 25 1963-1975 1.4 1975-1993 1993 9 45 1963-1975.5 1975-1992 -.6 1992-2 1 1 1967-1973 1.2 1979-1982 1.7 U 1963-1983.2 1978-1992 1.2 1993 -.5 93 3.5 1.7 1.4 9 21 3.5 1.7 1.4-17 -

- 18-4 1975 67 25 26 27 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 5 1 15 2 25 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 ( ) 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ( ) 28 29 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 ( ) 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ( )

- 19-3 31 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ( ) 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 ( ) 32 33 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 ( ) 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 1 12 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 ( ) 34 I -5. -4. -3. -2. -1.. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

35 II 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. 4 4.1 2 9 9.4.2 9 9 9 95-99 3.8 9 2 9 9 22 6.6 97 2 4.8 2 2 22-29 4.3 > > - 2 -

- 21-36 37 5 1 15 2 25 1 2 3 4 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ( ) 5 1 15 2 25 5 1 15 2 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ( ) 38 39 5 1 15 2 25 5 1 15 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ( ) 5 1 15 2 25 2 4 6 8 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ( ) 4 41 5 1 15 2 25 1 2 3 4 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ( ) 5 1 15 2 25 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ( )

42 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1.1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 5 1.9.8 1.8.5 9 17174 3 5 1.9 2.5.8 1 9.7 3.6 34% 15% 44-22 -

43 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 5 5 2. 1.5 1..5. 44 4.2 8-23 -

24 4 2 46 48 2 1 47 49-52 45 46 35,. 2. 3,. 25,. 2,. 1.5 15,. 1,. 1. 5,...5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29. 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 -.5 47 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28-1. -2. -3. 48 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1.1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28-2. -3. -4. -5. - 24 -

49 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28-2. 5 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 51 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. -2.1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28-4. 52 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28-5. 27 77.6 6.7 17.75 29.7 2 1-2 - 25 -

53 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 4.3 9 5153 94 8 2.52. 2. 1.9 1.4.6.4 8 58 2.8% 16.2% -1.1% 38.9% 3.4% 29.6% - 26 -

54 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 55 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 56 8 6 5 4 3 2 1-27 -

57 5 5.1 5-28 -

58 5.2 8 7.7 11.1 17 8 6.4-29 -

2% 3% 59 28 6 28 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 7.7 11.1 17 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 3.64 5.5 6.4 7.73 8.91 11.2 14.3 9-12 15-2% 212 1% 3 3-4 - 3 -

61 29 62 29 12 1 96 97.81 12 1 95.4 13.78 8 8 6 53.1 6 4 4 37.1 2 2 63 29 64 29 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 18.9 135.7 18.4 25 2 15 1 5 12.2 16.8 19.95-31 -

65 28 66 28 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 786 861 76 664 246 857 8,176 19,313 1.2 1..8.6.4.2.67.54 1.1.64 1.. 7.7 15 23 33 67 29 68 35. 1.18 3. 1.17 25. 2. 15. 1. 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 5. 1.11. 1.1.17 / 22% 7% 2 27 8.3% 26% 2 45% 27 6% - 32 -

212 69 29 7 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 2.29.78.17 3% 9 1.78 / 2.5 / 2% 71 29 72 28 25 1 2216 9 2 8 7 64 ( ) 59 15 6 111 5 1 4 669 476 497 3 5 2 1 ( /) 74 58 53 24 94-33 -

73 9 / 25 2 2.5 15 / 1 5 1.78 74 75 35. 14. 3. 25. 12. 1. 2. 8. 15. 6. 1. 4. 5. 2... - 34 -

76 77 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 318 () 45 35 245 14 672 1475 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 1..9 1.2 1.1.6. - 35 -

78 79 8 4% 6% 35% 5% 55.98% 3% 25% 4% 35.54% 37.37% 42.9% 2% 15% 1% 5% 3% 2% 1% 22.8% % 25 26 27 28 29 21 1Q % 21 1Q - 36 -

5.3 81-37 -

(8621)-6138311 (861)-66215599-8832 (86755)-8285115 (8621)-61382 (861)-61382 (86755)-61382 researchsh@gjzq.com.cn researchbj@gjzq.com.cn researchsz@gjzq.com.cn 211 132 518 188 7 27 B 4 337 285-38 -